Category Archives: Gold Miners

Miners Test The ‘Implosion’

February 15, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 1 Comment

Coming Back To Resistance

Less than seven trading hours after this update, the miners (GDXJ) imploded:

Price action collapsed -6.41%, in a single day.

Now, it’s early in the session (10:57 a.m., EST) and the Juniors have come back up to test that breakdown.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

Along with the upside test, we have a trading channel that’s clearly defined.

Even as this post is being created, price action is pulling back from the test, adding confirmation to the channel.

Typical short trading vehicles for the miners are DUST and JDST for Seniors and Juniors respectively (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Break Down … Again

February 10, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 2 Comments

A Strategic Bear Market

The gold/silver miners are breaking down, yet again.

The last update on GDXJ, link here, said to watch for a potential (bear market) reversal and upward correction.

We got the reversal, but it was weak, barely making it past a 23.6%, retrace before heading lower again.

Now, we’re in a ‘spot of bother’ as the Brits would say. 

The Juniors are at the edge of a multi-year wedge formation, ready to break lower.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

The chart is long-term, locating strategic updates on GDXJ.

Note: Update No. 4, is this one 🙂

No. 1: ’What’s Wrong’, link here. No. 2: ’Timeline’s End’, link here. No. 3: ’Failed Breakout’, link here.

What’s Next?

At this juncture, the wedge boundary, anything can happen. 

Typical vehicles for shorting the indices, GDX, GDXJ, are DUST, and JDST, respectively (not advice, not a recommendation).

If GDXJ, heads lower from here, we’ll discuss trendlines and a measured move in the next update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Someone’s Betting Big on Biotech

February 2, 2024 By in Biotech, BIS, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IBB, JDST

Watch The Volume

There’ve been strange ‘goings on’ in the biotech sector.

Not on the long side, but the short side.

Big money moves slowly, is patient. It takes time to establish a strategic position (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s what could be happening going short biotech as we’ll see below.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse Fund, BIS Daily

The BIS fund attempts to provide -2X leverage on the sector fund IBB.

It’s not heavily traded with daily volume typically low; that is, until a couple of weeks ago.

Starting on January 22nd, and for the next two weeks, someone has traded a million-share block (in total), possibly betting on the downside of IBB.

As can be seen from the chart, similar block volumes are nowhere to be found.

This type of activity is not unlike the ‘mystery volume‘ that showed up in the JDST.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Miner Failures

January 20, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, JDST, ZeroHedge

One Failed Move, After Another

If it’s not working, get out or change sides.

For Junior Miners GDXJ, it’s the bullish case that’s not working.

But wait! What about ‘inflation’?

Here’s just one example of where the so-called ‘inflation’ is coming from: supply disruption and destruction.

Junior Gold Miners GDXJ, Weekly

As this post said, few things get more attention on The Street, than a failed move.

The chart shows at least three potential bullish set-ups that have failed.

Fail, fail, fail; what do we think GDXJ, will do at Monday’s open. Are we going higher?

Well, anything can happen; there’s a gap on the daily chart that could be filled. 

However, posting lower levels might be just getting started (not advice, not a recommendation).

Depending on Monday’s action we may have confirmation of a downside trend and channel.

More on that at the next update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Interest Rate Snare

January 11, 2024 By in DUST, Ed Dowd, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, JDST, SLV, Wyckoff

Manipulated Into The Trap

‘They [The Fed] are totally tricking the markets’ (time stamp 3:30), link here.

Yes, it’s a real chess game going on and the other side, makes up the rules.

This update presents that despite all the manipulation and head-fakes, significant market pivots in the miners were identified (correctly) with Wyckoff analysis.

That analysis, in turn, helped develop a long-term strategy (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

Three key points are shown on the chart. 

The first goes all the way back to October of 2020, link here. There’s something wrong with the miners.

Potential for another downward pivot, link here, was identified to-the-week, if not, to-the-day.

The subsequent move printed the most impulsive price action since the spike melt-down of early 2020.

Which brings us to today.

Another potential pivot has been identified, link here.

As of this post (11:20 a.m., EST) the Juniors GDXJ, continue to rachet lower.

The Long Term

As Ed Dowd points out in this interview, what’s happening now will affect us all for decades, if not centuries to come.

Therefore, it’s a good idea to have a long-term strategy.

From the above chart, it’s clear that Wyckoff analysis has been on the correct side of GDXJ price action; the bearish side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold’s Technical Exhaustion

January 6, 2024 By in DUST, Federal Reserve, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Richie Naso, Uneducated Economist, ZeroHedge

Divergences, What Happens Next?

Is gold about to blow up?

Blow-up breakout? … No, blow-up breakdown.

As we’ll see in the chart of GLD below, double bearish divergence on the daily.

At time stamp 6:10, here, in the Fed’s own words, rates are not coming down, they’re likely to go higher.

‘We will need to increase the Fed’s funds rates further …’

Not forgetting bonds, may have already reversed, here.

Then, liquidity crunch … yet to appear in full force.

Next, a reminder, herd instinct is strong, link here.

Gold GLD, Daily

On a daily basis, we have a double bearish MACD divergence coupled with a terminating wedge.

