Our ‘parabolic’ report on MRNA, was posted before the open, August 10th.
That post included the following summary:
‘This is the type of parabolic rise (and blow-off top) typically seen in commodities.’
Then, about seven minutes after the open, MRNA peaked and reversed into a two-day collapse over -25%.
Down-thrust energy, the amount of downward force in price action, was literally off the chart; the strongest ever recorded since MRNA, started trading in December of 2018.
Price action leads the news. This case was no exception.
This report, just out on ZeroHedge shows there’s a half-hearted attempt to draw attention to a so-called ‘rare’ side effect.
Even so, the insiders probably figure the jig is up and they’re bailing out.
The biotech sector (SPBIO) continues its bear market decline. Yesterday, it closed down over -32%, from its February 2021, highs.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If the mainstream media is good for anything, it’s the ability to keep the herd, the retail, (Robinhood kids, et al.) fully distracted until it’s absolutely too late for action.
Even though this report from ZeroHedge gives all kinds of ‘signals’ saying we’re not there yet; It even goes as far as showing there’s no yield curve inversion. Of course that means ‘no risk’ of bear market.
Then going on to say, ‘None of these measures indicate a bear market is near’. I mean, you can’t make this stuff up.
What’s the table above (yesterday’s close) say about what’s really going on?
At this point it’s obvious the media are not going to discuss the on-going bear market in biotech, SPBIO.
Doing so, would require some kind of investigation as to why? That would open Pandora’s box and have everyone digging for truth … something to be avoided (censured) at all costs.
Amateurs always want (need) to know why.
Livermore was never concerned with the why. He looked for ‘what’. What is the price action doing now or what is it likely to do.
As Wyckoff said, ‘the why always comes out later … after the fact’
‘Why’ is a useless trading strategy.
However, in the case of biotech, we can take a good guess what the ‘why’ is all about.
Fall and Winter are very close now. As this interview with Stew Peters reveals, Fall and Winter are when we get the real picture of ‘side effects’.
Biotech is ahead of the pack on the downside and for good reason.
Positioning:
Positions have not changed except for additions of LABD as SPBIO declines and LABD heads higher (not advice, not a recommendation).
As a reminder, this site’s not interested in day trading or even swing trading unless that’s all the market offers.
No, we’re interested in positioning strategically.
This type of trading is modeled after the host’s twenty-four years of experience with aircraft flight test and certification.
A typical project would take five to seven years to complete; have a near infinite number of complex stages along the way with each one a profession unto itself.
At this juncture, biotech may be poised for the largest implosion ever seen in market history.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
‘The real money’s going to be made, after the plug is pulled’
Well, that’s close.
Actually, the real money’s made on the way down … when the plug is pulled … not after.
‘After’, is when you take the huge gains from the short side and then allocate that to areas which stand to recover … or at least have a good chance of recovery.
It’s a two-step process:
Nobody demonstrated that better than Livermore himself during the panic of 1907.
It’s probably no surprise that panic was potentially a fabricated event (sound familiar?).
Titanic engineering design approval: July of 1908.
Construction begins: March 1909.
Sea trials: Early April, 1912
Titanic ‘sinks’: April 15, 1912.
April 15th, is tax day … coincidence … no.
Whether or not there really is a ship (or which one is) at the bottom of the Atlantic, is immaterial.
What’s important, was that it all may have been a controlled demolition of the financial system so that it cold be ‘reset’ to allow fractional reserve banking.
The fly in the ointment? Unexpectedly, Livermore owned the market at the bottom. He could have single handedly destroyed the financial system by executing more short selling.
That’s when J.P. Morgan (possibly chief cook and bottle washer for the ‘reset’) called him in to appeal to Livermore’s ‘patriotism’; to not destroy the market. You can’t make this stuff up.
So, it’s time to reset the system every hundred years or so.
Just like it’s time to have a medical ‘incident’ and reduce the population every hundred years or so:
How does this relate to the markets? For this update, the preamble above, brings us to gold (GLD):
Gold (GLD) Analysis:
It’s no secret, price action in GLD and the miners (GDX, GDXJ), has been analyzed for months as bearish.
The weekly chart shows GLD, right at the edge of a terminating wedge; about to break lower:
The measured move … to around GLD ~ 120, is exactly at the Fibonacci 161.8%, projection (not shown).
If there’s a wedge breakdown, we have two separate measurement techniques targeting the same area.
Gold (GLD) did break lower but has not progressed to the measured move. Latest update is here and here.
