Category Archives: QQQ

Wal-Mart … The Sleeper?

July 9, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, Nasdaq, Positions, QQQ, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-04 1 Comment

Follow, the Set-Up

Is it possible that Wal-Mart, one of the laggards of the market, for years if not decades, could all-of-a-sudden, become exciting?

Exciting that is, to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the tagline above says, ‘Follow, the Set-Up’.

Well, here it is.

Wal-Mart WMT, Daily Close

It’s important to note: Unlike the rest of the indices, the S&P, the Qs, the Dow, WMT, is well below its all-time highs.

Yesterday, was a potential trend break. Today, may be continuation, or test of that break.

Positioning

Short as trade WMT-25-04, with stop at yesterday’s high, WMT 99.17 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell 2000 … Reversal Ready

July 1, 2025 By in IWM, Nasdaq, Positions, QQQ, Russell 2000, S&P 500, TSCO, TSCO-25-01, TZA, TZA-25-03, WMT, WMT-25-03

Looking for, New Daily Low

The Russell 2000 has been recovering (along with the rest of the major indices) from the lows posted on April 7th, and 9th, this year.

What the index has not done, unlike the Qs, and the S&P is post new-all-time highs.

At this juncture, tracking fund IWM, is at a Fibonacci 61.8%, retrace, and giving just a hint, it might be finished with further upside.

Russell 2000 ETF, IWM, Daily

As the chart notes, we’re in up-thrust ‘position’; meaning, there’s no new daily low to help confirm a potential reversal.

As presented many times in previous posts:

‘In the markets, you’re either early, or late’.

Upside risk (on a short) is set at last Friday’s IWM high; risk is low (but not zero).

With that said, a short position was opened (after-hours session, yesterday) in the IWM, via leveraged inverse fund TZA, trade TZA-25-03 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: There was no ‘new daily low’ in the IWM tracking fund to ‘confirm’.

However, in the pre-market, IWM is trading lower at 214.72, and threating to post a new daily low at 214.13.

Open Positions

At this juncture, 8:50 a.m., EST, open positions are as follows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Wal-Mart: WMT-25-03, Stop @ 98.16

Short Tractor Supply Co.: TSCO-25-01, Stop @ 52.93

Short IWM: TZA-25-03: Stop @ 11.68

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Assessing The (market) Damage

April 5, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, KMX, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, XOP 1 Comment

Sifting Through The Rubble

There are sure to be plenty of post-mortems over the weekend; usual suspects giving us their assessment on what’s already happened. 🙂

Sometimes the question, is not ‘what’s happened’, but ‘what has not happened’.

That’s where the opportunity may lie.

Market Implosion

Over the past week, there were wide price bars, with action unstable in all major indices (ETFs): DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, and XOP.

However, what did not implode (completely), are the car dealerships; specifically, CarMax and Carvana.

For this update, we’ll look at CarMax.

CarMax, KMX, Weekly Close

On a close basis, KMX, has bounced off the lower wedge boundary and is near the resistance area (magenta line).

Price action could be positively biased in the coming week as a result of ‘tax refund’ car buying (not advice, not a recommendation)

According to ‘Car Questions Answered‘, it’s a yearly ‘thing’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Good, Bad, & Ugly

March 29, 2025 By in Airlines, DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Three Amigos

The Good: Only the Senior Miners, GDX, have managed to claw their way past the highs set nearly five years ago in August of 2020.

The Bad: Junior Miners GDXJ, remain below that August ’20, level.

The Ugly: Silver Miners SILJ, are the worst, having their peak a bit later in February of 2021; they remain over -35%, below their highs.

The Market Rolls Over

Yesterday, Friday, was a down day for the Dow, S&P, The Qs, Transports, Airlines, Semis, nearly everyone.

For some of these indices, their all-time highs were posted months, if not years ago.

There may be some (bidding) ‘defensive’ action with gold (GLD) continuing higher; as said in earlier posts, the rest of the monetary metals are far below their highs.

Let’s look at the weakest; the silver miners, as they are likely going to be the ones most affected by an economic decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Miners, SILJ, Daily

We’re at an interesting spot.

Friday was a down day that pushed below existing support, shown in zoom area.

We have simultaneous action.

Once resistance was penetrated on March 18th, it could not hold. After eight trading days, on Friday, it posted lower on heavy volume.

However, we can see that SILJ, is now in (a minor) Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. So, the question is, what happens next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

As Expected, … Carvana, Crushed

February 22, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, CVNA, Nasdaq, NVDA, QQQ

Using The Nvidia Model

In the after-hours, post-earnings, Carvana spiked to exactly 310, the lower end of the range presented here.

Then, ending the (regular session) week down nearly -22%.

In a similar fashion, Nvidia had its own collapse; down -17%, on ‘DeepSeek’ fears.

As always, the question is, ‘what happens next?’

This Plan, or That

From here, literally, anything can happen.

Carvana could continue straight down and implode (not advice, not a recommendation).

It could do nothing and just post sideways action from here; not likely, but it could.

Or, behind Door Number 3, Carvana model’s Nvidia.

