Tag Archives: news

Carvana … New, All-Time-Highs ?

January 30, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg Tags: , , , ,

The ‘Measured Move’

According to this link, the wheels have already come off.

However, as we’ve seen time and again, ‘financials’ have nothing to do with prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s all about manipulation and what the manipulators are trying to achieve.

At this point, Carvana refuses to go lower. That’s a fact.

So, if it’s not going lower, just what is happening?

A better way to ask the question:

‘What’s it going to take to trap unsuspecting ‘investors’ and extract the largest amount of funds from them in the shortest possible time?

How about new all-time highs on an earnings release (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

The all-time-high for Carvana, is 376.83, posted during the week of August 13, 2021 (source TC2000).

Next earnings is on February 19, link here.

Let’s see what happens next

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UAL & Secret ‘Plans’

January 23, 2025 By in AAL, Airlines, DAL, Daniela Cambone, Ed Dowd, LUV, Positions, UAL, UAL-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Was It ‘Manipulation?’

Looking at United Airlines (UAL), with the precise set-up, four-year wedge, measured move, the top, timed exactly at an earnings release, you have to ask yourself …

Was it all part of a (secret) plan?

Wyckoff Writes on Manipulation

Way back in 1910, Wyckoff wrote the following concerning manipulation (emphasis added, quote used with permission).

“Manipulators are giant traders, wearing seven-leagued boots. The trained ear can detect the steady ‘clump clump’ as they progress, and the footprints are recognized in the fluctuations and quantities of stock appearing on the tape.”

United Airlines UAL, Weekly

When looking at the chart, it all makes sense … it just took over four years to play out.

As the last update said, ‘what now?’

All three major (largest cap) airlines are currently (flat to) lower; DAL, UAL, LUV (11:02 a.m., EST).

American Airlines (AAL), lower as well; it’s down a whopping -10%, just today

What does that mean?

Here’s an interview with Ed Dowd, just posted.

All of the damage inflicted over the years, is not going to be wiped-out with the stroke of a pen (to borrow a comment).

With that, one of the hardest industries to make a profit even in good times, are the airlines. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s ‘Break’ Test Dummy

January 16, 2025 By in CVNA, Great Depression 2.0 Tags: , , , ,

Time & Targets

Will it be like the old Ted Nugent song?

‘Kamikaze from the hundredth floor. Swan dive to the street.’

The last update wasn’t quite sure if we’d finished testing the trend break.

Now, with this morning’s session, there are more clues we may be getting closer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking back, this update had target(s) where price action could post before continuing the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

It was thought we’d get a rebound off the trendline. Instead, it looks like a test of the break.

No matter ‘how’ price action got to the target(s), it’s at the target. 🙂

Carvana CVNA, Daily

As of this post (11:26 a.m., EST), CVNA high for the day is 232.80, in the prior target range of ‘227 – 233’.

Today, is Fibonacci Day 34 (+1) from the all-time high posted on November 25th, last year.

If there’s going to be a reversal, price and ‘time’ requirements have been met (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adding to that, this update with Carvana (Hindenburg) ‘fundamentals’ in place.

Along with yesterday’s update, rate of economic decline increasing, it’s probable we’re nearing some type of inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Leader … Biotech

January 14, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, IWM, LABD-25-01, Russell 2000, SPBIO, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Confirming, Right-Side Channel

It’s a recurring theme with biotech.

Over and again, this sector (IBB, XBI) is not participating in tandem with the other major indices.

Today’s pre-market mayhem higher over supposed slower outlays of possible trade tariffs to happen some-time, some-day, caused the major indices to launch upward. 🙂

Well, everybody seemed to be blasting higher except one sector, biotech.

Wyckoff Directed Action

No matter what the ‘narrative’ may be, Wyckoff analysis directs us to look at what the market is actually doing, then interpret the action.

Early after the open, trade TZA-25-01, was exited, +8.9% gain, short position opened in biotech via LABD, Trade: LABD-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today posted outside down, taking out both the high and low of the prior session.

Note the trading channel and width, Fibonacci 13-Days.

Also note the two ‘breakaway gaps’. The second one on January 10th, much wider than November 12th, last year.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Cracks

December 22, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX, The Epoch Times, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Same As It Ever Was?

It’s a market smorgasbord of opportunities but for this site, it’s not to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s get started with this:

‘The economy’s doing great, same as it ever was’

Just to remind us how great it is, is this, link here.

Moving on to the poster child of the day, Carvana.

As expected, the CarMax (KMX) earnings release, affected not only CarMax, but Carvana’s price action as well.

The last update on Carvana said to be on the lookout for a reversal based on the lack of volatility alone.

Well, that’s what happened, and volatility has increased.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The question now: CVNA price action has declined and penetrated established support, putting it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Will there be one (potential) last ‘blip’ higher?

Of course, CVNA could head down from here.

Price action over the next few days, will let us know the most likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A Tale of Two Markets

December 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , , , ,

SOXX Powering Higher, XBI Pivoting Lower

To borrow from the Dickens classic:

It was the bullish of times, it was the bearish of times.

