Category Archives: UNG

The Best Market(s) To Trade

December 26, 2025 By in BOIL, BOIL-25-01, Larry Williams, Natural Gas, UNG

Which One?

In this brief interview clip, trading legend Larry Williams cuts through the fog on trading the markets.

In a deceptively simple statement, he says:

‘The best market to trade, is the one that’s set-up right now, today!‘

There’s no ‘macro’ no ‘interest rates’, no ‘earnings forecast’, no ‘pencil sharpening’ (think, FactSet), … nothing.

The best market’s the one that’s moving right now.

With that said, long position on Nat-gas (BOIL-25-01), was increased early this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Ready to Rally

December 25, 2025 By in BOIL, BOIL-25-01, Natural Gas, UNG 1 Comment

Slam & Test

Like all markets, Nat-Gas (UNG) has its own characteristics.

One of them, is the potential for wild and volatile action during an EIA release.

Taken from comments on October 22nd.

“However, tomorrow is the next release of EIA and potential test. Sometimes it’s brutal, other times it’s not there.“

Moving on a month or so, we can see that type of ‘brutal’ decline; -32.5%, (top to bottom) before price recovered.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily

Nat-Gas (UNG) has penetrated support, rebounded, and now (Wednesday), was testing that action.

It’s important to note, the previous spring set-up (here) resulted in a rally, lasting about six weeks.

Also note:

That rally was somewhat choppy and overlapping which would suggest if we do get another sustained rally, price action may alternate from the last rally’s form (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Crash, then, Bounce

December 17, 2025 By in Natural Gas, UNG, UNG-25-02, Wyckoff

Penetrates Support, Spring Condition

Nat-Gas UNG dropped nearly -30% from the December 5th, 17.00 high, to yesterday’s low of 11.92.

Today was a bounce and by the close, UNG was up +4.46%

Note that yesterday’s low was a Fibonacci eight-days from the December 5th, high.

It was also below support, putting it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Natural Gas UNG, Daily

After the up-thrust high, UNG essentially went straight down without even a hint of any upside test.

It’s not often UNG, posts an eight-day decline of -30% or more. The last such streak was back in November of 2022; from 11/22, to 12/5, of that year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Post-Mortem

October 12, 2025 By in China, David Weis, Natural Gas, Positions, UNG, UNG-25-01, Up-Thrust

What Do You See?

We’re heading straight into winter.

Who knows what type of ‘weather’ we’ll have this time.

So, nat-gas can’t go any lower than where it is now, right?

Wrong

That type of thinking’s called a ‘Mind Trap’, link here.

David Weis would typically start mentoring sessions with a question (after presenting a chart):

“What do you see?”

Forgetting all the factors that ‘should’ drive the price of nat-gas higher, we have the chart.

Natural Gas ETF, UNG: Daily

The upper blue line is resistance which price action ‘up-thrusted’ (reversed).

The green line is a minor support area.

This is where a long position was initiated (UNG-25-01). The expectation for the next day (last Friday), was for an immediate increase it price.

That didn’t happen. The long position, the only ‘long’ for this year, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

The orange line is another support area but the lower blue line, if UNG gets there, is the ‘spring’ set-up target.

U.S & China Nat-Gas

Last Friday’s chaos with China and tariffs, begs the question if Chinese nat-gas shipments would be used as a tit-for-tat pawn; meaning, China halts all purchases.

The short answer is no.

For all of 2025, there’ve been no shipments, link here.

With that said, if nat-gas is going to move lower to the target area shown, then something else would be the driving mechanism.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Markets Blow-Up … A Review

October 11, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Bonds, CDNS, DIA, Dow 30, IBB, Natural Gas, SPBIO, TLT, UNG, WFC, Wyckoff, XBI

In The Aggregate

Whether or not we’re at the ‘anxiety’ point shown on the chart, is yet to be seen.

Markets are open this coming Monday, except for bonds, adding to the weekend angst.

Reviewing The (past) Week

Posts over last week, even the weeks before, showed from a Wyckoff perspective, something was about to happen.

Cadence Design … Reversal Ready, link here.

When The Bonds Spike, link here.

Wells Fargo Top … 86.66, link here.

Biotech (short) Set-Up, link here.

Top of The Dow, link here.

In retrospect and in aggregate, it’s now obvious something was amiss.

The ‘Art’ of Wyckoff

Wyckoff technique is more art than science, more intuitive than calculated, more ephemeral than certain.

We’ll get into what happens when logic overrides that art, in the next update; Nat-Gas UNG.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas Upside Pressure

October 5, 2025 By in Corn, Natural Gas, Positions, UNG, UNG-25-01, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Rally Into Winter?

The technical position of Nat-Gas (UNG) suggests conditions are in place for upside demand into the winter months (not advice, not a recommendation).

Some type of (seasonal) nat-gas rally is typical but not guaranteed.

