Category Archives: LABD

The Market Set-Up … This Week

October 16, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Basic Materials, Bonds, David Weis, DJUSBM, Gold & Silver, IYM, IYR, J.P. Morgan, LABD, LABD-22-08, Michael Cowan, Positions, SLV, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Survival Lilly, TLT, TMF, TSLA, Van Metre, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

What To Watch

First off, it’s nice to know, traders at J.P. Morgan, don’t have clue as what to do.

They say it themselves; Not One Person

On top of that, I’m supposed to pay money reading about how clueless they are. 🙂

No thanks. Let’s see if we can do better than the average ‘investment firm’.

Before we get started, a reminder; as Michael Cowen says:

‘It’s the bear market that reveals those who really understand’, not the bull market ‘geniuses‘.

With that, let’s get into it; first up, is silver.

Silver: Wyckoff Analysis Results

The downside reversal was identified to the day.

Adding to that post, Europeans could not only be freezing or starving this winter, but also subject to radiation poisoning.

Surely, they’re all thinking that ‘stack’ of silver is going to save them.

Silver (along with gold) remain trending lower.

Silver (SLV) is currently at support levels; therefore, some upward action (staying below SLV: 18.5) is normal behavior.

Bonds: Are They Ready?

Hold your nose … bonds could be setting up for a rally.

As Steven Van Metre reports here, the Fed ‘shenanigan’ meter is pegged.

Bonds, TLT Weekly

Note, the bullish TLT, set-up is not confirmed until MACD ticks higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Also note the repeating pattern of ‘spring to up-thrust‘.

Last up, biotech

Biotech SPBIO, Hourly (Inverted)

We’re going to use the chart from yesterday’s post to set the stage for getting closer-in.

This past Friday’s early morning ‘spike’ is barely visible; the 30-minute (inverted) chart below, has more detail.

SPBIO, 30-minute (Inverted)

Price action rejected the lower levels (higher on SPBIO) and pulled away throughout the session. That ‘pulling away’ continued on, all the way into the close.

That’s a clue there may be follow-through at the next session.

If the early session opens ‘gap-higher’ (SPBIO, lower), into the resistance area (four magenta arrows, hourly chart), it would be the fourth time pressuring at this area; markets rarely hold a fourth attempt.

Summary

Of course, other markets are being watched like real estate (IYR), Tesla (TSLA), and even Basic Materials (DJUSBM), a potential sleeper for significant downside.

Updates are planned if/when low risk shows up.

Positions: Current Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

The following is the positioning of my firm’s main (largest) account.

LABD-22-08:

LABD Entry @ 25.1278, 24.735, 26.025, 22.99, 22.29***, Stop is @ LABD 21.23***

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

October 15, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, Gwen Olsen, LABD, LABD-22-08, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, The Epoch Times, The Speck, Usual Suspects, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Special Biotech Edition

Bogart

An immense flood of data; research reports, lawsuits, expose articles and anecdotal evidence; every day, multiple times a day, something new.

Has the biotech technical (finally) lined up with the fundamental?

Those fundamentals are farther down but first, we’ll discuss the technical.

As a reminder, sometimes charts are inverted during analysis. This ‘trick’ was discovered years ago and is based on techniques used by Dr. Alexander Elder.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close (Inverted)

We’ve taken the weekly closing chart of SPBIO ($SPSIBI, on StockCharts) and inverted it to mimic the action of inverse fund LABD.

The index has no volume; so LABD is used instead.

The magenta arrow shows the pivot point for the index, corresponds will all-time record volume on leveraged inverse LABD.

Next, we’ll get closer-in and look at the ‘pivot’ on the hourly chart (inverted).

SPBIO, Hourly (Inverted).

The magenta arrows show successive positions (Livermore ‘probes’) entered (via LABD) before the main entry @ LABD 22.99, which was 90% of position size up to that point.

The next day (Friday) had a gap-lower open that was quickly reversed. Position size was increased by another 5%, at LABD 22.29 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Effective position equates to LABD 23.17

Price action pulled away steadily from the early morning levels, suggesting a sustainable reversal.

The Fundamentals

Some of this stuff, you just can’t make up.

Listed in somewhat chronological order, here they are (not an exhaustive list).

No. 1

Pfizer hires 600 to help document adverse events. Wasn’t it supposed to be ‘safe and effective’?

