Category Archives: The Speck

Globe Life Crash … -45%, So Far …

April 11, 2024 By in Biotech, GL, MET, The Speck

‘Fraud’ Is The Narrative

Here’s the latest news (as of 2:03 p.m., EST), link here.

Note, the article says the shares ‘tumbled’ … hardly, it’s a crash … take a look at the chart, link here.

The life insurance sector, and more specifically Globe Life (GL) along with Met Life (MET), have been on the watch list for reasons discussed many times on this site.

The Biotech Link

Possibly related (correlated) to the life insurance industry is biotech.

We’ll discuss that sector, XBI, in an upcoming update. The synopsis is that XBI could make a brief new daily high today (or at the open tomorrow).

If so, it could put the sector in a minor up-thrust position, while still in an overall down trend.

More later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There Are No ‘Rate Cuts’

March 22, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Appalachia's Homestead, Biotech, Dr. John Campbell, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Greg Hunter, Interest Rates, LABD, Michael Bordenaro, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI 2 Comments

‘There Is No Spoon’

We’re in the surreal; like The Matrix.

YouTube content creators have noticed the public’s inability, refusal, and denial to recognize (or accept) the truth:

Michael Bordenaro; ‘everybody’s so weak, so sensitive, they can’t handle the facts.’

Patera, Appalachia’s Homestead; discussing her lineage (Cherokee) and history, seeing the similarities of today, applying the lessons; some are more concerned about her hair and makeup.

Then, Uneducated Economist; ‘no amount of wishing is going to bring events back to the way it was. It’s effectively a new construct.’

Interest Rate Ruse

The 40-year bull market in bonds is over; rates are not going lower, they’re going higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Ignoring or refusing to recognize this (highly probable) truth when analyzing markets, is a potential strategic error.

The longer the ruse goes on, the more violent the reaction may be when the masses (finally) ‘awake’.

All of which brings us to biotech, XBI, SPBIO, $SPSIBI.

Biotech Truth

Truth about biotech is brutal; described here, here and here.

Exactly how this will all hit the mainstream in force, is unknown. However, let’s not forget, ‘when price action goes south, bad news comes out’.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Heading south at this point, is biotech XBI.

Market test of the Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) appears complete; previously discussed here, here and here.

As of 1:40 p.m., EST, XBI is trading back into congestion (92 – 96) and looks to have formed a trading channel.

Left channel contact line shown as No. 1, is supported by this post, potential long-term reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When Costco Sells Gold

October 1, 2023 By in China, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, serpentza, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Mother of All Contrary Indicators

This has to be it, right?

Selling gold in a supermarket; an expensive commodity, peddled to the least informed and least capitalized segment of the public.

Once that market’s saturated, who’s left?

Going Down Memory Lane

It’s been nearly three years since this post.

From a long-term strategy standpoint, this site has been consistent; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next shoe has yet to drop on how or what’s going to be used to extract (or confiscate) precious metals from the (stacking) proletariat.

With craziness by the day, anything can happen.

Gold: Turning Points & Technical

So far, it’s been three-for-three (here, here and here) identifying recent significant technical conditions and turning points for gold, GLD.

At this juncture, the dollar collapse, and the silver/gold bull launch are just not happening. It’s not there … something else is going on (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re in the middle of a massive sovereign bankruptcy (Time Stamp 7:10) that’s never happened before.

What’s going on behind the scenes is not visible to us.

However, from a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, those (hidden) actions and decisions show up on the chart(s).

Contrary Indicator

Remember Baghdad Bob?

Constantly giving press conferences discussing the strength of the military campaign when the exact opposite was true.

It may be so with gold as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

The local supermarket has decided, after a 22-year long bull market, it’s ‘safe’ for profit.

The hapless public is now standing at the gold kiosk; with face-mask firmly secured, arm bandaged from the latest booster, EV FOB in hand (or pocket), hypnotized into yet another mania.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Sector, Buckles

September 28, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The List, The Speck, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Bad, And More Bad News

It’s been a little nerve-wracking over the past two sessions being short biotech; was it an upward correction, or a full-blown reversal?

