Category Archives: Semiconductors

Nvidia … Next Week

February 24, 2024 By in NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Was That, The Top?

Monday’s open could be important for the mania stricken Nvidia (NVDA).

This site’s not the only one figuring on a top if not the top.

Here’s a link showing typical behavior of previous mania bubbles; all-the-same.

Below, are specific price action behaviors pointing to either a pause with congestion, or outright ‘bubble-pop’ reversal.

We’ll find out soon enough.

Nvidia NVDA, 3-Day Bar Chart

We’re using a three-day chart, showing the magnitude of current thrust energy (mid-panel) and similar occurrence back in late May of ’23.

A lot of things are going on … all at once.

Back as far as 2006, the magnitude of the (two) upward thrust spikes has never happened before.

Is this a last gasp?

Price action reached and pulled-back from the (magenta arrow) channel high. That upward move was launched from an earnings release.

Now, we have two ‘bookends’ of upward thrust but here’s the key; markets tend to alternate.

That means: ‘What happened last time is not likely to happen this time’; Prechter’s rule of alternation.

The SOXX index itself plays a role as it had an ‘outside-down’ print on Friday; otherwise known as ‘key reversal’ or ‘bearish engulfing candle.’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Parabolic’ … Is Now, ‘Reversal’

February 13, 2024 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

The Top For NVDA?

If yesterday’s NVDA action was the top, we won’t know for sure until a new daily low is posted.

Even then, a new daily low could just be ‘a top’ and not ‘the top’.

Pre-market trading in both NVDA and the SOXX index (ETF) is currently pointing to a lower open; evidence for reversal is building (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Yesterday’s trading covered a wide “33.6” points; there’s that ’33’ again. 

How many times have we seen that in the markets?

As of this update (8:17 a.m., EST) the CPI reports have yet to be released.

Let’s see if that has an effect on the potential NVDA reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Goes Parabolic

February 7, 2024 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Latest Trendline @ 86,000%, Annualized

Any day now, the bubble pops (not advice, not a recommendation).

NVDA, may have even topped-out today (or possibly will at the open tomorrow)

We had at least two recent, ‘mee-too’ recommendations (providing contrarian signals) for the high flyer; links here and here.

As we’ll see in the chart below, NVDA appears to be in a blow-off top with ever-increasing rates of ascent.

Nvidia, NVDA, Daily Close

This is what tends to happen during a mania top.

Obviously, the latest trendline, rising at +86,000% on an annualized basis, is not sustainable for the long term.

At this juncture, anything can happen. 

NVDA, already had a tremendous bull move from the recent lows of October 14th last year (posted low of, 108.13); realistically, how much upside is left?

Depending on tomorrow’s action, we’ll discuss a potential (short-sale) set-up in the SOXX.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Usual Suspects

December 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AMT, Biotech, BOIL, Bonds, CVNA, DRI, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, LABD, Natural Gas, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, UNG, Usual Suspects, WEAT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Everything Happening At Once?

Not in any particular order; not advice and not a recommendation.

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the 80’s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

No. 2 Natual Gas UNG, is reversing. We’ll see whether or not there’s going to be a supply disruption.

No. 3 The semiconductors SOXX, now have a monthly bearish MACD divergence; daily and the weekly indicators posting even to prior tops (as of Friday’s close). 

No. 4 Components of biotech index XBI, are being shuffled around faster than deck chairs on the Titanic … or, the Olympic 🙂

Seems like a mad dash to add/remove, increase, reduce equities to prop things up. We’ll see how that turns out. Currently, XBI is right at resistance level, 86.50 – 87.0

Here’s just one example from an index, riddled with equities that have no P/E.

No. 5 Carvana is very close to posting new highs and potentially, running the stops.

No. 6 Has Darden Restaurants, topped out? 

The consumer is certainly tapped-out and no-one ‘needs’ a restaurant.

