Volatility Event: Newmont Mining

January 20, 2022 By in Dr. Elder, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-01, Positions, Stew Peters, The Speck 1 Comment

Alignment Of The Bears

“Volatility Is Good”

Volatility cauterizes the emotions. It reveals the market extremes and shows each player’s hand; bulls and bears.

With the market just opened we’re going to look at gold’s last man standing: Newmont Mining.

‘Last man standing’ because, except for two equities far down in Senior Miner’s GDX, no one is anywhere near their mid-November highs.

The take on this: The gold market’s thinning out and ready to reverse.

A really big move

It’s easy to get lost and hypnotized with the day-to-day action. However, by pulling back, one sees the potential for a massive short (the market) opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Implosion Effects: Broker Platforms Go Inoperative

Over and again, nearly each time there’s a big down move in the markets, where the Dow may lose 1,000 points or more, brokerage platforms seize up.

It happens so often; it’s probably best to incorporate it into one’s trading approach.

That’s one of the reasons, if not the main reason to work the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont’s Short Clues

The volatility has exposed everybody’s hand on both side of the trade. That’s the good part.

We’ll touch on each technical event separately, starting with the unmarked daily chart:

First off, markets that have wide, high-volume bars, tend to come back and test that bar. We see it below:

Next, price action’s got itself into a terminating wedge; a potential bearish reversal pattern:

Then, we have today as Fibonacci Day 34, from the December 2nd, reversal low.

As this post is being created, NEM just made a new daily high; potentially culminating its wedge terminating move.

Big Fish, Little Hook

As Dr. Elder has said concerning stop placement, ‘You can’t catch a big fish with a little hook’.

So, we have GLD, GDX and GDXJ, in a November bull trap (up-thrust), with what looks like two-months of price action to come back and test.

If that assessment’s correct and it took two months just for a test, whatever happens next, may be on the order of years to resolve itself.

From a trade standpoint, it looks like today’s low in JDST, current open position, JDST-22-01, may be a good place for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont, Reversing

After Newmont posted a new daily high, it’s currently trading below yesterday’s close.

Deflation Pivot-Point

We have the usual hysteria in the gold market but this time, deflationary forces may be overtaking the manic gold bulls.

Case in point:

Existing home sales look like they’re rolling over. All kinds of excuses being made about lack of inventory and the imaginary ‘Speck’ with its new variant.

The one thing not imaginary about The Speck, is this report about what’s really going on.

Massive ‘depopulation’, is deflationary.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Test ?

January 20, 2022 By in DUST, DUST-21-01, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-01, Positions 1 Comment

Updating Now; Not Waiting For Tomorrow

If this is a test of the mid-November up-thrust, things may happen quickly from here on out; with that in mind, it’s important to get it all (technical data) out in the open.

The gold (GLD) chart is similar to the GDX that was discussed in the prior update.

It could be a test of the bull trap from last November.

If that’s indeed the case, and price action reverses lower from here, the downdraft could be more than significant.

Position Change

Instead of lightening-up on the DUST-21-01 position as stated, that position was modified.

The DUST-21-01 was closed out. Then, a position in JDST opened immediately; currently labeled as JDST-22-01, with nearly the same position size.

The gold market appears to be thinning out.

We want to pick the weakest part of the sector for downside potential (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Junior Miners. GDXJ, have been lagging the Seniors GDX, for some time.

Today appeared to be a good opportunity, with everything at extremes, to make the change (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … End of the Thinning ?

January 19, 2022 By in DUST, DUST-21-01, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, Positions 1 Comment

There are violent moves today in gold; both gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX.

One could think, maybe rightly so, the whole market, the miners, gold and silver, are kicking off a massive bull run.

On the surface, it looks that way.

Looking deeper, maybe not.

It could be a test of the November ’21, reversal.

Looking at charts of both Newmont and Senior Miners, GDX (we’ll cover gold tomorrow), the prior assessment, the market’s thinning-out applies even more.

Everything possible is being thrown into the last man standing: Newmont.

The violence of these moves is obvious.

Newmont (NEM) and GDX: Daily Charts

We’re going to put the unmarked chart of Newmont (NEM) and GDX directly below. The key takeaway is how far above NEM, is from its mid-November highs.

