Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
That’s how one YouTuber described the Wyckoff method.
Well, judge for yourself.
The analysis in question is linked here and the video is here.
If you look at the video closely, the area called out as the ‘secondary test’ can also be identified as a ‘spring’ set-up.
Note how that spring goes straight into an up-thrust; the one being discussed at time stamp: 0:34.
Wyckoff analysis is both science and intuition.
The good part is discernment, the ability to intuitively perceive events, is a God-given gift.
By definition, no amount of Artificial Intelligence can fully replicate that ability.
Of course, that doesn’t mean the people J.P. Sears refers to at time stamp 3:26, won’t try.
So, let’s move on to the market at hand; corn and more specifically, Teucrium tracking fund CORN.
CORN, Weekly
From the week of the Derecho breakout to this past Friday’s close, is a Fibonacci 89-Weeks.
Friday’s weekly bar was also a reversal.
The week closed with the highest net negative volume since the week of October 15th, 2021.
Looking closer at the volume, we see the large spike during the week ended March 4th, followed by successive weeks of elevated volume.
There’s also a terminating wedge with a potential throw-over; similar to what’s happening in Newmont Mining (NEM).
This market appears to be ripe for chaos.
Hitting The Mainstream
Adding to the probability for some kind of ‘event’, the price of corn is hitting the mainstream.
Throw in some real or fake news on food processing plants and the pressure for government to ‘do something’ continues to build.
Summary
The opportunity to go long CORN was way back at the Derecho.
At this point, prices are elevated to the point where risk appears to be increasing … potentially leading to a momentary price spike downward (not advice, not a recommendation).
If that happens, there’s likely to be chaos for several days as clearing firms either slow their payments, halt/cancel trades, or go bankrupt altogether … similar to what happened during the London Metal Exchange melt-down.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The previous bearish analysis was overwhelmed by the larger, upward trend.
Instead of continuing lower, real estate IYR, moved higher. It’s now at another inflection point.
The position in DRV (DRV-22-01) was exited at 32.66, when it was obvious the trade was going to fail.
Taking a hit like that gets one’s attention; there must be something else going on … something on a larger timeframe.
There’s nothing wrong, with being wrong.
However, there is something wrong with being wrong and staying wrong.
If we pull farther out to the longer, weekly timeframe, it looks like there’s danger ahead; possible new all-time highs and Wyckoff upthrust (potential reversal).
Real Estate IYR, Weekly
As with the Junior Miners, GDXJ, it looks like we have yet another Fibonacci time correlation.
During the financial crisis, IYR, posted its low the week of March 6th, 2009.
Thirteen years later, another major inflection point?
Shown below, is a terminating wedge that may have already completed a throw-over.
One probability suggesting new highs instead of a reversal at this point (which seems like even odds) is the repeating tendency of markets to go from ‘spring to up–thrust‘.
This site has presented over and again, it’s a common market behavior.
Getting closer-in on the weekly, the spring set-up is identified.
Now, comes the Fibonacci time correlation.
From the all-time highs, the market closed at the lows on Week 8. The print low came one week later.
Using that information and projecting forward, if this correlation is in effect, if it’s valid, we can expect an up-thrust high somewhere during the week of May 20th, to May 27th.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Using a method presented by the late David Weis in his training video (still available, linked here), we’re going to look at specific days on the daily chart of IYR, shown below.
In brief, the method looks at price action (and volume) on specific days, then formulates an assessment using Wyckoff analysis, on next move probability.
Real Estate, IYR, Daily
This is how it looks with no markup. Force Index, shown in the lower panel.
We’re going to address each numbered bar of the price action shown.
No. 1
Price action penetrates resistance (blue line) on moderate volume and posts a sharp upward spike on Force Index.
Such action can be labeled as a breakout or up-thrust (potential reversal) position.
No. 2
After hovering and then testing the breakout resistance/support level, price action attempts to pull away and move higher … but it’s unable to close higher and volume contracts.
Force Index as a result, posts a significantly lower peak than three trading sessions, prior.
This is the first sign of trouble to the upside.
No. 3
Three sessions later, IYR attempts to move higher again.
This time it’s able to close higher but volume contracts again and posts a lower Force Index.
This is the second sign of trouble to the upside.
No. 4
Five sessions later after IYR comes back down to resistance/support there’s another attempt to move higher.
This time, the range has narrowed while volume increases and subsequently posts yet another lower peak on Force Index.
