Category Archives: LABD

‘Read My Lips …’

July 16, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, Bonds, GOLD, IBB, LABD, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, Van Metre, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

3:21 p.m., EST

No More High Prices

This article, just out from ZeroHedge, says ‘consumers’ are in a revolt.

No more high prices.

Buying plans for the major items, housing, auto, appliances has declined dramatically.

One chart, linked here, shows consumer complaints about high prices are the most since the data started … 1961.

The reality is the retail consumer has come to the end of the rope.

To loosely quote Von Mises; ‘If you don’t voluntarily get your spending under control … the market will do it for you.’

To quote another financial source, Steven Van Metre; he has discussed for months, that high prices will be rejected. The economy will contract and bond prices will rise.

Bonds have indeed gone up in anticipation of contraction; or forecasting an outright collapse.

Throw into the mix that we’re going to have some kind of ‘fatality event’ this coming winter; for sure, there won’t be much demand for high priced items … just from the contraction of the population itself.

Which brings us to biotech (SPBIO).

SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:

The unmarked chart of inverse fund LABD is first (just to give perspective):

Next we’ll show that LABD has or is testing support and at the same time, confirming a trendline:

Biotech is the downside leader … sometimes tag-teaming with gold but for the most part it’s biotech.

Positioning:

It’s no secret I have positioned my firm short this sector in a big way since April of this year (not advice, not a recommendation).

That position has been adjusted over the months but has been steadily increased since the intermediate low on June 28th.

Since that low, the position has been increased six times (including yesterday) and may also be done so today.

Summary:

Once again, we’re heading into the weekend. The S&P (SPY) has just printed ‘out-side-down’.

Anyone still want to hold long the market?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Economic Collapse … The Model

July 15, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, Bonds, David Weis, IBB, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, SPBIO, TLT, ZeroHedge

1:44 p.m., EST

South Africa shows us how it’s done

‘Hey J.B., when’s the collapse?’

That’s a comment often seen on any number of Jerimiah Babe’s updates; openly mocking his doom and gloom assessment.

Whether he’s at the local homeless camp in Los Angeles, or in his home next to the golf course, the question remains the same;

‘J.B., When’s the collapse?’

Sometimes his response (if he’s at home) is to turn his head to the window and say “Have you looked outside?”

A good number of American’s have become so pathetically weak, ignorant, and just (to overuse the word) plain stupid, they expect to sit on their newly built patio deck (using last year’s stimmie check) and observe the fall of the U.S. from the comforts of their own back-yard.

Of course, there are some (including this author) who are first generation Americans. Their parents and grandparents emigrated (or escaped) from communist countries.

Those people do not have to ‘wake up’; they were never asleep.

Coming Attractions:

South Africa gives us the model for what’s in store … at least for sections of the U.S.; probably starting first with the blue sates (we’ll see).

You might say, it’s already happening in Portland.

One news item of note shown in this report from South Africa, is neighborhood patrols.

If that’s coming our way, then we’ll need to get outfitted (if not already). Here’s a good place to start.

All of which, brings us to the markets.

Bonds (TLT):

Yesterday’s update showed how the so-called ‘bloodbath‘ was actually a set-up to go long (not advice, not a recommendation).

It didn’t take long for bonds (TLT) to give a Weis method ‘buy signal’. That happened at the open today.

The bull move in bonds does not confirm the ‘re-opening’ hype. That in itself, should be all that’s needed to make decisions.

It is interesting to note; on sites like ZeroHedge, there’s no talk whatsoever that biotech has (already) reversed and is leading the way down.

As of this post, inverse biotech fund LABD, is up about 38%, from its lows of late June. It appears poised for yet another breakout; lower for SPBIO and higher for LABD.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Building The Case For Collapse

July 14, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, Dow 30, IBB, LABD, Livermore, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO

2:46 p.m., EST

Biotech SPBIO, Down

Inverse LABD, Up

Inverse biotech, LABD above, is confirming a pivot.

The magenta arrows show contact points morphing into a pivot that has two more contacts.

The new trendline was copied, then pasted to the far left of the chart.

It’s clear the new (pivot) trend is identical to the one created when LABD bottomed out this past February.

While the overall markets (S&P, Dow, COMPX) are still showing green, biotech looks like it has started the next leg down.

The original short position via LABD, has remained intact (not advice, not a recommendation) and has been increased five times (including today) since the beginning of this month.

In our view, biotech’s signaling the potential for a very dangerous situation.

Biotech’s headed down and we’re already short; not advice, not a recommendation..

As Livermore said a hundred years ago, ‘surprises tend to happen in the direction of trend.’

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Psychologically Unprepared

July 13, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, DIA, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, IBB, LABD, Northman Trader, Sven Henrich, Wyckoff 1 Comment

11:43 a.m., EST

When the break comes … it’s not coming back

Nearly 100-years ago, Wyckoff, stated:

‘If you can’t completely ignore the news and the financial press, you will never be successful in the markets’ (emphasis added).

In line with that, we have this: The very first sentence from this article out of barchart is questionable to say the least.

