Category Archives: Wyckoff

Deep Dive: Gold Reversal

June 27, 2021 By in GDX, GOLD, Gold Miners, ice-age-farmer, Prechter, The Speck, Van Metre, Wyckoff

Gold Miner’s GDX

Fibonacci Projection

Rule of Alternation

Wyckoff analysis was used to identify the GDX up-thrust, reversal condition.

Nine trading days later, GDX is down a stiff -11.7%, from the analysis location.

It’s down -14.9% from its interim high set on May 19th.

What happens next?

This site offers a different perspective (more thoughtful, perhaps) than ‘stacking’ precious metals as high as possible.

Thoughts such as, major infrastructure disruptions (and more) are likely:

That includes nationwide power outages, food transport interruptions (or cancelled outright) along with massive ‘speck’ injected casualties (estimated past 100,000), see this report.

The very last thing you’ll need in that environment, is a stack of metal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Personal anecdote, skip to GDX Chart, if not interested.

These updates are originating from the North-Central area of Texas (DFW). When the historic cold snap rolled through this past February, the power went out repeatedly.

The first thought was not: “I’m sure glad I have my stack of silver to get me through”

No. The thinking was (in this order):

Food, water (water was second as there was plenty of it just outside as snow), munitions and ‘delivery mechanisms’, cash in case the gas station was operational … which is was not and then lastly, heat.

The location was using natural gas for heating and was available as long as there was power

Precious metals were nowhere on the list … not even considered. They had nothing to do with the situation at hand.

Precious metals come later … after the famine.

GDX Chart:

The original analysis from June 8th, is below:

Subsequent trade action (including the original notes):

Weekly chart showing Fibonacci downside projection to level(s) mentioned frequently by Steven Van Metre.

In the chart above, note the choppy action leading down to the most recent upside pivot (early March). That area expanded below:

If we’re in a reversal to much lower levels, the market tends to alternate.

It was choppy and overlapping action from the highs in August of ’20 to the March ’21, low.

Thus far at the pivot high in late May, its been essentially straight down.

With the planned outages discussed above, precious metals may become (temporarily) irrelevant.

If or when that happens, it may be time to consider a ‘stack’.

Of course, by then, no one will want to buy (and spend their worthless fiat cash) for risk of starving to death. This is how markets work.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dow Theory Sell: Update

June 23, 2021 By in Charles Dow, DIA, Wyckoff

12:51 p.m., EST

Upward Retrace To 38%

Downtrend To Resume?

It’s natural market behavior to rebound after a breakdown low.

Stops are hit; Amateurs sell and sell short. Professionals cover their shorts; go long or look to short again.

It’s what happens next, that’s important.

The market, DIA will likely come back to test the support/resistance boundary (blue line) in the daily chart above.

At this juncture, even though Dow Theory Sell was triggered (not advice, not a recommendation) with DIA closing below support last Friday, from a Wyckoff standpoint, DIA is in spring position.

Spring position; the market’s poised (but not guaranteed) to move higher.

If DIA comes back to test the boundary (typical behavior), there are two outcomes:

No. 1:

The test holds; price reverses and we’re on to potential new highs

No. 2:

The test fails; price re-penetrates the lows and then heads (much) lower.

Adding weight to the second scenario, DIA has already posted a new monthly low. That’s not happened since October last year.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Deep Dive: Biotech

June 20, 2021 By in Biotech, IBB, LABD, Livermore, Neil McCoy-Ward, Nuremberg 2.0, SPBIO, The Speck, Van Metre, Wyckoff

Biotech Reversal

Downside Projections

Nuremberg 2.0

For what seems the longest time, a recurring focus of this site has been the biotech sector.

Specifically, the IBB (ETF) and SPBIO (Index).

There’s good reason for that. In this update, we’ll go deeper into the downside opportunity.

Biotech Reversal:

SPBIO, topped out on February 9th this year. The IBB (ETF) topped one day later.

Both went on to form a Quarterly reversal bar; indicating a long term change in character.

Of the two, SPBIO has showed more weakness having posted monthly lower lows for three successive months.

That relative weakness over the IBB index, has resulted in focusing on the inverse of SPBIO; specifically the 3X inverse, LABD.

Working with leveraged inverse funds is only profitable on a short-term basis or when the underlying index is in a persistent down-trend.

Otherwise, typical market chop results in value erosion of the inverse fund (not advice, not a recommendation).

For the reasons discussed in the last section below (Nuremburg 2.0), we’re anticipating the index to have a sustained and persistent drop to much lower levels.

Downside Projections:

Going way back to Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and the Wyckoff Stock Market Institute training materials, both in their own way indicated a speculative position was only entered if there was sufficient potential.

Livermore’s 10-points or more and Wyckoff’s cause and effect

In Wyckoff’s case, the ’cause’ was price action congestion built up in the P&F chart.

The ‘effect’ was the resulting move.

Which brings us to now:

Many times on this site, we’ve said biotech has built up congestion in a way, when it reverses and begins its decline, price action itself will create lower targets.

We’ll present two charts showing how that’s happening.

