Monthly Archives: July 2021

Psychologically Unprepared

July 13, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, DIA, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, IBB, LABD, Northman Trader, Sven Henrich, Wyckoff 1 Comment

11:43 a.m., EST

When the break comes … it’s not coming back

Nearly 100-years ago, Wyckoff, stated:

‘If you can’t completely ignore the news and the financial press, you will never be successful in the markets’ (emphasis added).

In line with that, we have this: The very first sentence from this article out of barchart is questionable to say the least.

First:

There is no rapid ‘re-opening’. There never was. There is no ‘pent up’ demand.

Massive credit card usage shows the U.S. consumer has been decimated; using credit just to survive.

It should be (but somehow for some, it’s not) obvious we’re in a controlled demolition of the economy (including the food supply) on a world-wide scale.

Second:

Price increases are the result of supply chain (also, controlled demolition) shutdown not inflation.

Uneducated Economist has probably done the best job of ‘boots on the ground’ work to completely dispel the inflation false narrative.

He called the current and now waning lumber price spike two years ago. That’s how you know who to trust or believe. Take a look at their past analysis and see how it ‘aged’.

Third:

The U.S. population collectively, has never experienced real hardship. Those who made it through the Great Depression have all but died off.

There is no one around to give said population a swift kick in the pants and tell them to ‘suck it up’.

Northman Trader

Sven Henrich has come out with an excellent market update, linked here.

Towards the end of his analysis he states; ‘when the break comes, it will be quick, deep, keep going and most (if not nearly all) will be psychologically unprepared.’

Which brings us to biotech.

LABD Analysis:

Biotech SPBIO, is back as downside leader: Down just over -25%, from its highs in February, this year.

The daily chart of (inverse fund) LABD is below. The market itself is showing us it wants to follow the repeating pattern of trendlines (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the entire structure (from the February low) is actually a trading channel, it’s hard not to overuse the word ‘massive’.

Non Confirmation:

As of this post, the Dow, the S&P and the Composite are unchanged to slightly higher. Yet biotech SPBIO, is down -1.2%.

We won’t know until it’s all over … but it looks like biotech could somehow be the catalyst (along with the dollar and gold?) that precipitates the final reversal in the overall market.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

SOXX: Testing The Top

July 12, 2021 By in SOXS, SOXX, ZeroHedge

12:03 p.m., EST

Underside Test of Resistance

The last update on SOXX, noted one thing missing was a new daily low confirming the reversal. About 15-minutes after that post, SOXX printed a new daily low.

Now, we’re in an underside test of the breakdown.

The daily close chart (above) shows price action coming back to the underside. This is how the market squeezes out risk of a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday’s update had a link to ZeroHedge about how the market ‘has to’ move higher this week; the ‘selling’ is finished.

A healthy way to view this type of information is to be aware of the source.

If it’s a major retail brokerage or trading firm, their own (internal) market stance is likely to be completely opposite their financial press release.

Let’s see what happens next.

We’re not looking to short the SOXX but it’s still an educational exercise to monitor the sector.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

July 11, 2021 By in ice-age-farmer, Northern Brewer, Random Notes, Van Metre, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

The usual suspects for the week

No. 1

The market does not ‘have’ to do anything.

Here’s a link to a Zerohedge report letting us know why the market ‘has to cover shorts‘ and move higher this coming week.

The reason retail money managers, pundits and the financial press don’t focus on price action and volume (a life-long pursuit of mastery), is because it’s hard.

As the late David Weis said:

‘There’s a lot to this game of reading the chart.’

Just as Steven Van Metre has drilled down into perfecting his style of bond ‘macro’ management, so too has this site drilled down into the nuance of volume and price action.

That in turn, is coupled with the externals (the ‘macro’, if you will) of sentiment and fundamentals.

It’s more art and intuition than science.

That’s a good thing.

The pointy headed ‘quants’, can’t quantify intuition.

The market (which is thinning out as we speak) may indeed rise this coming week. However, if it does, it won’t be because it ‘has’ to.

