Category Archives: S&P 500

S&P Top of Channel

January 27, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, S&P, S&P 500, SPY Leave a comment

Catalyst, Tomorrow?

Is the S&P about to blow-up in a downside reversal or breakout into a blow-off top?

This link does a good job covering the current situation.

The catalyst or ‘excuse’ for either scenario may happen at the Fed announcement, tomorrow (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Rydex Bull/Bear

January 16, 2026 By in Rydex, S&P, S&P 500 Leave a comment

On The Side of Probabilities

Rydex, Bull/Bear (daily close) has just come off an extreme; labeled Now???

Prior, significant S&P tops are shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: Credit goes to Figuring Out Money for the timely idea.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Viva Las Vegas!

January 8, 2026 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, S&P, S&P 500, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

Well, Not Really

It’s no secret the ‘consumer’ is up against a wall.

FRED links for various forms of debt are here, here and here.

Then, we have this just out from ZeroHedge; wide disparity between bonds and the market.

Original website, link here.

Paraphrasing from that link:

‘Expect to see an equity crash that will rival or surpass any seen before.’

We’ve all been hearing that for a long time. Are we close?

Well, some sectors are already rolling over.

The focus (on this site) for a while, has been ‘consumer discretionary’ and related.

Yesterday, was DoorDash. Today, is Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Sands LVS, Monthly

During the last melt-down, LVS cratered over -99%.

The monthly chart shows the potential.

At present, we have a repeating pattern: Spring to Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Launches, After-Hours

December 6, 2025 By in AMZN, AMZN-25-01, APP, Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, HOOD, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

To be Part of S&P

Now we know the reason for nine-straight higher closes.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something’

That ‘something‘, then, shows up on the tape.

Inclusion in the S&P notwithstanding, ‘fundamentals’ for Carvana have not changed.

Here’s a recent report on what’s happening behind the scenes. Note: In the comments section, one reply suggests the assessment of CVNA is ‘overblown’, ‘dramatized’.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it doesn’t matter.

The tape itself will let us know, if or when there’s a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

After-hours high, was 450.00

Just in the past four months, APP, HOOD, and now, CVNA have been included in the S&P.

At this point, we have the following:

APP is being investigated by the SEC.

CVNA, has ‘interesting’ numbers, currently being sued with class-action, questioning the core fundamentals.

Let’s not forget, several years ago, HOOD has its own class action resulting from their platform lockups.

Other ‘Fundamentals’

For those watching, the SOXX is at (or near) all-time highs.

We would expect Nvidia to be the leader (as it has done), but it’s lagging, still below its earnings release peak.

Looking at Amazon, proxy for the ‘consumer’, last year from October lows, to highs in December, Amazon posted a solid +29.3% gain.

This year, it’s completely different.

Amazon posted all-time highs that were quickly reversed.

From the lows of October 17th to Friday’s close AMZN is only up 8.77% and appears to be in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wells Fargo Top … 86.66

October 6, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, S&P, S&P 500, WFC 2 Comments

Chaos Everywhere

While everyone’s chasing after the S&P top, maybe Wells Fargo has already given us the signal.

Back in the day (3/9/09), the S&P bottomed at, or near, 666.7

Revisionist History

It’s important to note, as time passes, finding any reporting of that low (666) is becoming increasing more difficult. Links here and here have two conflicting closes.

The ‘old-timers’ know and that’s what matters.

The Reversal

Wells Fargo posted its all-time high (86.66) ten-days ago, on September 23rd.

Today was a sight upside reversal, suggesting a (marginal) push higher.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Debt … $1-Trillion

September 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-11, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XLF, ZeroHedge

When it Implodes

Is the bell ringing?

Is this it?

In the pre-market, SPY, DIA, XLF, QQQs, all-time highs.

Meanwhile, beneath the surface, it’s getting a bit ‘uncomfortable’.

One Trillion in margin debt as reported here and here.

The Ones To Watch

While all eyes are focused on the leaders (above), at least three markets are not participating:

Real Estate, IYR, Russell IWM, biotech, IBB, and XBI.

