Our ‘parabolic’ report on MRNA, was posted before the open, August 10th.
That post included the following summary:
‘This is the type of parabolic rise (and blow-off top) typically seen in commodities.’
Then, about seven minutes after the open, MRNA peaked and reversed into a two-day collapse over -25%.
Down-thrust energy, the amount of downward force in price action, was literally off the chart; the strongest ever recorded since MRNA, started trading in December of 2018.
Price action leads the news. This case was no exception.
This report, just out on ZeroHedge shows there’s a half-hearted attempt to draw attention to a so-called ‘rare’ side effect.
Even so, the insiders probably figure the jig is up and they’re bailing out.
The biotech sector (SPBIO) continues its bear market decline. Yesterday, it closed down over -32%, from its February 2021, highs.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Years ago, while reading one of David Weis’ daily updates, he made a comment to the effect:
‘I can’t count how many times I’ve seen a spring, go straight into an up-thrust’.
His observation stuck with me through the years. Being the engineering type, I naturally wanted to know why.
Why does that market observed phenomenon occur?
Pursuing the question from a data perspective, it became clear that finding an answer, would be a never-ending quest.
I abandoned the ‘data’ idea; but the question lingered.
During that time, observation of the markets proved Weis’ point. Some markets tend to go straight from ‘spring to up-thrust.’
One example that’s taking place now, is CAT:
Another example in the potential set-up phase is LOW:
The reason for the phenomenon remains open. Obviously, the market’s going to go where there are orders.
It’s likely, under the right price action and psychological conditions, when support is penetrated enough (amateur) participants sell and then sell short.
Those undisciplined traders continue to move their stops higher (against their trade) as the the market moves higher; ultimately taking them out at the up-thrust top.
How do I know this? Because that’s exactly what I used to do.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
For months, the biotech SPBIO and its leveraged inverse fund LABD have shown a repeating trendline characteristic.
This time around, the two right-side trend contact points (shown above) are LABD’s (Day 34) outside up reversal and today’s Fed minutes release, reversal.
The chart below is a compressed version of LABD. It gives a better perspective on the gain potential.
Looking at the chart it’s clear why so much focus has been placed on strategically shorting biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).
If there’s a decisive SPBIO break lower, the gain potential for inverse LABD is significant.
Time frame for exit (not advice, not a recommendation) unless price action dictates otherwise, is still planned for mid-October.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If the mainstream media is good for anything, it’s the ability to keep the herd, the retail, (Robinhood kids, et al.) fully distracted until it’s absolutely too late for action.
Even though this report from ZeroHedge gives all kinds of ‘signals’ saying we’re not there yet; It even goes as far as showing there’s no yield curve inversion. Of course that means ‘no risk’ of bear market.
Then going on to say, ‘None of these measures indicate a bear market is near’. I mean, you can’t make this stuff up.
What’s the table above (yesterday’s close) say about what’s really going on?
At this point it’s obvious the media are not going to discuss the on-going bear market in biotech, SPBIO.
Doing so, would require some kind of investigation as to why? That would open Pandora’s box and have everyone digging for truth … something to be avoided (censured) at all costs.
Amateurs always want (need) to know why.
Livermore was never concerned with the why. He looked for ‘what’. What is the price action doing now or what is it likely to do.
As Wyckoff said, ‘the why always comes out later … after the fact’
‘Why’ is a useless trading strategy.
However, in the case of biotech, we can take a good guess what the ‘why’ is all about.
Fall and Winter are very close now. As this interview with Stew Peters reveals, Fall and Winter are when we get the real picture of ‘side effects’.
Biotech is ahead of the pack on the downside and for good reason.
Positioning:
Positions have not changed except for additions of LABD as SPBIO declines and LABD heads higher (not advice, not a recommendation).
As a reminder, this site’s not interested in day trading or even swing trading unless that’s all the market offers.
No, we’re interested in positioning strategically.
This type of trading is modeled after the host’s twenty-four years of experience with aircraft flight test and certification.
A typical project would take five to seven years to complete; have a near infinite number of complex stages along the way with each one a profession unto itself.
At this juncture, biotech may be poised for the largest implosion ever seen in market history.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
I’ve never seen such an on-going event result in so many people using Biblical standards to ether describe the battle, or to say this could be it. We need to keep our lampstands ready.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Now I tell them, even though some of them have families of their own:
‘Never touch, sit, or ride in a Tesla’
Those too lazy or stupid to come up with a corporate name of their own, steal one from a veritable genius and trash-it.
Tesla: Unsafe and un-green at all times.
No. 3
Speck Protected ‘Party’
From this video, it looks like there’s still plenty of room for the brain dead herd followers.
It must be a sinking feeling (for some) to look around during the party and say to oneself:
‘I’ve been a coward all my life … thought I would get away with it too. I spread gossip about colleagues at work so I could get the job they deserved. I knew they were more qualified.
I’m the one who called the police on someone not wearing a mask in my neighborhood.
I’m following the ‘guidelines’. That’s when I got my big chance.
I pridefully showed everyone who’s the most virtuous.
