Category Archives: Interest Rates

Bookmark This Page …

September 8, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, Interest Rates, One Way Pockets, SLV, Solar Power

We’ll Be Back

No sooner had yesterday’s post been published, than a scant few hours later, we have this:

Silver, hero of the ‘new economy’.

What new economy?

That would be Solar Energy and Artificial Intelligence; two bubbles that have already popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Going a bit farther back to this post, a proposal that more distribution takes place on the way down, than up.

At least, that’s the way it was back in 1917, when this text was first published.

Is what we see here, touting a premise that’s already expired, not the same (distribution) script of a century ago?

Bookmark & Back

As was done with this post where the ‘Fed Pivot’ was discussed, now renamed to ‘rate cut’, the page was bookmarked and reviewed six months later.

That review was in the summer of last year!

Of course, there was no Fed Pivot (rate cut) to be found.

So, we’ll do the same here but with a caveat.

That is, silver may indeed rise in price for reasons discussed many times (miner implosion).

However, we’re really focused on that ‘new economy’.

Let’s see if six months from now, we’re all humming along in a Brave New World.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver & Solar

September 7, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, CDE, Federal Reserve, GORO, Great Depression 2.0, HL, Interest Rates, NEXA, PAAS, SLV, Solar Power, TLT, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Looks Like Demand Has Evaporated

Those who ‘drank the Kool-Aide’ about silver being bolstered to astronomical heights because, you know, ‘solar energy’, must be a little upset by now.

Just like the fabled ‘interest rate cut’, it’s not happening.

Although for interest rates, we’re just shy of two weeks away to find out; meanwhile, since the last report, the bond market has been bid up again, pushing rates down (again), so, we’ll see.

Back to silver.

We have yet another so-called ‘green energy’ company going bankrupt. That’s not so much news, except for this statement from the report (paraphrasing):

‘Solar demand has declined across the entire industry’

Um, it’s called an economic depression (not advice, not a recommendation).

While we’re talking collapse, let’s just throw in the Chat GPT (Artificial Intelligence) collapse as well, link here.

With all of that as the backdrop, let’s see what silver is up to these days.

Silver, SLV ETF, Weekly

A terminating wedge with an MACD crossover.

We’re at the spot with price could go either way. There has been no wedge breakout to the upside, or down.

If we do get an upside breakout, the position of the MACD is set-up for a potential bearish divergence.

Covered many times on this site; the possibility that precious metals could move higher as a result of the miners imploding.

Adding to that idea are the components of tracking SILJ, silver miner EFT. How many of these outfits have an actual P/E?

PAAS does not, HL … no, CDE … no, NEXA … no, GORO … no, and on it goes.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Market … Bombs

August 31, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Look Out Below

The last update on bonds, left us with this:

“At this juncture, it’s not unreasonable to say bonds (TLT) are at The Danger Point®”

It’s now five trading days later and five successive lower closes on TLT.

Wyckoff analysis provided the edge to surmise, the next probable direction for bonds was down.

Now that rates are back on the upswing, the interesting part (get your popcorn ready) is how, or what, the Fed is going to do at the next meeting … Tick, Tock. 🙂

Long Bond Proxy TLT, Daily

If bonds continue lower, it’s going to get more than a little interesting.

At the minimum, one would have advance warning, rates may not be lowered and/or, if they are, that move could be quickly reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Secret’ Lies With Bonds

August 25, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Prechter, TLT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

What Happens, When It Doesn’t Happen?

‘The truth has no defense against the man determined to believe a lie.’

Unknown

It’s been proven many times on this site and by others more notable (i.e. Prechter), the Fed is not a leader.

They are followers; essentially reacting (not responding) to what the bond market is telling them.

Done Deal? … Not Yet

The financial press acts like a rate cut is a done deal.

However, when looking at the chart (i.e., the real leader), long bond proxy TLT, it makes perfect sense the Fed would propose a cut at the September 17 – 18, meeting.

It’s what happens between now and then, that’s important.

For clues as to what that ‘then’ could be, we go to the bond market itself.

Long Bond Proxy, TLT, Daily

“What do you see?”