No. 7 Wheat is reversing; It is and has always been about the food supply.

No. 8 Gold, GLD, is currently not going higher (look at the divergences); silver (SLV) is in a major non-confirmation, down nearly – 55%, from all-time highs.

During the 1980s inflation, precious metals moved (upward) together.

Silver looks like it’s responding to the destruction/collapse of (economic) demand.

No. 9 American Tower (AMT), number two in the IYR index, posts a clear false breakout and reversal. 

If rates really are going (materially) lower, interest rate sensitive real estate should continue going higher, right?

No. 10 Which brings us to the bond market, TLT. 

Price action broke above established resistance, currently hovering above that level. 

It’s at The Danger Point®

We can see the set-up, a price action pattern repeated time and again, between the lower and upper blue lines, called a ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

While the media laughs at the bears, let’s just see how this all works out.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, ‘Double’ Divergence

December 13, 2023 By in Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-23-11, SOXX 1 Comment

Weekly & Daily … Bearish MACD

With the SOXX at 52-week highs, price breaking out above resistance, Fed announcement hours away, the index is showing signs of reversal, posting a bearish divergence on two timeframes.

Both weekly and daily MACD, show divergence.

Add to that, we now have the best ‘inter-Fed’ market performance since 2009.

Semiconductor SOXX, Weekly

The chart shows we’re at The Danger Point®

As this update is being created, the SOXX is pulling back slightly, from its early session up-side; currently trading (11:45 a.m., EST) near unchanged @ 544.39.

Positioning

As one would expect, short positions are already in-place (not advice, not a recommendation).

Entries via 3X Leveraged Inverse SOXS, @ 7.14 and 7.07; Hard Stop TBD, but likely to be today’s session low @ SOXS 6.97 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As a housekeeping note, all other market positions have either been closed or stopped-out.

At The Extreme

SOXX price action could continue higher from here. 

If there’s even a hint of renewed upside pressure, the existing short position is likely to be closed … quickly, possibly without notice (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Gap Close, Then Lower

December 6, 2023 By in Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-23-10, SOXX

Look For Continued Downside Pressure

At the open, SOXX launched higher, closed its gap near 515.0, and then began an immediate retrace.

Price action has oscillated for the first couple of hours, testing the gap and attempting to move higher.

So far, it’s not happening.

If we get a lower close for the day, it’s likely to be nasty business for the bulls from here on out.

As this update is being created (12:08 p.m., EST), price action is getting nearer to posting negative for the day; currently trading at SOXX 510.50

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

We’re using a bar chart as it’s easier to see the gap area that was closed early this session.

Warning: However unlikely, SOXX price action could begin to exhibit buoyancy for an attempted move higher; anything can happen.

Positioning

The short position, SOXS-23-10 remains active (not advice, not a recommendation).

From the original entry, SOXS position size has been increased by over 60%

At the close of the day, the stop is likely to be moved from its current level (SOXS 8.30), to just below today’s session low @ SOXS 8.38 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There’s a ‘Hole’ in The SOXX

December 2, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-23-10, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Two-Weeks of Churn

The SOXX, has been churning at 510- 525, for over two weeks with no net progress.

What happens if it can’t go materially higher?

It’s reasonable to think, good news is already out; evidenced by Nvidia’s price action.

If we look at NVDA, using it as the proxy, it has reversed off all-time highs, slipped below support and on Friday, came back to test; a weak one at that (so far).

SOXX Highs, Long Ago

The SOXX posted its all-time-highs nearly two years ago with the most recent rebound in August, this year.

Now, after a subsequent move lower, price action has come back up to test, forming an apparent hole.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

The chart says it all; We’re at The Danger Point®

Price action appears to be struggling at this level.

If it can’t break higher and/or, posts a new daily low, it may be confirming a false breakout (Wyckoff, ‘Up-Thrust’).

