Category Archives: S&P 500

Russell 2000 … Reversal Ready

July 1, 2025 By in IWM, Nasdaq, Positions, QQQ, Russell 2000, S&P 500, TSCO, TSCO-25-01, TZA, TZA-25-03, WMT, WMT-25-03

Looking for, New Daily Low

The Russell 2000 has been recovering (along with the rest of the major indices) from the lows posted on April 7th, and 9th, this year.

What the index has not done, unlike the Qs, and the S&P is post new-all-time highs.

At this juncture, tracking fund IWM, is at a Fibonacci 61.8%, retrace, and giving just a hint, it might be finished with further upside.

Russell 2000 ETF, IWM, Daily

As the chart notes, we’re in up-thrust ‘position’; meaning, there’s no new daily low to help confirm a potential reversal.

As presented many times in previous posts:

‘In the markets, you’re either early, or late’.

Upside risk (on a short) is set at last Friday’s IWM high; risk is low (but not zero).

With that said, a short position was opened (after-hours session, yesterday) in the IWM, via leveraged inverse fund TZA, trade TZA-25-03 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: There was no ‘new daily low’ in the IWM tracking fund to ‘confirm’.

However, in the pre-market, IWM is trading lower at 214.72, and threating to post a new daily low at 214.13.

Open Positions

At this juncture, 8:50 a.m., EST, open positions are as follows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Wal-Mart: WMT-25-03, Stop @ 98.16

Short Tractor Supply Co.: TSCO-25-01, Stop @ 52.93

Short IWM: TZA-25-03: Stop @ 11.68

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Good, Bad, & Ugly

March 29, 2025 By in Airlines, DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Three Amigos

The Good: Only the Senior Miners, GDX, have managed to claw their way past the highs set nearly five years ago in August of 2020.

The Bad: Junior Miners GDXJ, remain below that August ’20, level.

The Ugly: Silver Miners SILJ, are the worst, having their peak a bit later in February of 2021; they remain over -35%, below their highs.

The Market Rolls Over

Yesterday, Friday, was a down day for the Dow, S&P, The Qs, Transports, Airlines, Semis, nearly everyone.

For some of these indices, their all-time highs were posted months, if not years ago.

There may be some (bidding) ‘defensive’ action with gold (GLD) continuing higher; as said in earlier posts, the rest of the monetary metals are far below their highs.

Let’s look at the weakest; the silver miners, as they are likely going to be the ones most affected by an economic decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Miners, SILJ, Daily

We’re at an interesting spot.

Friday was a down day that pushed below existing support, shown in zoom area.

We have simultaneous action.

Once resistance was penetrated on March 18th, it could not hold. After eight trading days, on Friday, it posted lower on heavy volume.

However, we can see that SILJ, is now in (a minor) Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. So, the question is, what happens next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s … ‘Axis of Six’

March 27, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI 1 Comment

A Number Recurring Trough Time

You’ll have to judge for yourself if the chart with closing numbers and axis line, are of importance.

As a reminder, let’s not forget where the S&P bottomed, in 2009.

‘The S&P hit a low of 666, intraday’

With that, this update will be brief.

Biotech Sector Index, SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re using the actual index (SPBIO) and not the XBI, ETF, typically traded as a proxy.

After hours (as of 6:53 p.m., EST) has the ETF, XBI, trading unchanged to slightly lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Hang On To Your Shorts

March 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Weaker And Weaker, Still

Look! … Squirrel!

While everyone else is focused on a ‘tradable bounce’ in the S&P, with others in a freak-out on gold, back at the ranch, biotech has continued to sub-divide lower, getting weaker and weaker, still.

Note: All trades presented on this site during 2024 (ex: UNG), and 2025, have been to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The chart highlights the Fibonacci retrace levels.

A Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace is rare; markets typically like to go to 38.2%, or 50%.

If this retrace holds, it indicates significant weakness in the sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

As can been seen in the side-bar, current biotech short is LABD-25-03, with stop at yesterday’s LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Not shown on the chart, a trading channel that appears to be in-effect.

Update planned for that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Rout … Dead Ahead?