First:

There is no rapid ‘re-opening’. There never was. There is no ‘pent up’ demand.

Massive credit card usage shows the U.S. consumer has been decimated; using credit just to survive.

It should be (but somehow for some, it’s not) obvious we’re in a controlled demolition of the economy (including the food supply) on a world-wide scale.

Second:

Price increases are the result of supply chain (also, controlled demolition) shutdown not inflation.

Uneducated Economist has probably done the best job of ‘boots on the ground’ work to completely dispel the inflation false narrative.

He called the current and now waning lumber price spike two years ago. That’s how you know who to trust or believe. Take a look at their past analysis and see how it ‘aged’.

Third:

The U.S. population collectively, has never experienced real hardship. Those who made it through the Great Depression have all but died off.

There is no one around to give said population a swift kick in the pants and tell them to ‘suck it up’.

Northman Trader

Sven Henrich has come out with an excellent market update, linked here.

Towards the end of his analysis he states; ‘when the break comes, it will be quick, deep, keep going and most (if not nearly all) will be psychologically unprepared.’

Which brings us to biotech.

LABD Analysis:

Biotech SPBIO, is back as downside leader: Down just over -25%, from its highs in February, this year.

The daily chart of (inverse fund) LABD is below. The market itself is showing us it wants to follow the repeating pattern of trendlines (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the entire structure (from the February low) is actually a trading channel, it’s hard not to overuse the word ‘massive’.

Non Confirmation:

As of this post, the Dow, the S&P and the Composite are unchanged to slightly higher. Yet biotech SPBIO, is down -1.2%.

We won’t know until it’s all over … but it looks like biotech could somehow be the catalyst (along with the dollar and gold?) that precipitates the final reversal in the overall market.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Ripple Effect’

July 9, 2021 By in Banking, Biotech, BIS, Economic Ninja, IBB, LABD, Nissam Taleb, SPBIO, WFC

12:23 p.m., EST

Wells Fargo: Just the start?

The short answer is probably yes; but that’s only one problem.

Everyone’s subject to ‘normalcy bias‘ as Nissam Taleb puts it; Today’s like yesterday and tomorrow will be like today.

The news on Wells Fargo shows how quickly that can change.

Here’s a YouTube link; one man’s assessment on what happens now.

He proposes a ‘ripple effect’.

Events have been set in motion; not necessarily immediately but it has started nonetheless.

Market Positioning:

So, here we are going into the weekend.

Does anyone want to be long the market at this point (not advice, not a recommendation)?

There must be some that do as we’re still at elevated levels.

The trade approach implemented on this site (i.e., positioning short), takes into account and actually plans for a ‘disconnect’.

Only the inexperienced or naïve think (at this time in market history) they can get out as easily as they got in; i.e. day and swing trading.

Analysis: SPBIO (LABD):

We’ll start close in first and look at the hourly LABD:

Price action has come back to test the boundary (blue line).

As frustrating as it might seem (and it is), this is normal market behavior. The market itself has to define who is in control; bulls or bears.

It’s never ending.

That’s why a case has been built on the fundamental side; why biotech is subject to a massive implosion.

That backdrop, is being supported (little by little) with price action and thus, helps keep the mind focused.

If we pull out to the daily, we see the familiar trend-line(s):

We’re at another danger point. Price action can go either way.

If LABD pivots higher from here, it’s one more confirmation that we’re trending higher (SPBIO, lower) into our October-exit timeframe (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Order to Chaos … and Back

July 8, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, S&P, S&P 500, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY

10:49 a.m., EST

Biotech Gap Lower, Expected

Fibonacci Day 8

Last Stop Before Chaos?

This morning’s gap lower in SPBIO (LABD higher) was fully expected.

Expected as well, is the retrace in progress as of this post.

Today, is Fibonacci Day 8 from the LABD, pivot low of June 28th.

Biotech (SPBIO) has posted a fantastic time sequence on the daily as well as the weekly.

The gap-lower open in the S&P (more so for SOXX) has everyone sharpening their pencils; wondering, if ‘this is it?’.

It could be.

However, with attention now focused on potential downside, the clean Fibonacci sequences are likely to morph into chaotic movement.

The time for low-risk short positioning (not advice, not a recommendation) in this sector may be coming to an end.

Looking at inverse LABD, and using the Fibonacci retrace tool, it’s likely price action will retrace to at least the 38%, level.

At this point, it’s already close:

The inverse biotech LABD, 15-minute chart (above) shows we’re near the 38%, level.

After today, the expectation is for price action to become SPBIO downside chaotic … long enough to frustrate the late-comers to the sector.

After that, and however long that is, price action may once again become orderly.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Greed is Good’

July 7, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Positions, Project Stimulus, SPBIO, The Speck, Vernon Coleman

11:53 a.m., EST

Old Fashioned Greed Saves The Day?

After BA pilot fatalities were confirmed, at least one airline is backing off from insisting their pilots are injected.

Some adverse reactions linked above, occurred in-flight; the pilot was incapacitated.

