Category Archives: Neil McCoy-Ward

Think Like A ‘Criminal’

December 22, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Neil McCoy-Ward, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

How The Game Is Played

Watch the video linked here, to see how veteran trader Richie Naso describes trading false breakouts and breakdowns, showing how to position in the markets.

What he’s in effect describing is a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (false breakout) and a Wyckoff Spring (false breakdown).

Then he adds, you have to ‘think like a criminal’ to really understand who is doing what, to whom.

Note: No mention of the Fed, corporate earnings or any other ‘funny-mentals’ as Ed Seykota likes to call them.

Inflation Takes A Holiday

Not for long though.

Neil McCoy-Ward at this link, describes how inflation is coming back (time stamp 21:00).

The Imaginary Friend

We’ve had the markets launch on ‘Imaginary Rate Cuts’ as Uneducated Economist calls them, while in the background, more inflation (i.e., supply destruction) is in the works.

Which brings us to biotech and specifically, SPBIO, $SPSIBI, and XBI.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We may have just had the largest market fake-out (up-move) in history; time will tell.

With all of that manipulation, price action (for biotech, at least) has come back to near prior peaks … but not above.

As this post is being created (3:05 p.m., EST), XBI is starting to back off its intra-day highs.

Internalize It

Referring back to Undedicated Economist, the comment sections of his videos have the usual ‘So, what do I do?’.

His response is a good one. 

He says to ‘internalize’ the message he’s presenting. For example, in this case, it’s possibly the biggest market fake-out in history. Then he says you will ‘intuitively’ know what to do (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mind The (Miner) Gap

June 21, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Loeb, Neil McCoy-Ward, Positions, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

‘Straightforward’ … Sort Of

‘Real (market) opportunities are rare. When one is found, it must be used to its fullest extent’; Gerald M. Loeb, the late, and former Vice Chairman, of E.F. Hutton

What a refreshing quote that is, back in the day when we had ‘Chairmen.’.

So, are the Miners the Juniors GDXJ, that opportunity?

From a technical standpoint, there’s the bearish divergence on MACD when looking at the weekly. Then, we have Fibonacci correlation on the weekly as well (shown below).

The daily has the short entry signal given yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fundamentals Collapse

Next, we have industrial demand in collapse, not to mention the world economies. If industrial demand is collapsing for photovoltaic components (link here), then silver demand must be collapsing.

The ‘Gap’

The analysis was working fine in the pre-market for shorting the GDXJ (not advice, not a recommendation), but then at the open, there was the gap.

Let’s address that but first get started with the weekly chart of GDXJ

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly

The technical details are clear: Bearish divergence on MACD as well as Fibonacci time correlation.

The original Fibonacci 89-weeks was covered in this post.

Yesterday, there was a gap-lower open and price action kept posting lower.

Will this gap be filled? That’s the question.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

As the chart implies, was yesterday a breakaway gap?

Price action’s right at support … or slightly below, which technically put us in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

The ‘Probabilities’

Given the bearish overall condition of this sector both on a technical and fundamental basis, a gap-fill is unlikely … but one has to be prepared.

As stated in the last update, the short position via leveraged inverse JDST was increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

To account for possible gap closure on the inverse JDST, a soft stop (trader discretion) is at 6.80 and below, with an absolute hard stop (no excuses exit) at 6.38 (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s now, 20-minutes before the open.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dutch Masters

May 25, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, JDST, Neil McCoy-Ward, NVDA, SLV

More Than A Cigar

Dutch government puts the death knell on their economy … others will likely follow.

While the i-phone crowd is so easily distracted with AI and NVDA being their savior, back at the ranch, economies are being systematically destroyed.

Besides copper, one of the best indicators of robust economic activity is silver (SLV).

Since January, this site has highlighted the potential for a significant, sustained reversal in the precious metals; specifically, gold and silver.

Now, both the charts of GLD, and SLV, have weekly bearish MACD divergences (not shown); having just crossed the zero line with one more trading day to go.

Using a recent weekly bearish divergence as an example, natural gas (UNG), shows us the possibility; UNG is now down – 82%, (at the lows) in just 37-weeks.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

If gold and silver decline relentlessly from here, the sector most likely to take the biggest hit, is/are the ‘Juniors’, GDXJ.