Then, look at GDX and note, it’s close but well below its mid-November highs.

This market (Senior Miners) continues to thin out … and it’s doing it violently.

Newmont (NEM):

Senior Miners, GDX:

Looking at the marked-up chart of GDX, it’s possible all of the action over the past two months, was to get into position to test the upthrust:

If an up-thrust “test” is the correct way to view this action, with gold (GLD) in a similar position, and if price action can’t hold these levels, the ensuing downside stands to be even more violent.

Run Fast, Or Not At All

Before the end of this session, DUST-21-01, will be reduced to be in compliance with margin requirements.

At mid-session, that reduction would be in the area of 12% of position size (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond, Bear Trap … Now ?

January 18, 2022 By in Bonds, DUST, DUST-21-01, GDX, Positions, TLT

TLT, Penetrates Support Early

Looks like bonds (TLT) aren’t wasting any time.

This update proposed we’d get a penetration of support sometime around the upcoming Fed meeting on the 26th of this month.

However, today, TLT price action has moved lower, penetrated support and is resting just below those levels.

Long Bonds (TLT) Weekly

The Weekly chart shows price action hanging just below support levels (blue line).

TLT is at the danger point where risk of going long, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

My firm has no interest in buying the debt of a bankrupt nation … any nation. So, we’ll stand aside on going long the TLT.

However, we can use this action as a proxy for the overall markets. That is, a strong TLT upside reversal may indicate downward acceleration in the major indices; S&P, Dow, QQQ and on.

Senior Miners, GDX

The daily chart of GDX has posted a new daily low.

This action helps to confirm that GDX remains in the downward trading channel, discussed here and is now continuing to move lower into that channel.

Positioning:

Remaining short GDX via DUST and increasing position size as the market allows (not advice, not a recommendaiton).

Trade identified as DUST-21-01.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Front Running The News

January 17, 2022 By in Corn, Dollar, Food Supply, Genesis 41, ice-age-farmer, Inflation, Speck-Effect, Stew Peters, The Speck, Vernon Coleman, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

‘Out In Front, By A Year’

A pattern begins to emerge.

That is, the strategies and research presented on this site are leading actual news events by about twelve months.

Example No. 1: The Dollar Rally

The dollar rally potential (when first recognized) was presented in this post over a year ago.

Since then, about 10 – 11 months later, ZeroHedge picked it up only after it had become a full-blown reversal.

The dollar has continued to rally and is currently (after breaking support), in Wyckoff ‘spring position’.

Example No. 2: The Food Supply & ‘Inflation’

One of the earliest posts discussing the intentional destruction of the food supply, is linked here.

From that update, we had:

“The entire U.S. agricultural food supply infrastructure is being systematically dismantled.”

Those statements looked hyperbolic at the time.

Obviously, at this point, it’s becoming common knowledge; at least for anyone that’s listening.

Example No. 3: The ‘Speck Effect’

In what may have seemed like a brutal rant, has now become fact.

This rendition of ‘The Night Before Christmas’, posted over a year ago, had no links to support the intuitive assessment of what was to come.

That post has now been updated with the facts.

Warning Note:

Obviously, not everyone injected, is a coward.

Children are rightly terrified. Let’s be realistic.

However, the idiot parents and enabling Doctors and Pharmacists are (eventually) likely, as Dr. Vernon Coleman puts it, to be arrested and tried/convicted for either murder or attempted murder.

Summary

There are other research examples like gold and the gold miners but the three above, cover the picture fairly well.

From the data presented, it’s apparent at least two things are happening simultaneously.

No. 1: Strategic Analysis

World, market, and local (within the U.S.) events are researched and analyzed for potential impact.

No. 2: Market (Wyckoff) Analysis

Those events from No.1, are then linked to market action if any. Potential opportunities are identified.

The Path Forward:

This update is a very brief description of the site’s go-forward objectives.

What’s here, is a long-term (documented) track record of situational awareness; coupled with reading price action which in turn, is used as a case for market positioning.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond, Bear Trap … When ?

January 15, 2022 By in Amazing Polly, Bonds, GLD, Neo Feudalism, TLT, TMF, TMV, TNX 1 Comment

Let’s Pick A Date

Hovering right at support, the long bond (TLT) is threatening to break through to the downside.