No. 2

Pilot Shortage

Fired/quit because they refuse to get ‘protection’.

A possible corollary to what’s happened, via injection, we have this.

No. 3

Pfizer, nobody wants their product … after the rollout.

No. 4

Who could it be?

Previously unknown (or rare) problems and illness now starting to accelerate.

No. 5

We’re here to help.

No. 6

You mean, it was all a lie?

No. 7

The real reason for getting ‘tested’?

No. 8

What did the media know and when did they know it?

No. 9

It’s still a ‘suggestion‘ but the payouts to family members are real.

No. 10

It’s over … and then it’s not.

No. 11

We’ll keep it quiet, so no feelings get hurt.

No. 12

How bad is your batch? Let’s see.

No. 13

You mean, it was never tested? I’m shocked.

No. 14

After all that, maybe we can give it another shot.

No. 15

A potential infinite number of complications … nothing to see here.

No. 16

Getting away with it? Not so fast.

No. 17

Just had a heart attack? We can help.

No. 18

Limited Hangout? You decide.

No. 19

Lastly, this is what it’s really all about.

Recorded years ago. Did her ‘prophecy’ come true?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wheels Come Off … Biotech

October 13, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-22-04, GDX, GDXJ, IYR, LABD, LABD-22-08, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Epoch Times, ZeroHedge

Unraveling, Quickly

This just out on ZeroHedge:

An Epoch Times article, using excerpts from a Lancet Report, linked here.

It’s best to let the reader sort out what it all means, arriving at one’s own conclusions.

Of course, the obvious problem, the ‘elephant’ is not addressed directly.

However, VAERS is quoted in The Epoch Times article, thus giving it legitimacy.

Leading The Downside

For some time, this site’s highlighted, biotech (SPBIO), as unique to all other indices save GDX, and GDXJ.

That is, it’s down the most since the bear market started.

As of today’s close, it’s down over – 54%, from all-time highs while the S&P is down only – 23.7%.

As documented over several years, the sector’s unique; it’s at risk (more than other indices) to implosion.

With today’s close, it looks like we’re at a critical juncture.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

The unmarked weekly chart

Compressed, with added trendlines.

It’s an obvious trading channel of immense size … but so is nearly everything else concerning these markets. We’re operating at unprecedented scale in unprecedented times.

But wait, there’s more.

The trading channel has Fibonacci time correlation(s).

We’ll expand the weekly chart for more clarity.

From channel entry, week ending 9/3/21, to the right-most contact point (week ending 9/16/22), is Fibonacci 55-Weeks.

Channel width measured from week ending 1/28/22, to the same contact-point, week ending 9/16/22, is a Fibonacci 34-Weeks.

We’re at The Danger Point®

Positions & Current Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

The following is the positioning of my firm’s main (largest) account.

DRV-22-04:

Entry @ 66.463, Stop @ 63.98

Discretionary exit (today) @ 75.96***

Trade Closed

LABD-22-08:

Entry @ 25.1278, 24.735, 26.025***, 22.99***, Stop is Open (to be set at next session)

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla … Set To Implode

October 8, 2022 By in Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-07, Mass Psychosis, Taleb, Texas Freeze, The Speck, TSLA, TSLL, TSLS, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Watch The Tape

Two-year uptrend, broken.

A year’s-worth of ‘distribution’ from strong hands to weak.

Ten days from now is the next TSLA, earnings release.

With TSLA, price action approaching The Danger Point®, that earnings release is likely to be a catalyst.

The monthly chart has the trendline (and channel) break along with the distribution phase.

Tesla TSLA, Monthly

Note, each thrust attempt higher (magenta arrows) has subsequently failed.

Thrusts following the first one, are at lower levels.

The weekly chart below, shows what we’re looking for; penetration of support to potentially set up a short-trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

When or if that penetration takes place, depending on the depth of the thrust, we’ll have a Wyckoff spring set up … that ultimately is expected to fail.

Ways To Trade

As if on cue and possibly in anticipation of TSLA fireworks, there’s a long and short ETF, for just this ticker.

Released just months ago; TSLS, a 1X inverse (bear) TSLA. The bull side has 1.5X leverage with TSLL.

TSLS, has a 100% maintenance requirement and TSLL, has the same.

