The first part describes some technical details that are all true … after that, well, you decide.
Turns out, gold is going to skyrocket because of Russia !
I suppose, anything can happen.
We get fundamentals and anecdotal data as the reasoning for a Russia driven up-side breakout.
The problem with fundamentals is, they don’t work.
They never have worked.
Wyckoff discovered this a century ago when he said (from his autobiography) that ‘stocks move based on a power of their own. That power, has nothing to do with fundamentals.’
Trading genius Ed Seykota repeated that truth during his interview for ‘Market Wizards’.
He called them ‘funny mentals’ and went on to say he nearly, if not always lost money using them.
This article’s so good that I have to pay to read it.
From reading the shaded area, we can infer a similar (bullish) discussion to the first link above.
Sorry, not interested.
Summary
This time really could be different. Gold could launch into a sustained upward breakout.
However, the charts (GDX, GDXJ) at this juncture, are saying ‘not yet’.
Maintaining short (not advice, not a recommendation) via DUST … which is now in the green.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
A higher XOP open would have probably been a short set-up (DUG) failure.
However, that’s not what happened.
The open was lower but then price action went on to post a new daily high above yesterday’s.
At this juncture, the short set-up is still valid (not advice, not a recommendation).
How can a new daily high be acceptable for a short position?
Repeating Set-Up:
Back in August this post was created to help document a market behavior that’s probably been repeating since the beginning.
My former mentor, David Weis used to call it ‘Spring to Up-thrust’, using Wyckoff’s terminology.
The fact the set-up’s been repeating for decades, if not a century or more, is definitive proof traditional valuations and fundamentals have nothing to do with actual price movement.
That’s a topic for another time.
XOP Analysis:
We’ll start with an un-marked XOP daily chart:
It doesn’t look like much is going on. So, let’s zoom into the far right side using the 15-minute, below:
Ok, what am I supposed to see?
Marking up the chart, we have the following:
Once we have the correct annotations, it’s obvious XOP just posted a ‘Spring to Up-thrust’.
True, it’s on a minor time frame like the 15-minute; however, it does give a clue XOP, could be in for a more significant and longer-term reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Positioning:
If XOP is somehow able to post another new daily high during this session or subsequent, most likely it would be time to exit our short position (via DUG, not advice, not a recommendation).
For now, the expectation’s for continued oscillation below today’s high … while XOP figures out if that’s all there is for the up-side.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The daily chart above, shows our current location.
Inverting the chart and expanding the price action gives us the following:
Was today an attempt to break the up-trend (down-trend, non-inverted)?
Wyckoff called this type of sharp adverse move ‘threatening action’.
You won’t know if the market’s going to carry out the threat until the next session or subsequent sessions.
Positioning:
My firm’s (core) short position remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, the main account holding of LABD, was reduced by approximately 2.9%, during this session to adjust for margin requirements.
It’s important to note, the after hours session is already trading about 1% higher (for inverse LABD); a typical occurrence when the day’s move was a shakeout.
We’ll see if that action carries over to the regular session tomorrow.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Because, it’s the news that’s pushing around those who are easily manipulated, causing set-up(s) to materialize.
Decades ago, Wyckoff said that a speculator, will never be successful in the markets until they can completely ignore the news.
Sure, it’s important to monitor the news … but not for the purpose of speculating or investing.
Keep track of it to identify what they’re trying to accomplish. What’s the desired outcome for their press releases? Who are they trying to influence and maybe ask why?
Wyckoff went on to say (paraphrasing).
‘Put the other traders and speculators to work for you. Stand aside and let them spend their own money to drive prices into a high probability set-up.’
With that in mind, last week’s ‘Shakedown’ update on biotech SPBIO, and inverse fund LABD, said this:
“Because LABD, price action has hit the 21.40 area three times and rebounded, … it could, … could head lower for a penetration and spring set-up.”
Well, today was the penetration and spring set-up 🙂
Inverse Biotech Fund LABD
Hourly Chart
We’ve had the penetration of support … the rebound as well as what looks like a test.
Expectation for LABD, is to move higher from here to the top of the trading range.
Positioning:
My firm remains short SPBIO via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
Biotech’s showing weakness in the face of all-time highs in the S&P as well as the Dow.
What’s going to happen to ‘already in a bear market biotech’, when the overall markets reach their final top?
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
About a week ago, the fist bullet item in this list discussed Moderna; that when price action reverses to the down-side (after being a market darling), the lawsuits start.
It’s not the lawsuits themselves, but the discovery process that’s part of the trial … if it goes to trial.
