Category Archives: SLV

Turnaround Tuesday?

November 21, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, Real Estate, SLV, SPBIO, SRS-23-04, XBI, zsl, ZSL-23-01 1 Comment

Possible Reversal During The Holiday Week

While no-one’s looking, markets tend to reverse.

Typically, that happens before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Perhaps, the most famous of these was the day after Labor Day Weekend, September 3rd, 1929, the all-time high up to that point.

Adding substance to the assertion, the all-time high (thus far) for the S&P 500, was January 4th, 2022, with the closing high the day before.

So, here we are in the midst of the Thanksgiving holiday week. Is the market going to reverse?

Biotech SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI, Daily

The November 3rd, update showed the target area for biotech ($SPSIBI).

Price action decisively penetrated that area yesterday and then immediately started to retrace.

As of this post (10:12 a.m., EST), price action has printed a new daily low.

Positioning

As stated in this update, the coming week was likely to see adjustments to open short positions.

The Real Estate (SRS-23-04) and Silver (ZSL-23-01) shorts have been closed, with the biotech (LABD-23-13) position increased (not advice, not a recommendation.

The Hard Stop for LABD-23-13, is LABD 17.62 but will likely be moved to the session low, currently LABD 18.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Going Short on ‘Corrective Waves’

November 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, SLV, SPBIO, SRS, SRS-23-04, XBI, ZeroHedge, zsl, ZSL-23-01 2 Comments

All The Same ‘Look’

Did we just have the largest bull trap in market history?

Now, after the bulls (may) have been caught off-guard, we have this; the specter of ‘deflation‘ and demand destruction.

Last Tuesday’s CPI report provided a backdrop for the continued squeeze higher.

Over the past several weeks, at least three markets have developed the same (bearish) ‘look’.

They’re posting corrective ‘a-b-c’ price action, going against the main trend.

SLV, IYR & XBI, Weekly

Take a look, all similar in their formation.

Positioning

As of the close on Friday, I have positioned short in all three markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

The IYR short was initiated this past Wednesday, the Silver short on Thursday, then just minutes before the close on Friday, the biotech short.

Trades are labeled as SRS-23-04, ZSL-23-01, LABD-23-13

Next Steps

The coming week is likely to see one, or a variation of the following: all trades stopped out, one or two trades with discretionary exit, then followed by potential concentration on the best candidate.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Upside Breakout

November 16, 2023 By in Gold & Silver, Positions, SLV, UNG, UNG-23-05, zsl, ZSL-23-01 1 Comment

Above Resistance, In (Potential) Trouble

So, Tuesday, the shorts were carried out on stretchers.

No matter the sharp upward spike, short covering has not changed the tsunami; the ‘liquidity crisis‘.

Basically, there’s not enough cash to go around, not enough in a big way.

Is it possible, in the coming year, there will be huge demand for cash … fiat cash?

With that backdrop we have silver (SLV) making lower highs and lower lows.

Silver SLV, Daily

The chart shows a breakout above resistance. The question is, can it hold?

With price action where it is, just above resistance, SLV is at The Danger Point®

If it can’t push materially higher from here, it’s at risk of reversal.

Positioning

Silver:

With the above conditions and potential for downside, a short position was opened via Leveraged Inverse Fund ZSL

Entry at ZSL 18.18 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hard Stop is TBD but will likely be the session low @ ZSL 18.04.

Trade is, ZSL-23-01

Natural Gas:

Trade UNG-23-05, was stopped out this session at UNG 6.44 for a minor profit of 0.10-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver: Breakout or Test?

October 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, Gold & Silver, LABD, LABD-23-11, Michael Cowan, Positions, SLV, SPBIO 2 Comments

Non-Confirmation

First off, before we get started, there’s this on ZeroHedge; Gold price out of control?

The short answer is ‘probably not’ and we’ll use the confirmation proxy Silver (SLV), as our example (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Silver Non-Confirmation

In a traditional ‘inflation’ scenario, silver and gold typically move in tandem.

We can see that’s the case during the last (major) inflation event back in the late ’70s and early ’80s.

Gold spiked right along with silver; Gold chart link here. Silver chart link here.

That Was Then

What we have now, is different. Something’s wrong.

Silver’s not confirming the price rise of gold; Silver vs. Gold, link here.

There’s a massive divergence between the two.

Silver (SLV) Weekly Close

The SLV weekly, shows we’ve broken down from a wedge, now testing the underside of resistance.

