Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Gold’s Technical Exhaustion

January 6, 2024 By in DUST, Federal Reserve, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Richie Naso, Uneducated Economist, ZeroHedge

Divergences, What Happens Next?

Is gold about to blow up?

Blow-up breakout? … No, blow-up breakdown.

As we’ll see in the chart of GLD below, double bearish divergence on the daily.

At time stamp 6:10, here, in the Fed’s own words, rates are not coming down, they’re likely to go higher.

‘We will need to increase the Fed’s funds rates further …’

Not forgetting bonds, may have already reversed, here.

Then, liquidity crunch … yet to appear in full force.

Next, a reminder, herd instinct is strong, link here.

Gold GLD, Daily

On a daily basis, we have a double bearish MACD divergence coupled with a terminating wedge.

As veteran trader Richie Naso says, ‘It’s all about patterns‘.

Let’s add intrigue, here (time stamp 13:58), finding out what happens in a liquidity crisis, i.e., ‘Sell everything.’

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal ? … Ruh, Roh

January 3, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff 3 Comments

This Time’s Not Like Last Time

The market’s down; bonds down at the same time.

Wait, what?

If the Fed does not lower rates, then bonds risk a reversal to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, no one expects that to happen. No one.

Well, maybe there’s at least one, link here: 

‘No pivot anywhere in sight.’

Bad News, Bonds

It gets worse when looking at TLT. As we’ll see below, the chart has a (potential) repeating set-up, link here.

Long Bond Proxy TLT, Daily

The set-up is not complete and may well diffuse into nothing.

However, if it does not and we get back below the magenta resistance line, there’s likely to be some serious confusion in the markets.

Wyckoff said a century ago, those incorrectly positioned in the market, provide the fuel (as they panic and exit) for a directional move.

Just think about who’s (potentially) on the wrong side and what side that is, i.e., the bullish side.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Miner’s Failed Breakout

December 31, 2023 By in Federal Reserve, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, SLV 3 Comments

Focused Attention

It can be said, nothing gets more attention on ‘The Street’, than a failed move.

If so, that’s what we have with the miners, specifically the Junior’s, GDXJ.

There’s been a case of ‘mystery volume’, showing up in the leveraged inverse fund JDST, link here.

Now, we’ll look at the GDXJ, technical indicators, presenting the possibility for a sustained downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

The failed upside breakout is clear.

In addition to the reversal, MACD is posting bearish on both the lines and histogram. Those indicators have just crossed to the downside.

Let’s not forget we’ve also had (potentially) the largest hype, Fed imaginary pivot, move in market history.

For the miners at least (along with silver), they’re saying, if there’s any ‘inflation’ to be had, it’s not happening now.

Maybe later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘$30-Silver’ … Nowhere In Sight

December 30, 2023 By in Car Questions Answered, Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, SLV, Wyckoff

It May Still Get There … But First

Just as this report said nearly a year ago, there’d be no Fed pivot (still waiting), this article from seven months ago, prompted a mental note to revisit the ‘$30/oz’, silver prediction.

Before we address that, let’s go way back to this post over three-years ago, detailing how the miners, and silver for that matter, are not (yet) in a sustained bull market.

Now, we have the Fed ‘pivot’ set-up and the metals (especially silver) posting a non-confirmation.

The (non) ‘Pivot’

Obvious to only a few (like Uneducated Economist), is how the ‘pivot’ narrative is a false. 

Typing in ‘Fed pivot’, into YouTube turns up a massive list. Everybody’s jumping on board. 

That in itself, may be cause for alarm.

From a strategic standpoint, we’re not in Kansas anymore.

The 40-year long bond bull market (1980 – 2020) has been broken. Higher rates for longer, like maybe another forty-years, may be the norm (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Still Down

Silver (SLV) is far below its 2011, highs: approximately -55%. In addition, SLV, may be on its way to test the lows of SLV, 12.50 – 13.50. More on that in another post.

Silver SLV, Daily

The chart shows we’ve had a false breakout (Wyckoff up-thrust), then reversal, and now an apparent test that has (so far) pivoted lower.

The inference is, the silver market’s not buying the Fed ‘pivot’ and subsequent inflation narrative. 

It’s possible, the economic collapse narrative like here and here, is weighing more on silver … a narrative that’s actually happening. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mystery Volume, Short Fund, JDST

December 29, 2023 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 2 Comments

Watch The Tape

Something’s going on in the Leveraged Inverse Fund, JDST. 

It’s signaling us; ’Hey, look at me.’

Hourly volume increased late yesterday and into this session. 

The change stands out on the chart as we’ll see below.

Leveraged Inverse JDST, Hourly

Increased volume at the beginning and end of the session is normal for typically any market.

What’s not normal, is an increase in volume in the middle, or before the last hour of the session.

Two hours before the close yesterday, 3.8-million shares, or approximately $20 million in value was traded.

If that was important, we’re about to find out.

Also note the nascent trend over the past few hours.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Blow-Up or Breakout … Biotech

December 27, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, XBI

The XBI, P&F Count

Biotech XBI, is now at the point where any substantial move upward, results in a ‘change of character’, the market would then be sub-dividing higher.

The Point & Figure (P&F) chart shows and interesting characteristic; each prior correction higher, reached a maximum that’s just one box (approx. 2-pts) below the prior peak.

That’s where we are now.