The next chess move, is probably not going to be dollar destruction.
No. The next move is likely to be as stated before, supply chain shut-down with the objective of ‘starve them out’.
Correct but not the way the media plays it.
They attempt to tie it to ‘climate change‘. Yes, the climate is changing but the earth is getting colder, not warmer. Crop failures are the result.
Couple that with intentional weather modification (weaponization), controlled demolition of the supply chain and voila! Food becomes scarce or more expensive or both.
In a prior update, when that statement was made, it may have sounded extreme. Now, we have this interview and time stamp (8:11), where we get the exact same thing.
Take Action:
This article, just out on ZeroHege is a good one-stop shop to start or continue being out in front of ‘events’.
Here’s a brief video of one man’s action, in action:
Four hens, a rooster, in an urban setting (houses on three sides).
The rooster was not part of the plan. If you look closely, you can see his ‘No Crow‘ collar … it works most of the time.
He was unexpected but is now seen as an asset.
He keeps the hens under control (otherwise, they fight) and gets them all back in the coop at night.
Is it a hassle: Yes.
Is it messy: Yes.
Will the neighbors not care about the crowing, be clamoring (and paying with cash, gold, silver) for eggs and chicks three months from now, if/when food shipments are cut off? Probably, yes
Mass recognition of potential famine to come in the spring when the farmers do not have enough ‘inputs’ (seed, fertilizer) for a viable crop.
Don’t forget about no spare parts for farm equipment.
Scaboo
The rooster, “Scaboo” was such a happy camper that he was crowing all day.
He was moved outside of town to a more rural location.
We still have access to him if needed for fertilized eggs.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
excuse me but people post about the WEF here all the time, are you new?play_arrow7play_arrow
Not Your Father’s ZH34 minutes ago (Edited)
Yeah, right? I and others have posted many times about the not-so-Great Reset, Cyber Polygon, Event 201, Herr Unkle Klaus Schwab’s Chez Davos broiled insect loaf under polystyrene, owning nothing and being thrilled, etc. Whitney Webb has been one of the best reporters on it, Catherine Austin Fitts, many more. Lew Rockwell is the single best place to start from, as it links to all of this. Speaking of which: 7.9 Billion Lives in the Balance
It’s obvious those monitoring and commenting on ZeroHedge are wide awake.
Once again, all of this brings us back to biotech.
Biotech, SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:
We’re going to start with an unmarked chart of inverse fund LABD, on the weekly scale:
It may not be obvious at first, but the chart can be separated in two as shown:
That inflection point, the week of May 14th, ’21, is where the bulls attempted a reversal and the bears (of SPBIO) are going to take control.
Notice that before May 14th, price action is wide and choppy. Afterwards, it settles down into a clean and rythmic flow.
From that inflection, LABD price corrected downward a Fibonacci 8 weeks before pivoting to the upside (SPBIO lower).
Now, we can draw a trading channel:
For months, the anticipated low of SPBIO, high for the LABD trade (not advice, not a recommendation) was/is planned to be the third week in October.
As price action progresses, and taking a cue from Robert Prechter (about trading for large gains), one needs to be prepared for SPBIO to just keep on going lower (LABD higher); even through October if that’s the case.
Summary:
The ZeroHedge article and especially the comments, show we’re in the middle of the largest fraud in world history.
It’s disappointing but not surprising, ‘certified’ management agencies (and I personally monitor quite a few) are saying nothing (publicly) about what’s really going on.
Their websites still show the ubiquitous sailboat with the retired couple looking out wistfully into the (chem-trailed) sunset.
Trading For Your Life:
With each passing day, it’s becoming obvious self-employment (like trading) may be the only way out. The big corporations are likely to mandate (illegally) en-masse, that everyone’s injected.
The plan to destroy the smaller businesses looks to be moving forward via more ‘lockdowns’.
Some states (like Texas) may somehow be separate. So far, so good.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
This article, just out from ZeroHedge, says ‘consumers’ are in a revolt.
No more high prices.
Buying plans for the major items, housing, auto, appliances has declined dramatically.
One chart, linked here, shows consumer complaints about high prices are the most since the data started … 1961.
The reality is the retail consumer has come to the end of the rope.
To loosely quote Von Mises; ‘If you don’t voluntarily get your spending under control … the market will do it for you.’
To quote another financial source, Steven Van Metre; he has discussed for months, that high prices will be rejected. The economy will contract and bond prices will rise.
Bonds have indeed gone up in anticipation of contraction; or forecasting an outright collapse.