January 26, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, DRV, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Nasdaq, QQQ, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, SPY 1 Comment

Break, Test … and … Pause

Of course, in the markets, no one knows for sure.

However, what we do know as shown below, real estate IYR, has formed a terminating wedge.

In addition, it’s broken down from that wedge and is now testing the underside.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With the Dow, S&P, and QQQs, at or near all-time-highs, real estate’s a laggard; posting its all-time-high, years ago.

Last week was a narrow-range bar.

On a daily basis, price action attempted to move higher twice and has retreated (from that attempt) each time.

Then, The Fed

Let’s not forget we have a Fed meeting coming up on Tuesday and Wednesday, this week.

Popcorn at the ready.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trump Predicts ‘Depression’

January 1, 2025 By in Appalachia's Homestead, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Greater Depression, Jerimiah Babe, S&P, S&P 500, SPY Tags: , ,

So, Here We Are

Looks like it’s official with a statement of the obvious, link here.

This site’s first mention of ‘depression’ likelihood, was here, over three years ago.

From that, we have this on The Great Depression:

  1. Intentional destruction of the food supply
  2. Real unemployment numbers falsified
  3. People starved to death

Of course, others have been sounding the alarm.

First mention of Jerrimiah Babe, four years ago, link here. Appalachia’s Homestead, three-years ago, link here.

Brass Tacks

So, this is where it gets real.

Starting tomorrow, January 2nd, we may see what the New Year holds.

Will we get the ‘normal’ January effect bounce or are we going to decline straight-away (not advice, not a recommendation).

Results: 2024

For the year just-ended, Three Ten Trading, LLC executed a total of 453-trades.

Every single one, except for Nat Gas, UNG were to the short side.

For the year, the S&P 500, gained approximately 25%.

The corporate account (un-audited) for the same period, posted gains well into triple-digits.

It’s important to note, this gain was achieved going short (except as noted) in an overall rising market.

What happens if or when, that market trend turns lower?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Hartford ‘Wedge’

December 10, 2024 By in 2007 - 2008, HIG, Insurance, S&P 500, SPY Tags:

What Happened, Last Time?

The last time we had a major (sustained) economic melt-down, was 2007 – 2008.

The market (S&P) bottomed on March 9th, 2009, posting a low at 666.79.

During that collapse, Hartford Financial was one of the hardest hit.

It imploded, crashed, by -96.87%.

It’s important to note, HIG bottomed at 3.33, during the week-ending, 3/6/09; you can’t make this stuff up. 🙂

So, let’s take a look at what HIG, is doing now and if it’s at risk, yet again (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re looking at the long-term, the Quarterly Chart

Hartford Financial, HIG, Quarterly

With just a few weeks left in the Quarter, HIG is positing a reversal.

From a classical analysis standpoint, a reversal back into the wedge (and then upside test) would be a potential sell-signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Desperation Inflow, The ‘SPY’

December 25, 2023 By in Holiday Turns, Humbled Trader, NFLX, Richie Naso, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

Who’s left To Buy?

The massive, $21-Billion inflow to the S&P tracking fund SPY, may be signaling a historic ‘changing of hands’, indicating bulls are exhausted.

The coming days and weeks will reveal if that was indeed, the top.

Let’s not forget, if we’re rotating lower from here, the highs were posted during a holiday week, just before Christmas.

Holiday Turns

Markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a holiday week. Reference these links for ‘Holiday Turns’.

Bearish Divergences Everywhere

All over the market landscape, we have bearish MACD divergences in multiple timeframes; Monthly, Weekly and Daily … even on some 4-Hour charts.

With that in mind, let’s look at just one example: Netflix.

Netflix NFLX, Weekly

Be reminded, the U.S. consumer is maxed-out; they’re (likely) finished from a continuing spending perspective. Credit card balances at all-time highs.

With food prices pressing upward and availability a problem, one has to think, ‘You can’t eat Netflix’.

We have a ‘double’ bearish divergence. The daily chart (not shown) has a bearish divergence as well.

In addition, last Friday’s price action on the daily was ‘outside-down’, or ‘bearish engulfing candle’.