Biotech XBI, P&F

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Desperation Inflow, The ‘SPY’

December 25, 2023 By in Holiday Turns, Humbled Trader, NFLX, Richie Naso, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

Who’s left To Buy?

The massive, $21-Billion inflow to the S&P tracking fund SPY, may be signaling a historic ‘changing of hands’, indicating bulls are exhausted.

The coming days and weeks will reveal if that was indeed, the top.

Let’s not forget, if we’re rotating lower from here, the highs were posted during a holiday week, just before Christmas.

Holiday Turns

Markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a holiday week. Reference these links for ‘Holiday Turns’.

Bearish Divergences Everywhere

All over the market landscape, we have bearish MACD divergences in multiple timeframes; Monthly, Weekly and Daily … even on some 4-Hour charts.

With that in mind, let’s look at just one example: Netflix.

Netflix NFLX, Weekly

Be reminded, the U.S. consumer is maxed-out; they’re (likely) finished from a continuing spending perspective. Credit card balances at all-time highs.

With food prices pressing upward and availability a problem, one has to think, ‘You can’t eat Netflix’.

We have a ‘double’ bearish divergence. The daily chart (not shown) has a bearish divergence as well.

In addition, last Friday’s price action on the daily was ‘outside-down’, or ‘bearish engulfing candle’.

Premium or Discount

Using veteran trader Richie Naso’s terminology (see last post), is NFLX at a premium or discount?

Is price action set up to reverse or continue higher?

It’s likely we’re about to find out, starting tomorrow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Think Like A ‘Criminal’

December 22, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Neil McCoy-Ward, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

How The Game Is Played

Watch the video linked here, to see how veteran trader Richie Naso describes trading false breakouts and breakdowns, showing how to position in the markets.

What he’s in effect describing is a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (false breakout) and a Wyckoff Spring (false breakdown).

Then he adds, you have to ‘think like a criminal’ to really understand who is doing what, to whom.

Note: No mention of the Fed, corporate earnings or any other ‘funny-mentals’ as Ed Seykota likes to call them.

Inflation Takes A Holiday

Not for long though.

Neil McCoy-Ward at this link, describes how inflation is coming back (time stamp 21:00).

The Imaginary Friend

We’ve had the markets launch on ‘Imaginary Rate Cuts’ as Uneducated Economist calls them, while in the background, more inflation (i.e., supply destruction) is in the works.

Which brings us to biotech and specifically, SPBIO, $SPSIBI, and XBI.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We may have just had the largest market fake-out (up-move) in history; time will tell.

With all of that manipulation, price action (for biotech, at least) has come back to near prior peaks … but not above.

As this post is being created (3:05 p.m., EST), XBI is starting to back off its intra-day highs.

Internalize It

Referring back to Undedicated Economist, the comment sections of his videos have the usual ‘So, what do I do?’.

His response is a good one. 

He says to ‘internalize’ the message he’s presenting. For example, in this case, it’s possibly the biggest market fake-out in history. Then he says you will ‘intuitively’ know what to do (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, XBI Forecast

December 17, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, XBI

Just Two of Many Possible Scenarios

Looking at where biotech (XBI) closed this past Friday, two potential outcomes are possible for the week(s) ahead.

Based on typical price action, when an extended move encounters resistance (shown as the blue line), we have the following (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily Close Forecast

The analysis shows XBI, is currently at resistance.

Typical market behavior is to come back for a test of the support level shown as magenta dashed lines.

What happens after that in the above case, is either continued upside or a potential failure and breakdown.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

December 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AMT, Biotech, BOIL, Bonds, CVNA, DRI, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, LABD, Natural Gas, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, UNG, Usual Suspects, WEAT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Everything Happening At Once?

Not in any particular order; not advice and not a recommendation.

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the 80’s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

No. 2 Natual Gas UNG, is reversing. We’ll see whether or not there’s going to be a supply disruption.

No. 3 The semiconductors SOXX, now have a monthly bearish MACD divergence; daily and the weekly indicators posting even to prior tops (as of Friday’s close). 

No. 4 Components of biotech index XBI, are being shuffled around faster than deck chairs on the Titanic … or, the Olympic 🙂

Seems like a mad dash to add/remove, increase, reduce equities to prop things up. We’ll see how that turns out. Currently, XBI is right at resistance level, 86.50 – 87.0

Here’s just one example from an index, riddled with equities that have no P/E.

No. 5 Carvana is very close to posting new highs and potentially, running the stops.

No. 6 Has Darden Restaurants, topped out? 

The consumer is certainly tapped-out and no-one ‘needs’ a restaurant.

No. 7 Wheat is reversing; It is and has always been about the food supply.

No. 8 Gold, GLD, is currently not going higher (look at the divergences); silver (SLV) is in a major non-confirmation, down nearly – 55%, from all-time highs.

During the 1980s inflation, precious metals moved (upward) together.

Silver looks like it’s responding to the destruction/collapse of (economic) demand.

No. 9 American Tower (AMT), number two in the IYR index, posts a clear false breakout and reversal. 

If rates really are going (materially) lower, interest rate sensitive real estate should continue going higher, right?

No. 10 Which brings us to the bond market, TLT. 

Price action broke above established resistance, currently hovering above that level. 

It’s at The Danger Point®

We can see the set-up, a price action pattern repeated time and again, between the lower and upper blue lines, called a ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

While the media laughs at the bears, let’s just see how this all works out.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279