Category Archives: Gold & Silver

Going Short on ‘Corrective Waves’

November 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, SLV, SPBIO, SRS, SRS-23-04, XBI, ZeroHedge, zsl, ZSL-23-01 2 Comments

All The Same ‘Look’

Did we just have the largest bull trap in market history?

Now, after the bulls (may) have been caught off-guard, we have this; the specter of ‘deflation‘ and demand destruction.

Last Tuesday’s CPI report provided a backdrop for the continued squeeze higher.

Over the past several weeks, at least three markets have developed the same (bearish) ‘look’.

They’re posting corrective ‘a-b-c’ price action, going against the main trend.

SLV, IYR & XBI, Weekly

Take a look, all similar in their formation.

Positioning

As of the close on Friday, I have positioned short in all three markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

The IYR short was initiated this past Wednesday, the Silver short on Thursday, then just minutes before the close on Friday, the biotech short.

Trades are labeled as SRS-23-04, ZSL-23-01, LABD-23-13

Next Steps

The coming week is likely to see one, or a variation of the following: all trades stopped out, one or two trades with discretionary exit, then followed by potential concentration on the best candidate.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Upside Breakout

November 16, 2023 By in Gold & Silver, Positions, SLV, UNG, UNG-23-05, zsl, ZSL-23-01 1 Comment

Above Resistance, In (Potential) Trouble

So, Tuesday, the shorts were carried out on stretchers.

No matter the sharp upward spike, short covering has not changed the tsunami; the ‘liquidity crisis‘.

Basically, there’s not enough cash to go around, not enough in a big way.

Is it possible, in the coming year, there will be huge demand for cash … fiat cash?

With that backdrop we have silver (SLV) making lower highs and lower lows.

Silver SLV, Daily

The chart shows a breakout above resistance. The question is, can it hold?

With price action where it is, just above resistance, SLV is at The Danger Point®

If it can’t push materially higher from here, it’s at risk of reversal.

Positioning

Silver:

With the above conditions and potential for downside, a short position was opened via Leveraged Inverse Fund ZSL

Entry at ZSL 18.18 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hard Stop is TBD but will likely be the session low @ ZSL 18.04.

Trade is, ZSL-23-01

Natural Gas:

Trade UNG-23-05, was stopped out this session at UNG 6.44 for a minor profit of 0.10-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Decision Point

October 21, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Is This The Last Peak?

We’ve got a Quadrillion Dollar Derivative Bubble out there, just waiting to pop … if it hasn’t already.

So, riddle me this; just exactly how is that (likely) collapse going to be paid-off … with what?

Fiat currency?

The chart of gold GLD below, is on a Fibonacci 8-Day scale.

Who looks at an 8-Day chart?

Gold GLD, 8-Day

As of Friday’s close, we’re just below resistance (top blue line) which puts price action in Wyckoff Up-Thrust, (potential reversal) condition.

The chart also shows, over the past three-years, volume on each successive (major) upward 8-Day spike is declining.

The percentages shown, are the volume decline from the prior move higher.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, volume equals commitment and/or energy.

Positioning

Anything can happen.

Looking at the last financial collapse back in ’08 – ’09, GLD declined about – 32%, (very near that ’33’, mark) before moving significantly higher.

If we get another financial meltdown (which we may be in already), is anyone prepared for GLD to drop – 50%, or more … let’s say, – 66%?

A decline of 66% from the all-time GLD high of 194.45 (posted, 8/6/20), puts GLD, at a potential low of 66.1 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver: Breakout or Test?

October 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, Gold & Silver, LABD, LABD-23-11, Michael Cowan, Positions, SLV, SPBIO 2 Comments

Non-Confirmation

First off, before we get started, there’s this on ZeroHedge; Gold price out of control?

The short answer is ‘probably not’ and we’ll use the confirmation proxy Silver (SLV), as our example (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Silver Non-Confirmation

In a traditional ‘inflation’ scenario, silver and gold typically move in tandem.

We can see that’s the case during the last (major) inflation event back in the late ’70s and early ’80s.

Gold spiked right along with silver; Gold chart link here. Silver chart link here.

That Was Then

What we have now, is different. Something’s wrong.

Silver’s not confirming the price rise of gold; Silver vs. Gold, link here.

There’s a massive divergence between the two.

Silver (SLV) Weekly Close

The SLV weekly, shows we’ve broken down from a wedge, now testing the underside of resistance.

Silver more than gold, is tied directly to the economy; over half of all silver is used in production.

