Category Archives: $SPSIBI

Early Session: Biotech

September 19, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-12, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XBI

Repeating Pattern

The graphic at left, is a segment of biotech tracking ETF, XBI.

Note how it exhibits a repeating pattern of spring-to-up-thrust (S & U).

Today is also Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from the ‘S’ labeled low.

As seen with gold GLD, slightly higher, not correcting immediately, anything can happen.

However, with XBI, we’re in a multi-year downtrend that may be finishing its countertrend move, ready to up-thrust and reverse lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Debt … $1-Trillion

September 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-11, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XLF, ZeroHedge

When it Implodes

Is the bell ringing?

Is this it?

In the pre-market, SPY, DIA, XLF, QQQs, all-time highs.

Meanwhile, beneath the surface, it’s getting a bit ‘uncomfortable’.

One Trillion in margin debt as reported here and here.

The Ones To Watch

While all eyes are focused on the leaders (above), at least three markets are not participating:

Real Estate, IYR, Russell IWM, biotech, IBB, and XBI.

From a Wyckoff perspective, for short candidates, these are the ones to watch (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech, XBI

As stated in the prior update, XBI may have formed a triple top within and ‘up-thrust’, link here.

The obvious areas to watch for today’s session, are yesterday’s high and low.

A new high puts the up-thrust into question; new low, adds (a small) confirmation to reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Breakout or Breakdown … Biotech

September 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-25-11, MyStrategicForecast, Positions, QQQ, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, XBI 2 Comments

‘Winds of Change‘

The last update said, XBI presented the ‘best (index) short opportunity’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Is that still true?

With the SPY and Qs, still grinding higher, XBI is absent, having topped four days ago.

It’s not necessarily the top per se, but the XBI location in the overall market.

While the major indices are just now reaching all-time highs, biotech XBI, posted all-time highs years ago.

Four and a half years, to be more precise.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today’s action can be considered as a ‘test’ of the attempted (possibly failed) breakout.

There’s ‘evidence of a struggle’ and XBI is not (at this time) moving higher.

Adding to that, we have what’s been referred to as ‘Kabuki Theater‘ coming up at 2:00 p.m., EST, tomorrow).

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The Big One?

September 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, HOOD, IBB, Karen Kingston, LABD, LABD-25-10, Nasdaq, ORCL, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, XBI 3 Comments

Next Leg Lower

Unfortunately, the (mad scientist) graphic at left, is not too far removed from what’s really going on in biotech.

While the S&P, Nasdaq Qs, Gold Miners, Semiconductors, Financials, The HOOD, ORCL, and others, continue to make all-time highs, conspicuously absent is biotech, XBI and IBB.

Now, it appears that quietly, in the background, XBI is reversing to the downside.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

The up-thrust is there, but is a weak penetration of resistance.

Even so, on the ‘test’, volume contracted by -49.24%, when compared to volume on the upside penetration.

Until proven otherwise, this set-up appears to (currently) be the best short opportunity.

With that said, all other short positions have been closed to focus on biotech.

Leveraged inverse fund LABD is being used at this juncture: Trade LABD-25-10, with stop at the session low (not advice, not a reocmmendiaton).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … It’s Not a Bull Market

August 27, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Financial Sector, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI, XBI-25-03, XLF, XLF-25-06

The Big Picture

Each market session provides another data point, bull, bear, or congestion.

Yesterday’s position in XLF, was stopped out the same day with a minuscule loss.

That trade was an excellent example of operating at the market’s edge and maintaining discipline.

Another data point.

However, one market not making new highs, or threatening the current short position (yet), was biotech, XBI; short trade XBI-25-03.

So, let’s take a look at what’s really going on.

Biotech Sector SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re far away from all-time highs.

The Fibonacci retracements are shown.

At this point, we’re oscillating around the 23.6%, and in up-thrust condition.

The second chart zooms-in on the set-up.

Set-ups don’t guarantee anything.

They just mean the market has reached a point where risk could be at a minimum.

Bull or Bear

With the SPBIO (XBI as the proxy), we either have a breakout above resistance or an up-thrust as previously mentioned.

