Category Archives: Genesis 41

CORN … Contrary Indicator(s)

September 1, 2025 By in Corn, Food Supply, Genesis 41, Ox Talks, SOYB, Teucrium

The Press, is Always Last

If the financial press is reporting on a trend, it typically means, that trend is well established and possibly near the end of its move.

So, it could be with Corn and Soybeans as reported by Fortune link here and RawStory, link here.

Ignoring the not-so subliminal messaging (i.e. it’s Trump’s fault), both articles may be contrary indicators of a bottom or bottoming process.

From this site’s perspective, it’s been a long time since the last update on Teucrium tracking fund CORN, link here.

The update said to watch for a reversal and potential ‘test’.

However, it also said this:

“That amount of time below support seems a bit of a stretch for labeling it as a ‘spring’.”

The assessment was correct. The ‘spring’ setup failed, ultimately bringing us to now.

Teucrium Tracking Fund, CORN, Monthly

During August, CORN penetrated support, then reversed.

Volume for the month more than doubled, indicating increased demand at these levels (not advice, not a recommendation).

With commodities like corn, gold, silver, oil and others, literally anything can happen.

We could get negative prices.

With that said, let’s watch to see if there’s a test of what looks to be a nascent reversal; proceed with caution (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The CORN ‘Conspiracy’

February 23, 2025 By in Corn, Derecho, Genesis 41, NFLX, Teucrium, Wyckoff

Nailing The Top, and Retrace

Way back, in April of 2022, was this post.

CORN had been moving steadily higher for nearly two years.

Using Wyckoff and Fibonacci, the (potential) top and retrace was identified one week before it actually happened.

The last update on CORN, with chart analysis was here.

Fast forward to this post; commodities pivoted, and appear to be moving higher in relative unison.

So, what happens now?

Teucrim Fund, CORN, Monthly

The ‘magenta’ arrow shows the location of the April post.

Moving on to the right-side, CORN held below support for seven months before pivoting higher.

If the labeling is correct, we have what looks to be a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

That amount of time below support seems a bit of a stretch for labeling it as a ‘spring’.

Has that ever happened before?

Case in point, Netflix

Netflix NFLX, Monthly

Depending on how it’s measured, back in 2012, NFLX, printed below support three-to-five months, before moving higher … in a big way.

With the chart of CORN, it’s unknown if we’ll get a ‘test’ of the breakout (purple oval).

At this point, there’s so much uncertainty in the financial markets as well as commodities, one needs to at least consider the possibility of a ‘test’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Selling Silver, Below ‘Spot’

December 30, 2024 By in Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Silver Collapse, SLV Tags: , , , ,

Who Could Have Guessed?

Let’s go all the way back (nearly four years ago) to this post, and the following:

“Think of the irony. The ‘stackers’ (and maybe the rest of us), having to exchange actual money, gold and silver, for worthless fiat just so they/we can buy food to stay alive.”

Fast forward to now and this link, time stamp: 6:35.

How close is that to the post from way back when?

Strategy, First

The About section presents the priorities of this site.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus; with three market masters, that were masters of each.

The insight, years ago, was that we’re in a situation not unlike that of Genesis 41. It’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

With updates like this just out, it’s becoming clear, food is the focus (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Update

The last update on silver (SLV) was back in early October, link here.

Silver’s down over -16%, since then.

It’s even worse for the bulls, including the Rod Stweart reference:

‘Right now, is where you are … in a broken dream’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The CORN Collapse

June 29, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Corn, Derecho, Food Supply, Genesis 41, ice-age-farmer, Natural Gas, SPBIO, Teucrium, UNG, Wyckoff, XBI

Another Nat-Gas Scenario?

The beginning of a bullish set-up?

The financial press says the wipeout in corn, is because of oversupply.

That, may or may not, be true.

Since Wyckoff analysis doesn’t care about the press, we’ll use it to discern the (potential) truth.

Let’s see how it did in the recent past. The Nat-Gas (UNG) low, was identified to-the-day, link here.