Narrow, labored upside action with increasing volume suggests the market’s under distribution.
Summary
The day before price action bar No 4., this post was created to indicate real estate IYR, may be in position for downside reversal.
On the day labeled No. 4, a short position was opened via leveraged inverse fund DRV as DRV-22-01, with current stop at last Thursday’s DRV low of 32.64 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Heading Into Monday
The futures market is now about one hour into the Sunday night session.
The S&P is trading down 15 – 16 points or about – 0.36%.
Let’s see if that negative bias carries over to the Monday open.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The food supply is, and is going to be destroyed; one way or another.
The latest in this ‘planned’ series of events, can be found here and here.
More information on the first link, is here. The initial paragraph says it all.
That second link calls the news a ‘Black Swan’ event.
Really?
It’s been known for years and reported by those who are brave (moving forward despite ridicule, threats, bank account closures), and who had insight, times like these were coming.
As a result, (i.e., since the Derecho) the commodities, specifically corn, have risen dramatically.
Teucrium tracking fund, CORN, Weekly
Looking and the chart, several items of note.
First: Volume picked up markedly in the fund, before the Derecho of 2020. Almost like someone knew something was about to happen … which it did.
Wyckoff said it best a century ago … those in the know, will have their actions show up on the tape.
Second: We’re currently in Fibonacci Month 21, since the Derecho. Does that mean we’ll have another market event?
Let’s see how the fertilizer news affects the futures market at the next open.
However, more specifically as posted in this update, we’re looking for some type of ‘administration’ announcement that temporally crashes the price of corn.
Third: Getting back to the chart of CORN, the right side is showing signs of potential distribution.
We’ve had the largest weekly volume, ever, during the week of March 4th.
After that, volume has remained elevated … a possible changing of hands and distribution.
Summary
Markets like to test wide high-volume print areas. There’s always a potential for that type of test in any market.
For CORN above, the high-volume area is around 23.00 – 23.50; an approximate drop of -21%, from current levels.
If we get some type of ‘export restriction’ announcement, a (temporary) 20-plus percent drop in CORN, is not unreasonable.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
On one hand, BABA, has launched more than 60%, off its most recent lows.
On the other hand, that launch posted the highest daily, weekly monthly, and (about to be) quarterly volume, ever.
Markets tend to come back and test wide bar, high volume areas. Just that probability alone, coupled with the unprecedented volume behavior on four timeframes, points it to the bear side.
Shorting China FXI, via YANG, discussed yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation), is essentially a BABA short as that equity is weighted more than 10%, in the FXI.
So, let’s take a look at what BABA, is saying about itself.
BABA, Weekly Chart
The massive weekly volume highlighted below.
Next, we have a not-so good-looking picture (for the bulls).
BABA may be posting a long-term Head & Shoulders top.
Next, is the daily with its largest volume ever as well.
Getting closer-in on the daily, there are support levels to watch.
At this juncture, early in this session, we’re at support now. Breaking down puts the next, less defined support into play.
Positioning
The last post, showed what was then current positioning in FXI leveraged short vehicle, YANG (not advice, not a recommendation).
During the session yesterday, the YANG position was increased substantially. Essentially, the low-risk opportunity was used to its fullest advantage.
This method of trading goes way back to Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb
Livermore:
Focus on the big picture and strategy. Look for the (potential) big move.
Wyckoff:
Use what the market is saying about itself to find the danger point. The point of least risk.
Loeb:
Real market opportunities are rare. When one is found, it must be used to its fullest extent.
Do NOT diversify. Focus positions and time the market.
Summary
As always, anything can happen.
BABA is currently at one of its support levels and holding for now … bulls still have a chance.
Obviously, the active trade, YANG-22-01, is taking the bearish stance. The plan is to have a tight, in-the-green stop, soon (possibly today’s low).
As this post stated at the outset, we’ve got all time high volume on four timeframes: Nearly a bearish case in itself.
The high-volume area may be tested.
That means BABA (and FXI) price action would need to move lower to perform that test.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Huge truth bombs from a just released Stew Peters broadcast, linked here.
At time stamp 15:25, one of the major truths is Taiwan; specifically, Taiwan Semiconductor, TSM.
Why Taiwan?
Why focus on Taiwan Semi and its connection to the Emerging Markets, EEM, ETF?
We’re focused on it because that’s what the tape itself is telling us to do. The EEM, has already been in a sustained downtrend since mid-February, last year.