The usual suspects are out (here and here) pontificating about how many rate hikes there’ll be this year or how the Fed’s ‘not doing enough’ to combat inflation.

By now, anybody with two basis-points rubbing together should know, the Fed’s not going to do anything for anyone except itself.

If you’re reading this and have not separated from the nonsense, predictive programming, and mass-psychosis that is the financial press, feel free to do so now.

Not that one has to ignore them altogether.

It’s ok to monitor what they’re doing but ‘ol Zig Ziglar probably stated it best when he said (paraphrasing):

‘I read the Bible and the newspaper every day. That way I know what both sides are up to’. 🙂

Incorporating that worldview into one’s analysis is a healthier, more sane approach than trusting government statistics or mainstream propaganda.

Of course, one also has to be able to strategize and read price action. That’s the hard part.

So, let’s take a look at what bonds (TLT) are doing; then come up with a potential reversal (to the upside) scenario.

Asset Confiscation

Wait !!!

Bonds up and rates down? How is that possible. Aren’t interest rates going up in 2022?

Well, it could happen.

However, there’re several behind the scenes agendas at work; not the least of which is asset confiscation of the middle-class: “You will own nothing”, right?

This confiscation scheme has been planned for so long, it’s even got a name: Neo Feudalism.

If market participants and ‘investors’ find themselves in yet another wipe-out, they’re going to flock to the supposed ‘safety’ of U.S. bonds (just like they did last time).

Couple that with a few potato-head executive orders saying the market’s too dangerous for the proletariat; only bonds can be purchased and voila!!!

Long Bonds, TLT

Will that scenario above, play out in 2022?

Of course, that’s unknown until it actually happens.

However, what we do have as shown in the weekly chart of TLT, is a potential bear trap setting up.

Price action finished this past week hovering just at support. The range narrowed and the volume declined slightly … in effect, validating that support.

We’ve got an FOMC meeting coming up with the usual suspects issuing a propaganda statement at 2:00 p.m., EST on the 26th.

What To Watch:

Between now and then, bond price action could re-write the entire script just as it did with the gold market set-up.

Back then, the original gold (GLD) breakout idea was tabled only to have it show up again a few weeks later.

Note: Gold (GLD) broke to the upside exactly at the (purple) circled area shown:

Time and location, identified in advance.

Of course, the markets are a fluid and fractal mechanism. We’re dealing with probabilities and strategy, not pure (one answer only) mathematics.

Anything can happen.

However, given all the above discussion, the chart of TLT shown, has a reasonable potential to trap the bears in a bullish reversal if it penetrates support.

What’s the most likely time for this to happen?

Well, that would be on or about 2:00 p.m., EST, January 26th (absolutely not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … The Short Side

January 13, 2022 By in DUST, DUST-21-01, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners 1 Comment

The Second, ‘First Lesson’: Go Short

‘Don’t lose money’.

That’s the first lesson in trading.

The other ‘first lesson’; the short side can be (and usually is) more profitable and faster than, the long side.

Anybody’s whose paying attention at this point, knows that ‘something in the market’s going to pop’.

We, in the serfdom, don’t know what or where it is; just that there’s a sense of an event just off the horizon.

From a personal standpoint, to be holding (or maintaining) long during a market upset is the last place one wants to be (not advice, not a recommendation).

Which brings us to shorting the gold market and more specifically, the Senior Miners, GDX.

Senior Miners, GDX

The weekly chart of GDX shows where we are; the market just opened for the day.

It might not look like much is going on … that is, until we show the trading channel.

The right-side trend-line has been purposely shown as ‘dashed-line’ so that when we zoom-in below, we can clearly see GDX, is at the danger point.

This is the exact location where risk is least (not advice, not a recommendation). We’re right at the trendline.

At this point, price action’s still posting below last week’s GDX high of 32.03

GDX Leveraged Inverse, DUST

Looking at the inverse chart DUST, we’ve just posted a new daily low (new daily high for GDX) while at the same time being at Fibonacci Day 21, from the top of the December 15th reversal/correction.

We’ve already had the ‘first correction’ as shown the trade model below.

The ongoing test of that correction was unexpected but not out of the norm for price action behavior.