It seems, production is about to fall off a cliff.

Evidence can be seen in a corollary indicator, layoffs.

Mass Layoffs

As Michael Cowan shows (time stamp 1:30), layoffs are accelerating.

Let’s not forget, ShadowStats shows its own unemployment indicator, already at Depression Era levels.

Positioning

On this site, beginning in mid-September, short positions (via LABD) were opened in possibly, the weakest sector, biotech, SPBIO, $SPSIBI (not advice, not a recommendation).

The initial position was stopped out (gain around +21%), then re-established the same day (LABD-23-11) with an LABD entry of 21.69.

So far, with today’s action, LABD’s trading around 23.90; approximately + 10% from the entry.

In addition, we now have a new Hard Stop @ LABD 21.65, yesterday’s low (not advice, not a recommendation)

Chart updates are planned for the next post.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When Costco Sells Gold

October 1, 2023 By in China, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, serpentza, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Mother of All Contrary Indicators

This has to be it, right?

Selling gold in a supermarket; an expensive commodity, peddled to the least informed and least capitalized segment of the public.

Once that market’s saturated, who’s left?

Going Down Memory Lane

It’s been nearly three years since this post.

From a long-term strategy standpoint, this site has been consistent; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next shoe has yet to drop on how or what’s going to be used to extract (or confiscate) precious metals from the (stacking) proletariat.

With craziness by the day, anything can happen.

Gold: Turning Points & Technical

So far, it’s been three-for-three (here, here and here) identifying recent significant technical conditions and turning points for gold, GLD.

At this juncture, the dollar collapse, and the silver/gold bull launch are just not happening. It’s not there … something else is going on (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re in the middle of a massive sovereign bankruptcy (Time Stamp 7:10) that’s never happened before.

What’s going on behind the scenes is not visible to us.

However, from a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, those (hidden) actions and decisions show up on the chart(s).

Contrary Indicator

Remember Baghdad Bob?

Constantly giving press conferences discussing the strength of the military campaign when the exact opposite was true.

It may be so with gold as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

The local supermarket has decided, after a 22-year long bull market, it’s ‘safe’ for profit.

The hapless public is now standing at the gold kiosk; with face-mask firmly secured, arm bandaged from the latest booster, EV FOB in hand (or pocket), hypnotized into yet another mania.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

NVDA … Testing The Reversal

August 14, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, NVDA, Positions, Prechter, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

The ‘Downside’ Reversal

The AI, mania’s looking a lot like the hysterical gold bugs from years ago.

Just to remind everyone what it was like.

Gold links below are nearly two years old and $3,000/oz. gold is nowhere in sight:

Von Greyerz: Gold-O-Mania Is Coming!

Gold Breakout Imminent!

Gold shhh…

Gold Probes Multi-Month Highs

“$3000 In Months, Not Years”

Gold & The Dollar Soar

Gold & Crypto Surge

The AI Bubble … Past The Top?

Moving on, this post said as we reverse and head lower, expect the hysteria to increase.

You’ll have to be the judge on whether or not the hype has moved to the next level:

Jim Cramer Thinks

‘Pullback Will Be Short-Lived’

Nvidia jumps 6%

Chipmakers Rally

Tepper’s Appaloosa places big bets

UAE said to buy ‘thousands‘ of Nvidia GPUs

NVDA, Historical Chart

The weekly chart of NVDA from 1/15/99, to present, puts the situation into perspective.

Recall, from a previous post, Prechter indicates, we haven’t been at these extremes in over 300-years.

Positioning

It was a rough day to be short the Semiconductor sector via inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, the position remains intact with Hard Stop unchanged @ 9.42.

In the after-hours (as of 7:03 p.m., EST), inverse fund SOXS continues to edge lower; currently trading @ SOXS 9.78.

The NVDA earnings report is moving ever closer.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Where’s The Rally?

August 13, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, Natural Gas, UNG, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Flush-Out The ‘Disruption’ Trade

About a month after this post on Nat-Gas, we had this on ZeroHedge:

‘It’s Become Dangerously Big’

From the article, looks like I wasn’t the only one figuring on some type of semi-permanent, supply hit.

If everybody’s ready for it … it won’t happen at all or not when it’s expected to happen.

If there’s going to be some type of blow-up and ‘the market’ knows about it, those not part of the club, need to be flushed out.

With that, let’s look at Nat-Gas (UNG), and see if we’re close to a bullish set-up.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily Candle

At this juncture, UNG has reversed below resistance and may be heading back up for a test.