Once the public figures out en masse, they’ve been fooled into ‘stacking’ instead of securing their food supply, precious metals are likely to accelerate to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, that public has to ‘wake up’, first 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold At The ‘Wedge’

May 20, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Genesis 41, GLD, JDST, Livermore, Michael Cowan, Neil McCoy-Ward, The Speck, Wyckoff 1 Comment

What Comes Next ?

Gold bulls could get cooked.

If gold does not go higher, it’s because of ‘manipulation’, right?

The typical YouTube gold grifter acts like manipulation is a new discovery.

It’s the ‘go-to’ excuse when their forecasts don’t work out.

Way back in the early 1900s, Wyckoff discovered the market has always been manipulated.

His insight was, it’s up to the speculator to figure out the objective of the manipulation and then act accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Livermore knew about manipulation and even engaged in it himself. He looked at things in a slightly different way; meaning, what is, not, what should.

A very key difference.

So, let’s look at what is happening with gold (GLD), and where it may head from here.

Gold GLD, Weekly

First, the chart from the April 9th, update.

Now, the updated chart.

It took gold (GLD) several weeks to labor higher on ever shortened thrusts before finally exhausting itself and rolling over into a reversal … where we are now.

Is price action hesitating before heading higher or is this a significant downside move in the making?

It probably won’t be long before we have the answer.

Junior Mining Sector GDXJ, Weekly

The gold mining indices GDX, and GDXJ, have already made their decision, reversing to the downside.

Note: Each reversal from a gold peak in the Junior Sector GDXJ below, is at significantly lower levels. This is not gold miner ‘bull market‘ behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s clear, the Junior Miners are in a bear market …

The GDXJ, is completing or has completed what is an obvious bear flag or terminating wedge.

Unless price action shows us differently, this is the current assessment; lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fundamentals

From a fundamental standpoint, where’s the demand for inedible (possibly fake) metal going to come from? The consumer’s already tapped-out and borrowing money just to buy the weekly groceries.

Maybe something else is going on.

Something else that’s causing precious metals miners to anticipate another huge (economic) move lower.

Possibly completely unrelated (in a way) to the mining sector … maybe yet another ‘Speck’ event, shown at time stamp 3:40, at this link.

At the same link, time stamp 5:25, we’re back to the food supply … yet again.

“And all countries came into Egypt to Joseph for to buy corn; because that the famine was so sore in all lands.”

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Beware … The Bond (Bull) Trap

April 2, 2023 By in Bonds, Neil McCoy-Ward, TLT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

… Almost There

The 40-year bull market in bonds, is over.

Until price action proves otherwise, each increase in bond price (decrease in rates) is going to be viewed on this site, from a bearish perspective.

That’s not to say bond prices won’t go higher. Counter-trend moves can be trading opportunities.

However, with market blow-ups, internet and broker outages the norm (think, SVB), taking a position against the overall main trend, is not something you’ll typically find presented on this site (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, let’s look at where the long-bond proxy TLT, is at this juncture.

Long Bond TLT, Daily

The chart may be hard to read but it shows the entire move lower from the all-time high posted on March 9th, of 2020.

The magenta arrow and bar is the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace.

That’s where we’re focused on the chart below, an expanded version of the daily.

The potential set-up is obvious.

If price action breaks out of the (orange) wedge pattern into a measured move, it would retrace to the Fibonacci 23.6%, level, while at the same time, getting itself into Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal) position.

The up-thrust would be created if/when price action pushes above the known resistance area shown as the horizontal blue line.

The Danger Point®

If price action moves into the set-up area as shown, TLT would be at The Danger Point®

This is an area of instability.

At that point, it does not take much force to move the action in either direction, hence the name.

Strategy

As this post is being created, a quick check of ZeroHedge turns up this article, just released.

The article makes the statement as well, the bond bull market is over and uses the 10-yr Treasury to show the upside (yield) breakout.

The bottom line:

We’re in a highly dynamic environment where the typical money manager, financial advisor (as reported by Neil McCoy-Ward) finds themselves “clueless”.

If ever there was a point in time to focus exclusively on what price action is telling us using Wyckoff analysis, this is the time (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Sunday futures open in about six hours.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s ‘Maginot Line’

April 1, 2023 By in 1929, GLD, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, Neil McCoy-Ward, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Strong Resistance, Built In

Unbeknownst to many, we’re witnessing a once-in-a-century opportunity and public service.

Those from the era of The Great Depression, are all gone now.