Or, one can short directly.

There’s no dividend and the broker used by my firm shows TSLA, has no borrowing restrictions other than a 40% maintenance requirement (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, there are options … we’ll discuss those if some kind of high probability opportunity presents itself.

The Masses

Let’s not forget the herd. What are they doing/saying?

With that in mind, a random check of our favorite holding pen, SeekingAlpha, has oodles of TLSA analysis.

The most recent is actually quite good from a thoroughness perspective. It admits/discusses the downward pressures and identifies the support/resistance levels discussed above.

The problem is the mass psychosis.

It’s the ‘EVs are the way’ mantra as if Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh himself, was communicating directly.

With the winter carnage in Europe just weeks away, we’re about to find out how green ‘electrics’ hold up when there is, well, no electricity.

Back to Biotech

While all of the above is transpiring, the real Black Swan continues to emerge; the latest here, here and here.

This event is happening now; the effects of which will last our lifetimes.

It’s massive and world-wide; likely to override any mainstream (traditional 60/40, type) analysis.

After letting go of the biotech short for the seventh time, two days later, this past Friday, it decides to reverse.

We’ll cover that in the next update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close …

October 5, 2022 By in Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-07, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, zsl, ZSL-22-01 1 Comment

The Tape Is Always Right

Once again, stopped-out of the biotech short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Call it bad timing, incorrect analysis or whatever. Every opportunity for SPBIO, to go lower is being thwarted … so, no more for now.

On the flip side, the potential collapse in silver has been discussed over the past few weeks, here, here, here and here.

Looking at the chart below, not only do we have a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, but unless it’s negated by subsequent price action, we’ve got an ‘island gap reversal’ as well.

Prices can’t be sustained at yesterday’s higher level.

Silver SLV, Daily

As previously discussed, very late in the session as SLV, price action rose higher, reducing the risk, a short was entered via Leveraged Inverse Fund ZSL @ 28.08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The trade is identified as ZSL-22-01.

An obvious hard-stop would be yesterday’s high in SLV, or the corresponding low in ZSL @ 26.55.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Reversal … The Big One ?

October 5, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-07, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO

Seventh Time A Charm

‘Get right and sit tight’ … Livermore

Well, it’s the ‘get right’ part that’s the challenge.

As for Biotech SPBIO, it’s no secret it’s been on again, off again, then back on again.

So, it is. Based on current price acton, yesterday was a head-fake into the 38% retrace.

This morning’s session attempted to move higher but was rejected within the first 3-minutes.

Once again, the short trade via LABD, has been re-established (not advice, not a recommendation).

We have LABD-22-07; entered at 21.88, with a stop at the session low of 20.88.

At this juncture (10:50 a.m., EST), Inverse Fund LABD, is pushing higher.

The hourly chart of SPBIO, shows the 38% retrace and reversal.

Biotech SPBIO, Hourly

Expanded version.

As of this post (10:50 a.m., EST) price action has just filled the gap from yesterday’s session. Some amount of SPBIO, retrace higher (below this morning’s highs) is reasonable.

Summary

The groundwork has already been laid over the past few months and even as far back as one year, why this sector may be set for a stupendous decline.

Of course, we don’t know if ‘this is it’, until it’s all over.

For now, the LABD position is in the green with a hard stop at the session low of 20.88 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sanity, Amidst Chaos

October 4, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-06, Positions, SPBIO

Biotech About To Go ‘Up-Thrust’

With about three-minutes to go before the close, the stop was hit at LABD: 20.90.

Short position LABD-22-06, is closed (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘timing‘ analysis was overridden by the market about mid-session; there’s obviously something at work on a longer timeframe.

We’ll look at what that might be with the 4-Hour chart of biotech SPBIO.

SPBIO, 4-Hour Candle

The chart shows price action pushing past the 38% level just before the close.

Unless there’s a major gap lower at tomorrow’s open, the stage is set for SPBIO, to push on higher to the 50%, retrace.

However, another set-up could be in the works.

We’re going back to our usual trick of taking the above chart an inverting it to show what inverse fund LABD would look like with no tracking errors.

SPBIO, 4-Hour Candle (Inverted)

Now we see what may be happening.

A decisive push below support, puts the inverted chart (i.e., LABD) in ‘spring’ position.