Until the market proves otherwise by making new daily highs, the condition continues to be traded as a potential (significant) downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Making (position) Adjustments

August 25, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DAL, DAL-25-03, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-12, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 4 Comments

SOXX Closed, DAL Closed XBI, Open

What we’re looking for from a short-side perspective, is ‘ease-of-movement’, downward.

Today, only one sector that’s currently being followed exhibited downside ease: Biotech, XBI.

To recap the situation with XBI, were in Wyckoff up-thrust position, first discussed here, then here and here.

Positioning

As stated in the header, SOXX-25-12, DAL-25-03, have been closed.

Biotech (short) XBI-25-03, opened with a stop at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will The SOXX, Unravel?

August 22, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 1987, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, Richie Naso, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-12, SPBIO, XBI, XBI-25-02 3 Comments

Right Out of Naso’s Playbook

‘Think like a criminal’, is one piece of advice from trading legend Richie Naso.

He also describes the algorithms as not caring about profit or loss, but ‘liquidity’ and ‘volatility’.

This morning’s session had plenty of both.

Looking at SOXX price action, launching higher on the Fed speech, it’s clear what the algorithms were attempting.

That is, hit the stops hiding at ‘technical areas’, as Naso calls them.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

Price action went to where stops were hiding or where the inexperienced traders panicked.

Under such conditions, what’s the appropriate action?

Sell, or sell short (not advice, not a recommendation).

From this site’s perspective that’s exactly what happened.

Currently short the SOXX, as trade SOXX-25-12, with the stop at (or to be) the session high.

Which One to Pick?

As the last update said, the stop on biotech XBI-25-02, was at the August 18th high. Obviously that position was stopped out.

The question is, why not re-enter again short?

The answer: XBI made new daily highs where the SOXX did not. SOXX did not print above its high set on August 14th.

Therefore, at this juncture, SOXX is posting more relative weakness than XBI.

The market itself directs the trading action.

Revisiting August 1987

One last thought: August 25th, 1987, was the date of the all-time highs back then. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Closes The Gap

August 21, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI, XBI-25-02 2 Comments

Now, What?

Today’s higher action in XBI, closed the gap opened on the 19th.

Technically speaking, for short trade, XBI-25-02, the original stop has not been moved (still at the 8/18th, high).

The expectation from this site’s perspective, we’re in an up-thrust condition that may ultimately resolve itself downward (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, we’re about to find out.

Bitoech XBI, Daily Close

At this juncture, downward thrust energy (Force Index) is larger than upward.

After hours, has the XBI, trading slightly higher.

So, we’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow is Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from the August 18th, high. There could be a slight opening ‘pop’, then reversal.

If not, then time to exit (not advice, not a recommendiaotn).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech …

August 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-25-02

Nascent Reversal

Long or short, this is the spot where anything can happen.

Friday’s action in XBI, made it Fibonacci 89 Days, from the April 9th, lows.

Today printed higher, reversed (slightly), closing lower, making this Fibonacci Week 21 (-1) from the April lows.

Trading Coach … Livermore

Getting back to trading insights from Livermore (last update), he stresses the adage, ‘If it meets requirements, then execute’.

At this point that’s the case for biotech, XBI.

Biotech Short (again)

We’re in Up-Thrust position (above resistance) have met a Fibonacci count, then printed a reversal bar; the trading action is/was to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade: XBI-25-02, stop in the vicinity of today’s high (not advice, not are recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech in (short) Range

August 13, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-25-01

Pushes Past Resistance

Will biotech XBI, be ‘picked-off’ by the shorts?

Three months ago, was this post; identifying a potential area for reversal.

Looking for the set-up, a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’, more commonly known as false breakout.

Biotech XBI, Daily

After waiting, watching price action on a daily basis, almost getting sucked-in (short) too early, we now have a potential false breakout.

The penetration of resistance is not quite what was expected (meaning, a much larger thrust) and there may be more upside to come.

With that said, as can be seen from the side-bar, an initial short was opened today, XBI-25-01 (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279