Category Archives: IBB

Psychologically Unprepared

July 13, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, DIA, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, IBB, LABD, Northman Trader, Sven Henrich, Wyckoff 1 Comment

11:43 a.m., EST

When the break comes … it’s not coming back

Nearly 100-years ago, Wyckoff, stated:

‘If you can’t completely ignore the news and the financial press, you will never be successful in the markets’ (emphasis added).

In line with that, we have this: The very first sentence from this article out of barchart is questionable to say the least.

First:

There is no rapid ‘re-opening’. There never was. There is no ‘pent up’ demand.

Massive credit card usage shows the U.S. consumer has been decimated; using credit just to survive.

It should be (but somehow for some, it’s not) obvious we’re in a controlled demolition of the economy (including the food supply) on a world-wide scale.

Second:

Price increases are the result of supply chain (also, controlled demolition) shutdown not inflation.

Uneducated Economist has probably done the best job of ‘boots on the ground’ work to completely dispel the inflation false narrative.

He called the current and now waning lumber price spike two years ago. That’s how you know who to trust or believe. Take a look at their past analysis and see how it ‘aged’.

Third:

The U.S. population collectively, has never experienced real hardship. Those who made it through the Great Depression have all but died off.

There is no one around to give said population a swift kick in the pants and tell them to ‘suck it up’.

Northman Trader

Sven Henrich has come out with an excellent market update, linked here.

Towards the end of his analysis he states; ‘when the break comes, it will be quick, deep, keep going and most (if not nearly all) will be psychologically unprepared.’

Which brings us to biotech.

LABD Analysis:

Biotech SPBIO, is back as downside leader: Down just over -25%, from its highs in February, this year.

The daily chart of (inverse fund) LABD is below. The market itself is showing us it wants to follow the repeating pattern of trendlines (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the entire structure (from the February low) is actually a trading channel, it’s hard not to overuse the word ‘massive’.

Non Confirmation:

As of this post, the Dow, the S&P and the Composite are unchanged to slightly higher. Yet biotech SPBIO, is down -1.2%.

We won’t know until it’s all over … but it looks like biotech could somehow be the catalyst (along with the dollar and gold?) that precipitates the final reversal in the overall market.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Ripple Effect’

July 9, 2021 By in Banking, Biotech, BIS, Economic Ninja, IBB, LABD, Nissam Taleb, SPBIO, WFC

12:23 p.m., EST

Wells Fargo: Just the start?

The short answer is probably yes; but that’s only one problem.

Everyone’s subject to ‘normalcy bias‘ as Nissam Taleb puts it; Today’s like yesterday and tomorrow will be like today.

The news on Wells Fargo shows how quickly that can change.

Here’s a YouTube link; one man’s assessment on what happens now.

He proposes a ‘ripple effect’.

Events have been set in motion; not necessarily immediately but it has started nonetheless.

Market Positioning:

So, here we are going into the weekend.

Does anyone want to be long the market at this point (not advice, not a recommendation)?

There must be some that do as we’re still at elevated levels.

The trade approach implemented on this site (i.e., positioning short), takes into account and actually plans for a ‘disconnect’.

Only the inexperienced or naïve think (at this time in market history) they can get out as easily as they got in; i.e. day and swing trading.

Analysis: SPBIO (LABD):

We’ll start close in first and look at the hourly LABD:

Price action has come back to test the boundary (blue line).

As frustrating as it might seem (and it is), this is normal market behavior. The market itself has to define who is in control; bulls or bears.

It’s never ending.

That’s why a case has been built on the fundamental side; why biotech is subject to a massive implosion.

That backdrop, is being supported (little by little) with price action and thus, helps keep the mind focused.

If we pull out to the daily, we see the familiar trend-line(s):

We’re at another danger point. Price action can go either way.

If LABD pivots higher from here, it’s one more confirmation that we’re trending higher (SPBIO, lower) into our October-exit timeframe (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Order to Chaos … and Back

July 8, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, S&P, S&P 500, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY

10:49 a.m., EST

Biotech Gap Lower, Expected

Fibonacci Day 8

Last Stop Before Chaos?

This morning’s gap lower in SPBIO (LABD higher) was fully expected.