From a Wyckoff perspective, for short candidates, these are the ones to watch (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech, XBI

As stated in the prior update, XBI may have formed a triple top within and ‘up-thrust’, link here.

The obvious areas to watch for today’s session, are yesterday’s high and low.

A new high puts the up-thrust into question; new low, adds (a small) confirmation to reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The Big One?

September 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, HOOD, IBB, Karen Kingston, LABD, LABD-25-10, Nasdaq, ORCL, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, XBI 3 Comments

Next Leg Lower

Unfortunately, the (mad scientist) graphic at left, is not too far removed from what’s really going on in biotech.

While the S&P, Nasdaq Qs, Gold Miners, Semiconductors, Financials, The HOOD, ORCL, and others, continue to make all-time highs, conspicuously absent is biotech, XBI and IBB.

Now, it appears that quietly, in the background, XBI is reversing to the downside.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

The up-thrust is there, but is a weak penetration of resistance.

Even so, on the ‘test’, volume contracted by -49.24%, when compared to volume on the upside penetration.

Until proven otherwise, this set-up appears to (currently) be the best short opportunity.

With that said, all other short positions have been closed to focus on biotech.

Leveraged inverse fund LABD is being used at this juncture: Trade LABD-25-10, with stop at the session low (not advice, not a reocmmendiaton).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Old Timer’s ‘Truth’

September 9, 2025 By in 1929, Bert Dohman, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, HOOD, HOOD-25-07, Kitco, Kitco News, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, ShadowStats, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Real Story

If there’s any one interview that details what’s really going on, it’s this, link here.

The 48-mintue Kitco session with Bert Dohmen, is much needed straight talk.

It’s all there:

Official data is fake. Markets will (likely) ‘trap’ bulls with massive gap-down. It’s 1929 (again). Crypto is an illusion. Silver/Gold will correct (temporarily) along with the markets. We’re surrounded by bought off media. The population (masses) don’t think or can’t think.

Adding to that are ideas and sources discussed for years on this site, like ShadowStats having ‘real’ data on unemployment and inflation.

The list goes on.

With all that said, let’s look at one of the sectors (retail brokers), that could be hit hard during a surprise downturn.

Robinhood HOOD, Daily

It’s important to note, price action late Friday, began to pull away from the lows … rising into the close.

Just after that close, the announcement, HOOD made it to the S&P.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something. That ‘something’ shows up on the tape’

Well, there it is.

Was yesterday (the start of) a blow-off?

Froce Index (thrust) was the largest since the IPO, trading on August 4th, of 2021.

Price action is currently (as of 11:58 a.m., EST) retreating off the highs.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds & Brokers … Reversal

September 8, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-07, IBKR, IBKR-25-01, Interest Rates, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SCHW, SCHW-25-01, SPY, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Well, Except for HOOD

Long bonds TLT, have launched higher four consecutive sessions; yields lower.

Two major brokers, Schwab and Interactive, appear to have tested (or, are testing) their Friday breakdown.

Robinhood bucked the trend, closing at all-time highs.

That puts HOOD, in potential Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ (reversal) position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: The S&P did not post new highs. Last Friday’s all-time high, remains intact.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Reversal of ‘Retail’

September 7, 2025 By in Financial Sector, HOOD, HOOD-25-06, IBKR, Positions, Retail Investor, S&P, S&P 500, SCHW, SPY

Canary in The Coal Mine?

Friday’s downside action hit retail brokerages hard:

Schwab (SCHW) down -5.72%

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) down -6.41%

Interestingly, Robinhood, poster-boy for the novice ‘investor’, was whacked early in the session but recovered, closing lower by only -1.61%.

Adding to that, is the table below.

Financial Services, Capital Markets

This is part of the Finacial Services sector, showing major brokerage firm’s trading last Friday.

The upside in after-hours for HOOD, was the announcement it’s being included in the S&P 500.

If you have been in this game long enough, ‘last gasp’ indications like this, are typically contrary indicators (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: The S&P reached its all-time high on Friday

Watch to see what happens next.

Does HOOD hold the upside (starting tonight), and move higher, or does it start slipping away.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279