Premium or Discount

Using veteran trader Richie Naso’s terminology (see last post), is NFLX at a premium or discount?

Is price action set up to reverse or continue higher?

It’s likely we’re about to find out, starting tomorrow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Narrow ‘Breadth’ … What It Means

April 27, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AAPL, AMZN, Biotech, LABD, MSFT, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Maverick of Wall Street, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Record Extreme

One report covering the historic narrowing of the market is here.

Never before seen narrow breadth: What does it mean?

It means the market’s ‘keeping up appearances’ while the foundation’s been removed.

That way, the professionals can get out the door; sell or sell-short, funnel capital to the only three tickers left (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT), while the public looks at the SPY, and says ‘Where’s the collapse?’

Let the crowd focus on the S&P … probably the most computer controlled, AI driven, Machiavellian manipulated market in the world … but hey, I’ve got my i-phone trading app and I’m going to ‘Put it to the man’.

Meanwhile, downside leader biotech, inches lower.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

Let’s review where we are with SPBIO, with the full understanding that anything can happen.

For now, we’re heading lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s obvious. Biotech’s following a Fibonacci time sequence.

Let’s pull out to the larger weekly chart and see something really scary.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close

If we really are at the right side of the trading channel, it’s not looking good for the bulls.

Of course, it all makes sense.

The market’s at record breadth divergence. Banks are collapsing, Ukraine (fabricated, or not) coupled with trade wars, the consumer’s tapped-out (credit at maximum) and on it goes.

Positioning

Early this session, the short position in biotech (via LABD) was increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

The table below shows the trading (entry) activity during the on-going reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hard Stop: 16.79

The notation ‘LABD-23-05’, indicates this is the fifth trading campaign (or trade series) in LABD for the year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil … Gas … Gold & Newmont

January 21, 2023 By in Dow 30, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, IYR, Michael Cowan, NEM, Oil & Gas, Prechter, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, Twitter, XOM, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Markets, At Critical Juncture

Nemont Mining (NEM), Gold, and the Oil & Gas Sector are at a critical juncture.

The rest of the major indices, Dow, S&P, QQQs, real estate (IYR), and so on, are in a similar position.

For this update, we’ll focus on Newmont (NEM), as it’s the largest cap in the Senior Mining Sector GDX, and a general representative of the commodities markets.

Financial collapse is a process, not an event.

Newmont topped-out in April, of last year. Exxon, the proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, may have reached its highs this past November.

Where’s The Inflation?

As Michael Cowan has just reported, banks are absconding with depositor’s money under the guise of ‘bail-in’.

If the fiat cash is so worthless, why are banks seizing it?

As Robert Prechter Jr., said years ago, ‘all fiat cash ultimately goes to zero’; the end game (most likely) for the dollar. However, it could be months, years, or even a decade before that happens.

For right now, today, this minute, the data is showing us, the banks want the money; ‘Show me the money‘.

With that, let’s look at the non-existent ‘inflation’ in the mining sector.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

The first chart identifies the heavy volume and then test of wide price bars. This behavior is common in the markets; they tend to come back and test wide high-volume areas.

Next, we see there’s a terminating wedge developing as volume declines; the inference, is lack of significant commitment at these price levels.

We’ll get close-in on the wedge; last week printed a lower weekly low and closed lower for the week.

There’s no breakdown of the wedge … yet.

At this juncture, it’s up to the bulls to show they’re still in control.

Inflation vs. Scarcity

We have without a doubt, the effects of the event from the past three years gaining momentum. Whether or not those effects reach a peak this year, is unknown.

A lot of the mainstream and YouTuber’s alike talk about the upward move in gold as the result of ‘inflation’.

Here’s a little bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else; how about gold rising because the above mentioned ‘effects‘ are causing production volumes to decline?

Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.

Just to drive that idea home, the latest total gold production numbers, listed here.

Gold production for 2020 dropped -8.2%, from the year prior. Year 2021 was down -1%, from 2020.

From 2010 to 1019, gold production increased or was flat year over year … that is, until 2020.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279