Silver more than gold, is tied directly to the economy; over half of all silver is used in production.

It seems, production is about to fall off a cliff.

Evidence can be seen in a corollary indicator, layoffs.

Mass Layoffs

As Michael Cowan shows (time stamp 1:30), layoffs are accelerating.

Let’s not forget, ShadowStats shows its own unemployment indicator, already at Depression Era levels.

Positioning

On this site, beginning in mid-September, short positions (via LABD) were opened in possibly, the weakest sector, biotech, SPBIO, $SPSIBI (not advice, not a recommendation).

The initial position was stopped out (gain around +21%), then re-established the same day (LABD-23-11) with an LABD entry of 21.69.

So far, with today’s action, LABD’s trading around 23.90; approximately + 10% from the entry.

In addition, we now have a new Hard Stop @ LABD 21.65, yesterday’s low (not advice, not a recommendation)

Chart updates are planned for the next post.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s Pivot … Debt Default?

August 12, 2023 By in Activist Post, China, Gold & Silver, Prechter, Silver Collapse, SLV, South Sea Bubble

SLV, Targeting Single Digits

Silver’s an industrial metal and that industry worldwide, is in full-blown collapse.

Maersk reports shipping trade implodes.

Warehouse vacancy space in California’s industrial sector is increasing and the consumer, may have finally spent themselves into oblivion.

Let’s throw on top, the food supply continues to contract just as forecast.

With all that, one can ask:

‘Just how’s silver going to enter into a bull market under these conditions?’

So far, since this post and this one, over two years ago, it hasn’t (not advice, not a recommendation).

A New Down Channel

Silver continues its bear market that started way back in April, of 2011.

However, early-May and late-July peaks in SLV, appear to confirm the right side of a new down channel.

Silver SLV, Monthly Candle

With successive hits on the right side, trending down, there appears to be a significant barrier to moving higher.

The next chart uses a standard Fibonacci projection tool, showing potential downside targets.

The critical area on the chart is the ‘23.6%’ projection to the SLV 19-area.

If price action retraces to this level and then starts to change character, it’s a possible bullish indication.

If not, and we push lower, SLV then continues on with its decade-long decline.

Sovereign Default … Waiting

There’s a lot of world-wide debt built up in the system.

China appears ready to collapse into a real estate depression … probably co-incident with our own.

Couple that with record level stock valuations, record margin borrowing and mass psychosis, not seen since at least South Sea Bubble of 1720.

Could it be, among many trigger-events, we get a sovereign debt crisis (assets dumped to pay debt) that send both gold and silver to much lower levels?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Too Late To Short ?

May 26, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, JDST, SLV 1 Comment

Trader’s Discretion

For the current down-leg starting April 14th, the lowest risk point to go short the miners (via JDST) was at this post (not advice, not a recommendation).

Did I do that?

No, but I did the next best thing.

That was, aggressively position short at this post (not advice, not a recommendation).

An initial position was opened via JDST on May 15th with a hard stop at the session low; that position was doubled in size the next day when it was obvious, we’re in a reversal.

Too Late?

What happens now?

We’re about fifteen minutes before the regular session and GDXJ, looks to open slightly higher.

The Daily Chart of GDXJ below shows a penetration of the wedge with the market in position to test that break.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Candle

The zoom moves in closer to show the detail.

Note: The last push below the wedge trendline resulted in a reversal higher. Will that happen this time?

If we use the ‘rule of alternation’, that what happened last time is not likely to happen this time, probabilities favor a test and continuation to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Is this an entry opportunity? Maybe.

Is it as low risk as the prior two pivot points? Probably not.

Then again, the bulls may be stunned at this point and usure what to do. Therefore, huge short positions may not (yet) be in play that don’t need to be squeezed out.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dutch Masters

May 25, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, JDST, Neil McCoy-Ward, NVDA, SLV

More Than A Cigar

Dutch government puts the death knell on their economy … others will likely follow.

While the i-phone crowd is so easily distracted with AI and NVDA being their savior, back at the ranch, economies are being systematically destroyed.

Besides copper, one of the best indicators of robust economic activity is silver (SLV).

Since January, this site has highlighted the potential for a significant, sustained reversal in the precious metals; specifically, gold and silver.

Now, both the charts of GLD, and SLV, have weekly bearish MACD divergences (not shown); having just crossed the zero line with one more trading day to go.

