Category Archives: zsl

Silver … Slammed !!!

November 16, 2024 By in Dollar, Gold & Silver, Great Depression 2.0, SLV, UUP, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge, zsl Tags: , , 1 Comment

What’s Next?

We can see how the typical ‘investor’ would be angry; having believed the hype about silver’s imminent ‘hyperinflation’ launch.

Pontificating hype like, silver’s going to ‘catch up’ with gold, ‘go along for the ride’, ‘close the gap’, massive ‘physical demand’.

Well, this so–called ‘launch’ (so far), is not only not happening, but appears to be in a bearish divergence downside reversal … What???

Setting The Stage

From the recent high set on October 22-nd, to the close on Friday, Silver (SLV) is down -13.3%, a decent hit, but not quite a wipe-out, yet.

Putting that brief opportunity in perspective, during the same period 2X Inverse Fund ZSL, is up over 31.5%.

For a clue on what might be coming next, we’ll go to this anecdote, link here.

The so-called ‘environmentalists’ don’t even believe their own hype.

Not only that, if we’re already in an economic collapse, then silver, an industrial metal, is subject to the same forces.

Pulling Back The Curtain

If or when the new administration takes office (January 20th, is a long way away), we can expect a lot of truth (but not all of it) to come out.

That’s already starting, with the blow-up in biotech.

Random Thought: Wasn’t the dollar supposed to collapse by now? But, I digress.

Lets’ get back to silver (SLV), and what the price action is telling us.

Silver SLV, Weekly

With the situation below, what’s the most likely event for the coming week?

We’ve had four down-weeks in a row. Price action’s at the wedge boundary (blue line) and minor support (black dashed line).

Last week was a narrow range bar with less overall volume than the week prior.

Therefore, the most likely event, is an attempt to retrace the prior four weeks of down action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part IV

May 3, 2024 By in David Weis, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, SLV, Wyckoff, zsl

Below Resistance

When the upside comes to a halt, it’s the ‘evil manipulator’s’ fault.

At least, that’s the common lament from our friends and pundits, alike. 🙂

Just a reminder, the markets have always been manipulated.

Back in the day, Wyckoff understood this. He sought to find out through price action, the desired (market) outcome of those ‘manipulators’.

By using his technique and reading the tape, the most probable direction for silver (SLV) was either sideways congestion or downside reversal.

The last update, link here, had this to say:

“If we’re in an up-thrust about, to reverse lower or consolidate, this is the type of market behavior to expect (not advice, not a recommendation).”

From then, we see SLV has moved lower.

Silver SLV, Weekly

Can reversals themselves, be reversed?

Could SLV, somehow gain traction and move decidedly higher? As David Weis used to say, “Anything can happen”.

However, at this juncture, we have SLV closing lower the past two weeks. Volume was steady and elevated, indicating downside pressure.

Separately, the miners are struggling (especially the Juniors GDXJ) at resistance.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top?

April 4, 2024 By in David Weis, Ed Seykota, Gold & Silver, Silver Collapse, SLV, Wyckoff, zsl 4 Comments

Know Your Market

There’s been something wrong with the precious metal’s, gold and silver, for years.

Gold and silver used to move essentially in tandem, over the long term; not anymore.

This link shows there’s a huge divergence in the correlation between the two metals. Gold has launched higher, while silver has lagged.

Right around June of 2020, the correlation began to break down. What else was going on (or being ‘rolled out’) around June of 2020?

Recall, silver’s primarily an industrial metal; affected much more (than gold) by manufacturing demand.

Strategy First

Shown by the market itself, direct correlation between silver and gold no longer applies (or has somehow changed into a new construct), silver’s not confirming the ‘inflation’ shtick, possibly influenced more by industrial demand.

Thus, we have the following.

Silver SLV, Weekly

Just listening to what the market’s telling us, it says, when SLV, reaches a top and inflection point (to reverse lower), it tends to print heavy upside volume bar(s).

Looking at the chart, price action’s all over the place. Wide bars, volume spikes, the gamut.

Markets like this are unstable and usually can’t mount a sustained move in either direction.

Typically, if there’s going to be a breakout (or breakdown), price action tends to get tight, or get itself into a ‘coil’.

Even so, we need to account for the market itself.

Having traded silver futures contracts during the last run up and meltdown from 2011 – 2014, the silver market is thin and likes to ‘spike’.

That (spike) behavior is confirmed by Ed Seykota in Market Wizards and David Wies in his (formerly) daily market updates.

We may be at the beginning of a set-up for a Wyckoff up-thrust (above resistance) and then reversal.