From that post, was this:

“Downward thrust in Nat-Gas UNG, appears to be exhausting itself after a 20-month, bear market. Risk is never zero, but currently appears to be at a low … “

So, it was. Afterwards, UNG bounced near, but never touched that low.

Twelve trading days later (Fibonacci 13 days, from low), it reversed decisively to the upside.

The Same, But Not

On the medium, to long-term, CORN action is the same as biotech (XBI), but opposite.

Instead of an up-thrust two-years in the making, we may have a spring set-up, taking just as long if not longer.

Where’s The ‘Potato’?

So, where’s the ‘Potato Head Gambit‘?

It’s possible, mishaps could be on the upside instead of down. It worked last time; here and here.

That ‘event’ went straight across the most-dense areas of the corn belt.

All of which, brings us to the chart.

Teucrium CORN Fund, Weekly

We’re in spring position now (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, shown on the chart is a potential low at the Fibonacci 76.4%, retrace.

The financial press article in the very first link (above) does have some useful information.

That is, ‘spec’ traders are adding to short positions.

‘Spec’ traders are the least informed.

It’s the ‘commercials’, professionals working the industry that are most informed.

Monitoring what they (the commercials) are doing is the potential key to the next likely direction for CORN (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

June 16, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, Interest Rates, James Grant, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Can It Get Any More Stupid?

It’s been a while since rounding up The Usual Suspects.

However, like last time, the stupidity, misdirection, misinformation, outright falsehoods, overall grift and schtick, has got to the point where an update is needed.

We’ll start off by repeating No. 1 from the prior ‘suspects’ as it encompasses the whole genre of ‘non-thought’ by the public and financial press alike; readers of this post excepted, of course. 🙂

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the ’80s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

We’ll add in this updated post, James Grant, of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.

He second’s the motion: The 40-year bond bull market, is over. Period.

No 2. It has always been about the food supply.

Food is boring and gets no ‘clicks’ on my grifting ‘silver, gold stacking’ website or YouTube, so I ignore it.

After all, my business, is to get more business.

Just a reminder, if anyone really wants (inedible) gold or silver (cheap), this might be a way to get it.

No 3. The market has ‘thinned out’ to an incredible degree.

Now, instead of The Mag 7, there are only three and one of them, is a washed-up gaming stock.

How apropos, when considering the opening paragraphs about the overall public and financial press.

No 4. Is Artificial Intelligence just another lie?

Looks like according to this, it can’t be trusted. Who could have guessed?

I’m shocked! Shocked!

No 5. Ruh-Roh Scooby, fake meat’s bad for your health.

Didn’t see that one coming.

No 6. Well, there could be a new ‘scarient‘ in the works.

However, looking at price action of the biotech sector, far below its all-time highs, the market itself, is saying ‘No, not this time.’

No 7. Could the S&P make it to 6,300?

After all, it’s all about the numbers, right?

The S&P bottomed at 666.67 on 3/9/09.

Summary

If there ever was a time as Wyckoff said, to ‘completely ignore the financial press’, this may be that time.

He also stated, ‘reading price action is hard, taking literally decades and many losses to master’, a skill which is never really complete.

As the ‘About‘ section states, this site is one leader’s perspective on that action; presenting it, in a strategically cognizant form.

As far as is known, no other site is doing the same.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Deep Kimchi Decision

April 27, 2024 By in Biotech, Bloor Street Capital, Ed Dowd, Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, NEM, Real Estate, XBI 3 Comments

Time To Round Up, The Loonies?

If there’s one market attracting huge numbers of grifters, carpetbaggers, peddlers, and all-around crazies, it’s precious metals.

I’ve been hearing from this crowd, ‘the government’s going to collapse, the dollar’s going to collapse’, since the early 1980s.

As said many times before, I like precious metals as much as the next guy.

However, from a strategy standpoint, with each passing day, we see it’s the food supply (here, and here) that comes first (not advice, not a recommendation).

What’s currently taking place is so much more complicated (in my opinion) than just ‘stacking’.

Let’s not forget the flood of ‘fake’ or ‘diluted‘ precious metals and other chicanery; like having your coin-shop bank account closed for no apparent reason.