The first P&F chart in this update and provided below, has a projected downside target for IBB around, 116 – 120 area:

Note, the downside is not to scale as the real location is far below the noted area.

Biotech IBB, then went on to post lower action. That in turn has resulted in an updated downside target:

Once again, the downside is not to scale.

It’s apparent, as IBB heads lower, it successively builds lower targets and it’s only (potentially) just getting started.

The weekly chart of IBB below, spells it out:

If and when IBB price action gets to the initial targets, it enters a congestion area that will (by that time) be over seven years wide.

If the trend is still down, that congestion in turn would target even lower levels.

The “-80%” interestingly enough, comes from a quote by Steven Van Metre at this link.

That 80% drop also corresponds to a downside Fibonacci (not shown) projection of 423.6%, on the above chart.

Nuremberg 2.0

This phrase has become so ubiquitous you can do a search for it.

So far, not a single mainstream financial site or YouTuber (still on that platform) has mentioned this fact in their analysis.

The speck injections are mass genocide and intended as such.

Two recent events resulting from injections are here and here.

If all of a sudden, injected pilots can’t fly (the first link), how are goods going to be transported?

Not generally known to the public, commercial air-transport is also used to haul freight (while carrying passengers).

Exactly how all of this (world crime) will break is unknown.

If and when it does, the result in the biotech sector as well as equities in general, could be successive air-pockets all the way down.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Channel … Down

June 15, 2021 By in Biotech, Corn, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IBB, SPBIO, Wyckoff

10:47 a.m., EST

Contact points confirm channel

Gold (GLD) heading lower

The two hits on the right side channel line provide confirmation of the trend.

An expanded version of the daily is below:

So far, we’ve had the blockage of the Suez Canal. Auto parts being sent to the bottom of the ocean off Japan. ‘Mysterious’ grain silo fires destroying harvested crops.

But wait, there’s more. This just in:

A fire has destroyed the largest grease plant in the U.S.

If transportation is shut down as a result of cyber attack, fuel pipelines off-line, no grease to lubricate the wheels or any number of other (planned … and don’t think there’re not) events, the last thing that’s going to help get anyone through, is a ‘stack’ of inedible metal.

It’s no secret this site’s been using the Biblical precedent of Genesis 41.

That is: Grain and Corn come first … then gold and silver.

The ‘stacking’ public has got this message reversed. Of course, this is not advice or a recommendation.

However, for those that can see, it’s so obvious the goal is ‘controlled demolition’ of the supply chain. All of it.

We’ll put everything back to ‘normal’ if you just get injected.

Meanwhile, biotech IBB, and SPBIO, have both posted a new daily low.

IBB is poised to penetrate the resistance area identified in this update, and come back to test the wide bar.

If that happens, we have a Wyckoff up-thrust in play. More analysis of biotech to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dow Theory Sell & Gold

June 14, 2021 By in Charles Dow, Dollar, Dow 30, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, UUP, Wyckoff 2 Comments

9:23 a.m., EST

Dow Theory; Sell signal nears

Gold, in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ reversal

Even though the current environment is anything but traditional, the report at this link shows how close the market is to a Dow Theory sell signal.

It could be. Even with valuations and markets at never before seen extremes, the traditional theory will still hold.

Wyckoff analysis, developed during the same time as Dow (published in 1910), does not concern itself with ‘valuations’.

That’s the key

Wyckoff discovered early on, that ‘markets have an energy of their own’.

This ‘energy’ has nothing to do with valuations.

Gold (GLD) has been discussed several times over the past few weeks; that it has stalled and in potential reversal.

The weekly chart shows the blue line resistance area. Price action has struggled at this location for weeks.

Now, with the market about to open, GLD is trading down a solid -2.5 points, or – 1.4%.

If that level is held to the open, it puts GLD below the June 3rd (weekly) low and below the resistance area.

With all the inflation, and hyperinflation talk, GLD has not made it to new highs.

Last week, the dollar reversal was confirmed with UUP posting a new weekly high. At the same time, weekly MACD confirmed its bullish divergence.

The stage appears to be set for some kind of surprise; in the markets, the dollar and gold.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Moderna: Reversal Review

June 12, 2021 By in Biotech, Bonds, Dollar, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IBB, MRNA, Wyckoff 1 Comment

‘Reversal at hand’ said the prior update

Reversal still imminent?

MRNA has pushed above resistance on declining volume (shown above) . The next chart has MRNA in a terminating wedge pattern:

Price action this past week has just contacted the top portion of the wedge.

MRNA is the fifth-largest cap equity in the IBB index. Its market moves have a definite effect on that index.

IBB, shown below:

On Friday, the market eased back a little. Will it come back to test the resistance area next week?

There’s no doubt about the wide high volume bar. That day (last Monday) posted the highest daily volume in four years.

Wide high-volume areas are usually tested.

It just so happens, that wide area is below resistance.

To test the wide bar, price action would need to move below the resistance area. Doing so, would put a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ into play.

The next chart shows another resistance area not easily discernable:

Although somewhat hidden, there’s another resistance level that for now is putting a limit on the upward travel of IBB.