Conversely, SPBIO, would be in ‘up-thrust’ condition at the same time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Timing The Market

October 4, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-06, Positions, SPBIO 1 Comment

Less Time Pushing Higher

The danger of this situation can’t be over emphasized.

Not only do market levels and depth of penetration need to be watched but also the time; time spent pushing higher or lower.

Biotech SPBIO, indeed moved higher and penetrated our previously stated 6,384.50 level; here’s the important part: As of now (11:34 a.m., EST), it’s struggling to hold that level.

Looking at leveraged inverse fund LABD, on a 30-minute basis, the market itself is showing, each successive thrust lower (higher for SPBIO), spends less and less time at the new level.

Like a drowning swimmer coming up for less air each time.

The market (SPBIO) may get itself together and somehow continue higher.

However, at this point, we’ve got a hard stop; this morning’s LABD low, of 20.90 (not advice, not a recommendation).

SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD: 30-minutes

Today’s close is likely to be important.

A failure to push lower for LABD, may indicate “we’re done” and now ready for a decisive reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Fractal Symmetry … & … Biotech

October 1, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-06, Positions, SPBIO

Repeating & Infinitely Complex

Broccoli

Every market has its own characteristics; patterns that repeat.

Biotech (SPBIO) is no different.

Based on its own repeating fractal characteristics, probabilities continue to point to the downside; but first, the ‘reset’.

Out Again, In Again

Everyone has their own style, risk, and pain tolerance.

What’s presented on these posts is NOT financial advice.

It is however, how one professional is approaching, managing, and positioning in what may go down in history as the largest financial, societal, and political collapse ever.

Let’s not lose sight of that ‘macro’ condition.

It’s difficult to grasp the enormity. The ‘pundits’ are already looking for a ‘bottom‘; a bottom that in reality, is probably years if not decades away.

This past Friday, saw a complete exit of the short position LABD-22-05 & TDA-LABD-22-02 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As we’ll see below, once SPBIO, price action showed itself to be failing its up-move and subsequently reversing to the downside, the short was re-established: LABD-22-06.

In effect, the entire short trade was ‘reset’.

At the close, LABD-22-06, was well in the green.

By the way, After The Close … was released just before 6:00 p.m. EST, yesterday. That gave anyone who wanted, a two-hour window to position in the after-hours market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, on to the fractals.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

We’ll go straight to the marked-up weekly.

The Fibonacci retrace tool shows SPBIO, dipped down to 61.8%, before rebounding higher; a deep retrace, indicating overall upside weakness.

The zoom version below shows the detail of price action rebounding off the 61.8%, then going straight to 38.2% before backing-off.

Here’s The Fractal Part (below)

Getting closer-in on this past week’s action, we’ll use an hourly chart.

It shows the closing low on Monday, the rebound from Tuesday through Wednesday, the retrace on Thursday and the Up-Thrust on Friday.

SPBIO, Hourly

And with zoom.

Once again, during the retrace, price action went to the 61.8%, level just like it did on the weekly.

Characteristics repeating on multiple time frames.

Deep retrace typically indicates overall weakness.

Test, Fail, or Not

This coming Monday, anything can happen.

Price action can come back to the up-thrust and then reverse lower: Test.

It can come up and penetrate the up-thrust, moving decisively higher: Fail

It can gap-lower, move lower, never look back: Not.

The Danger Point®

That’s where we are now.

If price action moves decisively higher and penetrates Friday’s high, it then precipitates an exit of the LABD position.

The other two scenarios, indicate maintaining the position; adding to the size as the market allows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close …

September 30, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-06, Positions, SPBIO 1 Comment

Biotech Fails To Move Higher

Most important of all in trading, are the failed moves.

Failed moves offer the potential for low-risk entry.

What originally appeared to be a strong launch higher that may have taken SPBIO to a 50% retrace, failed at 38%.

The sector closed up for the day but far below its session high.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

Price action closed well below the resistance area.

Zoom version below shows slight new daily high (mini-up-thrust) before retracing lower.

The technical details of what is going in will be covered over the weekend.

However, from a positioning standpoint, the short was re-established (via LABD) as it was obvious the move higher was failing (not advice, not a recommendation).

The new short position is labeled LABD-22-06, with an initial entry of LABD, 22.12.

More details to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279