One can guess with some assurance, the last thing Moderna wants is for this baby (any potential lawsuit) to go to discovery and trial.
This could be one of those times, popcorn is justified; watching it all from the sidelines.
Southwest Backs Off:
Looks like greed is more powerful than jabs.
At least we can see the priorities and keep that for future reference.
Now, all-of-a-sudden, it makes no sense to destroy executive stock options with forced collapse of the organization.
Glad we have such genius executives in charge. 🙂
Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch:
While all that’s going on, we still have the financial press talking about earnings and sales and ‘pent up demand’ like any of that is important or actually real.
The only reality at this point in time, is the price.
Biotech SPBIO, Inverse Fund LABD Analysis:
We’re going to start with the un-marked chart of SPBIO:
Next, we’re going to invert that chart; giving a better perspective of what the inverse fund LABD, is tracking:
Repeating a previous observation; price action over the last two months (from late August to now), has calmed down.
Price range has narrowed and movement looks orderly.
Our take on this; bears have assumed control and are preparing (opening positions) for a directional move.
Compared to my firm and probably anyone reading, their capital is unlimited. They’re also patient.
Depending on the level of greed, they’re keeping price action from a major breakout until positioning is complete (not advice, not a recommendation).
Wyckoff termed this phenomenon (a century ago) as the ‘composite operator’, or the ‘central mind’.
This is how markets work. There’s no getting away from it.
By making a transaction, any transaction, one has implicitly entered the ‘arena’ where the gladiators (the professionals) are ready to take all you own.
Moving in a little closer, we already have a trend.
Price action bounced off support on Friday (resistance on the inverted chart) but closed nearly unchanged.
My firm remains short SPBIO via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
That is, until the market itself says the bearish analysis is wrong or it’s time to exit.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Art & Science: Interpreting price action requires both.
Since the September 2nd, high in biotech SPBIO and low for inverse LABD, the character of the market has changed.
Price action has become tight and orderly.
Typically, when that happens, someone (some entity) is gaining control. They are preparing the market for a directional move.
That’s the science part; the observation part.
Art is ephemeral. You don’t know if it matters to the subject at hand or not.
You won’t know until it becomes obvious.
In the markets, when it’s obvious, it’s too late.
News Of Note:
Within the past few days, there have been at least two news stories of note: Here and here.
It’s not really the stories themselves but what they represent.
Go to time stamp 8:10, at this link. That’s what it’s about.
The so-called controlling entities may be in the early stages of consuming each other.
What does that have to do the the markets and specifically biotech? Those thinking they were safe and getting fake ‘protection’ could be realizing, maybe they didn’t.
Maybe it was the real thing.
Mid Session:
SPBIO (Inverse, LABD):
The market’s had a change in character.
Whether or not the above links were the reason, just part of the reason or not at all, won’t be known until long after the market opportunity has passed.
We’ll start with the un-marked daily chart of leveraged inverse fund LABD:
Tight price action identified:
Now, it gets interesting.
We’ll zoom in on part of the tight area using the hourly chart:
LABD has oscillated around support and then penetrated that support as shown.
Price action rose dramatically from there. We’ll label it as a sign of demand (Wyckoff term).
Next, we have the testing action. David Weis used to call it “The Gut Check”.
Tests can either pass or fail. That currently puts LABD at the danger point.
Positioning:
My firm’s position remains unchanged: Short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
Summary:
As this post is being created, LABD is moving up off the test lows. So far, overall price action has been well behaved.
Thus far, there has been no major (news generating) price break.
That type of controlled movement allows large positions to be built carefully and quietly (not advice not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Just like the biotech sector intentionally euthanizing (a polite word for what’s really happening) its customer base, here we have another entity calling out its own followers as the problem.
It’s similar to the rabid, mindless, one-way (only goes up) gold bulls crying ‘it’s all rigged’, when their pathetic attempts at analysis don’t work out; we now have another entity citing YOU as the problem when the forecasts fall flat.
This is yet another so-called financial source that can be permanently crossed off the watch list.
Brutal, But Beneficial:
Admittedly, the ‘tone’ of the posts on this site are not for everyone.
Even mild-mannered Dan at I Allegedly, finds himself responding to snowflakes that complain about his ‘get ready’ posts.
There’s good reason why the average are so ignorant.
For those who were actually listening in middle-school, the history books conveniently leave out the part where millions of Americans died of starvation during the Great Depression.
No pictures of emaciated bodies. Nothing.
With what’s coming, we’re likely headed for mass casualties in one form or another. The financial community refuses (from what I’ve seen) to discuss this up-coming event.