A possible measured move for SLV (to be covered in another update), puts the tracking ETF, right around 25.60, about 2-pts. from where we are now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Turnaround Tuesday?

November 21, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, Real Estate, SLV, SPBIO, SRS-23-04, XBI, zsl, ZSL-23-01 1 Comment

Possible Reversal During The Holiday Week

While no-one’s looking, markets tend to reverse.

Typically, that happens before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Perhaps, the most famous of these was the day after Labor Day Weekend, September 3rd, 1929, the all-time high up to that point.

Adding substance to the assertion, the all-time high (thus far) for the S&P 500, was January 4th, 2022, with the closing high the day before.

So, here we are in the midst of the Thanksgiving holiday week. Is the market going to reverse?

Biotech SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI, Daily

The November 3rd, update showed the target area for biotech ($SPSIBI).

Price action decisively penetrated that area yesterday and then immediately started to retrace.

As of this post (10:12 a.m., EST), price action has printed a new daily low.

Positioning

As stated in this update, the coming week was likely to see adjustments to open short positions.

The Real Estate (SRS-23-04) and Silver (ZSL-23-01) shorts have been closed, with the biotech (LABD-23-13) position increased (not advice, not a recommendation.

The Hard Stop for LABD-23-13, is LABD 17.62 but will likely be moved to the session low, currently LABD 18.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Going Short on ‘Corrective Waves’

November 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, SLV, SPBIO, SRS, SRS-23-04, XBI, ZeroHedge, zsl, ZSL-23-01 2 Comments

All The Same ‘Look’

Did we just have the largest bull trap in market history?

Now, after the bulls (may) have been caught off-guard, we have this; the specter of ‘deflation‘ and demand destruction.

Last Tuesday’s CPI report provided a backdrop for the continued squeeze higher.

Over the past several weeks, at least three markets have developed the same (bearish) ‘look’.

They’re posting corrective ‘a-b-c’ price action, going against the main trend.

SLV, IYR & XBI, Weekly

Take a look, all similar in their formation.

Positioning

As of the close on Friday, I have positioned short in all three markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

The IYR short was initiated this past Wednesday, the Silver short on Thursday, then just minutes before the close on Friday, the biotech short.

Trades are labeled as SRS-23-04, ZSL-23-01, LABD-23-13

Next Steps

The coming week is likely to see one, or a variation of the following: all trades stopped out, one or two trades with discretionary exit, then followed by potential concentration on the best candidate.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Upside Breakout

November 16, 2023 By in Gold & Silver, Positions, SLV, UNG, UNG-23-05, zsl, ZSL-23-01 1 Comment

Above Resistance, In (Potential) Trouble

So, Tuesday, the shorts were carried out on stretchers.

No matter the sharp upward spike, short covering has not changed the tsunami; the ‘liquidity crisis‘.

Basically, there’s not enough cash to go around, not enough in a big way.

Is it possible, in the coming year, there will be huge demand for cash … fiat cash?

With that backdrop we have silver (SLV) making lower highs and lower lows.

Silver SLV, Daily

The chart shows a breakout above resistance. The question is, can it hold?

With price action where it is, just above resistance, SLV is at The Danger Point®

If it can’t push materially higher from here, it’s at risk of reversal.

Positioning

Silver:

With the above conditions and potential for downside, a short position was opened via Leveraged Inverse Fund ZSL

Entry at ZSL 18.18 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hard Stop is TBD but will likely be the session low @ ZSL 18.04.

Trade is, ZSL-23-01

Natural Gas:

Trade UNG-23-05, was stopped out this session at UNG 6.44 for a minor profit of 0.10-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Crash … Exit Targets

October 11, 2022 By in DRV, DRV-22-04, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD-22-08, Real Estate, SLV, SPBIO, zsl, ZSL-22-01

The DRV, Exit(s)

Well-calculated stops, (mostly) take care of trade implosion. So, where’s the exit?

The answer is there’s no set answer.

We’ll explain that by using the current plan for DRV-22-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Questions

First question to determine an exit in this case, is to ask:

“What are the media pundits, and/or ‘experts’ talking about right now?”

Well, that’s easy.

Just like the ‘silver squeeze’ idea that won’t go away (even as SLV continues downward), the ‘Fed pivot‘ is another delusion that keeps holding on.

As parts of the market (like IYR) continue their free-fall, all eyes are on the next Fed meeting; waiting for them to pivot and ‘save us’.

Right around November 1st, or 2nd, seems like it can’t help but be some kind of emotional cathartic set-up.

Unless stopped out ahead of time, the plan, is to plan an exit within that window.

Let’s go to the IYR, 3X Leveraged Inverse fund DRV.