Adding to that, the anomaly in June of 2023, since prices had come down so much, naturally, they just had to go higher.

Speculators positioned accordingly, creating a massive imbalance, link here.

Obviously, the increase in price never happened.

Natural Gas ETF, UNG, Weekly Close

Now, over two-years later, there may be a bullish set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

This set-up looks very similar to CORN.

The latest CORN update included the potential for a retrace into a Wyckoff spring; last report, linked here.

Depending on price action, we’ll discuss that, this week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Car Questions Answered, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, SLV, UNG, WMT, WMT-25-03

Bonds & The Economy

Not getting much attention in the media yet, is what looks like a slow (nascent), upside reversal, of long-bonds.

Here’s an excellent description of what’s going on with the yield curve, link here.

However, there’s one potential error (depending on data used), in the link above, the job market.

Real unemployment numbers can be found here.

It says, we’re already at ‘depression era’ levels of 25% unemployment.

If anyone’s skeptical of alternate numbers, the official numbers have already been proven to be ‘in-question’.

One of the best examples of ‘official’ data, or lack thereof, is this report.

What’s a million jobs or so, between friends. 🙂

With mass layoffs starting, also, here and here, that 25% number above, is likely to increase significantly.

We can even add some anecdotal evidence, link here.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

The price action of the market itself, is telling us where to go for opportunity.

Upside may still be there, if one wants to position in the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, for over eighteen months, this site’s been profitable only positioning to the short-side (UNG, the exception) and sees no reason to join the crowd buying into the A.I. mania (not advice not a recommendation).

The current focus is on WMT, a sleeper, not-doing-much, for years, that may be about to get interesting.

Currently short as WMT-25-03, with stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Trend & Channel

September 16, 2024 By in Natural Gas, Oil, Oil & Gas, UNG, USO

Bottom Pattern, ‘W’

Nat-Gas is in a trend and potential channel.

Going back to this post, one reason given for continued lower prices in Nat-Gas, was the high price of oil: with Nat-Gas being a by-product of oil production.

Since that post, oil prices (USO) have dropped, and Nat-gas prices are on the rise.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily

The two dashed black lines are trend and channel.

There’s also a ‘W’ bottom formed; if broken to the upside, targets the ‘Measured Move’ as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Metals … ‘Whacked!’

July 25, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-24-05, SLV, UNG, UNG-24-11

Just Shocking

Especially shocking after having been subjected to non-stop delusion (now going on four months), and being ‘certain’ precious metals were headed higher.

Enough already.

Silver (SLV) is currently trading down a whopping -4.7%, in the pre-market session. Gold (GLD) is lower by about -1.2%.

Silver analysis has been consistent; SLV, price action itself, indicates a top and reversal or at best, sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation)

If one wants to review, starting back in April, we have:

Silver Top, Top Part II, Top Part III, Top Part IV, Top Part V, Top Part VI, Top Part VII, Top Part VII+, Stalls-Out

Now, this update essentially completes the process.

Silver, SLV, is about to open well below resistance as shown in the ‘Stalls-Out, update.

The Battle Against ‘Tik-Tok’ Brain

Fewer and fewer have a brain … like this (warning, profanity).

This guy sounds very much like the one in the ‘About‘ section. 🙂

Housekeeping: UNG, JDST

As can be inferred, a short trade via JDST, has already been opened: JDST-24-05.

Depending on today’s action, the stop listed is likely to be moved higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nat-Gas (UNG), on the other hand, is not behaving as expected.

The initial position UNG-24-11, was reduced by 80%, as a result of yesterday’s action. It’s likely that position will be closed out completely during this session (if not already).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas is Back

July 22, 2024 By in Natural Gas, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-12, SOXX, UNG, UNG-24-11

Reversal Action

Price action detailed below, shows upside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s been a while since the last update on Nat-Gas, UNG.

Since then, price action sliced through support (shown in the update), posting new lows.

However, over the past week, the character has changed.

Natural Gas, UNG, 3-Day

Today is ‘Day 3’, for the chart’s price bar; tomorrow’s action begins a new ‘3-Day’ bar.

At this juncture, the prior three-day move to new (daily) lows has been negated with today’s action.

If positioning long, the obvious stop level would be the low of the current three day bar at UNG 13.89 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything Can Happen

The past two weeks has shown us, in no uncertain terms, that anything can happen.

So, it is with the markets.

Nat-Gas has been bouncing around historical lows for some time; plenty of time to wear out any (remaining) bulls.

SOXX Housekeeping

While under no obligation to discuss open (or closed) trades, as a courtesy, today’s price action forced closure of SOXX short trade; SOXS-24-12

Total profit on the trade, having twelve separate entries and one exit (today) was just over 19%.

We’re potentially at the top of the largest mania in history save the South Sea, expecting things to go in a straight line is (apparently) not realistic. 🙂

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279