It’s been a busy pre-market session; currently, 8:48 a.m., EST.
At yesterday’s evening open of the nat-gas futures (NGV23), it was decided to exit the UNG, position in the Tuesday pre-market, at the earliest possible (not advice, not a recommendation).
That exit was completed @ UNG 6.74
With that done, the focus tuned to the semiconductors.
Early this session (we’re still in the pre-market), the short position was increased via SOXS. Hard Stop remains at SOXS 8.97 (not advice, not a recommendation).
The ‘Strong Economy’ Backdrop
All of this positioning is taking place in the middle of a storm of propaganda.
It’s non-stop; every day, another pile of lies.
For just a hint of truth, check the links here and here.
U.S. food distributor stockpiles are dwindling rapidly (reference links above and more on that channel).
The big corporations are already getting ready for the next ‘We’re all in this together’, planned event as The Speck attempts to make its return.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Upward price action in the SOXX, held overnight and then some.
A discretionary exit was made in the pre-market session at SOXS 8.42 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Switching gears, we’re leaving the SOXX and AI alone for now.
As mentioned in a prior post, the life insurance sector appears to be correlated with biotech. It’s a fact the life insurance companies are talking a hit from ‘excess’ payouts.
We all know or should know just what’s causing the ‘excess’, so we’ll leave it there.
That leads to the biotech sector (SPBIO) and what appears to be a downside reversal.
Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Weekly
When looking at the chart for the past three years, one thing is certain; this is not a bull market.
The blue arrow shows the location of a short position opened (via LABD @ 14.70) in today’s pre-market session (not advice, not a recommendation).
A Hard Stop for the position is LABD 13.31.
Since that’s a fair distance from the entry, a discretionary exit may be made by the trader at any time based on the behavior of price action going forward.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’re going to start first, with this link, presenting the on-going fundamentals of the sector.
For those of us literally pulling their hair out, wondering if the dam is ever going to break, we have this link.
‘We’ve just poisoned 5-Billion people …’
Note: The dam break is the ‘event horizon’ where everyone collectively wakes-up. Once that happens, the ‘conspiracy’ has been proven as undeniable fact.
Biotech SPBIO, may or may not have an absolute direct connection with the aforementioned links but it’s the ‘baby with the bathwater’ response that’s expected.
Adding to that, big players in this sector have no P/E
The top-ten weightings keep changing, but the last time it was checked, none in the top-ten, had a P/E.
Since we’re working the short side, it’s the leveraged inverse fund LABD that’s of interest.
Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily
Note the near perfect Fibonacci time correlation.
As of today’s close, price action on the LABD has got itself into a Wyckoff ‘spring position’ having decisively penetrated support (blue line), shown below.
That spring set-up has been accomplished on weak down-thrust when compared to the prior move lower.
We have a high probability of upside reversal, down for SPBIO (not advice, not a recommendation).
Positioning
Stated in the prior update, we’re short this sector (long LABD) and now have Hard Stop @ LABD 13.27 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Update: 7/13/23, 2:51 p.m. EST
LABD price action pushed to 13.26, just 0.01, below the above listed stop and is now moving higher.
Trade has been maintained (not advice, not a recommendation)
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
One has to wonder if the mainstream will ever acknowledge we’re in a deflation impulse.
The ‘inflation’ we’re seeing is (potentially) more associated with supply, product, and population destruction than any ‘money printing’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
As ‘Winston’ says at this link (time stamp (1:21:48),
‘People are allergic to the truth.’
The truth for the day, concerning the Junior Mining Index GDXJ, is that we’re testing the right-side trend line, the supply side.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Candle
Today’s price action is technically a ‘Key reversal’.
As such, the typical response is continuation to the upside during the coming days and or weeks.
Key reversals are not perfect and at times, will fail.
The important session for GDXJ, is tomorrow, Friday.
Continued upside most likely results in exit of short positions (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With today’s outside-down (as of 2:43 p.m., EST), that makes it two key reversals for GDXJ, in the past five trading days.
While it looks like the whole herd is focused on the new mania, Artificial Intelligence, back at the ranch, the miners are painting an ominous picture.
Rendezvous With Destiny
The first two-minutes and ten seconds, at this link, are all that’s needed to get the idea of what’s likely to come.
The market recovered (fairly quickly) from 1987 … this time, may indeed be different.
The Elephant Sleeps
Ah, yes. The elephant no one talks about … or more accurately, are afraid to talk about.
Three links here, here and here, show us the elephant may be about to awake.
From the bottom, May 25th to now, is a Fibonacci 13-Days.
Is that important?
Here’s a prior analysis on Real Estate IYR, that shows how Fibonacci can identify the pivot point, trend and/or trading channel.
Now, back to the Juniors.
The mining sector appears to be under pressure. Each attempt to rally is being thwarted.
Compressed view of the channel, below.
The Fed announcement at 2:00 p.m., EST tomorrow, may or may not have any material effect. The sector may just continue lower …. slowly, without much fanfare (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
So, how’s any business going to operate profitably in an environment that’s systematically being disrupted?
