Category Archives: Gold & Silver

Mystery Volume, Short Fund, JDST

December 29, 2023 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 2 Comments

Watch The Tape

Something’s going on in the Leveraged Inverse Fund, JDST. 

It’s signaling us; ’Hey, look at me.’

Hourly volume increased late yesterday and into this session. 

The change stands out on the chart as we’ll see below.

Leveraged Inverse JDST, Hourly

Increased volume at the beginning and end of the session is normal for typically any market.

What’s not normal, is an increase in volume in the middle, or before the last hour of the session.

Two hours before the close yesterday, 3.8-million shares, or approximately $20 million in value was traded.

If that was important, we’re about to find out.

Also note the nascent trend over the past few hours.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

December 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AMT, Biotech, BOIL, Bonds, CVNA, DRI, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, LABD, Natural Gas, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, UNG, Usual Suspects, WEAT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Everything Happening At Once?

Not in any particular order; not advice and not a recommendation.

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the 80’s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

No. 2 Natual Gas UNG, is reversing. We’ll see whether or not there’s going to be a supply disruption.

No. 3 The semiconductors SOXX, now have a monthly bearish MACD divergence; daily and the weekly indicators posting even to prior tops (as of Friday’s close). 

No. 4 Components of biotech index XBI, are being shuffled around faster than deck chairs on the Titanic … or, the Olympic 🙂

Seems like a mad dash to add/remove, increase, reduce equities to prop things up. We’ll see how that turns out. Currently, XBI is right at resistance level, 86.50 – 87.0

Here’s just one example from an index, riddled with equities that have no P/E.

No. 5 Carvana is very close to posting new highs and potentially, running the stops.

No. 6 Has Darden Restaurants, topped out? 

The consumer is certainly tapped-out and no-one ‘needs’ a restaurant.

No. 7 Wheat is reversing; It is and has always been about the food supply.

No. 8 Gold, GLD, is currently not going higher (look at the divergences); silver (SLV) is in a major non-confirmation, down nearly – 55%, from all-time highs.

During the 1980s inflation, precious metals moved (upward) together.

Silver looks like it’s responding to the destruction/collapse of (economic) demand.

No. 9 American Tower (AMT), number two in the IYR index, posts a clear false breakout and reversal. 

If rates really are going (materially) lower, interest rate sensitive real estate should continue going higher, right?

No. 10 Which brings us to the bond market, TLT. 

Price action broke above established resistance, currently hovering above that level. 

It’s at The Danger Point®

We can see the set-up, a price action pattern repeated time and again, between the lower and upper blue lines, called a ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

While the media laughs at the bears, let’s just see how this all works out.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Turnaround Tuesday?

November 21, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, Real Estate, SLV, SPBIO, SRS-23-04, XBI, zsl, ZSL-23-01 1 Comment

Possible Reversal During The Holiday Week

While no-one’s looking, markets tend to reverse.

Typically, that happens before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Perhaps, the most famous of these was the day after Labor Day Weekend, September 3rd, 1929, the all-time high up to that point.

Adding substance to the assertion, the all-time high (thus far) for the S&P 500, was January 4th, 2022, with the closing high the day before.

So, here we are in the midst of the Thanksgiving holiday week. Is the market going to reverse?

Biotech SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI, Daily

The November 3rd, update showed the target area for biotech ($SPSIBI).

Price action decisively penetrated that area yesterday and then immediately started to retrace.

As of this post (10:12 a.m., EST), price action has printed a new daily low.

Positioning

As stated in this update, the coming week was likely to see adjustments to open short positions.

The Real Estate (SRS-23-04) and Silver (ZSL-23-01) shorts have been closed, with the biotech (LABD-23-13) position increased (not advice, not a recommendation.

The Hard Stop for LABD-23-13, is LABD 17.62 but will likely be moved to the session low, currently LABD 18.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Going Short on ‘Corrective Waves’

November 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, SLV, SPBIO, SRS, SRS-23-04, XBI, ZeroHedge, zsl, ZSL-23-01 2 Comments

All The Same ‘Look’

Did we just have the largest bull trap in market history?

Now, after the bulls (may) have been caught off-guard, we have this; the specter of ‘deflation‘ and demand destruction.

Last Tuesday’s CPI report provided a backdrop for the continued squeeze higher.

Over the past several weeks, at least three markets have developed the same (bearish) ‘look’.