I was obedient and got injected. I forced my kids too. I told them to ‘stay safe’.
Therefore, I really must be brave after all.
Suffering through all the nonsense like that above; the ‘heroes’ working at hospitals, taking care of those ill from the speck, let’s remind ourselves by taking a look at real bravery, shall we?
No. 4
Set Sail for ‘Safety’
Cruise ship full of jabbed idiots (what an overused term … is there a better one?) has ‘breakthrough’ cases and are now isolated.
One has to strain not to side with the oligarchs.
A ship full of ‘useless eaters’ that just what to get back to a normal life of partying.
If the alternate (and probably accurate) data is even half-true, those on this cruise won’t be back next year.
In fact, there’re never coming back.
As said before, it’s a warped business model to kill-off your own clientele.
No. 5
School Teacher Shortage … all part of the plan
So, what’s going to happen if there are not enough teachers to teach (indoctrinate) the kids?
Maybe all those kids need to be rounded up and moved off to centralized camps.
When in history has that happened before?
No. 6
Taboo … Scaboo
Scaboo is the name of the Rooster seen in this video.
Just today, he managed to tear off his ‘no crow’ collar; then started belting it out in the back yard right at mid-day.
It’s a long story, but he got his name from a late-night crime show (FBI Files) about a drug dealer, turned informant, that helped bring down a corrupt police force in New Orleans.
At time stamp 0:45 at this link you can hear his name.
Anyway … there’s more going on here than just trying to sneak a rooster past the neighborhood busy bodies … of which there are plenty.
It’s possible, this an exercise in executing all options.
Maybe someone reading this needs to see that breaking the ‘rules’ is not only necessary, it may be critical to future survival.
This site, in a very small way, is doing its part and showing how it’s done … at least in the case of a contraband rooster.
Does this all sound hyperbolic? Well, let’s come back in a few weeks or months and see.
I have personally told close relatives, the nearest model to what’s really going on, is 1930s Germany.
They respond by figuratively patting me on the head and saying ‘There, there … let’s not get all worked up’.
No. 7
Exercise Disobedience
Bravery is a muscle that requires regular exercise. If this muscle is not exercised, the result is cowardice.
Since a majority hate to discipline and exercise themselves either mentally or physically, the logical conclusion is that cowardice (and compliance) must be wide-spread.
But I keep under my body and bring it into subjection …
Taboo Scaboo, is in essence, an exercise in disobedience. For some unknown reason (at this point), it’s important to keep him.
Will the supply of available chicks be cut off from the local Tractor Supply?
If not, will the demand for egg laying hens (Leghorns highly productive) outstrip what conventional supply chains can provide?
It’s all unknown.
The number of iterations that have taken place to finally get him to my personal office where he can crow without notice from the neighbors, was somewhere around seven:
No crow collar.
Get out to the coop before daybreak to dissuade him from crowing.
If he started crowing, hold him (in the middle of the back yard at dawn) to somehow ‘reset’ his internal clock.
That’s not working. Bring him in and set up a dog kennel in the kitchen just inside the back door (the cats found him quickly).
Soundproof the garage with insulation (on garage door) and set up the kennel. Discover it’s too hot for summer time in Texas.
Move the whole caboodle to my office (that has doors) so that he can crow at will.
Bring him in each night to set up for the morning.
After he’s done in the morning, cinch him up (with the collar); put him outside with the hens; start the process all over again.
No. 8
Who’s Running The Show?
The testimony at this link shows us exactly who’s in charge … and has been (allowed to be) in charge for hundreds if not thousands of years.
If you’re still going to a church building on Sunday. Go ahead and take a look at the cars in the parking lot.
How many ‘symbols’ of the organization in the link above will you find on the back bumpers?
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Russell 2000 (IWM as proxy) has been congesting sideways for about five months.
While the overall markets, S&P, Dow, SOXX, IYR and the QQQs, have been moving on to new highs … the Russell has stagnated.
Taking a cue from Steven Van Metre’s reports on ‘who goes first’ in a downturn, it’s the small caps.
At this juncture, it looks like the Russell’s ready.
The six month daily chart of IWM below, shows choppy action.
Pulling back somewhat and labeling the bearish wedge, puts it into perspective (second chart):
Pulling out and labeling the wedge:
One item of note (not shown) at the top of the wedge, where price action pivoted lower (August 6th), is a Fibonacci 62%, retrace level.
So, we have a bearish wedge retracing 62% … along with non-confirmation of the overall highs; S&P, Dow, SOXX, etc.
Major reversals take a long time to form. However, once they get underway, it’s like a juggernaut to the bottom.
Harkening back to the oil (USO) bear market of 2014, nearly all (if not all) the YouTuber’s at the time, completely missed the bearish set-up.
What they did instead, once the downdraft started, was pump out update after update about ‘catching the bottom and setting up for the new bull market in oil’.
It never happened.
Oil continued lower for a year and a half before getting into a sideways range.
The big money’s in the big move. Monitoring the Russell provides confirmation a significant reversal’s in the works (not advice, not a recommendation).
