Category Archives: Wyckoff

Biotech … Testing Resistance

April 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, SPBIO, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute

Test & Reverse ?

The Wyckoff ‘spring’ position in biotech was identified correctly.

Two days later, SPBIO launches straight-up.

So, let’s take a look at what’s likely to happen next.

Going way back to 1931 and Wyckoff’s teachings and course material (still available here), he stated:

‘When an up-trend is decisively broken to the downside, more often than not, there’s some type of attempt to rally as a test of that break.’

We’ll use a Fibonacci 3-Day Closing chart of Biotech SPBIO, to see if Wyckoff’s timeless market insight still holds up in today’s world.

Biotech SPBIO 3-Day Close

Starting with an un-marked chart, first.

Putting in the notations with a zoom into the recent action.

Well, it looks like nothing has changed in the last 100-years because there it is. 🙂

Biotech broke down out of its trendline and bear flag of the past five months and has now come back to test that area.

Fundamentals

By this time, we all know the story on this sector. The fundamentals are nothing short of horrific.

Just in case there’s someone new to this site and they’ve not yet got the memo, we’ll add two more to ‘The List‘

Contentious COVID-19 Drugs Are All Anti-Malarial: May Not Be A Coincidence

UK Study Finds “No Evidence” Face Masks Protect Vulnerable Against COVID

As always, it’s the comments from the ‘ZeroHedge Guys’, that are more valuable than the article itself.

Strategy

For my corporate accounts, I’m already re-positioning short via LABD, starting during the last session (not advice, not a recommendation).

The initial entry has been quite small as this market could push a bit higher (lower for LABD) just because of momentum alone.

We see that in today’s pre-market session (LABD down about 2%).

It’s now about five minutes before the open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Panic’ Into Gold … Reversal Risk

April 15, 2023 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Gold Bulls Exhausted

With Friday’s downside reversal we’re now between Euphoria and Anxiety for gold.

This past week was inundated with stories of panic at the bullion dealers.

YouTube ‘content creators’ were going berserk with hyper-inflationist rants; other ‘influencers’ telling us the dollar’s about to collapse; they say the Fed’s the only reason the dollar’s not at zero right now.

Then, rumors warning of gold to $5,000/oz. and higher.

The result as you would expect, is a highly emotional, manipulated public.

Different This Time?

At this point, whether or not the dollar will collapse is probably irrelevant.

Long time visitors to this site already know, battle lines (like here and here) are being drawn and it’s not in precious metals (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, anything can happen and gold could go higher but with Friday’s reversal, probabilities have now shifted to the downside.

With that, we now have an ominous chart of gold below.

It shows the set-up to a repeating market characteristic:

Wyckoff ‘Spring to Up-Thrust’.

Gold (GLD) Weekly Close

Gold’s momentum wanes just as it’s pushing up through resistance.

Obviously, what happens next is the important part.

Strategy

Looking at the economic calendar for the coming week, there’s a Fed speaker every single day. If we’re really at a significant reversal, next week’s likely to put the panic into unsustainable overdrive and mark the top.

For the bulls, we’re looking for the GLD, highs to be maintained. If it can’t hold, there’s reversal trouble ahead.

A Reversal?

If this is the ‘big one’ and gold reverses, a likely (medium-term) target is in the area of $1,300/oz., – $1,350/oz. (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that happens, gold’s still expensive but it’s the mining sector GDX, GDXJ, that would potentially be devastated.

Both the Seniors and Juniors are already printing an MACD bearish divergence (not yet confirmed) when looking at the weekly charts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Spike & Reversal

April 14, 2023 By in Food Supply, Livermore, Natural Gas, UNG, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Doing What It Does

Nat-Gas likes to spike at reversals.

In that sense, it’s similar to the silver futures market; it’s just what they do.

A spike does not guarantee reversal.

However, when we get one like today’s early morning (pre-market) session, it’s time to watch and position for what happens next (not advice, not a recommendation).

The futures chart link here, shows the early morning spike to 1.946. Now, we’re getting a recovery and test.

So, What’s Next?

The fundamentals say, nat-gas is lower on ‘over-supply’.

That may be true but here’s where it gets interesting; supply can be ‘destroyed‘ in an instant.

In the above article, the colloquial ‘ZeroHedge Guys’ with astute comments, shed light here and here.

Moving on to the chart of Nat-Gas we’re looking at UNG on a Fibonacci 8-Day, basis.

Natural Gas UNG, 8-Day

The chart shows a Wyckoff spring set-up in progress.

We’ve pushed below support.