“Is there a pilot on-board?”

That could become a frequent call through the cabin intercom in the months … even years to come.

The bottom line implications are obvious.

The response to ‘back-off’ probably has nothing to do with safety and more to do with protecting those executive stock options.

Which brings us to the markets.

Analysis: SPBIO (LABD)

The last update for biotech said it was ‘about to get real’. So, it has.

Looking at SPBIO inverse fund LABD, we have the familiar trend lines:

The market itself says it wants to follow this trend.

Pulling out to the weekly, we get what seems to be an incredible picture.

At the beginning of the trade, the short position in SPBIO, via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), had an exit time-frame during the second, or third week of October.

From an empirical and seasonal standpoint, that’s when on-going downtrends tend to reach their lows.

Already Baked In:

Various numbers are bandied about as to how many have been injected.

One estimate is 2-Billion, world-wide (Dr. Coleman if memory serves).

Total population at 7.9-Billion; 2-Billion, equates roughly to 25%

No matter what happens, de-population is already baked-in.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Now, It Gets Real

July 5, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Mike Yeadon, The Speck, Vernon Coleman, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Biotech reversal

No one is looking

The only way for price action to even hope of printing a Fibonacci series (daily chart), is when virtually no one is looking.

A quick YouTube search of “Biotech analysis“, turns up these links:

Best Biotech Growth Stock to Buy Now?? : Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Stock Analysis

3 Cheap Biotech Stocks With 100% Upside in 2021

Biotech analyst on CRISPR technology: Early data is very promising

Those three, are the most recent.

Looking at each, none of them even hint things could go wrong.

To be really cynical (and probably correct), the senior trading professionals may know this sector’s at risk of implosion.

They task junior employees to cover it; attempting to talk it up.

Analysis: SPBIO

Moving on to inverse fund LABD, we have Fibonacci correlation on two time frames:

In addition, from a Wyckoff standpoint, we’re in spring position on the weekly and daily time frames.

All of this points to high probability (not advice, not a recommendation) that biotech and specifically the weaker SPBIO, has pivoted to the downside (LABD higher).

Naming Names:

A couple of days ago, we had Dr. Yeadon (former Chief Scientist, Pfizer) absolutely grilling and eviscerating his interviewers, covered here.

Then, we have Dr. Coleman deciding to name, names.

Now, it’s getting real.

With this type of high-level pressure being applied from internationally known and respected (real) heroes, one has to think, it can’t be long before the lie is fully exposed; blowing the entire sector, wide open.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Downside Leaders: Gold, Biotech

July 2, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, GDX, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Holiday Turns, IBB, LABD, Prechter, SPBIO

11:39 a.m., EST

Biotech SPBIO, Down Over 21%

Miners GDX, Down Over 25%

As of about 10:50 a.m., EST, this is where we are from a sector standpoint.

The major indices are masking the potential the next leg down, has already started.

Yesterday’s update posted the link for ‘Holiday Turns’.

It’s a list of empirical observation that market tops (reversals) tend to occur during holiday weeks.

The weekly chart of biotech SPBIO (which has been inverted), shows a Fibonacci 21-weeks, from the all time high (low on the chart) to this week’s pivot:

Not only is SPBIO adhering to Fibonacci time prints on the weekly, it’s doing it on the daily as well.

It was a Fibonacci 34 days to complete the 38%, retrace.

It was a Fibonacci 5 days to complete the most recent reversal and test; culminating early this session.

As stated many times, the bottom may fall out of biotech.

Someone or something in the criminal cabal is going to let loose; fully exposing the real intent of the entire operation.

Recall Prechter’s admonition; ‘price leads the news’

If SPBIO reverses at week 21, with a decisive move lower, it may not be long before news precipitates out into the mainstream.

We’re now two-hours into the trading day.

It’s typical for SPBIO, to begin its erosion (discussed here). Let’s see if it can retrace the sharp down move from the early session.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Make-A-Wish’ … Tipping Point?

June 29, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Make-A-Wish, SPBIO

12:54 p.m., EST

News Hits Mainstream

Biotech Pivots

Operating with impunity, does have its limits.

However, those fully immersed in their evil, are not aware when sentiment changes.

How can they be?

They don’t have the discernment (a God-given gift), that lets them know when the jig is up.

The statements made by the organization’s CEO listed in the title block, sorry, you’ll have to do your own search, we’re not providing links for what should be obvious reasons, has instantly brought the entire ‘charitable foundation’ schtick under suspicion if not outright exposure.

The visceral response to those statements was immediate.

Complexion of the so called ‘charitable’ industries has forever changed.

Has sentiment for the biotech euthanasia project changed also?

As always, price action is the final arbiter. Anything can happen.

Chart Analysis: Biotech, SPBIO

At this juncture biotech and specifically SPBIO, has pivoted decisively to the downside.

As with yesterday’s update, the daily SPBIO chart is inverted and annotated:

The ‘repeating trendline’ concept that’s been discussed for nearly the entire seven week corrective period, is included above.

This time, it looks like we’ve reached the right-edge.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.