As with biotech (SPBIO), already in a bear market, the IWM could break lower while the overall markets continue to thin-out and even make new highs.
Recall, we’re getting close to an up-coming holiday: Labor Day
The 1929, high was on the Tuesday just after Labor Day weekend.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Biotech SPBIO and Inverse LABD In Fibonacci Sequence
Today is Fibonacci Day, 34
Like a metronome ticking away, keeping time, so too has the SPBIO index and inverse fund LABD.
From a personal anecdote situation, I’ve never seen an index hit every Fibonacci Day with an inflection point … all the way up to today: 34 Days.
To get to the analysis, we’ll start first with an unmarked daily chart of inverse fund LABD, below:
Pivots from the June 28th, low are in Fibonacci sequence:
If today is a reversal or subsequent pivot … verified by next week’s price action, LABD’s exhibiting an incredible adherence to Fibonacci time.
This can only happen if nobody’s watching.
As soon as traders/speculators catch on that something’s afoot, the sequence diffuses into chaos; that may or may not come back to order at a later date.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
First, let’s start with the July 29th analysis of GDX. That update showed price action about to ‘Up-Thrust’ into a reversal.
The update even gave a possible high for the top of the developing set-up.
That high was in the area of GDX 35.65, near the 38% retrace level.
GDX topped-out at 35.82; then reversed.
The set-up chart is shown below and followed with the price action result:
And the result …
Pulling out to look at the weekly time frame, it’s clear, GDX is in a down-channel.
The magenta arrows show channel contact points:
Summary:
Gold and the miners are not showing hyperinflation at this juncture. It’s just not there.
Something else is going on.
As with the real estate index (IYR) not reversing as expected from collapsing retail purchasing (within established malls and elsewhere), gold and the miners are not moving decisively higher.
With real estate, It came out months later (after abandoning shorts on IYR) that Black Rock and others had been buying up whole sub-divisions … specifically from D.R. Horton.
With gold, it may be something else.
As proposed several times, the ‘controllers’ may make it irrelevant.
If you can’t get to the bullion dealer to either buy or sell, does it really matter if the metal’s in your possession?
This is a long-term game and this site’s in it for the long haul.
Each side making its chess moves. With that, it’s probably a good idea to review the standard plan of those on the other side.
Anecdote:
From a personal standpoint, as this post is being generated, there’s a Leghorn Rooster in a dog kennel cage (in my office) that’s been crowing for about two hours.
The same one (only much larger now) seen in this brief video.
Roosters are absolutely verboten in this neighborhood.
He started to crow decisively (collar or not) about a week ago; starting around 6:30 a.m.
He was not part of the plan. The five chicks were all presumed to be hens and his appearance was sort of an accident.
Several iterations later, which included sound-proofing the garage, he’s got his own set-up in my office.
It’s been about two and a half hours now and it looks like he’s done crowing. Soon, he’ll be off to check out the hens and be on with his day.
As a result of his arrival, we’ve changed our thinking: It may not be long before sentiment (to the food supply) changes instantly. It’s possible everyone at that time will be clamoring for their own livestock … crowing or not.
They’re no guarantees we’ll be able to keep him a secret (but God willing).
However, if he can be kept on the down low and then food supplies are cut off or severly curtailed, we’ll be more than happy to offer “Stud” services … for ‘small’ fee 🙂
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Looking over the updates of the past few weeks, you can see how the LABD channel (above) was formed.
The trend has repeated with successive moves higher and the right side channel line moved as a result of price action.
At this point, we may be there.
If LABD closes the day at its current location or higher, it’s a good sign of channel confirmation.
In addition, we have Moderna (MRNA) in the process of penetrating the trendline shown in yesterday’s update. If price action continues lower (as it’s doing in the early session), it could be on track to post a weekly reversal.
Separately, the IBB (ETF) index is already posting a weekly reversal. From a momentum standpoint, the new weekly high of IBB, has put that index in a potential bearish (MACD) divergence provided it closes lower from here for the week.
Positioning:
The bearish case has been building even back to David Stockman’s assessment of ‘2-Trillion Dollars of Bottled Air’, during the summer of 2015.
However, Stockman does not trade. So, to figure out if ‘this is it’, is not in his repertoire.
With current events as they are, one can intuitively conclude the fundamentals have not improved for the sector.
The backdrop is there for significant downside.
With that in mind my firm remains positioned max short (not advice, not a recommendation).
Any selling in LABD that’s occurred over the past month or so, was to adjust account(s) for maintenance (margin) requirements.
Once the index was finished with its adverse (SPBIO, higher, LABD lower) moves, we’re right back to establishing a full position.
This type of action has been going on for months.
It’s tedious and not exciting; exactly the opposite of what a typical YouTube viewer is looking for.
As a corollary, there’s no artificial (and profit limiting) requirement to show ‘Monthly’, Quarterly’ or whatever gains, to retail customers.
The financial press takes care of the retail side.
Some (very few) actually escape; finding themselves on sites like Van Metre’s, Weis’, and this one.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 