There’s a lot going on in this chart; the mark-up (below) is divided into two.

First, is the targeted measured move (that’s been met) out of the wedge formation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next, we’re also in a Wyckoff Up-Thrust condition which may have been tested on declining volume, this past week (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, it’s not unreasonable to say bonds (TLT) are at The Danger Point®

It would appear, the weight of a feather could move prices either way.

The interesting part will be what comes next; Sunday overnight Futures open, is about nine-hours away …

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil Bounce … Part II

August 23, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DRIP, DRIP-24-02, Federal Reserve, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, IWM, Oil, Oil & Gas, Russell 2000, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX, TZA, TZA-24-01, USO, XOP

Is This It?

We’ve gone form “Not Happening” to this morning’s action; ‘maybe it’s happening?’

As was done with Oil & Gas exploration XOP, we’ll now take a look at the oil patch itself and proxy, USO.

Oil tracking Fund, USO, Close

“What do you see?”

Marking up the chart.

We either have the ‘tradable bounce‘, or a potential contact point for the right-side channel line (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Fed announcement is just out, essentially accommodating a rate cut in September.

There was talk of some ‘cooling’ in the market (Ya think?).

With that, demand for oil seems like it would take a hit putting it lightly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning.

The market itself is telling us where to go and what to do.

The important item for the day; what is the market not doing? Specifically, the Semiconductors, SOXX.

The SOXX, has not made a new (daily) high (at least, not yet) after the Fed’s announcement; it can even be seen as the ‘proverbial gut-check’, a la David Weis.

With that, all other positions have been closed save the short in the semiconductors via inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Danger Ahead

The ‘rate cut’ has yet to happen and September is a long way away.

It can’t be re-iterated enough how dangerous is this environment; prices stretched via a narrative that’s false (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pulling Back … The Curtain

August 22, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX, ZeroHedge

The Truth Comes Out

Here’s a different take on Wall Street’s ‘outrage‘ over a year’s worth of fake jobs data.

No, the outrage is not about the data being fake, the outrage may be the curtain has been pulled back, allowing the public to see the truth.

That truth, discovered by Wyckoff back in 1902, was price action has no connection to so-called economic numbers.

In fact, he said (paraphrasing):

‘Dynamics were operating on prices that had no relation to any fundamentals.’

If market action really was based on fundamentals, an historic revelation of 818,000 fake jobs, would have sent the indexes into a frenzy, which did not happen.

In fact, nothing happened

Now, we have ‘The Street’ putting the pieces back together (trying to re-hypnotize their clientele) and come up with another fake narrative; surely, the Fed will lower rates this time … honest!

Well, let’s leave the clown show (for now) and get back to some real, reality, the A.I. bubble.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

What do you see?

If you’re a long-time visitor (welcome back), by now, your market recognition should be near instant.

That is, we have a Head & Shoulders pattern (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nothing is ever perfect in the markets, but this one is near textbook.

Positioning

Shorting this sector is more than a little dangerous.

Just take a look at the gaps, volatility, huge percentage swings up and down, with leveraged inverse fund SOXS.

With that said, and with the danger in mind, a potential low-risk short (via SOXS) was established early this session.

The trade is labeled, SOXS-24-13, with a stop at the day’s low of SOXS 20.63 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds In Trouble … Rates Higher?

August 17, 2024 By in Bonds, David Weis, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff

The Water’s Fine, Come On In

The financial press and their lackeys, expects the Fed to pull a rabbit out of a hat and lower rates.

The public’s perception seems to be:

‘Happy days are here again’, if rates get lowered, I’ll spend and spend. I can’t help myself, there is no end. So, get rates lowered, again.

Wyckoff warned about the financial press over a century ago. Since then, not much has changed.

In fact, it’s probably worse.

The public thinks rates are coming down. It’s the ‘credible threat’ as Uneducated Economist puts it. The Fed ‘threatens’ to lower rates, and it ‘happens’, sort of.

Actually, rates aren’t lower, but the market has distorted itself, as if they were.

So, let’s get past the narratives and go straight to the truth, price action in the bond market.

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly Close

As my mentor Daivd Weis used to say: “What do you see?”

