Pre-market action (8:34 a.m., EST) shows a lower open.
If we open lower, the short entry objective, is to wait for action to move higher in an attempt to close the (potential) gap (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
A ‘terminating’ wedge, typically comes at the end of a move whether up or down.
In the case of silver (SLV), that wedge has formed during an up move, giving us a hint, the next significant direction may be down (not advice, not a recommendation).
Silver SLV, Weekly
There’s a lot going on in this chart.
We’re coming up on the one-year anniversary of the hyperinflation breakout hysteria; remember that?
An entire series of posts was created on silver SLV, to show that for one, it’s not in a hyperinflation breakout, and two, historic price action suggests SLV projects to either a downside reversal, or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).
In about one year, SLV moved from $24.49, to yesterday’s $28.75; hardly a launch to $100/oz. – $500/oz., or more.
The Caveat
An SLV, post above last week’s high of 29.61, is a potential negation of the above analysis.
With that said, the wedge appears to be in-effect for now.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
I like the metals as much as the next guy, but that doesn’t help when it’s time to stay focused on what the market’s (really) saying.
This week’s volume in SLV, was more than last week by about 16%, but net distance traveled (at the close) was far less … about 74%, less net travel … ruh, roh.
Silver SLV, Tracking ETF, Weekly
There’s a wide price spike for the week but it’s the close, that’s the important part, holding just above resistance.
Obviously, what happens next is important.
Typical market behavior for silver suggests we’re at or near a top and due for some kind of downside move if not a complete reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Different This Time
If this time really is different and we’re in the long-awaited hyperinflation move, we’ll probably find out soon.
If that’s the case, meaning, it really is different, one would expect the behavior of the metals to change; like silver holds its current level, moves higher, or starts congesting for another up-wave.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
How long have we heard incessant rants, gold and silver hyper-launch is imminent?
Sure, I like gold as much as the next guy. It feels good when you hear the ‘clink’ of real money in your hands.
However, one has to remain unbiased and look at what price action, the market is actually telling us.
Strategy First
Since December 2020, this site has proposed, we’re in a situation similar to Genesis 41; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).
In this post (two years ago), an observation, ‘stackers’ may be forced to liquidate just to survive.
Now, we have this and this. On that second link, the comments tell the real story:
‘… people are selling their silver because they need cash.’
With that, let’s look at the chart of gold, GLD.
Gold GLD, Weekly Bar
We’ve seen it before, the set-up, The Danger Point®
Let’s add some insight to this picture, hidden in the chart; we have the following:
Look at how much time it’s taken GLD, to go from the bottom of the range to the top; longer each time and with less energy, shown by the decline in (upside) volume.
Longer & Less
Takes longer and less energy.
Still, that does not guarantee anything. Gold cold just keep on grinding higher.
However, probabilities suggest (the chart itself) we may be at or near, a pivot to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Nemont Mining (NEM), Gold, and the Oil & Gas Sector are at a critical juncture.
The rest of the major indices, Dow, S&P, QQQs, real estate (IYR), and so on, are in a similar position.
For this update, we’ll focus on Newmont (NEM), as it’s the largest cap in the Senior Mining Sector GDX, and a general representative of the commodities markets.
Financial collapse is a process, not an event.
Newmont topped-out in April, of last year. Exxon, the proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, may have reached its highs this past November.
Where’s The Inflation?
As Michael Cowan has just reported, banks are absconding with depositor’s money under the guise of ‘bail-in’.
If the fiat cash is so worthless, why are banks seizing it?
As Robert Prechter Jr., said years ago, ‘all fiat cash ultimately goes to zero’; the end game (most likely) for the dollar. However, it could be months, years, or even a decade before that happens.
For right now, today, this minute, the data is showing us, the banks want the money; ‘Show me the money‘.
With that, let’s look at the non-existent ‘inflation’ in the mining sector.
Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly
The first chart identifies the heavy volume and then test of wide price bars. This behavior is common in the markets; they tend to come back and test wide high-volume areas.
Next, we see there’s a terminating wedge developing as volume declines; the inference, is lack of significant commitment at these price levels.
We’ll get close-in on the wedge; last week printed a lower weekly low and closed lower for the week.
There’s no breakdown of the wedge … yet.
At this juncture, it’s up to the bulls to show they’re still in control.
Inflation vs. Scarcity
We have without a doubt, the effects of the event from the past three years gaining momentum. Whether or not those effects reach a peak this year, is unknown.
A lot of the mainstream and YouTuber’s alike talk about the upward move in gold as the result of ‘inflation’.
Here’s a little bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else; how about gold rising because the above mentioned ‘effects‘ are causing production volumes to decline?
Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.
Just to drive that idea home, the latest total gold production numbers, listed here.
Gold production for 2020 dropped -8.2%, from the year prior. Year 2021 was down -1%, from 2020.
From 2010 to 1019, gold production increased or was flat year over year … that is, until 2020.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As if on cue to support the prior post highlighting silver’s ‘mysterious’ decline, we have this just out, on Newmont Mining.
Newmont’s in free-fall.
For long-time visitors to this site, today’s events should be no surprise.
These reports, here and here, posted back in April, identified reversals in gold miners GDXJ, and implicitly GDX, to the day.
We’ll include a quote from the first linked report below:
“It’s a fairly safe assessment, nobody expects a downside reversal … nobody”.
And yet, here we are.
As the administration and the financial press, becomes ever more confused and bipolar; even now, re-defining the long-held definition of ‘recession’, we have Wyckoff analysis time and again, cutting through the media trash to determine the highest probability for the market.
Newmont Mining (NEM) Weekly
The chart below has current conditions for Newmont.
Also shown is the location of the first post linked above, released before Newmont began its decline.
At this juncture, NEM has penetrated long established support; technically it’s in ‘spring position’.
The expectation is for some kind of (weak) rally attempt. We’ll see if it’s able to get back above support.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 