No. 2

The ‘knock at the door’

Awaken With JP has a humorous but educational approach on how to help those who want to ‘help’ us.

No. 3

Get the ethanol out

Here’s a brief video on how to get the ethanol out of gasoline.

Once that’s out, you’ll need octane boost. This seems to be highly rated stuff.

No. 4

Grow and store your own. Food, that is.

In this report from iceagefarmer, the picture at time stamp 10:27, should dispel all illusion. ‘Shaking hands with Klaus’.

At time stamp 16:02, notice how many farmers have been notified.

Once awake, anomalies like these ‘numbers’ are spotted instantly. It serves to remind us, who is ‘of this world’.

‘My kingdom is not of this world‘

No. 5

Brew your own. Beer, that is.

At this point in time and with global shutdowns on the horizon again, maybe we just brew our own.

I have purchased the exact kit shown in the link.

Report on the results to follow.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Deflation = Credit Destruction

July 10, 2021 By in Credit Destruction, Deflation, Economic Ninja, Gold & Silver, SLV, Uneducated Economist, WFC

Silver Collapse Ahead?

If and when food shipments halt nationwide and there’s nothing at the grocery store, is everyone going to run to gold and silver?

Will that be the savior?

It certainly wasn’t during the ‘Texas Freeze’. Not even on the list of must-haves.

The next planned event(s) are in plain sight for those who can see.

Mega drought in the corn belt (whether real or not), power substation blows up in Houston (that one was real) and planned destruction (or total control) of semi-trailer shipping (also real).

It’s the food supply and infrastructure first; then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Wells Fargo incident; inflation has likely run its course.

The dollar (and bonds) are in strong upside reversals; gold and sliver are (still) inversely correlated to those markets.

Inflation is credit expansion. Deflation is credit destruction. That’s where we are now.

Analysis: Silver

It’s the job of the mainstream financial media to make sure as many as possible are on the wrong side of the trade.

They have done well with the ‘inflation’ narrative.

Uneducated Economist puts it well; price increases are the result of supply constriction not inflation.

Which brings us to silver.

The weekly close of silver proxy SLV, has the ‘short squeeze’ already complete.

Shortages of product, continued inflation pummeling by the press, have not moved the metal higher; that’s the ‘tell’, something’s wrong.

Wells Fargo has kicked off the next round; deflation or deflation impulse.

One has to be prepared; silver may (even if only for a few days or weeks) head down to below where it started the squeeze.

Even to single digits … $9/oz., anyone?

If that happens, it means that gold and silver are being dumped onto the market while everyone’s scrambling for food, water and protection.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Ripple Effect’

July 9, 2021 By in Banking, Biotech, BIS, Economic Ninja, IBB, LABD, Nissam Taleb, SPBIO, WFC

12:23 p.m., EST

Wells Fargo: Just the start?

The short answer is probably yes; but that’s only one problem.

Everyone’s subject to ‘normalcy bias‘ as Nissam Taleb puts it; Today’s like yesterday and tomorrow will be like today.

The news on Wells Fargo shows how quickly that can change.

Here’s a YouTube link; one man’s assessment on what happens now.

He proposes a ‘ripple effect’.

Events have been set in motion; not necessarily immediately but it has started nonetheless.

Market Positioning:

So, here we are going into the weekend.

Does anyone want to be long the market at this point (not advice, not a recommendation)?

There must be some that do as we’re still at elevated levels.

The trade approach implemented on this site (i.e., positioning short), takes into account and actually plans for a ‘disconnect’.

Only the inexperienced or naïve think (at this time in market history) they can get out as easily as they got in; i.e. day and swing trading.

Analysis: SPBIO (LABD):

We’ll start close in first and look at the hourly LABD:

Price action has come back to test the boundary (blue line).

As frustrating as it might seem (and it is), this is normal market behavior. The market itself has to define who is in control; bulls or bears.

It’s never ending.

That’s why a case has been built on the fundamental side; why biotech is subject to a massive implosion.

That backdrop, is being supported (little by little) with price action and thus, helps keep the mind focused.

If we pull out to the daily, we see the familiar trend-line(s):

We’re at another danger point. Price action can go either way.