No one really knows, until it’s over.

Well, as of today’s new daily low in index SPBIO, it looks like what is now seen as a correction, may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Bad, And More Bad

On the fundamental side, The List keeps building with links like this, this and this.

However, keep in mind, it may be something as simple as rising interest rates that’s ultimately going to collapse biotech and the rest of the markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving on and looking at the chart of SPBIO, there’s a trend confirmation and potential trading channel.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

The left side line is the trend … the right-side line is what’s called the ‘reverse trendline’ and possibly defines the trading channel.

As of this post (12:30 p.m., EST) the SPBIO, is doing all it can to reverse higher, against what may be the over-riding (down) trend.

So far, the daily high of SPBIO 5764.73, remains intact.

Positioning

As a result of today’s new SPBIO low, the stop has been moved on the position in the inverse fund LABD, from LABD 18.22, to LABD 19.18 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘The Economy Is Strong’

September 5, 2023 By in Natural Gas, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, The Speck, UNG

… And Other Lies

It’s been a busy pre-market session; currently, 8:48 a.m., EST.

At yesterday’s evening open of the nat-gas futures (NGV23), it was decided to exit the UNG, position in the Tuesday pre-market, at the earliest possible (not advice, not a recommendation).

That exit was completed @ UNG 6.74

With that done, the focus tuned to the semiconductors.

Early this session (we’re still in the pre-market), the short position was increased via SOXS. Hard Stop remains at SOXS 8.97 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘Strong Economy’ Backdrop

All of this positioning is taking place in the middle of a storm of propaganda.

It’s non-stop; every day, another pile of lies.

For just a hint of truth, check the links here and here.

U.S. food distributor stockpiles are dwindling rapidly (reference links above and more on that channel).

The big corporations are already getting ready for the next ‘We’re all in this together’, planned event as The Speck attempts to make its return.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Back To The ‘Elephant’

July 28, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, Positions, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, The Speck

The ‘AI’ Dog Keeps Biting

Upward price action in the SOXX, held overnight and then some.

A discretionary exit was made in the pre-market session at SOXS 8.42 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Switching gears, we’re leaving the SOXX and AI alone for now.

As mentioned in a prior post, the life insurance sector appears to be correlated with biotech. It’s a fact the life insurance companies are talking a hit from ‘excess’ payouts.

We all know or should know just what’s causing the ‘excess’, so we’ll leave it there.

That leads to the biotech sector (SPBIO) and what appears to be a downside reversal.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Weekly

When looking at the chart for the past three years, one thing is certain; this is not a bull market.

The blue arrow shows the location of a short position opened (via LABD @ 14.70) in today’s pre-market session (not advice, not a recommendation).

A Hard Stop for the position is LABD 13.31.

Since that’s a fair distance from the entry, a discretionary exit may be made by the trader at any time based on the behavior of price action going forward.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Fibonacci, Force and Biotech

July 12, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Waiting For The ‘Event Horizon’

We’re going to start first, with this link, presenting the on-going fundamentals of the sector.

For those of us literally pulling their hair out, wondering if the dam is ever going to break, we have this link.

‘We’ve just poisoned 5-Billion people …’

Note: The dam break is the ‘event horizon’ where everyone collectively wakes-up. Once that happens, the ‘conspiracy’ has been proven as undeniable fact.

Biotech SPBIO, may or may not have an absolute direct connection with the aforementioned links but it’s the ‘baby with the bathwater’ response that’s expected.

Adding to that, big players in this sector have no P/E

The top-ten weightings keep changing, but the last time it was checked, none in the top-ten, had a P/E.

Since we’re working the short side, it’s the leveraged inverse fund LABD that’s of interest.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

Note the near perfect Fibonacci time correlation.

As of today’s close, price action on the LABD has got itself into a Wyckoff ‘spring position’ having decisively penetrated support (blue line), shown below.

That spring set-up has been accomplished on weak down-thrust when compared to the prior move lower.