Now, early in the session (11:20 a.m., EST), price action is inching its way back to test the resistance.

Positioning long at this juncture is potentially both strategic and tactical (not advice, not a recommendation).

Strategic in the sense, we’re operating in an environment of possible ‘shortage’ and ‘disruption’.

Tactical in the sense, nat-gas tends to reverse on a spike (either up or down).

Probabilities have put the odds to the upside.

Target Area(s)

If nat-gas gets to the target area shown, we can expect the requisite chaos to be part of the picture.

As Livermore frequently said, we’re looking at ‘what is’ and not what we want it to be.

If this is a medium to long-term move, we’re still in the very early stages.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Penetrates & Hesitates

April 11, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Price Action, The Last Word

For the bearish case, something’s wrong with price action on biotech SPBIO (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the weekly chart shows, SPBIO has penetrated support and stopped-dead.

Technically speaking, as unbelievable as it may be, we’re in Wyckoff spring position.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Price action penetrates support and hesitates … potentially setting up a rally.

Until there is some indication of downside continuation, all shorts (via LABD) have been exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Salt … or … Gold

April 9, 2023 By in Currencies, Dollar, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, ice-age-farmer, Salt, UUP, Wyckoff 2 Comments

‘Stacking’, The Right Thing?

“One ounce of gold for half kg of salt”

That’s what it cost for salt during the reign of the Khmer Rouge, as reported by a Cambodian in the comment section at this link.

One-half kilogram, is roughly 1.1 lbs., or 17.6 oz.

One ounce of gold for about 18-oz. of salt … sounds about right … if you’re starving.

Salt is essential for life; gold, not so much.

Strategy, First

This site’s primary focus is strategy.

It has adhered to the premise (for years), we’re in a situation that mimics Genesis 41

That means, it’s the corn and the grain, i.e., food, first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

A brief list for further review is, here, here, here, and here.

The ‘Price’ of Salt

For the ‘stackers’, consider this:

In our example above, the commentor said their family survived in part, because they had “100kg of salt”.

That amount equates to about 220 lbs.

Converting 1oz gold for (roughly) 18-oz. salt, at today’s gold prices, is about $392,000 ‘worth’ of salt.

When they came out other side, the salt may have been gone, but they had the gold. 🙂

Now, moving on to the chart.

Gold (GLD), Weekly

Gold is at a critical juncture.

We’re either in a potential ‘throw-over’ on the wedge formation (with reversal) or about to pressure higher into all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

We see a rising (terminating) wedge, along with a decline in volume (thrust).

We’re at The Danger Point®

Gold’s price action does not need much of a push to go either way.

Then, The Dollar

Recall, from the dollar update (link here), there’s a possibility for it to decline from current levels; potentially setting up a Wyckoff spring condition.

A dollar decline would naturally provide a likely correlation for gold rising into new all-time highs.

If either one happens, there’s probably going to be panic.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dollar ‘Collapse’ … The Reality

April 8, 2023 By in Dollar, UUP, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Reading The Chart

Before we even get started, let’s take a look at the last time there was this much dollar ‘collapse’ hysteria.

The update at this link, shows the analysis of what was likely for the dollar during the previous round of hysterics.

That was over two-years ago and in itself, highlights the ‘strategic’ nature of the analysis presented on this site.

The UUP (dollar index) chart is re-printed below and shows the location of the ‘reversal’ update.

Dollar UUP, Weekly

That was then; so, let’s move on to what could happen at this point in time.

The chart below shows three potential scenarios based on current price action and location.

No. 1

The dollar rallies from here; moving on to test the highs.

No. 2

The dollar continues lower, tests or penetrates the prior lows, then rallies in a Wyckoff spring to the highs and potentially higher.

No. 3

We really do get a collapse.

The dollar breaks the support area, comes back to test the underside and then heads lower.

Hysteria In … Hysteria Out

Of the above three scenarios, which one is going to create the most media hysteria?

A better way to ask the question, which scenario would be the most profitable for those entities that ‘control’ (manipulate) this market?

If the dollar is still in an uptrend and this is just a pull-back, then Scenario No. 2, would likely be the most profitable.

Played Like A Fiddle

Remember, the general public is being played like a fiddle.

The recent and on-going mass exodus from the small banks to the larger ones right into the potential CBDC trap, is a good case in point (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, it could be as well for the dollar in Scenario No. 2

If the dollar heads lower and manages to penetrate support, there’s likely to be media pandemonium.

That would go right along with YouTube grifters losing their minds … all the while, getting those important ‘clicks’.