Those that could come up with a plan (for their company or business) in such an environment, i.e., the ‘competent‘, are leaving in droves; letting the slackers, back-biters, corporate gossips, and the incompetent, finally have free rein.
This phenomenon likely applies to all major businesses. We already see the entrenchment.
Then, The Fed
Then, there’s the Fed. Surely, when they see how bad things are, they’ll lower rates; Right?
‘When the Fed realizes the economy’s in a recession, they’re going to lower rates‘.
That’s ‘normalcy bias’. We’re in a new construct: There’s no Fed ‘pivot’, rate lowering, or any ‘accommodation’ in sight.
On top of that, some have figured out, things aren’t quite right at the Fed; looks like different ‘forces’ are at work.
Go to time stamp 10:50 at this link (warning, contains profanity).
Then, The ‘Stackers’
So, we’ve gone from stacking toilet paper to stacking what’s thought to be precious metals.
First, it’s fake silver … and then, even the Perth Mint got into the act with ‘diluted’ gold bars.
As stated, years ago, during the Texas Freeze, when it really hits, the grid goes down, nothing’s working, it’s freezing outside, precious metals are nowhere on the list (not advice, not a recommendation).
Then, The VIX
As if all of the above was not giving us clues that something’s about to happen, there’s the VIX.
If you believe the talking heads and ‘finance’ YouTube sites that claim the debt deal will cause massive inflation, well then, let’s pose the following question.
If that was true, why are gold and silver not responding in a huge bull market with upward leaps (a la 1995, S&P) each day, then week and month?
Those close to the market always know something; their actions show up on the tape.
It could be we’ve already past the top in spending …. just by market pressures alone. It’s possible, all that extra allocated ‘pork’ may never get implemented (not advice, not a recommendation).
Lastly, The Miners
The miners GDX, GDXJ, have been in a bear market for years with all-time highs (GDXJ) during the first half of 2011.
Since then, the sector is down over 72%
It’s interesting, that this high stress, physically demanding industry with risk of danger ever present (here, here and here) reached a bear market peak in mid-2020, just as certain ‘items’ were being mandated.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
As the competent leave the general workforce, would the resulting lack of accountability make itself known first in professions where stupidity causes direct effect in reduced production and/or increased accidents?
The GDXJ is at an interesting juncture.
It’s currently under resistance (blue line) that has already been tested.
At the end of the session today, we’re a Fibonacci 8-Days from the low set on May 25th.
If the index is going to reverse lower from here, this is a likely place to start.
Another attempt at resistance would indicate more upside pressure than anticipated; any existing short positions would be closed (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If gold does not go higher, it’s because of ‘manipulation’, right?
The typical YouTube gold grifter acts like manipulation is a new discovery.
It’s the ‘go-to’ excuse when their forecasts don’t work out.
Way back in the early 1900s, Wyckoff discovered the market has always been manipulated.
His insight was, it’s up to the speculator to figure out the objective of the manipulation and then act accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).
Livermore knew about manipulation and even engaged in it himself. He looked at things in a slightly different way; meaning, what is, not, what should.
A very key difference.
So, let’s look at what is happening with gold (GLD), and where it may head from here.
It took gold (GLD) several weeks to labor higher on ever shortened thrusts before finally exhausting itself and rolling over into a reversal … where we are now.
Is price action hesitating before heading higher or is this a significant downside move in the making?
It probably won’t be long before we have the answer.
Junior Mining Sector GDXJ, Weekly
The gold mining indices GDX, and GDXJ, have already made their decision, reversing to the downside.
Note: Each reversal from a gold peak in the Junior Sector GDXJ below, is at significantly lower levels. This is not gold miner ‘bull market‘ behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s clear, the Junior Miners are in a bear market …
The GDXJ, is completing or has completed what is an obvious bear flag or terminating wedge.
Unless price action shows us differently, this is the current assessment; lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).
Fundamentals
From a fundamental standpoint, where’s the demand for inedible (possibly fake) metal going to come from? The consumer’s already tapped-out and borrowing money just to buy the weekly groceries.
Maybe something else is going on.
Something else that’s causing precious metals miners to anticipate another huge (economic) move lower.
Possibly completely unrelated (in a way) to the mining sector … maybe yet another ‘Speck’ event, shown at time stamp 3:40, at this link.
At the same link, time stamp 5:25, we’re back to the food supply … yet again.
“And all countries came into Egypt to Joseph for to buy corn; because that the famine was so sore in all lands.”
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
CDC Director Admits Vaccines Do Not Prevent COVID Transmission, Blames “Evolution Of Science”
Throw in a banking crisis or two, credit tightening, supply disruptions and this sector may collapse under the weight of that all by itself (not advice, not a recommendation).
Moving closer in, on a 3-Day chart we see the break and test more clearly.
Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day
We’ll zoom-in on the trend break.
Lastly, going to the 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, on the daily timeframe, it shows a repeating trendline that may be in confirmation during this session (currently, 11:15 a.m. EST).
Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily
It’s still early in the session and anything can happen.
This is where the risk is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