Well, we have to keep the loonies on the path which brings us to our case in point, Newmont Mining, NEM.

Newmont, Good News is Bad News

Gold price has moved higher over the past four to five months and expectedly, that’s been noted in Newmont’s latest Quarterly release, link here.

NEM, stock price at ‘nine-month highs’, what’s not to like?

It’s when we look at the chart, we see a different story.

Newmont Mining, NEM, Weekly

After all the ‘good news’, NEM has only retraced an anemic 23.6%, of its overall downside move.

Note the close on Friday was right at the 23.6% level, giving it even more significance.

This level has also become an ‘axis line’ as exhibited by price action going back to August of 2022.

By The Numbers

When looking through the major sectors, retrace (and reversal) from 23.6%, is becoming more frequent.

Two other indices posting and reversing from that level (measured from recent highs), are biotech XBI, and real estate, IYR.

NEM, What’s Next?

Thursday, 4/25, was a wide bar with heavy volume.

We’ve stopped at the retrace, which is also resistance, confirmed by price action in late December. ’23.

A reasonable expectation is NEM, retraces, testing the wide bar and volume before continuing to the downside or moving back higher to a breakout (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corn & The ‘Potato’

March 30, 2024 By in Corn, Derecho, Food Supply, Genesis 41, ice-age-farmer, Oil, Wyckoff

… A Plan (nearly) Comes Together

It’s been over a year since this post, forecasting the potential direction for corn.

Since then, as we’ll see below, the corn commodity tracking fund CORN, bottomed at 18.72, before reversing.

It came within 0.72-pts., of the forecasted (measured) move.

What we’re being told (by the market) at this point, is the analysis has been correct, thus far.

So, the obvious question is, ‘What’s next?’

Strategy First

For a potential answer and set-up, let’s not forget what launched CORN, in the first place, the Derecho, way back in August of 2020.

Noting the chart in the link above, we have a change of character; massive volume in the weeks leading up to the weather ‘event’.

Someone’s opening a huge position ahead of time.

Now, four years later, CORN hits its forecasted (retrace) target and is reversing. Is it time to go long?

Under ‘normal’ market conditions, that answer would probably be yes. (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, we should all know by now, we’re not in normal conditions and probably won’t be for years, if not decades.

No, we’re still waiting for the ‘Potato Head Gambit‘.

“What we’re looking for here, is some kind of Jimmy Carter type stunt where corn exports are halted in the name of ‘national security’ or some such thing.”

Corn Tracking Fund CORN, Weekly

Two Fibonacci projections are overlaid on the chart.

First, a simple retrace starting near ‘Derecho’ lows, to highs set during the week of April 29th, 2022.

Second, a counter-trend projection from those highs to the intermediate lows set during week of May 19th, 2023 and highs of June 23rd, week, the same year.

CORN has retraced 61.8%, which is also the 1:1 counter-trend projection. In addition, it’s the measured move from the wedge break.

The market has effectively confirmed the support area.

Oil Goes Negative … And Corn?

Remember that ‘anything can happen’. Oil futures made history by going negative.

We’re in a new construct, a new paradigm, our strategy should match accordingly.

Everyone has their own perspective and plan for the markets; fair enough.

From here, CORN could continue to new, all-time highs.

However, for my accounts, I’ll wait until such time it appears the downside risk is removed as much as possible.

One potential area for that ‘removal’ is the 76.4%, retrace in the vicinity of CORN @ 16 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Breakout or Fake-Out ?

March 16, 2024 By in Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Inflation, Sovereign Default, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Everybody’s, Been Waiting

How long has it been?

How long have we heard incessant rants, gold and silver hyper-launch is imminent?

Sure, I like gold as much as the next guy. It feels good when you hear the ‘clink’ of real money in your hands.

However, one has to remain unbiased and look at what price action, the market is actually telling us.

Strategy First

Since December 2020, this site has proposed, we’re in a situation similar to Genesis 41; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

In this post (two years ago), an observation, ‘stackers’ may be forced to liquidate just to survive.