Note the low volume of Friday’s action. There’s not much commitment at this level.

I’ve cut straight to the chase, showing the ‘target’ area where there could be a low-risk long entry if the market gets to that level (not advice not a recommendation).

If UNG, heads lower yet again, it could be the last straw for the weak bulls, causing them to close out.

For a prior example on how ‘targets’ work, reference here and here on gold, GLD.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s Pivot … Debt Default?

August 12, 2023 By in Activist Post, China, Gold & Silver, Prechter, Silver Collapse, SLV, South Sea Bubble

SLV, Targeting Single Digits

Silver’s an industrial metal and that industry worldwide, is in full-blown collapse.

Maersk reports shipping trade implodes.

Warehouse vacancy space in California’s industrial sector is increasing and the consumer, may have finally spent themselves into oblivion.

Let’s throw on top, the food supply continues to contract just as forecast.

With all that, one can ask:

‘Just how’s silver going to enter into a bull market under these conditions?’

So far, since this post and this one, over two years ago, it hasn’t (not advice, not a recommendation).

A New Down Channel

Silver continues its bear market that started way back in April, of 2011.

However, early-May and late-July peaks in SLV, appear to confirm the right side of a new down channel.

Silver SLV, Monthly Candle

With successive hits on the right side, trending down, there appears to be a significant barrier to moving higher.

The next chart uses a standard Fibonacci projection tool, showing potential downside targets.

The critical area on the chart is the ‘23.6%’ projection to the SLV 19-area.

If price action retraces to this level and then starts to change character, it’s a possible bullish indication.

If not, and we push lower, SLV then continues on with its decade-long decline.

Sovereign Default … Waiting

There’s a lot of world-wide debt built up in the system.

China appears ready to collapse into a real estate depression … probably co-incident with our own.

Couple that with record level stock valuations, record margin borrowing and mass psychosis, not seen since at least South Sea Bubble of 1720.

Could it be, among many trigger-events, we get a sovereign debt crisis (assets dumped to pay debt) that send both gold and silver to much lower levels?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tales of The SOXX Top

August 2, 2023 By in 1987, Bonds, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Prechter, SOXS, SOXX, TLT, Wyckoff 4 Comments

Was It August 1st?

Was yesterday, the day?

The day the SOXX, closed higher but failed to print a new high.

It’s now early in the session (9:55 a.m., EST) and we have a new daily low.

There have been sell signals before but this one has a different ‘feel’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, bonds (TLT) gapped open lower and broke below support; rates are rising … again.

The 1987 Set-Up

Those old enough, remember the set-up. Rates up (bonds down) and market rising to all-time highs at the same time.

A chart of the ’87 crash is here. Note, the high was in August, that year.

Now, a video from Robert Prechter, about the current historic extremes.

‘Not since the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s’

Couple all of that with bonds (TLT) breaking down and we could have that ‘inflection point’, saying we’ve reached the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Mania Goes ‘Manic’

Going back to this post, it said to expect the AI proaganda to increase as we reach the top and reverse down.

If yesterday was that day, then we’ve got more articles coming about the downside being a ‘buying opportunity’.

It’s been the same throughout history

From a positioning standpoint and Wyckoff analysis perspective, under such conditions, one is to pick the weakest market to short and not the strongest (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Gold Miners, GDXJ, Bear Market

The last update showed how positions can be de-risked.

There’s always uncertainty but working long enough in the markets and eventually an understanding is formed on how the game is played.

Fake, fabricated or ‘serendipitous’ news articles getting the public on the wrong side, are just part of the game.

In the early session, the GDXJ, is continuing its move lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Niger News, De-Risks ‘Short’

July 31, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Positions, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Gold Output Miniscule, On World Stage

A military coup in Niger results in gold shipment suspension.

Correspondingly, the mining sector along with gold and silver, are higher.

The real question is, will gold, silver, and the miners continue upward or is this just an excuse to force out the weak (short-positioned) hands?

If we look at the facts, such as Niger’s gold output compared to the rest of the world, it’s miniscule; hardly a blip and production is decreasing.

Add in, the mining sector has not been in a bull market for years, and we’ll surmise, the current move higher has low probability of continuing (not advice, not a recommendation).

For today’s session (as of 3:11 p.m., EST), price action has effectively been slammed into resistance as shown.

Junior Gold Miners GDXJ, Daily

For positioning short (via JDST) this is potentially a low-risk area (not advice, not a recommendation).

There would need to be continued demand for a move higher past the resistance area (blue line).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279