That is, finishing its initial downward thrust, then a retrace to test the wide bar(s), high volume.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

On a percentage basis, CVNA has weaker action (which may not be finished) than NVDA.

The ‘Short’ Side

If the market begins a persistent decline, will the SEC ban short selling as it did in 2008, link here.

It’s important to note, immediately after that announcement, the market absolutely cratered on massive volatility; the Qs dropped over -41%, from that point.

This time around (if it happens), with a new Sheriff, will there be a short-selling ban?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Rout … Dead Ahead?

January 26, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, DRV, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Nasdaq, QQQ, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, SPY 1 Comment

Break, Test … and … Pause

Of course, in the markets, no one knows for sure.

However, what we do know as shown below, real estate IYR, has formed a terminating wedge.

In addition, it’s broken down from that wedge and is now testing the underside.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With the Dow, S&P, and QQQs, at or near all-time-highs, real estate’s a laggard; posting its all-time-high, years ago.

Last week was a narrow-range bar.

On a daily basis, price action attempted to move higher twice and has retreated (from that attempt) each time.

Then, The Fed

Let’s not forget we have a Fed meeting coming up on Tuesday and Wednesday, this week.

Popcorn at the ready.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. Bubble and Bubbles, Past

January 25, 2025 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Positions, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Once The Trend Was Broken

During the internet bubble of the 2000s, after the trend break in the QQQs, price action immediately began its long (multi-year) descent.

Naturally, it would follow when comparing that bubble, with the A.I. bubble, as was done here, one would have thought once the trend is broken, down we go.

Not so, today.

Instead, we have depending on how it’s measured, at least ten-weeks (so far), testing of that break.

Is it all about to change? Are we at ‘tests’ end?

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

The most recent update showing the ‘trend break’ as discussed above, is here.

The chart below, presents a possible ‘last gasp’ for the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, the market ‘by its own action’, has told us the axis line above, is important.

If the chart is correct and we’ve had a false breakout (Wyckoff Up-Thrust), the expectation is for downside follow-through (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Which (break) is Which?

November 30, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX 1 Comment

Bubbles, Side-by-Side

Here’s something a little different.

Two trend breaks are shown side-by-side.

Without looking at prior updates, which chart is the internet (QQQ) bubble break and which chart is the A.I. (SOXX), bubble break?

We’ll cue the Jeopardy music while you pick. 🙂

And now, for the reveal

Internet Bubble QQQ, Weekly

The chart segment on the right, is the internet bubble of the 2000s.

There’s no ‘rest of the story’ with the SOXX.

That story has yet to happen (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading The ‘Crash Channel’

November 9, 2024 By in 1907, 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Elliott Wave, Great Depression 2.0, Livermore, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX Tags: , , , ,

‘The Big Money’s in, The Big Move’ … Dr. Elder

The whole quote from Elder (paraphrasing):

‘The big money is in the big move but only the top-tier trader or speculator has the ability and skill to trade it…’

This ‘big money’ idea is exactly what Jesse Livermore figured out as part of his plan after years of making ‘piking bets’ on minor price fluctuations.

Ultimately, his method was to anticipate events about to happen in a ‘big way’.

He netted over $1 million, during the Panic of 1907, probably his best example of trading the big move.

Note: $1-mil, in 1907, is about $32-mil, today.

Here’s a chart of the ‘Panic‘.

Look how similar it is, to the chart of the QQQ bubble and the current position of the SOXX; except the (potential) wipe-out, of course. 🙂

Back at the 2000, bubble top in the Qs, we have the following.

Nasdaq QQQ, Weekly

Several trading channels can be identified; the most aggressive, is the one shown.

The channel above, lasted nearly three-months, from week-ending 1/26/01, to week-ending 4/6/01.

Note that price action rose for about three weeks in a ‘January Effect’ at the beginning of ’01, before rolling over in a big way.

There’s a lot going on in this chart. For example, the January effect rise took the Qs back to a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace of the entire down move.

Strategy

The coming days and weeks are going to let us know if the SOXX, is modeling the mania bubbles of the past (not advice, not a recommendation).

A possible important distinction: In the prior update, the SOXX, had two massive down-thrusts, not just one.

One could even argue there were three (week ending 7/19/24).

Does that mean we’re at an order of magnitude larger on what comes next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nasdaq & A.I. Bubbles, Compared

November 8, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Nasdaq, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX 15 Comments

Similar Pattern … So Far

Two charts are presented below.

First, the Nasdaq bubble of the 2000s.

Then, the A.I. bubble in semiconductors, the SOXX.

Nasdaq QQQ, Weekly

Massive downward thrust indicated the mania was over.

The bubble in the SOXX, compared to the Qs, looks eerily similar except the trend break is missing (so far).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Note, in the case of the SOXX, there were two massive down-thrusts.

The second (not highlighted) was Fibonacci 5-Weeks later.

Of course, nothing is known for sure until it’s all over.

However, the charts are similar.

There’s been a lot happening over the past few days.

Those events may have had all the effect they’re going to from an upside perspective (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279