Expected as well, is the retrace in progress as of this post.

Today, is Fibonacci Day 8 from the LABD, pivot low of June 28th.

Biotech (SPBIO) has posted a fantastic time sequence on the daily as well as the weekly.

The gap-lower open in the S&P (more so for SOXX) has everyone sharpening their pencils; wondering, if ‘this is it?’.

It could be.

However, with attention now focused on potential downside, the clean Fibonacci sequences are likely to morph into chaotic movement.

The time for low-risk short positioning (not advice, not a recommendation) in this sector may be coming to an end.

Looking at inverse LABD, and using the Fibonacci retrace tool, it’s likely price action will retrace to at least the 38%, level.

At this point, it’s already close:

The inverse biotech LABD, 15-minute chart (above) shows we’re near the 38%, level.

After today, the expectation is for price action to become SPBIO downside chaotic … long enough to frustrate the late-comers to the sector.

After that, and however long that is, price action may once again become orderly.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Greed is Good’

July 7, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Positions, Project Stimulus, SPBIO, The Speck, Vernon Coleman

11:53 a.m., EST

Old Fashioned Greed Saves The Day?

After BA pilot fatalities were confirmed, at least one airline is backing off from insisting their pilots are injected.

Some adverse reactions linked above, occurred in-flight; the pilot was incapacitated.

“Is there a pilot on-board?”

That could become a frequent call through the cabin intercom in the months … even years to come.

The bottom line implications are obvious.

The response to ‘back-off’ probably has nothing to do with safety and more to do with protecting those executive stock options.

Which brings us to the markets.

Analysis: SPBIO (LABD)

The last update for biotech said it was ‘about to get real’. So, it has.

Looking at SPBIO inverse fund LABD, we have the familiar trend lines:

The market itself says it wants to follow this trend.

Pulling out to the weekly, we get what seems to be an incredible picture.

At the beginning of the trade, the short position in SPBIO, via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), had an exit time-frame during the second, or third week of October.

From an empirical and seasonal standpoint, that’s when on-going downtrends tend to reach their lows.

Already Baked In:

Various numbers are bandied about as to how many have been injected.

One estimate is 2-Billion, world-wide (Dr. Coleman if memory serves).

Total population at 7.9-Billion; 2-Billion, equates roughly to 25%

No matter what happens, de-population is already baked-in.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Now, It Gets Real

July 5, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Mike Yeadon, The Speck, Vernon Coleman, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Biotech reversal

No one is looking

The only way for price action to even hope of printing a Fibonacci series (daily chart), is when virtually no one is looking.

A quick YouTube search of “Biotech analysis“, turns up these links:

Best Biotech Growth Stock to Buy Now?? : Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Stock Analysis

3 Cheap Biotech Stocks With 100% Upside in 2021

Biotech analyst on CRISPR technology: Early data is very promising

Those three, are the most recent.

Looking at each, none of them even hint things could go wrong.

To be really cynical (and probably correct), the senior trading professionals may know this sector’s at risk of implosion.

They task junior employees to cover it; attempting to talk it up.

Analysis: SPBIO

Moving on to inverse fund LABD, we have Fibonacci correlation on two time frames:

In addition, from a Wyckoff standpoint, we’re in spring position on the weekly and daily time frames.

All of this points to high probability (not advice, not a recommendation) that biotech and specifically the weaker SPBIO, has pivoted to the downside (LABD higher).

Naming Names:

A couple of days ago, we had Dr. Yeadon (former Chief Scientist, Pfizer) absolutely grilling and eviscerating his interviewers, covered here.

Then, we have Dr. Coleman deciding to name, names.

Now, it’s getting real.

With this type of high-level pressure being applied from internationally known and respected (real) heroes, one has to think, it can’t be long before the lie is fully exposed; blowing the entire sector, wide open.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Downside Leaders: Gold, Biotech

July 2, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, GDX, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Holiday Turns, IBB, LABD, Prechter, SPBIO

11:39 a.m., EST

Biotech SPBIO, Down Over 21%

Miners GDX, Down Over 25%

As of about 10:50 a.m., EST, this is where we are from a sector standpoint.