If LABD pivots higher from here, it’s one more confirmation that we’re trending higher (SPBIO, lower) into our October-exit timeframe (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Order to Chaos … and Back

July 8, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, S&P, S&P 500, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY

10:49 a.m., EST

Biotech Gap Lower, Expected

Fibonacci Day 8

Last Stop Before Chaos?

This morning’s gap lower in SPBIO (LABD higher) was fully expected.

Expected as well, is the retrace in progress as of this post.

Today, is Fibonacci Day 8 from the LABD, pivot low of June 28th.

Biotech (SPBIO) has posted a fantastic time sequence on the daily as well as the weekly.

The gap-lower open in the S&P (more so for SOXX) has everyone sharpening their pencils; wondering, if ‘this is it?’.

It could be.

However, with attention now focused on potential downside, the clean Fibonacci sequences are likely to morph into chaotic movement.

The time for low-risk short positioning (not advice, not a recommendation) in this sector may be coming to an end.

Looking at inverse LABD, and using the Fibonacci retrace tool, it’s likely price action will retrace to at least the 38%, level.

At this point, it’s already close:

The inverse biotech LABD, 15-minute chart (above) shows we’re near the 38%, level.

After today, the expectation is for price action to become SPBIO downside chaotic … long enough to frustrate the late-comers to the sector.

After that, and however long that is, price action may once again become orderly.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Greed is Good’

July 7, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Positions, Project Stimulus, SPBIO, The Speck, Vernon Coleman

11:53 a.m., EST

Old Fashioned Greed Saves The Day?

After BA pilot fatalities were confirmed, at least one airline is backing off from insisting their pilots are injected.

Some adverse reactions linked above, occurred in-flight; the pilot was incapacitated.

“Is there a pilot on-board?”

That could become a frequent call through the cabin intercom in the months … even years to come.

The bottom line implications are obvious.

The response to ‘back-off’ probably has nothing to do with safety and more to do with protecting those executive stock options.

Which brings us to the markets.

Analysis: SPBIO (LABD)

The last update for biotech said it was ‘about to get real’. So, it has.

Looking at SPBIO inverse fund LABD, we have the familiar trend lines:

The market itself says it wants to follow this trend.

Pulling out to the weekly, we get what seems to be an incredible picture.

At the beginning of the trade, the short position in SPBIO, via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), had an exit time-frame during the second, or third week of October.

From an empirical and seasonal standpoint, that’s when on-going downtrends tend to reach their lows.

Already Baked In:

Various numbers are bandied about as to how many have been injected.

One estimate is 2-Billion, world-wide (Dr. Coleman if memory serves).

Total population at 7.9-Billion; 2-Billion, equates roughly to 25%

No matter what happens, de-population is already baked-in.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

SOXX: Textbook Top?

July 6, 2021 By in DIA, DJUSBM, Holiday Turns, IWM, IYM, Russell 2000, S&P, S&P 500, SOXS, SOXX, SPY, Trading 2 Comments

11:48 a.m., EST

By The Book?

SOXX chart: Like something from a book on trading

Price action’s struggling at new highs. MACD’s posting a bearish divergence. Can it get any better for the shorts?

(not advice, not a recommendation)

At least one thing missing (as of this post) is a new daily low. If we get that, it helps provide confirmation of a SOXX, top.

The S&P (SPY ) and the Dow (DIA), have both posted new daily lows as has the Russell 2000 (IWM).

We can also throw in Basic Materials DJUSBM (IYM), making a new daily low.

Recall in a previous update, empirical observation over the years; market tops tend to occur before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Looks like we may be there.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Now, It Gets Real

July 5, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Mike Yeadon, The Speck, Vernon Coleman, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Biotech reversal

No one is looking

The only way for price action to even hope of printing a Fibonacci series (daily chart), is when virtually no one is looking.

A quick YouTube search of “Biotech analysis“, turns up these links:

Best Biotech Growth Stock to Buy Now?? : Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Stock Analysis

3 Cheap Biotech Stocks With 100% Upside in 2021

Biotech analyst on CRISPR technology: Early data is very promising

Those three, are the most recent.