If it happens, that would be a fantastic, potential set-up for a short-covering rally.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Beware … The Bond (Bull) Trap

April 2, 2023 By in Bonds, Neil McCoy-Ward, TLT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

… Almost There

The 40-year bull market in bonds, is over.

Until price action proves otherwise, each increase in bond price (decrease in rates) is going to be viewed on this site, from a bearish perspective.

That’s not to say bond prices won’t go higher. Counter-trend moves can be trading opportunities.

However, with market blow-ups, internet and broker outages the norm (think, SVB), taking a position against the overall main trend, is not something you’ll typically find presented on this site (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, let’s look at where the long-bond proxy TLT, is at this juncture.

Long Bond TLT, Daily

The chart may be hard to read but it shows the entire move lower from the all-time high posted on March 9th, of 2020.

The magenta arrow and bar is the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace.

That’s where we’re focused on the chart below, an expanded version of the daily.

The potential set-up is obvious.

If price action breaks out of the (orange) wedge pattern into a measured move, it would retrace to the Fibonacci 23.6%, level, while at the same time, getting itself into Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal) position.

The up-thrust would be created if/when price action pushes above the known resistance area shown as the horizontal blue line.

The Danger Point®

If price action moves into the set-up area as shown, TLT would be at The Danger Point®

This is an area of instability.

At that point, it does not take much force to move the action in either direction, hence the name.

Strategy

As this post is being created, a quick check of ZeroHedge turns up this article, just released.

The article makes the statement as well, the bond bull market is over and uses the 10-yr Treasury to show the upside (yield) breakout.

The bottom line:

We’re in a highly dynamic environment where the typical money manager, financial advisor (as reported by Neil McCoy-Ward) finds themselves “clueless”.

If ever there was a point in time to focus exclusively on what price action is telling us using Wyckoff analysis, this is the time (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Sunday futures open in about six hours.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s ‘Maginot Line’

April 1, 2023 By in 1929, GLD, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, Neil McCoy-Ward, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Strong Resistance, Built In

Unbeknownst to many, we’re witnessing a once-in-a-century opportunity and public service.

Those from the era of The Great Depression, are all gone now.

So, the same playbook can be run without anyone (alive) knowing we’ve been here before.

The public service presented to us, the massive on-going exposure of the financial charlatans and grifters.

You can be ‘certified’ and still be a certified (market) dolt.

Neil McCoy-Ward, points this out in his recent update linked here. Go to time stamp 8:40;

“Clueless” … “Completely Asleep”

Anyone who’s worked in the corporate world (in any sector), especially now, knows it’s near impossible to think or act independently.

So, it is with gold.

Gold & The Grifter Bandwagon

Where was everybody back in 2001, when gold was bottoming in the area of $270/oz., after a multi-decades long bear market (from 1980)?

The fact we have nothing but breathless panic from grifters and hangers-on, about rampant inflation should at least give one pause, we could be at a temporary or major reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

At least with the analysis below, there’s a decision point that will let us know if we’re due for another leg higher, or if there’s a Sovereign debt crisis about to break that would kick-off massive selling of all assets including gold.

Gold GLD, Weekly

As the title says, we’ve got something akin to a ‘Maginot Line’ for gold. What looks like insurmountable resistance that could still be breached … but for now, is holding.

With each (manufactured) crisis, gold’s momentum in the form of price and volume, is declining.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, the bulls (for now) are running out of steam.

The ‘terminating wedge’ in gold’s price action has already been discussed, link here.

Looking at the action in another light, we see a Wyckoff Up-Thrust in the works. Price action has penetrated a previous high and is currently struggling.

If gold (GLD) is able to significantly penetrate the resistance and hold, then we’re likely on to the hysterical predictions of the masses.

If not, and we get a reversal, it’s going to be big surprise for many. They’ll be stunned, unable to move and eventually provide more fuel for the downside as they sell in panic.

Downside Drivers

What could possibly be a downside driver for gold?

One has already been mentioned, a Sovereign debt crisis. It’s a likely event considering the record-pace rise for interest rates and subsequent bank failures.

Another is an ‘executive’ decision that gold ownership is outlawed. It’s happened in the past and those who got through that event are no longer with us.

Moving on, we’ve already been told there will be a ‘cyber-attack’.

What’s going to happen to gold, when there’s no electricity, fuel or food shipments?

As survivalist author Ron Foster says, in this interview, (time stamp 27:20), during a grid-down situation, he’s not giving up his food. He says, during such an event, precious metals are “meaningless”.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (Short) Trade Nets + 37%

March 25, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Just Part of The Story

I once had an Uncle tell me:

“Percentages are for liars”

There may be doubters, haters, even money managers reading this and thinking that as well.