The major indices are masking the potential the next leg down, has already started.

Yesterday’s update posted the link for ‘Holiday Turns’.

It’s a list of empirical observation that market tops (reversals) tend to occur during holiday weeks.

The weekly chart of biotech SPBIO (which has been inverted), shows a Fibonacci 21-weeks, from the all time high (low on the chart) to this week’s pivot:

Not only is SPBIO adhering to Fibonacci time prints on the weekly, it’s doing it on the daily as well.

It was a Fibonacci 34 days to complete the 38%, retrace.

It was a Fibonacci 5 days to complete the most recent reversal and test; culminating early this session.

As stated many times, the bottom may fall out of biotech.

Someone or something in the criminal cabal is going to let loose; fully exposing the real intent of the entire operation.

Recall Prechter’s admonition; ‘price leads the news’

If SPBIO reverses at week 21, with a decisive move lower, it may not be long before news precipitates out into the mainstream.

We’re now two-hours into the trading day.

It’s typical for SPBIO, to begin its erosion (discussed here). Let’s see if it can retrace the sharp down move from the early session.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Make-A-Wish’ … Tipping Point?

June 29, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Make-A-Wish, SPBIO

12:54 p.m., EST

News Hits Mainstream

Biotech Pivots

Operating with impunity, does have its limits.

However, those fully immersed in their evil, are not aware when sentiment changes.

How can they be?

They don’t have the discernment (a God-given gift), that lets them know when the jig is up.

The statements made by the organization’s CEO listed in the title block, sorry, you’ll have to do your own search, we’re not providing links for what should be obvious reasons, has instantly brought the entire ‘charitable foundation’ schtick under suspicion if not outright exposure.

The visceral response to those statements was immediate.

Complexion of the so called ‘charitable’ industries has forever changed.

Has sentiment for the biotech euthanasia project changed also?

As always, price action is the final arbiter. Anything can happen.

Chart Analysis: Biotech, SPBIO

At this juncture biotech and specifically SPBIO, has pivoted decisively to the downside.

As with yesterday’s update, the daily SPBIO chart is inverted and annotated:

The ‘repeating trendline’ concept that’s been discussed for nearly the entire seven week corrective period, is included above.

This time, it looks like we’ve reached the right-edge.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Obvious Reversal: Biotech

June 28, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, SPBIO 2 Comments

1:53 p.m., EST

SPBIO, & IBB, Reversal

Over the past seven weeks, as the biotech indexes worked their way through a corrective retrace, there were no guarantees we’d get such an obvious reversal.

A market disconnect could have happened at any time (and is still a possibility).

At this juncture with SPBIO, penetrating and rejecting a prior resistance area, we’re likely on the way to much lower levels.

The daily SPBIO is below. The next chart has it inverted with notations added:

Inverted. Notations added:

We see penetration below the blue line support area. This sets up the Wyckoff spring condition (up-thrust, non-inverted).

The last update, showed thrust energy already divergent; set for reversal.

Note:

The criminal behavior within this sector continues to mount by the day.

Operating with impunity.

When, how, or if that breaks out into the open, is the big unknown.

SPBIO, Character Change:

One of the benefits (if you can call it that) of having a position that’s eroding by the day, is that you get very intimate with the behavior of price action.

Consider it an ‘opportunity’ to focus the mind.

The typical behavior of SPBIO (and inverse LABD), is to establish the day’s trading range within the first two hours of the session.

Consider those two hours as the ‘head fake’ as that range is then eroded throughout the rest of the day.

Today’s session has been no different. A wide range established early but here’s the change; There’s been little, to no erosion.

As if on cue, during the third hour of trade, SPBIO attempted to erode the range. Inverse LABD, shown below.

However, that attempt appears to have been rejected:

As of this post, price action can’t get itself (appreciably) back into the early morning’s range. The character of the index has changed.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Never More Fragile, as Now

June 26, 2021 By in Benavidez, Biotech, Flash Crash 2010, IBB, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, SPBIO, Sydney Watson, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Stretched, Stretched, Stretched

Slightest Dip, Cascading Effect

The last update had what some might consider a hyperbolic statement:

” … a market break anywhere from 20% to 50% (in our view) can happen at any moment.”