Summary:

MRNA’s at an extreme. The previous update linked to a site which shows insiders bailing out in the tens-of-millions of dollars.

The bond market, with its upside breakout is not confirming the ‘recovery’ narrative.

The dollar is reversing as well.

Gold and the miners have stalled; potentially reversing.

The narrative is shifting as the media (all controlled don’t forget) has decided on its sacrificial, e-mail lamb.

Don’t worry, nobody’s going to jail. It will just be another distraction to keep the mask wearing masses from getting prepared for the fall.

As a reminder, this is how they think; ‘Just doing the right thing’ Almost like ‘Just following orders’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Correction Over?

May 18, 2021 By in Biotech, DJUSBM, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff

3:34 p.m., EST

SPBIO may have completed its correction.

Above is the hourly SPBIO chart; inverted and annotated.

Under the conditions shown above, when price action penetrates support and then reverses, it’s called a Wyckoff ‘spring’.

From this point, the expectation is for a moderate rise, then test and then a dynamic rise to the top of the trading range.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Fear and Greed

April 30, 2021 By in Biotech, David Weis, IBB, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff

12:31 p.m. EST

Of the two emotions, fear is easier to trade.

Trading professionals prefer down markets.

Even in his trading video, the late David Weis remarks … ‘I have a preference for down markets …’

Profits come nearly twice as fast and the bottom is easier to detect.

With that in mind, the daily chart of inverse biotech fund LABD, has been noted showing both emotions:

Extreme fear shows up as spikes at the trend line. Also noticeable, the spikes are widely spaced.

Greed on the other hand, is spaced closer and harder to detect. Remember, we’re looking at the inverse (LABD); fear and greed locations are swapped.

Moving on to the set-up, the Wyckoff spring:

Considering the current situation … i.e. valuations, margin debt, retail participation extremes, the above forecast is a modest one.

A potential doubling in value (measured move).

The expectation is for LABD to contact the upper trading range somewhere around 27.50 (not advice, not a recommendation).

If it does and then breaks to the upside, a standard measured move (trading range distance, magenta lines) would target the 40-area.

At this juncture, the market (SPBIO) is giving no overt indication of imminent collapse.

This is how markets work.

If we do get the expected wipeout, be prepared for the usual suspects to come out and say ‘No one saw it coming.’

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Amgen: Fakeout-Breakout?

April 16, 2021 By in AMGN, Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Project Stimulus, The Speck, Wyckoff 3 Comments

11:56 a.m. EST:

Amgen’s sotorasib news could be its all time high.

Immediately following that announcement, AMGN went into a 20% decline (‘sign of supply’).

In Wyckoff terms, we can look at the action from late January to now as a massive ‘up-thrust’ (false breakout).

That up-thrust is now being tested … with another breakout attempt.

If that’s the case and the test fails with price action retreating from here, then AMGN’s set-up for a significant downward reversal.

Significant in that we’re not (ever) coming back to these levels.

That statement might seem hyperbolic and it very well could be.

However, when one looks at reports like this, insiders are bailing out; leaving “retail” holding the bag as usual.

Fundamentals:

Although not directly related to AMGN, we have yet another horror show in the biotech arena.

The wheels are falling off the ‘speck’ false narrative; tragically so.

The following is taken from the comment section of the video post:

From the guy who filmed :

“Less than 5 minutes from getting God knows what injected inside them the two people to my left starting having seizures. First the gentlemen in the red car was watching in shock as the driver next to him was having a seizure. Little did he know he would have one right after him. I called the medics to help him. They have a procedure where after you get the shot you have to wait in the car for 15 min and if something goes wrong to honk your horn and someone will show up. Well these folks to my left just passed out into seizures with no warning.

You would think it’s just a matter of time before this reaches some kind of tipping point; where enough of the herd realizes all at once, the lie.

Positioning:

The last post has us breaking the rules. Was that the right thing to do?

This morning’s price action has the answer: Yes.

The Project Stimulus table has been updated to include the new (hard) stop level. With LABD currently up a good 5.50%, and looking to move higher, it’s not likely the stop will be hit.

There is one caveat: As of this post, IBB has not printed a new daily low. That leaves the (slight) possibility open for a move higher.

Several attempts have been made to short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). It looks like the current attempt is underway.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Market Duality: Silver

April 1, 2021 By in Gold & Silver, SLV, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Silver, SLV’s at a juncture where it can either go sharply higher or continue lower from here

Punching through support puts SLV at the danger point.

Whenever price action penetrates support and hesitates, it’s in Wyckoff spring position; poised to move higher.

Because we’ve got a weekly MACD bearish divergence in addition to a huge volume ‘changing of hands’ on February 1st, probability would favor downside action … continuing on to 17.50 – 18.00 area.

Nonetheless, SLV could rally from here … even in the midst of a longer term bearish (deflationary) environment.

The precious metals sector is a crowded trade and one to be avoided (not advice, not a recommendation).

An interesting post on the current inflation/deflation scenario is here.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.