Throw into the mix that we’re going to have some kind of ‘fatality event’ this coming winter; for sure, there won’t be much demand for high priced items … just from the contraction of the population itself.
Which brings us to biotech (SPBIO).
SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:
The unmarked chart of inverse fund LABD is first (just to give perspective):
Next we’ll show that LABD has or is testing support and at the same time, confirming a trendline:
Biotech is the downside leader … sometimes tag-teaming with gold but for the most part it’s biotech.
Positioning:
It’s no secret I have positioned my firm short this sector in a big way since April of this year (not advice, not a recommendation).
That position has been adjusted over the months but has been steadily increased since the intermediate low on June 28th.
Since that low, the position has been increased six times (including yesterday) and may also be done so today.
Summary:
Once again, we’re heading into the weekend. The S&P (SPY) has just printed ‘out-side-down’.
Anyone still want to hold long the market?
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
That’s a comment often seen on any number of Jerimiah Babe’s updates; openly mocking his doom and gloom assessment.
Whether he’s at the local homeless camp in Los Angeles, or in his home next to the golf course, the question remains the same;
‘J.B., When’s the collapse?’
Sometimes his response (if he’s at home) is to turn his head to the window and say “Have you looked outside?”
A good number of American’s have become so pathetically weak, ignorant, and just (to overuse the word) plain stupid, they expect to sit on their newly built patio deck (using last year’s stimmie check) and observe the fall of the U.S. from the comforts of their own back-yard.
Of course, there are some (including this author) who are first generation Americans. Their parents and grandparents emigrated (or escaped) from communist countries.
Those people do not have to ‘wake up’; they were never asleep.
Coming Attractions:
South Africa gives us the model for what’s in store … at least for sections of the U.S.; probably starting first with the blue sates (we’ll see).
You might say, it’s already happening in Portland.
Yesterday’s update showed how the so-called ‘bloodbath‘ was actually a set-up to go long (not advice, not a recommendation).
It didn’t take long for bonds (TLT) to give a Weis method ‘buy signal’. That happened at the open today.
The bull move in bonds does not confirm the ‘re-opening’ hype. That in itself, should be all that’s needed to make decisions.
It is interesting to note; on sites like ZeroHedge, there’s no talk whatsoever that biotech has (already) reversed and is leading the way down.
As of this post, inverse biotech fund LABD, is up about 38%, from its lows of late June. It appears poised for yet another breakout; lower for SPBIO and higher for LABD.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The last update on SOXX, noted one thing missing was a new daily low confirming the reversal. About 15-minutes after that post, SOXX printed a new daily low.
Now, we’re in an underside test of the breakdown.
The daily close chart (above) shows price action coming back to the underside. This is how the market squeezes out risk of a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).
Yesterday’s update had a link to ZeroHedge about how the market ‘has to’ move higher this week; the ‘selling’ is finished.
A healthy way to view this type of information is to be aware of the source.
If it’s a major retail brokerage or trading firm, their own (internal) market stance is likely to be completely opposite their financial press release.
Let’s see what happens next.
We’re not looking to short the SOXX but it’s still an educational exercise to monitor the sector.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Here’s a link to a Zerohedge report letting us know why the market ‘has to cover shorts‘ and move higher this coming week.
The reason retail money managers, pundits and the financial press don’t focus on price action and volume (a life-long pursuit of mastery), is because it’s hard.
As the late David Weis said:
‘There’s a lot to this game of reading the chart.’
Just as Steven Van Metre has drilled down into perfecting his style of bond ‘macro’ management, so too has this site drilled down into the nuance of volume and price action.
That in turn, is coupled with the externals (the ‘macro’, if you will) of sentiment and fundamentals.
It’s more art and intuition than science.
That’s a good thing.
The pointy headed ‘quants’, can’t quantify intuition.
The market (which is thinning out as we speak) may indeed rise this coming week. However, if it does, it won’t be because it ‘has’ to.
No. 2
The ‘knock at the door’
Awaken With JP has a humorous but educational approach on how to help those who want to ‘help’ us.
At this point in time and with global shutdowns on the horizon again, maybe we just brew our own.
I have purchased the exact kit shown in the link.
Report on the results to follow.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
In the entire history of the market, that’s never happened before, either.
Biotech Backdrop:
We’ve got empirical and anecdotal evidence pointing to the real objective of the ‘experiment’; now, we’re fortunate enough to have a data analyst doing what the medical establishment used to do.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 