They’re posting corrective ‘a-b-c’ price action, going against the main trend.

SLV, IYR & XBI, Weekly

Take a look, all similar in their formation.

Positioning

As of the close on Friday, I have positioned short in all three markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

The IYR short was initiated this past Wednesday, the Silver short on Thursday, then just minutes before the close on Friday, the biotech short.

Trades are labeled as SRS-23-04, ZSL-23-01, LABD-23-13

Next Steps

The coming week is likely to see one, or a variation of the following: all trades stopped out, one or two trades with discretionary exit, then followed by potential concentration on the best candidate.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Upside Breakout

November 16, 2023 By in Gold & Silver, Positions, SLV, UNG, UNG-23-05, zsl, ZSL-23-01 1 Comment

Above Resistance, In (Potential) Trouble

So, Tuesday, the shorts were carried out on stretchers.

No matter the sharp upward spike, short covering has not changed the tsunami; the ‘liquidity crisis‘.

Basically, there’s not enough cash to go around, not enough in a big way.

Is it possible, in the coming year, there will be huge demand for cash … fiat cash?

With that backdrop we have silver (SLV) making lower highs and lower lows.

Silver SLV, Daily

The chart shows a breakout above resistance. The question is, can it hold?

With price action where it is, just above resistance, SLV is at The Danger Point®

If it can’t push materially higher from here, it’s at risk of reversal.

Positioning

Silver:

With the above conditions and potential for downside, a short position was opened via Leveraged Inverse Fund ZSL

Entry at ZSL 18.18 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hard Stop is TBD but will likely be the session low @ ZSL 18.04.

Trade is, ZSL-23-01

Natural Gas:

Trade UNG-23-05, was stopped out this session at UNG 6.44 for a minor profit of 0.10-pts.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Decision Point

October 21, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Is This The Last Peak?

We’ve got a Quadrillion Dollar Derivative Bubble out there, just waiting to pop … if it hasn’t already.

So, riddle me this; just exactly how is that (likely) collapse going to be paid-off … with what?

Fiat currency?

The chart of gold GLD below, is on a Fibonacci 8-Day scale.

Who looks at an 8-Day chart?

Gold GLD, 8-Day

As of Friday’s close, we’re just below resistance (top blue line) which puts price action in Wyckoff Up-Thrust, (potential reversal) condition.

The chart also shows, over the past three-years, volume on each successive (major) upward 8-Day spike is declining.

The percentages shown, are the volume decline from the prior move higher.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, volume equals commitment and/or energy.

Positioning

Anything can happen.

Looking at the last financial collapse back in ’08 – ’09, GLD declined about – 32%, (very near that ’33’, mark) before moving significantly higher.

If we get another financial meltdown (which we may be in already), is anyone prepared for GLD to drop – 50%, or more … let’s say, – 66%?

A decline of 66% from the all-time GLD high of 194.45 (posted, 8/6/20), puts GLD, at a potential low of 66.1 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver: Breakout or Test?

October 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, Gold & Silver, LABD, LABD-23-11, Michael Cowan, Positions, SLV, SPBIO 2 Comments

Non-Confirmation

First off, before we get started, there’s this on ZeroHedge; Gold price out of control?

The short answer is ‘probably not’ and we’ll use the confirmation proxy Silver (SLV), as our example (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Silver Non-Confirmation

In a traditional ‘inflation’ scenario, silver and gold typically move in tandem.

We can see that’s the case during the last (major) inflation event back in the late ’70s and early ’80s.

Gold spiked right along with silver; Gold chart link here. Silver chart link here.

That Was Then

What we have now, is different. Something’s wrong.

Silver’s not confirming the price rise of gold; Silver vs. Gold, link here.

There’s a massive divergence between the two.

Silver (SLV) Weekly Close

The SLV weekly, shows we’ve broken down from a wedge, now testing the underside of resistance.

Silver more than gold, is tied directly to the economy; over half of all silver is used in production.

It seems, production is about to fall off a cliff.

Evidence can be seen in a corollary indicator, layoffs.

Mass Layoffs

As Michael Cowan shows (time stamp 1:30), layoffs are accelerating.

Let’s not forget, ShadowStats shows its own unemployment indicator, already at Depression Era levels.

Positioning

On this site, beginning in mid-September, short positions (via LABD) were opened in possibly, the weakest sector, biotech, SPBIO, $SPSIBI (not advice, not a recommendation).

