From a comment on this post, to this from ZeroHedge, now this from MarketWatch, it’s not too much of a stretch to say that things are … well, ‘stretched’.
Today is ‘Day 13’, from the last Nvidia all-time high; let’s look and see if we might get another all-time high.
Nvidia NVDA, Daily
We’re just a few minutes before the open.
We see the ‘spring’ set-up that’s been in effect over the past six trading days.
Will this spring lead to an up-thrust? Potentially the top?
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Seven weeks ago, was this post, giving a ‘heads up’, gold (GLD), had just printed massive upward thrust energy.
A print like that, happened only once before, near the 2011, top.
From that top, GLD, traded in a range for over a year before heading into a sustained decline.
That decline lasted three years, GLD down -46%.
So, here we are. 🙂
We’ve posted massive upward thrust energy seen only once before, a potential top, sideways action for just over two-months; then, trend breaks down.
Sounds about right.
Now, all-of-a sudden, professionals may be selling (or set, to sell), link here (not advice, not a recommendation).
Gold GLD, Daily Close
We’re going to look at GLD, a bit differently. That is, the repeating pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.
Human psychology does not change.
Buying on the way down.
From ‘One Way Pockets’, first published in 1917, the author had access to client accounts, analyzing their behavior over bull and bear cycles.
From his findings:
Once a stock had reached its peak and started a long decline, that’s where most of it was ‘handed out’. Sold to the public as it was moving lower … then, lower, still.
Wyckoff seconds this truth; ‘those on the wrong side of the trade, provide (most of) the fuel, for the way lower’.
Short Term, Long Term, or Not at All
As this update presented, we’ve had a potential top indication for GLD that’s only happened once before.
The last time, it was over four years before GLD, bottomed and started the next bull run.
It’s impossible to know if this time is different.
However, price action itself, will tell us the next probable direction.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Goldman Slashes Tesla Delivery Estimates On Weak Monthly Trends, link here.
All of which feeds into the (EV) supporting side of manufacturing:
Chinese-Owned Firm Halts Construction On Battery Plant In America’s EV Heartland, link here.
Then, on the environmental side, yet another EV fire:
New Footage Shows Abandoned Cargo Ship Laden With Chinese Cars Burning In Pacific, link here.
On the political side, it’s hard to gauge:
Musk Hit Bessent ‘Like A Rugby Player’ In White House Fight, Bannon Claims, link here.
‘Very Disrespectful’: Trump ‘Assumes’ Musk Relationship Is Over, link here.
The reason the politics are important, is because of the subsidies, link here.
On the price action side, we have the following:
Tesla TSLA, Daily
Pre-market trading (as of 8:56 a.m., EST) is around 315.15, slightly below the 50% retrace level shown.
Unfortunately (for them), the ‘retail’ investor, is telling us where the probabilities lay (not advice, not a recommendation).
Retail Woes
Before we feel sorry for ‘retail’, we’ve all been there at one point. Robert Prechter Jr., said it best when asked, ‘What advice, do you have for the average investor?’
His response was timeless: ‘Stop being the average investor’
What’s Next?
We’ve just had the largest downward force in the history of TSLA, a rebound fueled by apparent desperation, price action at or near the 50% retrace (from the 5/29, highs); the overall probabilities have become clear.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Nippon purchase of U.S. Steel gets Trump’s approval for ‘planned partnership’, link here.
The ‘pattern’ begs the question: Can these upward ‘blips’ be sustained?
Blip Before Trip?
At this point, the answer to Boeing’s ‘blip’ from this site’s perspective is no (not advice, not a recommendation).
With that said, the short on Boeing (BA-25-02), could be stopped-out at the next session. Anything can happen.
Then, what about U.S. Steel?
U.S. Steel, X, Weekly
Price action has penetrated resistance which puts X, technically, in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position.
There are several differences between the potential short set-up for X, and the one for BA.
First, the ‘spring’ portion on X, is missing, or not readily apparent like what can be seen here.
What Is & What May Be
Secondly, in Boeing’s case, events have already happened; production problems, design problems, quality control, labor disputes, bond ratings, already present.
Short trade (BA-25-02) anticipates, when ‘the blip is gone‘, focus on all things wrong with BA, will return.
The difference with U.S. Steel, a short would be in anticipation of things not yet present, to appear, such as the merger falling apart or some other event that negates the scenario.
Taking the two factors into account, no ‘spring’ portion of the set-up and anticipating things yet to appear, we’ll stand aside on shorting X, for now (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Providing fuel to the interest rate fire of yesterday’s post, we have this and this. Website link here.
Adding to that, is the ‘big picture’ on US debt, i.e., it’s “unsustainable”, link here.
The strategy on the debt, is to have the situation (known) in the background; so, when things really implode, one is not caught ‘off guard’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
For example, what’s going to happen to ‘rate’ related commerce (like auto sales) if interest rates launch higher?
Short Covering
Short covering on a mass scale is not a bull market phenomenon.
In the past week or so, we’ve had another near record amount of buying, links here and here.
All Quiet
As of this post (7:45 p.m., EST), the markets are holding steady.
The only position open, is short Carvana CVNA-25-02, with a stop, nearly hit on Friday, at 304.61 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 