As veteran trader Richie Naso says, ‘It’s all about patterns‘.

Let’s add intrigue, here (time stamp 13:58), finding out what happens in a liquidity crisis, i.e., ‘Sell everything.’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Miner’s Failed Breakout

December 31, 2023 By in Federal Reserve, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, SLV 3 Comments

Focused Attention

It can be said, nothing gets more attention on ‘The Street’, than a failed move.

If so, that’s what we have with the miners, specifically the Junior’s, GDXJ.

There’s been a case of ‘mystery volume’, showing up in the leveraged inverse fund JDST, link here.

Now, we’ll look at the GDXJ, technical indicators, presenting the possibility for a sustained downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

The failed upside breakout is clear.

In addition to the reversal, MACD is posting bearish on both the lines and histogram. Those indicators have just crossed to the downside.

Let’s not forget we’ve also had (potentially) the largest hype, Fed imaginary pivot, move in market history.

For the miners at least (along with silver), they’re saying, if there’s any ‘inflation’ to be had, it’s not happening now.

Maybe later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘$30-Silver’ … Nowhere In Sight

December 30, 2023 By in Car Questions Answered, Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, SLV, Wyckoff

It May Still Get There … But First

Just as this report said nearly a year ago, there’d be no Fed pivot (still waiting), this article from seven months ago, prompted a mental note to revisit the ‘$30/oz’, silver prediction.

Before we address that, let’s go way back to this post over three-years ago, detailing how the miners, and silver for that matter, are not (yet) in a sustained bull market.

Now, we have the Fed ‘pivot’ set-up and the metals (especially silver) posting a non-confirmation.

The (non) ‘Pivot’

Obvious to only a few (like Uneducated Economist), is how the ‘pivot’ narrative is a false. 

Typing in ‘Fed pivot’, into YouTube turns up a massive list. Everybody’s jumping on board. 

That in itself, may be cause for alarm.

From a strategic standpoint, we’re not in Kansas anymore.

The 40-year long bond bull market (1980 – 2020) has been broken. Higher rates for longer, like maybe another forty-years, may be the norm (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Still Down

Silver (SLV) is far below its 2011, highs: approximately -55%. In addition, SLV, may be on its way to test the lows of SLV, 12.50 – 13.50. More on that in another post.

Silver SLV, Daily

The chart shows we’ve had a false breakout (Wyckoff up-thrust), then reversal, and now an apparent test that has (so far) pivoted lower.

The inference is, the silver market’s not buying the Fed ‘pivot’ and subsequent inflation narrative. 

It’s possible, the economic collapse narrative like here and here, is weighing more on silver … a narrative that’s actually happening. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mystery Volume, Short Fund, JDST

December 29, 2023 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 2 Comments

Watch The Tape

Something’s going on in the Leveraged Inverse Fund, JDST. 

It’s signaling us; ’Hey, look at me.’

Hourly volume increased late yesterday and into this session. 

The change stands out on the chart as we’ll see below.

Leveraged Inverse JDST, Hourly

Increased volume at the beginning and end of the session is normal for typically any market.

What’s not normal, is an increase in volume in the middle, or before the last hour of the session.

Two hours before the close yesterday, 3.8-million shares, or approximately $20 million in value was traded.

If that was important, we’re about to find out.

Also note the nascent trend over the past few hours.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

December 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AMT, Biotech, BOIL, Bonds, CVNA, DRI, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, LABD, Natural Gas, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, UNG, Usual Suspects, WEAT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Everything Happening At Once?

Not in any particular order; not advice and not a recommendation.

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the 80’s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

No. 2 Natual Gas UNG, is reversing. We’ll see whether or not there’s going to be a supply disruption.

No. 3 The semiconductors SOXX, now have a monthly bearish MACD divergence; daily and the weekly indicators posting even to prior tops (as of Friday’s close). 

No. 4 Components of biotech index XBI, are being shuffled around faster than deck chairs on the Titanic … or, the Olympic 🙂

Seems like a mad dash to add/remove, increase, reduce equities to prop things up. We’ll see how that turns out. Currently, XBI is right at resistance level, 86.50 – 87.0

Here’s just one example from an index, riddled with equities that have no P/E.

No. 5 Carvana is very close to posting new highs and potentially, running the stops.

No. 6 Has Darden Restaurants, topped out? 

The consumer is certainly tapped-out and no-one ‘needs’ a restaurant.

No. 7 Wheat is reversing; It is and has always been about the food supply.

No. 8 Gold, GLD, is currently not going higher (look at the divergences); silver (SLV) is in a major non-confirmation, down nearly – 55%, from all-time highs.

During the 1980s inflation, precious metals moved (upward) together.

Silver looks like it’s responding to the destruction/collapse of (economic) demand.

No. 9 American Tower (AMT), number two in the IYR index, posts a clear false breakout and reversal. 

If rates really are going (materially) lower, interest rate sensitive real estate should continue going higher, right?

No. 10 Which brings us to the bond market, TLT. 

Price action broke above established resistance, currently hovering above that level. 

It’s at The Danger Point®

We can see the set-up, a price action pattern repeated time and again, between the lower and upper blue lines, called a ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

While the media laughs at the bears, let’s just see how this all works out.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279