The initial position was stopped out (gain around +21%), then re-established the same day (LABD-23-11) with an LABD entry of 21.69.

So far, with today’s action, LABD’s trading around 23.90; approximately + 10% from the entry.

In addition, we now have a new Hard Stop @ LABD 21.65, yesterday’s low (not advice, not a recommendation)

Chart updates are planned for the next post.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When Costco Sells Gold

October 1, 2023 By in China, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, serpentza, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Mother of All Contrary Indicators

This has to be it, right?

Selling gold in a supermarket; an expensive commodity, peddled to the least informed and least capitalized segment of the public.

Once that market’s saturated, who’s left?

Going Down Memory Lane

It’s been nearly three years since this post.

From a long-term strategy standpoint, this site has been consistent; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next shoe has yet to drop on how or what’s going to be used to extract (or confiscate) precious metals from the (stacking) proletariat.

With craziness by the day, anything can happen.

Gold: Turning Points & Technical

So far, it’s been three-for-three (here, here and here) identifying recent significant technical conditions and turning points for gold, GLD.

At this juncture, the dollar collapse, and the silver/gold bull launch are just not happening. It’s not there … something else is going on (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re in the middle of a massive sovereign bankruptcy (Time Stamp 7:10) that’s never happened before.

What’s going on behind the scenes is not visible to us.

However, from a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, those (hidden) actions and decisions show up on the chart(s).

Contrary Indicator

Remember Baghdad Bob?

Constantly giving press conferences discussing the strength of the military campaign when the exact opposite was true.

It may be so with gold as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

The local supermarket has decided, after a 22-year long bull market, it’s ‘safe’ for profit.

The hapless public is now standing at the gold kiosk; with face-mask firmly secured, arm bandaged from the latest booster, EV FOB in hand (or pocket), hypnotized into yet another mania.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

NVDA … Testing The Reversal

August 14, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, NVDA, Positions, Prechter, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

The ‘Downside’ Reversal

The AI, mania’s looking a lot like the hysterical gold bugs from years ago.

Just to remind everyone what it was like.

Gold links below are nearly two years old and $3,000/oz. gold is nowhere in sight:

Von Greyerz: Gold-O-Mania Is Coming!

Gold Breakout Imminent!

Gold shhh…

Gold Probes Multi-Month Highs

“$3000 In Months, Not Years”

Gold & The Dollar Soar

Gold & Crypto Surge

The AI Bubble … Past The Top?

Moving on, this post said as we reverse and head lower, expect the hysteria to increase.

You’ll have to be the judge on whether or not the hype has moved to the next level:

Jim Cramer Thinks

‘Pullback Will Be Short-Lived’

Nvidia jumps 6%

Chipmakers Rally

Tepper’s Appaloosa places big bets

UAE said to buy ‘thousands‘ of Nvidia GPUs

NVDA, Historical Chart

The weekly chart of NVDA from 1/15/99, to present, puts the situation into perspective.

Recall, from a previous post, Prechter indicates, we haven’t been at these extremes in over 300-years.

Positioning

It was a rough day to be short the Semiconductor sector via inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, the position remains intact with Hard Stop unchanged @ 9.42.

In the after-hours (as of 7:03 p.m., EST), inverse fund SOXS continues to edge lower; currently trading @ SOXS 9.78.

The NVDA earnings report is moving ever closer.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Where’s The Rally?

August 13, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, Natural Gas, UNG, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Flush-Out The ‘Disruption’ Trade

About a month after this post on Nat-Gas, we had this on ZeroHedge:

‘It’s Become Dangerously Big’

From the article, looks like I wasn’t the only one figuring on some type of semi-permanent, supply hit.

If everybody’s ready for it … it won’t happen at all or not when it’s expected to happen.

If there’s going to be some type of blow-up and ‘the market’ knows about it, those not part of the club, need to be flushed out.

With that, let’s look at Nat-Gas (UNG), and see if we’re close to a bullish set-up.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily Candle

At this juncture, UNG has reversed below resistance and may be heading back up for a test.

Note the low volume of Friday’s action. There’s not much commitment at this level.

I’ve cut straight to the chase, showing the ‘target’ area where there could be a low-risk long entry if the market gets to that level (not advice not a recommendation).

If UNG, heads lower yet again, it could be the last straw for the weak bulls, causing them to close out.

For a prior example on how ‘targets’ work, reference here and here on gold, GLD.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279