We have a high probability of upside reversal, down for SPBIO (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Stated in the prior update, we’re short this sector (long LABD) and now have Hard Stop @ LABD 13.27 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Update: 7/13/23, 2:51 p.m. EST

LABD price action pushed to 13.26, just 0.01, below the above listed stop and is now moving higher.

Trade has been maintained (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Is Biotech (Short) Back?

July 10, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

First, The SOXX Housekeeping

Biotech Sector SPBIO ($SPSIBI) has got itself into a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal) condition but first, we’ll update the SOXS trade.

A discretionary exit was made during this session at SOXS 10.10, for just over 1% profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

The trade was in the green and not going to be allowed to go red … a simple, but difficult to execute, trading rule.

We’re still in a bubble. That has not changed. So, it’s being watched closely.

Meanwhile, biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI) reversed on June 14th and has been edging lower ever since. Today, we have what looks to be an up-thrust condition.

Price action has penetrated previous resistance and stalled (thus far).

Since our interest is to short the sector, we’ll go straight to the leveraged inverse fund LABD.

Biotech SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD, Hourly

With about an hour before the close, price action’s penetrated support and has slowed significantly.

Positioning:

LABD entry @ 13.8766; Soft-Stop and Hard-Stop might be at the lows for the day (not advice, not a recommendation). More on that, later.

Fundamentals

The drivers for potential downside continue to grow.

Scenes like this have now entrenched themselves into the public arena.

As stated, many times (in the opinion of this author), these events are the primary driving force for all market activity on a go forward basis.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Supply & Demand … Junior Miners

June 29, 2023 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Positions, serpentza, The List, The Speck 1 Comment

Testing The Right-Side

It’s a good thing we’re not listening to the ‘inflation’ narrative, just like we didn’t listen to ‘The Speck’ narrative of the past few years.

Turns out, ‘The Speck‘ was just the re-branded, common flu.

Inflation or Deflation

One has to wonder if the mainstream will ever acknowledge we’re in a deflation impulse.

The ‘inflation’ we’re seeing is (potentially) more associated with supply, product, and population destruction than any ‘money printing’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

As ‘Winston’ says at this link (time stamp (1:21:48),

‘People are allergic to the truth.’

The truth for the day, concerning the Junior Mining Index GDXJ, is that we’re testing the right-side trend line, the supply side.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Candle

Today’s price action is technically a ‘Key reversal’.

As such, the typical response is continuation to the upside during the coming days and or weeks.

Key reversals are not perfect and at times, will fail.

The important session for GDXJ, is tomorrow, Friday.

Continued upside most likely results in exit of short positions (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Key Reversal … Yet Again

June 13, 2023 By in 1987, DUST, Federal Reserve, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, JDST, Real Estate, The List, The Maverick of Wall Street, The Speck 2 Comments

Junior Miners Take Another Hit

With today’s outside-down (as of 2:43 p.m., EST), that makes it two key reversals for GDXJ, in the past five trading days.

While it looks like the whole herd is focused on the new mania, Artificial Intelligence, back at the ranch, the miners are painting an ominous picture.

Rendezvous With Destiny

The first two-minutes and ten seconds, at this link, are all that’s needed to get the idea of what’s likely to come.

The market recovered (fairly quickly) from 1987 … this time, may indeed be different.

The Elephant Sleeps

Ah, yes. The elephant no one talks about … or more accurately, are afraid to talk about.

Three links here, here and here, show us the elephant may be about to awake.

Even Fox News admits, it was all a lie.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Trend & Channel

From the bottom, May 25th to now, is a Fibonacci 13-Days.

Is that important?

Here’s a prior analysis on Real Estate IYR, that shows how Fibonacci can identify the pivot point, trend and/or trading channel.

Now, back to the Juniors.

The mining sector appears to be under pressure. Each attempt to rally is being thwarted.

Compressed view of the channel, below.

The Fed announcement at 2:00 p.m., EST tomorrow, may or may not have any material effect. The sector may just continue lower …. slowly, without much fanfare (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279