So, the same playbook can be run without anyone (alive) knowing we’ve been here before.

The public service presented to us, the massive on-going exposure of the financial charlatans and grifters.

You can be ‘certified’ and still be a certified (market) dolt.

Neil McCoy-Ward, points this out in his recent update linked here. Go to time stamp 8:40;

“Clueless” … “Completely Asleep”

Anyone who’s worked in the corporate world (in any sector), especially now, knows it’s near impossible to think or act independently.

So, it is with gold.

Gold & The Grifter Bandwagon

Where was everybody back in 2001, when gold was bottoming in the area of $270/oz., after a multi-decades long bear market (from 1980)?

The fact we have nothing but breathless panic from grifters and hangers-on, about rampant inflation should at least give one pause, we could be at a temporary or major reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

At least with the analysis below, there’s a decision point that will let us know if we’re due for another leg higher, or if there’s a Sovereign debt crisis about to break that would kick-off massive selling of all assets including gold.

Gold GLD, Weekly

As the title says, we’ve got something akin to a ‘Maginot Line’ for gold. What looks like insurmountable resistance that could still be breached … but for now, is holding.

With each (manufactured) crisis, gold’s momentum in the form of price and volume, is declining.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, the bulls (for now) are running out of steam.

The ‘terminating wedge’ in gold’s price action has already been discussed, link here.

Looking at the action in another light, we see a Wyckoff Up-Thrust in the works. Price action has penetrated a previous high and is currently struggling.

If gold (GLD) is able to significantly penetrate the resistance and hold, then we’re likely on to the hysterical predictions of the masses.

If not, and we get a reversal, it’s going to be big surprise for many. They’ll be stunned, unable to move and eventually provide more fuel for the downside as they sell in panic.

Downside Drivers

What could possibly be a downside driver for gold?

One has already been mentioned, a Sovereign debt crisis. It’s a likely event considering the record-pace rise for interest rates and subsequent bank failures.

Another is an ‘executive’ decision that gold ownership is outlawed. It’s happened in the past and those who got through that event are no longer with us.

Moving on, we’ve already been told there will be a ‘cyber-attack’.

What’s going to happen to gold, when there’s no electricity, fuel or food shipments?

As survivalist author Ron Foster says, in this interview, (time stamp 27:20), during a grid-down situation, he’s not giving up his food. He says, during such an event, precious metals are “meaningless”.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Fake Data, Fake Market, Real Price

December 17, 2022 By in CVNA, Great Depression, Neil McCoy-Ward, NFLX, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

‘Head Fake’ … 1-million Jobs

Within the mirage of fake data, one thing’s not fake, the price.

The latest revelation about fake data, comes at this link, telling us something we already knew; the jobs data is a complete mirage.

What must be over a year ago, Neil McCoy–Ward, presented a series whereby he reviewed several individual, personal diaries, from The Great Depression.

From that series, no-one (in the public) seemed to know the extent of unemployment until much later.

The numbers were ‘hidden’ back then, just like now; what a coincidence.

The search, and need for the ‘truth’, becomes more clear by the day. In the markets, truth is the price and price only.

Apparently driving it home, revelation that chief cook and (woke) bottle washer Netflix, drank the Kool-Aid and overestimated advertising demand.

The last update on NFLX, stated there may be a rally to test the breakdown. So far, it hasn’t happened.

Last Thursday’s – 8.6%, ‘air-pocket’, may have been the kick-off to much lower prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s take another look at the big picture on Netflix.

Netflix NFLX, Weekly

Very quickly we see the overall (impulsive) direction of the market is down.

In Wyckoff terms, there’s what he called ‘ease-of-movement’, to the downside.

Next, we have a possible Head & Shoulders, top.

If NFLX, reverses from here all the way down to the neckline (blue line), and if it breaks that line, then we target the 40-area; that’s a lot of ‘ifs’.

Moving in closer on the daily chart, is the following:

Netflix NFLX, Daily

The wedge breakdown is clear.

There was an attempt to rally, if you can call it that, on Friday. So far, no significant upside action.

The zoom area shows price action still below the lower wedge boundry.

Netflix is different from our other potential implosion, short candidate (which proved correct), Carvana, CVNA.

That difference, Carvana sold a product for which there was an actual need, i.e., transportation.

Summary

It’s been just over a year since the CVNA, ‘No P/E’, report.