Less than an hour after that post, we had this from ZeroHedge.

” …in other words, stocks may be at a record high, but they have also never been more fragile and more sensitive to even a modest drop.”

Of course, nobody’s going to come out and publicly say we could get a ‘disconnect’ that results in a 20% drop or more, overnight.

Remember the Flash Crash of 2010?

In the entire history of the market, that’s never happened before, either.

Biotech Backdrop:

We’ve got empirical and anecdotal evidence pointing to the real objective of the ‘experiment’; now, we’re fortunate enough to have a data analyst doing what the medical establishment used to do.

That is, maintain and present the data.

The analyst at this link, is parsing the government database of adverse reactions. That analysis can be viewed here.

Reviewing the data solidifies the fundamental case even more for biotech implosion (taking down the broad market as well).

Mr. Benavidez estimates: 100,000 – 200,000 already dead in the U.S.

Let’s not forget; nearly half of the states have approved ‘liquefaction‘ of the deceased to be used as ‘fertilizer’. These are facts.

Seems like everything’s well planned … far in advance of current events.

Biotech Technical:

Since the SPBIO, index does not provide volume data, we’ve done a modification.

The SPBIO, weekly chart is below but it’s inverted. The weekly Force Index of leveraged inverse fund LABD, has been added.

On a closing basis, SPBIO (inverted) has penetrated just below support. It’s done so on significantly divergent energy.

Drilling down to the daily, it’s a similar picture; except we see the axis line (now support) more clearly.

Summary:

With the conditions noted above, SPBIO’s in position to pivot. Heading lower while LABD moves higher.

Potential USO Model:

When the big reversal takes hold, conditions may be similar to oil (USO) from July 2014, to the interim bottom of February, 2016.

During that move, the market retraced no more than 23.6%, at any stage of the decline.

However, if you recall, newsletter writers, pundits and YouTubers were putting out their prognostications; get into oil’s ‘big rebound’.

By February 2016, USO’s down a whopping – 81%. The oil market never came back.

Final Notes:

One commenter to a Jerimiah Babe video observed:

‘Most people think the worst is over when it’s not even started.’

That exemplifies the mindset required. This economic and societal decline is going to be a very long ordeal.

The normal at this point, is anything that wasn’t normal before.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Technical Force

June 25, 2021 By in Biotech, Bonds, IBB, LABD, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, Project Stimulus, SPBIO, USO 1 Comment

2:46 p.m., EST

LABD, Force Index Divergence

Sentiment, Volume, Price

Sentiment can’t be seen on the chart. One can guess but it can’t be measured directly.

Sentiment change comes first.

That change in turn, results in a change of volume, i.e. ‘commitment’.

Then, after commitment dissipates, price is next.

That looks like the current situation with biotech and specifically inverse fund, LABD.

In what may be an idiot or genius move (depending on outcome), the short in biotech SPBIO (via LABD) has been maintained throughout the current down thrust; not advice, not a recommendation.

The reasons for that decision have as many layers as the proverbial onion. Not the least of which, is a market break anywhere from 20% to 50% (in our view) can happen at any moment.

‘Never happened before’, one might say.

Oil futures in their entire history have never gone negative before, either.

Bonds, in their entire history have never been shorted by four-standard deviations before, either.

A world-wide coordinated push to euthanize the entire population has never happened before, either.

Margin debt and valuations have never been higher before, either.

Underlying liquidity has never before been removed to the current extent, either.

So, we each have our own reasons.

The firm’s main account (not the Project Stimulus account) has drawn down about – 13%, on the current short position.

A core position has been maintained but small amounts have been removed and added based on price action.

When the anticipated gain, is high hundreds of percent and maybe above 1,000%, the draw down above, looks acceptable considering the (potential) opportunity.

On to the chart:

The daily chart of LABD, shows both net downward price action and thrust energy are dissipating.

Note the ‘Force Index’ scale has been accentuated to better show the divergence.

We’re looking for price to move back higher to test support/resistance areas.

If or when it does, the plan (as has been from the beginning) is to continue to add LABD until volatility makes it prohibitive.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.