Now, we have this and this. On that second link, the comments tell the real story:

‘… people are selling their silver because they need cash.’

With that, let’s look at the chart of gold, GLD.

Gold GLD, Weekly Bar

We’ve seen it before, the set-up, The Danger Point®

Let’s add some insight to this picture, hidden in the chart; we have the following:

Look at how much time it’s taken GLD, to go from the bottom of the range to the top; longer each time and with less energy, shown by the decline in (upside) volume.

Longer & Less

Takes longer and less energy.

Still, that does not guarantee anything. Gold cold just keep on grinding higher.

However, probabilities suggest (the chart itself) we may be at or near, a pivot to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

December 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AMT, Biotech, BOIL, Bonds, CVNA, DRI, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, LABD, Natural Gas, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, UNG, Usual Suspects, WEAT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Everything Happening At Once?

Not in any particular order; not advice and not a recommendation.

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the 80’s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

No. 2 Natual Gas UNG, is reversing. We’ll see whether or not there’s going to be a supply disruption.

No. 3 The semiconductors SOXX, now have a monthly bearish MACD divergence; daily and the weekly indicators posting even to prior tops (as of Friday’s close). 

No. 4 Components of biotech index XBI, are being shuffled around faster than deck chairs on the Titanic … or, the Olympic 🙂

Seems like a mad dash to add/remove, increase, reduce equities to prop things up. We’ll see how that turns out. Currently, XBI is right at resistance level, 86.50 – 87.0

Here’s just one example from an index, riddled with equities that have no P/E.

No. 5 Carvana is very close to posting new highs and potentially, running the stops.

No. 6 Has Darden Restaurants, topped out? 

The consumer is certainly tapped-out and no-one ‘needs’ a restaurant.

No. 7 Wheat is reversing; It is and has always been about the food supply.

No. 8 Gold, GLD, is currently not going higher (look at the divergences); silver (SLV) is in a major non-confirmation, down nearly – 55%, from all-time highs.

During the 1980s inflation, precious metals moved (upward) together.

Silver looks like it’s responding to the destruction/collapse of (economic) demand.

No. 9 American Tower (AMT), number two in the IYR index, posts a clear false breakout and reversal. 

If rates really are going (materially) lower, interest rate sensitive real estate should continue going higher, right?

No. 10 Which brings us to the bond market, TLT. 

Price action broke above established resistance, currently hovering above that level. 

It’s at The Danger Point®

We can see the set-up, a price action pattern repeated time and again, between the lower and upper blue lines, called a ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

While the media laughs at the bears, let’s just see how this all works out.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When Costco Sells Gold

October 1, 2023 By in China, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, serpentza, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Mother of All Contrary Indicators

This has to be it, right?

Selling gold in a supermarket; an expensive commodity, peddled to the least informed and least capitalized segment of the public.

Once that market’s saturated, who’s left?

Going Down Memory Lane

It’s been nearly three years since this post.

From a long-term strategy standpoint, this site has been consistent; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next shoe has yet to drop on how or what’s going to be used to extract (or confiscate) precious metals from the (stacking) proletariat.

With craziness by the day, anything can happen.

Gold: Turning Points & Technical

So far, it’s been three-for-three (here, here and here) identifying recent significant technical conditions and turning points for gold, GLD.

At this juncture, the dollar collapse, and the silver/gold bull launch are just not happening. It’s not there … something else is going on (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re in the middle of a massive sovereign bankruptcy (Time Stamp 7:10) that’s never happened before.

What’s going on behind the scenes is not visible to us.

However, from a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, those (hidden) actions and decisions show up on the chart(s).

Contrary Indicator

Remember Baghdad Bob?

Constantly giving press conferences discussing the strength of the military campaign when the exact opposite was true.

It may be so with gold as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

The local supermarket has decided, after a 22-year long bull market, it’s ‘safe’ for profit.

The hapless public is now standing at the gold kiosk; with face-mask firmly secured, arm bandaged from the latest booster, EV FOB in hand (or pocket), hypnotized into yet another mania.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279