IYR, 3X Inverse, DRV, Daily

At the end of today’s session DRV has posted a downside reversal candle.

The next session will be important.

We either have follow-through to the downside, thus validating the reversal (and exit of the position) or we have some variation of an inside day or new daily high.

If the trading channel remains valid, the compressed chart below shows a potential exit range: DRV 140 – 200.

During the next session(s), if DRV, posts a new daily high (unless stopped), the DRV-22-04, stop will be moved to this session’s low @ 73.86

Positions & Current Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

The following is the positioning of my firm’s main (largest) account.

DRV-22-04:

Entry @ 66.463, Stop @ 63.98

ZSL-22-01:

Entry @ 28.08, Stop @ 28.53:

Discretionary exit (today) @ 31.5513***

Trade Closed

LABD-22-08***:

Entry @ 25.1278 (yesterday) and 24.735 (today), Stop @ 22.59

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ProLogis … Real Estate Proxy

October 7, 2022 By in 2007 - 2008, AMT, DRV, DRV-22-04, IYR, PLD, Positions, zsl, ZSL-22-01

The Work Has Already Been Done

This is how it pays off.

Work was done months ago, on ProLogis (logistics/warehouse, real estate) which at the time, was the largest cap in the IYR.

It’s now No.2, just behind AMT, but the effort is still valid.

From that post last May, the behavior of ProLogis during a bear market was summed up with the following:

“It’s straightforward.

Using 2008 – 2009, timeframe as the proxy, PLD was vaporized; straight down for two-months.”

Well, that was back in ’08 – ’09.

Let’s see how our ‘vaporization’ is going now.

ProLogis PLD, Monthly

Price action is at support.

Downward pressure is immense.

We should all be able to agree, this time is worse than last time (’08 – ’09).

There’s no money left for a ‘save’, and our chief cook and bottle washer, the Fed, seems to be on a different agenda.

So, let’s remind ourselves of the potential for this down-move should it come to fruition.

The weekly chart of PLD, and distance traveled below the 200-wk Moving Average, gives us a sense of the enormity.

ProLogis PLD, Weekly

To position for a potential event, there may be plenty of time, or no time.

Either way, when things really get started to the downside, confusion, panic, locked-up brokerages, internet outages, will likely be the norm.

Positions & Current Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

The following is the positioning of my firm’s main (largest) account.

DRV-22-04:

Entry @ 66.463, Stop @ 63.98

ZSL-22-01:

Entry @ 28.08, Stop @ 28.53***

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close …

October 5, 2022 By in Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-07, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, zsl, ZSL-22-01 1 Comment

The Tape Is Always Right

Once again, stopped-out of the biotech short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Call it bad timing, incorrect analysis or whatever. Every opportunity for SPBIO, to go lower is being thwarted … so, no more for now.

On the flip side, the potential collapse in silver has been discussed over the past few weeks, here, here, here and here.

Looking at the chart below, not only do we have a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, but unless it’s negated by subsequent price action, we’ve got an ‘island gap reversal’ as well.

Prices can’t be sustained at yesterday’s higher level.

Silver SLV, Daily

As previously discussed, very late in the session as SLV, price action rose higher, reducing the risk, a short was entered via Leveraged Inverse Fund ZSL @ 28.08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The trade is identified as ZSL-22-01.

An obvious hard-stop would be yesterday’s high in SLV, or the corresponding low in ZSL @ 26.55.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Silver Set-Up

October 5, 2022 By in Neil McCoy-Ward, Silver Collapse, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Texas Freeze, zsl 4 Comments

Repeating: Spring-To-Up-Thrust

Which comes first: Freezing and starving to death, or currency collapse?

Is that a hyperbolic statement?

Short answer, is no.

Here are at least two boots-on-the-ground sources that paint an incredibly bleak picture of what is to come in just weeks for Europe.

Links are here and here.

As with the Texas Freeze, the last thing on anybody’s mind was their “stack” of silver.

The humanitarian crisis is happening now, if not soon. Currency collapse may be months if not years away.

Which brings us to the precious metals and specifically silver, SLV.

The past few trading sessions have formed a repeating set-up: Spring-To-Up-Thrust.

Silver SLV, Daily

Note, the Pre-Market activity is far below yesterday’s high; the bulls may be trapped.

Typically the first order of business is an attempt to close the gap. If that happens, price action is then narrowing the risk on a short entry (not advice, not a recommendation).

One typical trading vehicle for shorting silver (other than the futures market) is 2X Inverse Fund ZSL.

Summary

The bulls think it’s finally the launch they have been waiting for … all these years.

It could be … anything can happen.

However, that does not take away from the fact we’ve got a trade set-up that may offer a low-risk short entry (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279