It’s been three successive (chart) quarters of lower lows and lower highs.
Looking at semiconductors in general, out of the top ten market cap equities in the SOXX, only TSM, is at or below its 23.6% retrace level. All others have rebounded much higher.
As Wyckoff said a hundred years ago … ‘somebody always knows something.’
Meaning, those really in charge (time stamp 2:53, above) already know the plan; their actions show up on the tape.
We’ll look at those tape actions with TSM below
Taiwan Semi TSM, Daily Bar
Moving closer in on the daily, we have the following.
It’s clear, at this juncture, price action has stalled.
Two sessions ago (Wednesday, 23rd) there was an outside down (reversal) bar.
This session and yesterday’s, have been inside action so far.
There has been no new high or low, posted.
Although today’s action posted below yesterday’s low, it has not posted (currently, at mid-session) below the reversal low.
Summary
Anything can happen.
Price action, TSM could launch upward past the resistance and continue to a 38.2%, retrace.
At this point, it seems to be low probability; all the good news (i.e., the short squeeze), may be out.
We’re heading into the weekend and we’ve seen over and again, that’s when things go sideways.
As Livermore said, ‘surprises tend to happen in the direction of trend’.
TSM, is and has been, testing the underside of its breakdown; it now appears poised to continue lower.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
All it might take, is one major ‘Carrington Event‘, Coronal Mass Ejection to rip the mask off Crypto; just as this link has done with the truth of ‘The Speck’ protection.
From a predictive programming standpoint, it’s interesting the typical symbol for crypto, the most popular ‘Bitcoin’, is colored gold.
Which brings us to the actual chart of gold (GLD).
Gold (GLD) Weekly
From a Wyckoff, tape-reading approach, we have to trust what the chart is telling us.
That is, gold has reversed.
Earlier posts on gold and the miners have effectively stated, there’s no more ‘fear’ to be had save an outright nuclear detonation.
If that happens, it’s doubtful that anyone will be running to the gold market for protection.
Does everyone have Potassium Iodide tablets? If there’s an ‘event’, they’ll be worth their weight in gold (literally).
The Noose Tightens
Constriction, elimination of the food supply (along with everything else) continues and is accelerating.
Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on perspective, we’re watching a potential major opportunity unfold.
That is, the opportunity to acquire hard precious assets when (nearly) everyone else liquidates.
Gold to Crypto
Is that even possible?
Would gold (and miners) be sold off to buy Crypto?
According to Kyle Bass in the link above, it’s already happening and has been for a while.
From a ‘beast system’ standpoint, it makes perfect sense, going from the pure (i.e., gold) to man-made, corrupt.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
One hour, and fifteen minutes after this post was released, gold and the miners topped-out.
Depending on the close for today, gold futures prices may post a weekly reversal bar.
If it happens, that’s an important nuance.
The prior reversal from all-time highs … back in early August of 2020, did not happen on weekly reversal bar or even a daily bar.
What does that mean or what could it mean?
Unlike last time where gold (GLD), hovered around its all-time highs for a couple of weeks, this time, it looks like it can’t even do that.
We’re at the danger point.
For the gold tracking fund GLD, the price to watch is Monday’s open at 184.45. Closing below that level, indicates trouble for the bulls.
Gold (GLD), Daily Chart
Twelve months of daily price action shows the build-up, to the blow-off.
Below, we have a ‘measured move’ target completed.
Then, we have a volume climax.
Changing of hands from strong to weak.
Such volume spikes typically indicate the potential for a long-term, sustained reversal.
Contrary View
This analysis isn’t contrary just to be contrary.
We’re looking for market truth. Meaning, ‘what’s the market saying about itself?’
Once that truth is found or at least probabilities identified, then it’s incorporated into a strategic plan.
Go-Forward Strategy
At this point, it’s more than obvious, food and the food supply, is literally going to be the choke-point.
As nations world-wide, scramble to secure reliable food sources, anything can happen. They can even resort to selling-off their gold reserves en-masse, to pay for the insane commodity prices.
Don’t think that can happen?
Well, oil futures couldn’t go negative either, right? Nickel couldn’t surge to record highs on the largest single-day jump ever, right?
London Metal Exchange (LME) would never cancel trades and fudge their numbers, right?
What couldn’t happen then, is likely to happen now.
There’s a chance gold will not post a weekly reversal at the end of this session (currently, 12:53 p.m., EST). If so, it holds open the probability for an upward test or series of tests in the coming week.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 