Carvana’s a slow-motion train-wreck; down over -98%, as of Friday’s close.

Netflix?

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Silver Set-Up

October 5, 2022 By in Neil McCoy-Ward, Silver Collapse, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Texas Freeze, zsl 4 Comments

Repeating: Spring-To-Up-Thrust

Which comes first: Freezing and starving to death, or currency collapse?

Is that a hyperbolic statement?

Short answer, is no.

Here are at least two boots-on-the-ground sources that paint an incredibly bleak picture of what is to come in just weeks for Europe.

Links are here and here.

As with the Texas Freeze, the last thing on anybody’s mind was their “stack” of silver.

The humanitarian crisis is happening now, if not soon. Currency collapse may be months if not years away.

Which brings us to the precious metals and specifically silver, SLV.

The past few trading sessions have formed a repeating set-up: Spring-To-Up-Thrust.

Silver SLV, Daily

Note, the Pre-Market activity is far below yesterday’s high; the bulls may be trapped.

Typically the first order of business is an attempt to close the gap. If that happens, price action is then narrowing the risk on a short entry (not advice, not a recommendation).

One typical trading vehicle for shorting silver (other than the futures market) is 2X Inverse Fund ZSL.

Summary

The bulls think it’s finally the launch they have been waiting for … all these years.

It could be … anything can happen.

However, that does not take away from the fact we’ve got a trade set-up that may offer a low-risk short entry (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The China Set-Up … Short FXI

July 8, 2022 By in China, FXI, Neil McCoy-Ward, Wyckoff, YANG 2 Comments

From One High Probability, To Another

The last update’s high probability set-up was negated at the next session … only to morph into another high probability.

We’ll go straight to the FXI, leveraged inverse fund YANG.

FXI, Leveraged Inverse YANG, Hourly

It’s about twenty minutes after the open and YANG is trading at around, 11.15 – 11.16.

The chart below shows a Wyckoff spring set-up in progress.

What’s missing at this point, what’s to be expected during this session or next, is the test.

That same hourly chart is marked up below to show how that test may look with a pass or fail.

Risk on a position short FXI via YANG (not advice, not a recommendation) can be reduced by allowing YANG price action to retrace as much of the opening gap as possible.

It’s Friday and we’re heading into the weekend.

Does anyone really want to be positioned long? 🙂

It’s not as if anything bad is happening.

Nothing like British Members of Parliament (and the Prime Minister) turning in their resignations … all staged but that’s a whole other story.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dumpster Fire … Real Estate

June 30, 2022 By in Altos Research, DRV, DRV-22-04, IYR, Neil McCoy-Ward, Real Estate, Wyckoff

Price Reductions, Accelerating

From a technical perspective, it’s a disaster.

The last post showed price action had nowhere to go but down.

In that post, a trading channel was identified on the weekly chart.

Now, this week, with the action from the past three sessions and possibly a fourth (today), the channel is being confirmed.

Then, we have this:

Price Reductions Accelerating … At Record Pace

As if on cue, to support the assertion from Tuesday’s gold update; specifically:

“We should expect market events to reach never before seen extremes.”

We’re getting that same ‘never before extreme’, in real estate; presenting itself as accelerating price reductions.

At time stamp 5:20 at this link, we can see a graphical presentation of that collapse.

To borrow a quote from Dan at i-Allegedly: ‘Anyone who thinks price reductions are going to taper off, are kidding themselves’.

We’re just getting started.

Real Estate IYR, Daily Close

It’s about fifteen minutes before the open and IYR, is trading down nearly – 2%, in the pre-market.

That action confirms the declining channel shown.

As a result of this week’s apparent pivot (identified in the last post), a new channel appears to be emerging.

This one’s more aggressive.

If the new channel ‘sticks’, real estate trouble’s happening faster than most would expect.

Pulling out a little farther on the chart shows the downside potential.

Declining at nearly – 95%, annualized hardly seems possible.

Nearly everyone has been lulled to sleep with the orderly decline of the markets thus far.

In non-related but nevertheless connected event, the situation world-wide is moving faster, not slower.

It does not matter these events are completely fabricated (as was The Speck).

The effects of the fabrication are real.

Wyckoff Analysis Leads The Way

This week’s reversal off of last week’s trend lines confirms their existence.

Price action itself is leading the way; this is the crux of Wyckoff analysis.

The market itself defines what’s important.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279