For example:
If you’re still using a ‘financial advisor’ and they’re not talking about, or don’t know about the elephant, do you really want to be (paying for and) taking direction from someone who’s that lazy, fearful, or ignorant?
Prechter, said it himself when he stated, the next mega bear market’s going to wipe out the ‘wealth management’ industry.
We may be on the cusp of that now.
Not Advice:
With that said, this site does not, and will not give financial advice.
Each person has his (her) own situation in life. You are the one to decide on your next direction or action.
What this site does do, is attempt to provide analysis and supporting price action data on what’s really going on.
What’s the market saying about itself?
If you’re still reading, that was a very long intro to get to our topic for the day: Gold miners, GDX.
Wyckoff Analysis: Senior Miners, GDX
What we see from the weekly chart is straightforward.
GDX, has been channeling lower for about a year:
The next chart shows we’ve penetrated support and are now testing the underside.
Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.
If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.
In my view, the participants in this sector are borderline delusional, if not completely insane.
They disregard what the market’s actually doing; holding to a (so far, for years now) unverified belief that ‘$10,000/oz gold, is just around the corner.’
It could very well be … but only after the (possibly, soon to be) starving stackers have sold off their hoard to buy food.
One has to wrap their mind around the fact, we’re being subjected to a long term diabolical plan.
Thinking and acting with that long game in mind (in my view) provides at least a hope for not only survival, but positioning to prosper during the on-going collapse.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
You would think with all the announcements about corporations (forcing) their employees to become ‘fully protected’, the biotech sector would be launching higher.
After all, that sector’s about to get a massive increase in revenue as the major players continue on with their ‘protection’ plan.
Looks like 1,400 non-compliant, undesirables have been dealt with.
Let’s do some math.
If that was 2% of the workforce, that means just for this employer alone, approximately 68,600 (subtracting 1,400 from 70,000) have now received a ‘bonus’ from the company.
If the scientific (real science) estimates are correct, the ‘elephant‘ will begin to kick in within six months and be fully effective (terminal) within five years.
This example is not the only one … Southwest Airlines just announced a similar push; fully ‘protected’ by the end of the year.
With all this good news, one would expect the biotech sector (SPBIO) to be launching higher in an unstoppable rally.
Um, no.
Let’s take a look at what’s really going on with the price action.
SPBIO (and 3X inverse, LABD):
We’re going to use the 3X inverse SPBIO fund LABD, for our analysis.
We’re about 30-minutes past the open and SPBIO, is heading lower with inverse LABD, moving higher:
We’re going to digress just a bit; updating on the ‘alternating’ action discussed in this update.
Price action above, is choppy and overlapping. That’s different from what we see now:
With all that being said, it’s possible LABD, has just confirmed the right side of a trend-line:
As a reminder, biotech (SPBIO) is the only major index that just finished three down quarters in a row.
If current action continues … it’s on track to make it four.
Wyckoff said it a century ago:
‘Somebody always knows something. That something, is reflected in the tape (price action)’.
The lies and reality don’t match. Biotech is losing steam … possibly in anticipation of an ‘event’ of some kind.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It seems that its been going on forever we’ve heard phrases like: ‘dollar destruction’, ‘gold’s going to $10,000,/oz’., ‘rampant inflation’, ‘hyperinflation’ and on.
It takes a very flexible mind (technically termed, “neural plasticity”) to be able to wrap itself around and understand the diabolical agenda being played out before us.
The good news is, Wyckoff analysis cuts through all the lies.
Now past a century old, this technique has stood the test of time.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With all the media press and hype, you would think bond yields have just spiked above 15%.
We have to remind ourselves that everything, that is, every move, every press release, every interview, is controlled.
Controlled for the purpose of “deception” as Livermore put it during an interview with Wyckoff in 1921.
With that in mind, who stands to benefit from the sharp move lower in bonds?
Seems like the obvious answer is, the short-term shorts and the longer-term bulls; especially if the hapless ‘hedge funds’ have jumped on the band wagon to short the market.
Bond (TLT) Analysis:
What Is The Market Saying About Itself?
The sharp move lower over the past four trading sessions, has likely cleared out the weak hands and emboldened the shorts to short some more.
The problem is (for the bears), we’re at a 50% retrace of the March 18th low. In addition, price action has just penetrated well known support.
That puts the bond market (TLT) in spring position.
We can see from today’s open, TLT is gap-higher and now, just below the support level.
We’re at the danger point, where the risk of going long is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
Because the four-day down-draft was so swift, don’t expect TLT to launch into an instant and sustained rally.
There may be quite a bit of testing (if and) before this market heads higher.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