Looking at each, none of them even hint things could go wrong.

To be really cynical (and probably correct), the senior trading professionals may know this sector’s at risk of implosion.

They task junior employees to cover it; attempting to talk it up.

Analysis: SPBIO

Moving on to inverse fund LABD, we have Fibonacci correlation on two time frames:

In addition, from a Wyckoff standpoint, we’re in spring position on the weekly and daily time frames.

All of this points to high probability (not advice, not a recommendation) that biotech and specifically the weaker SPBIO, has pivoted to the downside (LABD higher).

Naming Names:

A couple of days ago, we had Dr. Yeadon (former Chief Scientist, Pfizer) absolutely grilling and eviscerating his interviewers, covered here.

Then, we have Dr. Coleman deciding to name, names.

Now, it’s getting real.

With this type of high-level pressure being applied from internationally known and respected (real) heroes, one has to think, it can’t be long before the lie is fully exposed; blowing the entire sector, wide open.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

July 4, 2021 By in Catherine Austin Fitts, Jerimiah Babe, Neo Feudalism, The Speck, Usual Suspects

The usual suspects for the week

No. 1

Next Up: Power Outage

National Guard’s in training for nationwide power outages.

The June 26th post, finished with this quote:

‘Most people think the worst is over when it’s not even started.’

That exemplifies the mindset required. This economic and societal decline is going to be a very long ordeal.

Surviving it, is like the two guys spooking a bear in the woods.

“We’re not going to out-run him” one says. The other guys says, “I don’t need to run faster than him … just faster than you”.

You don’t need to have 5-years of food stored. You only need as much to outlast the majority who are not prepared.

No. 2

Neo Feudalism

It’s been a while since this concept has been discussed. Our last post on the subject is here.

Now, we have this site giving us another view of the plan as it moves forward.

Self-employment is one answer to avoid being sucked into serfdom.

No. 3

Grease Plant Destroyed

Largest grease plant in the U.S. destroyed by fire.

So far we have:

Ship blocks Suez Canal for six (that’s right, 6) days.

Then, a 557 ft. ship carrying auto parts, sinks off coast of Japan.

Now, we have a grease plant fire.

Want grease, auto parts or food?

Get injected and we’ll put it all back to ‘normal’.

No. 4

Idiots Suffer More

There’s no joy watching others suffer.

Those of us who just want to ‘wake up others’, want only that; meaning, somehow, you’re able to pull back the veil. They now have eyes to see and ears to hear.

However, some seem to be under a spell.

Even after being diagnosed with a known side effect from injection, the truth is still mocked (time stamp 0:53 in the text).

No. 5

“Churches … have basically, checked-out”

Jerimiah Babe calls it straight at time stamp: 16:24

‘The Church’ had its opportunity way back in March of 2020.

That was the time to call on supernatural protection to ward off (what this site calls ‘the speck’ to avoid censorship) any negative effects of what we now know, was a fake enemy.

What we have instead, is this.

Let’s review for just a second:

“But the men marvelled, saying, What manner of man is this, that even the winds and the sea obey him!”

Does the master of the universe, the maker and sustainer of all things, really need a ‘man-made’ injection?

No. 6

Expired Lethality

It’s bad enough to line up and voluntarily get injected with a lethal compound.

Now, I’ve got to worry if that lethality has “expired”.

If it’s expired, is it more lethal, or less?

I want my money’s worth!

No. 7

Texas Heatwave … just another lie

The article at this link would have you believe it’s sweltering in Texas.

The short answer is no.

Not only no, but summer in Texas, had a late start.

The morning of Labor Day weekend, scheduled opening for the pool at city park, was 68-degrees.

The high for Labor Day Sunday, in Ft. Worth Texas, was 14-degrees colder, than last year.

No. 8

Pharmacist tells it like it is

Refuses to be part of the execution squad.

No. 9

Lions and tigers and Delta … Oh my!

Catherine Austin Fitts provides insight. Delta ‘variant’, is really ‘injury’ from the injection.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.