Bulls have regained control of the semiconductors (SOXX) for now and negated the ‘false breakout’ analysis link here.

Meanwhile, bears have moved into biotech XBI; currently testing underside resistance and axis line.

Since the active trade (LABD-24-21) is in biotech, we’ll review that market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The weekly shows us the ‘Axis Line’ has been part of XBI price action for at least three years.

Moving on to the daily, more detail.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There was (decisive) downside penetration, November 15th. Then, an attempted recovery that so far, has failed.

The notation ‘Short?’, was the date of this post.

As the semiconductors battle over who’s in control, for biotech, the bears seem to have established a foothold (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Seven-Year ‘Wedge’

December 15, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, Bonds, DHI, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-16, SPBIO, TLT, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Massive Top Formation

D.R. Horton, (DHI) is the largest cap in the Residential Construction Sector (www.tc2000.com).

During the last blow-up (2005 – 2008), DHI, declined top-to-bottom over -91%.

Will it be different this time?

One thing that’s likely, the next implosion could be hit with widespread market and broker outages (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last (notable) time was here.

As far as known, feel free to comment to the contrary, this site’s the only one that incorporates outage potential (and reality) into its trading plan.

Case in point is this link.

The firm’s trade records show, on that Monday, the account was short: LABD-24-16.

The broker outage and panic helped the position. The trade was closed on August 8th, with a profit of 11.15%.

Enough said, let’s move on.

D.R. Horton DHI, Monthly

There it is, seven-years in the making.

We’re at the lower wedge boundary now.

Recently, bonds (TLT) had a minor move higher (rates lower), lasting two-weeks.

However, last week, TLT reversed down and eclipsed the previous two-weeks of gains.

Rates are now moving higher … again.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … To ‘Blip’ and Back

December 14, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Silver Collapse, SLV, Solar Power Tags: , , , ,

A ‘Basic Material’

A ‘blip’ is all there was.

The last update on silver SLV (link here), had this to say:

“The 50% retrace area is shown. It will be interesting to see if SLV, gets that far.”

Well, SLV got that far, just barely, held for three days and then reversed, ending the week down.

While the hyperinflation mania rages on, click-bait by click-bait, the market itself tells us the truth … or the more probable truth.

That truth (below), silver (SLV), is poised for a series of downside reversals (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Monthly

One ‘terminating wedge’ within another; upside Force (pressure) is declining and bearish divergent (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver may be considered a basic material like copper (also in decline) with over half of production used for industrial applications.

The COP-OUT

There’s dissent in the ranks.

As economies are stressed or fracture world-wide, the amount of free money available for ‘games’ essentially evaporates.

Case in point is here.

Already shown, the effects of economic decline (silver demand) with solar company bankruptcies, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

This Time … It’s Biotech

November 12, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, MRNA, PFE, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: ,

Another Reversal

One by one, each sector appears to be topping or reversing.

This time, it’s biotech.

Analysis (and action) over the past year has been on again, off again and now, appears to be back on again.

However, this time we have (as we’ll see below) a near perfect Fibonacci correlation.

Biotech Sector Index SPBIO, Daily

First, the big picture.

The corrective retrace that started way back in late October, of last year.

Next, we’ll get in closer to show the exactness of the Fibonacci levels.

It hardly ever works out this perfectly, but there it is.

Change Horses?

It’s no secret, the focus of trading action on this site since mid-October, has been to short semiconductors, potentially the largest bubble (A.I.) in world history (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, biotech may get its comeuppance as well with information like this, this and this hitting the mainstream.

The decision to take action or not, remains open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds … The October Surprise

October 6, 2024 By in Bonds, Dollar, DRV, DRV-24-05, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Prechter, Real Estate, TLT, Usual Suspects, UUP, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , ,

Will The ‘Wedge’, Close The ‘Spead’

Bonds traded down hard last Friday.

With the reversal now obvious (since the Fed announcement, September 18th), we have the usual suspects putting out ‘content’ (here and here) letting you know what’s already happened.

In Prechter’s book, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, he states, being part of the herd, is hard-wired into the brain.

Therefore, it takes diligent, consistent effort, to go against the mindless (limbic brain) herd if you’re going to make an objective observation.

So, let’s do just that, taking an objective look at the potential effects of the bond reversal.

Bonds (TLT proxy) began its reversal, rates higher, the day before the last Fed announcement.

The IYR, reached its high that Wednesday, 9/18/24.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

It’s been nearly three years since the all-time high in December, of 2021. The wedge shown below has been just over a year in the making.

The reversal action of the past few weeks can be seen in the ‘Throw-Over’ area of the chart.

If the wedge has been identified correctly, price action has now entered back into that formation.

Positioning

This post highlighted a short position was on the horizon.

This post confirmed.

This post connected the dots with the bond market.

That same post presented a tentative stop above break even on DRV-24-05 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trend or Not

We may know as early as tomorrow’s session (Monday), if IYR has established and confirmed a downtrend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279