That would open up possible testing of gaps (lower), potentially the Trading Range lows, as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As one would surmise, a short position was opened on Friday via Leveraged Inverse Fund SOXS.

Entry @ SOXS 8.59, Hard Stop @ 8.22, Soft Stop (discretionary) @ 8.30 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled: SOXS-23-10

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX (Upside) Breakout … Fails

September 11, 2023 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Now, It Gets Interesting

Not only has the upside at this morning’s open failed (as of 11:20 a.m., EST), we also have an ‘outside down’ (key reversal) that so far has exceeded the lows of the prior two sessions and the prior week’s low.

When A Move Fails

Failed moves get the attention of the street.

Whomever is on the other side of the trade, in this case the bulls, are potentially exhausted.

It’s still very early in the session and anything can happen.

However, the most likely outcome at this point is continued downside that may accelerate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

I have kept the trendline shown in the prior update intact.

What we may be looking at here, is an attempted trend breakout that has at this point, failed.

I have switched to an OHLC bar chart (instead of Candle) as the detail of the failed breakout is more clear.

The zoom area shows how price action quickly ‘gets itself back into line’ and rejoins the downtrend.

We’re now in a dangerous spot for both sides as price action is currently in Wyckoff spring position, having penetrated prior lows.

Probabilities point to more downside; let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘The Economy Is Strong’

September 5, 2023 By in Natural Gas, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, The Speck, UNG

… And Other Lies

It’s been a busy pre-market session; currently, 8:48 a.m., EST.

At yesterday’s evening open of the nat-gas futures (NGV23), it was decided to exit the UNG, position in the Tuesday pre-market, at the earliest possible (not advice, not a recommendation).

That exit was completed @ UNG 6.74

With that done, the focus tuned to the semiconductors.

Early this session (we’re still in the pre-market), the short position was increased via SOXS. Hard Stop remains at SOXS 8.97 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘Strong Economy’ Backdrop

All of this positioning is taking place in the middle of a storm of propaganda.

It’s non-stop; every day, another pile of lies.

For just a hint of truth, check the links here and here.

U.S. food distributor stockpiles are dwindling rapidly (reference links above and more on that channel).

The big corporations are already getting ready for the next ‘We’re all in this together’, planned event as The Speck attempts to make its return.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Positioned At The Extremes

September 2, 2023 By in 1929, 1987, Artificial Intelligence, Mass Psychosis, Natural Gas, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, UNG

‘Evidence Of A Struggle’

To minimize risk, you need to position at the psychological extreme.

That’s not necessarily the top or bottom of a move, but it could be.

At Opposite Ends

From a trading standpoint, this past week saw a lot of activity.

Trades entered, exited, some re-entered, some, not.

The net result was two positions in separate, non-correlated markets.

One was shorting the SOXX, via SOXS, the other, adding to longs in Natural Gas via UNG (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fake, Fraud & Thought Shaping

By far the main hysteria is in AI, and its cohort, the semiconductors, SOXX.

From my first trade way back in the spring of ’87, to now, I’ve never seen a mass psychosis mania, fueled by propaganda, lies and made-up numbers, like this.

One can only guess where or when the shoe will drop that starts the whole (mind-shaping) scheme unraveling.

Evidence Of A Struggle

When price action pushes above or below established resistance or support, it’s at The Danger Point®

When that happens, depending on the action itself, the risk of being wrong (on an opposing position) is lowest.

The SOXX may be there now.

Semiconductor SOXX, Hourly Chart

It’s clear, a battle’s going on between bulls and bears at resistance (blue line).

Just before, during, or just after a holiday week tend to be pivot points in the market.

Said many times on this site, the most famous of these was September 3rd, 1929, the Tuesday following the Labor Day Weekend.

That was the all-time high, just before the crash.

Positioning

There are two positions open, each with a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation)

Long UNG; Hard Stop @ 6.93

Long SOXS (short SOXX): Hard Stop @ 8.97

Now, we wait.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279