I’ve already marked-up the chart and I see one Wyckoff Up-Thrust, reversal, after another (not advice, not a recommendation).

That, along with exhaustion spikes in Force Index, at or near significant reversals.

The ‘Scary’ Part

Wyckoff analysis is not only price action, it’s volume as well.

Look at the volume in TLT, over the past year.

Massive inflow and what has price done? It’s gone essentially nowhere.

Wyckoff called this ‘Effort vs. Reward’. Lots of effort with little (net) reward.

Add to that, a potential exhaustion spike in Force Index (far right side, purple circle).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Breakaway Gap … Biotech

August 7, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-16, SPBIO, TLT, XBI 2 Comments

‘Today Was The Day … ‘

If there was a day to attempt a close of the (August 2nd) gap in biotech (XBI), today was that day.

With the higher open, supposedly from an interest rate policy reversal in Japan, link here and here, there appeared to be plenty of upside momentum for higher prices.

It didn’t happen

Instead, XBI posted a new daily low, painting that gap as a downside breakaway (not advice, not a recommendation).

As noted in other updates, failed moves are the most telling, getting focused attention from ‘The Street’.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The breakaway is noted.

In addition, trendlines have been updated.

The market could somehow recover and close the gap.

However, with the poor bond auction, pointing to no rate cut or even a rate increase, probabilities suggest more downside for XBI (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds: Break Up, or Break Down?

July 5, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT

Into The Wedge

Bonds are in a ‘terminating wedge’.

So, what comes first? The market implodes with bonds (likely) moving higher?

Or … bonds break lower, icing on the cake for rate-hikes, then move higher as the market tanks … Or, behind door Number Three, they both melt down, together.

The least likely event is that nothing happens (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving on to the chart.

Bonds TLT, Monthly

As shown, the 40-year bond bull market ended during March of 2020.

That was the week of Friday 13th … you can’t make this stuff up (it’s all about the numbers).

One item above, favoring the downside more than up, the last major thrust was ‘downside pressure’.

That thrust has not yet been confirmed with more downside or negated with an upside breakout.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

June 16, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, Interest Rates, James Grant, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Can It Get Any More Stupid?

It’s been a while since rounding up The Usual Suspects.

However, like last time, the stupidity, misdirection, misinformation, outright falsehoods, overall grift and schtick, has got to the point where an update is needed.

We’ll start off by repeating No. 1 from the prior ‘suspects’ as it encompasses the whole genre of ‘non-thought’ by the public and financial press alike; readers of this post excepted, of course. 🙂

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the ’80s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

We’ll add in this updated post, James Grant, of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.

He second’s the motion: The 40-year bond bull market, is over. Period.

No 2. It has always been about the food supply.

Food is boring and gets no ‘clicks’ on my grifting ‘silver, gold stacking’ website or YouTube, so I ignore it.

After all, my business, is to get more business.

Just a reminder, if anyone really wants (inedible) gold or silver (cheap), this might be a way to get it.

No 3. The market has ‘thinned out’ to an incredible degree.

Now, instead of The Mag 7, there are only three and one of them, is a washed-up gaming stock.

How apropos, when considering the opening paragraphs about the overall public and financial press.

No 4. Is Artificial Intelligence just another lie?

Looks like according to this, it can’t be trusted. Who could have guessed?

I’m shocked! Shocked!

No 5. Ruh-Roh Scooby, fake meat’s bad for your health.

Didn’t see that one coming.

No 6. Well, there could be a new ‘scarient‘ in the works.

However, looking at price action of the biotech sector, far below its all-time highs, the market itself, is saying ‘No, not this time.’

No 7. Could the S&P make it to 6,300?

After all, it’s all about the numbers, right?

The S&P bottomed at 666.67 on 3/9/09.

Summary

If there ever was a time as Wyckoff said, to ‘completely ignore the financial press’, this may be that time.

He also stated, ‘reading price action is hard, taking literally decades and many losses to master’, a skill which is never really complete.

As the ‘About‘ section states, this site is one leader’s perspective on that action; presenting it, in a strategically cognizant form.

As far as is known, no other site is doing the same.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279