Using a recent weekly bearish divergence as an example, natural gas (UNG), shows us the possibility; UNG is now down – 82%, (at the lows) in just 37-weeks.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

If gold and silver decline relentlessly from here, the sector most likely to take the biggest hit, is/are the ‘Juniors’, GDXJ.

Once the public figures out en masse, they’ve been fooled into ‘stacking’ instead of securing their food supply, precious metals are likely to accelerate to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, that public has to ‘wake up’, first 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Kabuki ‘Debt Ceiling’, & Gold

May 24, 2023 By in David Weis, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, JDST, SLV, Wyckoff 2 Comments

How To Trade ‘Kabuki’

You would think with all the handwringing, mental machinations, ‘debt ceiling’, we’re all going bankrupt, YouTube gold grifters et al, gold (GLD) would be in a monstrous rally.

Instead, we have what appears to be exhaustion and non-confirmation.

Gold (GCM23), is the only monetary metal (gold, palladium, platinum, silver) anywhere near its all-time highs.

Old-timers would call it a huge non-confirmation. The other metals are not on board with the ‘inflation’ narrative.

Time and again, we’re back to actually reading price action and having it tell us what’s real, not the mainstream.

So, trading ‘kabuki’ seems to be straightforward; just read the chart. Here’s one explanation from an unlikely source on why that simple task is so difficult: absolute, total, unrelenting focus.

Gold (GLD), Daily

When we look at gold (as of 12:05 p.m. EST), from a technical standpoint, it’s in Wyckoff spring position; a set-up to move higher.

The difference in this set-up as opposed to the one on November 3rd, of 2022 (not shown), price action’s ‘hugging the lows’ as David Weis used to call it.

We’re not springing higher.

The miners on the other hand (GDX, GDXJ) have already made their decision, moving decisively lower during this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The chart below has two locations identified.

The first is this post identifying GDXJ, as a potential short opportunity.

The second is this post identifying the ‘test, reverse’ of the up-thrust with high probability of more downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

We can see the result.

Even though gold (GLD) had declined modestly with silver (SLV) more-so, the mining sector appears to be responding dramatically to the downside.

This ‘elevated metals, miners collapsing’ potential has been discussed previously.

Now, it appears that strategy is coming into play (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miner’s Reversal … Still Early

May 16, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, SLV

A Long Way To Go

If this is the ‘big one’ that everyone’s talking about, the miners have a long way to go to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

When there’s a viable, bearish (or bullish) divergence, then price action has the potential to go much farther and the move last much longer than anyone would expect.

Junior Miners GDXJ (as well as GDX), have posted a bearish MACD divergence on the weekly time frame … very significant.

That divergence is shown below:

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Candle

Price action goes one way (i.e., up) while MACD goes the other … down.

Other posts have already covered details of the current set-up, now reversal, links here and here.

Not covered yet, is the apparent repeating trendline and potential trading channel.

That is shown on the daily close chart of GDXJ, below:

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close

At the minimum, on the right side of the chart we have a down trendline. An upside break of this line would negate any short positions … (not advice, not a recommendation).

The compressed chart of GDXJ (below), shows the potential.

As of this post (12:57 p.m., EST) GDXJ, continues to move decisively lower. Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have reversed to the downside.

Gold’s reversal potential has been discussed previously here, and here.

No one expects a significant reversal in gold …. no one.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Test & Reverse

May 15, 2023 By in GDXJ, GLD, JDST, SLV, Wyckoff 4 Comments

Decisive Rejection

Is the bottom about to fall out?

The last update on the Junior Gold Miners GDXJ, said they were hanging by a thread.

That update even included a forecast which turned out to be wrong and right at the same time (not advice, not a recommendation).

The miners have reversed … it just did not happen the next day as shown on the forecast chart.

The decisive rejection of the resistance (and test) level happened four days later.

Today, continued a slight retrace of that down-move as shown on the daily close chart below.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close

The attempt to push above known resistance (blue line) has failed. Price action had a false breakout (Wyckoff Up-Thrust), then a test and subsequent failure of that test.

The zoom of the reversal area shows more detail.

Last Friday’s session closed higher as did today … however today’s volume (i.e., commitment) was down – 49.4% when compared to the prior session.

The buyers are pulling back … price action is drifting higher.

On a weekly basis, we still have a bearish MACD divergence (not shown). Probabilities at this point indicate lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279