So, we’re going to get into it.

We’ll address the ‘liar’ claim, present the current state of biotech along with partial exit of the short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fundamentals: The Rats Scramble

Anyone with two-boosters rubbing together can see the rats scrambling; attempting to ‘normalize’ the abnormal.

For example, it’s now ‘standard procedure‘, after a Pilot’s ‘incapacitated’ (i.e., potentially drops dead) in the cockpit to roam about the cabin and ask if there’s anyone else available to fly the plane.

You can’t make this up. Nothing to see here.

Now, on to the charts.

First: Let’s Review

The chart re-printed below, is how it looked this past February 9th, as presented in this post. Recall, the actual reversal was identified to-the-day, in this post.

To go even a bit further, the Wyckoff penetration set-up was identified a day earlier, in this post.

SPBIO Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

Re-printed from February 9th.

Fast forward to now. This is how it looked on Friday.

From the chart above, the reversal is well underway.

Momentum has slowed a bit, hence the reason for the position to be reduced by about 13%.

If the decision to partial-exit was wrong and LABD heads immediately higher, there’s still a sizable position open.

If LABD spends the next several days contracting lower (as anticipated), there may be an opportunity to re-acquire the exited position at a lower level (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next chart shows the current trading channel.

It won’t take much sideways to down action to contact the right side. If or when that happens, we’ll see how price action behaves.

Where’s The Lie?

The spreadsheet below, is a modified version of what’s used by my firm. Note, it’s not the actual shares traded but a representation of that action.

The chart has been simplified with the initial entry (of this series) adjusted to 1,000 shares. Subsequent entries are adjusted by the same factor as the initial entry.

For the engineers, the data has been ‘normalized‘.

Working the numbers; we have $43,162.10 initial cost, $59,226.55 at the exit, yielding $16,064.45, which is just over a +37%, gain.

If there’s a lie in all of the above data, the analysis identifying the set-up, the reversal and subsequent trading actions with partial exit, I’m not sure where it is. 🙂

Note: The two left-most rows of ‘zeros’ in the chart are for commission charges. The spreadsheet was developed way back in the day when we had such things.

The right-most row of ‘zeros’ is open profit/loss.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … The ‘Bubble’ Wins

March 22, 2023 By in GLD, Sovereign Default, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

At Least, For Now

The rabid gold bulls … foiled again.

From the last update (emphasis added):

“Gold (GLD) either reverses from here or moves slightly higher to the 187.50-area before reversing.”

Immediate reversal is exactly what happened.

Actually, gold did go higher to the targeted (GLD 187.50) area in the overnight session; then reversed before the regular session open.

So, it did both of the forecasted moves. 🙂

The ‘Real’ Unemployment

By now, anyone with two pension-plans rubbing together, knows the numbers … that is, any ‘official’ numbers are complete propaganda (not advice, not a recommendation).

For example, the ‘real’ unemployment here, is likely closer to 25%, rather than the ‘official’ level below 4%.

Keep that in mind, as we continue on.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The GLD, weekly has the three major tops with the current (potential) one included.

The second chart (the daily) focuses on the reversal; in technical terms a ‘Wyckoff Up-Thrust‘.

Gold GLD, Daily

Right now, we’re at the test or The Danger Point®; it won’t take much force to move price action either way.

Pointing probabilities to the downside, we have a repeating pattern of ‘Spring to Up-Thrust’.

It’s an observed empirical phenomenon, markets tend to go from a Wyckoff ‘spring’, straight into an ‘up-thrust’.

The New ‘Paradigm’

Well, we probably to have a new paradigm but it’s not in gold (not advice, not a recommendation).

That new paradigm is what no one will discuss.

In the opinion of this author and contrary to what is presented here and here (remember our ‘unemployment’ numbers) we’re in a full-scale demand and population collapse.

The ‘inflation’ for possibly a large part, has been manufactured.

You can’t have over one-hundred food processing plants mysteriously burn down (bug, insect factories not affected) with millions upon millions of egg laying hens destroyed, cattle herd at 1962, lows and not affect the price.

For whatever reason, the mainstream has decided to reveal to the masses what’s been known for years to those who are awake.

Of special interest, Tucker Carlson interview, linked here.

Going Forward

Gold’s at The Danger Point®.

If it can’t make it higher from here on so much apparent and ‘rampant’ inflation, there’s a real risk of it being affected by some kind of Sovereign default … somewhere.

A default would potentially lead to a massive asset sell-off; including everything that’s not nailed down … i.e., gold.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279