If the gold miners, GDX are to reverse and continue lower in their channel, today is a high probability day for that reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s review the trade model (checklist) thus far:

The System:

  1. The Set-Up 
  2. The ‘test’ or ‘gut-check’
  3. The first ‘correction’
  4. Continuation or Failure
    1. Trend identification
    2. Potential channel(s)
  5. Exit process
    1. Scale out
    2. Full exit
  6. Post trade evaluation

At this juncture, we’re right at No. 4, ‘Continuation or Failure.

A new daily low for GDX and corresponding new high for DUST, shifts probabilities to trade ‘continuation’.

If that happens, we’ll start looking for trendlines, if any.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pivot – Point: ‘Inflation’

January 12, 2022 By in DUST, DUST-21-01, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, Positions, Speck-Effect

Major Direction Change Ahead ?

Was the inflation report ‘brutal’ or not?

The gold market, the supposed ‘inflation’ safe haven, has already decided for itself.

That is, GLD ‘blips’ higher just 0.26%. Hardly a screaming bull market.

If the worst inflation in 39-years can’t drive the gold market higher, then we’re taking the contrary view.

We may have just seen the peak of whatever’s being termed inflation.

Demand on many if not all fronts (except, maybe food) looks ready to collapse. The consumer’s tapped out; about to be taxed out as well.

Taxed out of whatever is left of their property … even if it’s stolen property.

Buried in this mainstream article may actually be some truth. ‘Supply chain pressures are easing … shipping rates coming down’.

Of course, they won’t tell why it’s happening.

It’s a double whammy of the consumer being maxed-out and literally dropping out as well.

We’re calling the video in the link, The ‘Speck-Effect’.

Let’s move on and take a look at what the gold market has to say about inflation.

Gold (GLD) Daily Chart

Price action is nowhere near a bull move and remains below significant resistance.

In the expanded chart below, we can see GLD literally banging about below the resistance level.

First, a test. Then a secondary test and now, what looks like a third attempt.

Note, that each subsequent test is at a lower high (thus far).

Senior Miners (GDX)

Price action in the miners, GDX is similar to GLD.

GDX remains below significant resistance.

Each upward attempt appears to be terminating at lower and lower levels.

Newmont (NEM) and DUST-21-01

Price action in Newmont (NEM) continues to look as if the entire market is thinning-out.

If there are this many price-action attempts to throw off market participants whether bulls or bears, one gets the sense the ensuing move (if/when it comes), may be literally off the charts.

Maintaining short via DUST-21-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

We’ve just had the worse ‘inflation’ news in 39 – 40 years, depending on the source. Yet, the precious metals markets go nowhere. Therefore:

The ‘inflation narrative’ is false.

Just another lie. Probably no surprise there.

If it was true, then all commodities, gold, silver, corn, grains, oil, coffee, every last one of them, would be in a screaming bull market.

Instead, we’ve got the grains moving higher while precious metals move lower.

It can be shown that gold is now inversely correlated to corn as seen, in this post (in case you missed it).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont: Fibonacci Count

January 11, 2022 By in DUST, DUST-21-01, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, Positions

Reversal Posting Fibonacci Sequence

In what seems to be a surreal exercise, waiting to see what’s going to happen next, Newmont (NEM), is posting Fibonacci counts in its nascent reversal (thus far).

The usual suspects are out on YouTube … touting the next bull move in gold and the miners.

However, the market itself is saying it’s not convinced.

This is another brief update to show Newmont has apparently reversed; posting Fibonacci counts on the initial downswing and what looks to be the upward test.

Newmont (NEM) Daily Chart With Fibonacci Count(s)

It’s up to the market itself to say today was the top of the reversal test … or something else is going on and we may indeed have the gold miners in the beginning stages of a bull move.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Short (DUST-21-01) Trade Update

January 10, 2022 By in DUST, DUST-21-01, GDX, Gold Miners, Positions

Brief, And To The Point

The 3-Day chart of GDX inverse fund DUST above, has the vertical range compressed to better show the support/resistance boundary.

The boundary is shown close-up in the version below:

Coming back to test a boundary as shown is normal market behavior … there’s nothing (yet) that would indicate the direction of ETF GDX is changing its main direction from down to up … with DUST moving correspondingly lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, we’re potentially at another danger point where price action can go either way.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279