It’s possible, because price action is always the final arbiter.
Before the rest of the report, some housekeeping.
Real Estate IYR, has broken the down trend lines previously discussed.
A discretionary (not stop related) exit was performed on all positions at approximately DRV 46.45.
Trade DRV-22-02, is officially closed.
If the market turns around and looks like IYR is about to resume its downtrend, the DRV position could be re-established (not advice, not a recommendation).
As it stands, profit on the entire DRV-22-02, was in the vicinity of +19.2%.
That’s not too bad, considering the rest of the population is losing their shirts as reported here.
There were 25 DRV, transactions during the trade.
Where to Now?
Real estate can resume the downtrend, or it can test the underside of support, now resistance (shown below).
Under ‘normal’ market conditions, a test is typical behavior.
However, we’re in a financial collapse so anything is possible.
Real Estate IYR, Weekly
The chart above paints a familiar picture.
The overall trend is down. However, that does not mean price can’t go higher.
In fact, as we all know, the sharpest rallies occur in the middle of bear markets.
Whether we get one now, is unknown. Typical market behavior is to come back to the resistance area (black axis line) for a test.
Summary
From personal standpoint, I’ll take the near 20% gain (not advice, not a recommendation) and stand on the sidelines for a more definitive set-up.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Is the objective to create as many news stories (fake or not), along with incessant and contradicting market analysis with the objective: Shut down and distract even the most disciplined trading professional?
The market’s going up, it’s going to crash, it’s in a short squeeze, Goldman ‘says’, then ‘says not’ and on it goes.
If memory serves, the propaganda during the 2007 – 2008 meltdown, wasn’t nearly this bad. Of course, that was before the Smith-Mundt act was repealed … but I, digress.
There are even a few unfortunate dolts that don’t’ even know anything’s happening at all.
Take a look at Dan’s (i-Allegedly) latest video here.
He talks about the number of people contacting him to say ‘it’s not that bad’, or ‘real estate’s going much higher’, or ‘whatever’ as Dan likes to say.
He does present from the (ethical) sales professionals a recognition, real estate’s ‘finished’ for this go-round.
Even while we get reports like this one, where sentiment is so bad, a rally is imminent, the trading objective must be to remain focused on the data … price bars and volume.
That’s what we’re going to do as outlined below.
Real Estate IYR, Daily Chart
The un-marked chart.
Now, let’s get to the ‘force’ behind the rebound of the past four trading days.
The tiny blip circled, was all there was for upward energy from yesterday’s move.
Price action inched up just over 1%.
Looking at the situation from a trading channel standpoint, we see yesterday’s action got just outside the well-established trend lines.
So, we have a little ‘blip’ outside the trendline on minimal volume and force.
The news story linked above (repeated here) says a ‘short squeeze’ is imminent … at least for the tech stocks.
What about the rest of the market? Is real estate going to breakout as well?
That actual (IYR) data says, anything can happen; however, with such anemic upside performance, the expectation is for IYR, to resume its downward trend.
Positioning
It’s about forty-minutes before the open and we already have DRV, pre-market activity.
Because the (bid/ask) spreads are so wide in both IYR inverse funds SRS, and DRV, pre-market activity is rare.
Nonetheless, 3X inverse DRV, is trading higher at +0.79 points or +1.71%, indicating that IYR will have a lower open.
That means, the DRV low of yesterday (DRV 45.64) would make a good stop location for any positioning (not advice, not a recommendation).
Summary
Wyckoff analysis is independent of the news or the financials. He discovered as early as 1902, that prices are moving from a ‘force of their own’ having nothing to do with fundamentals.
The action itself will point to the next likely outcome.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Real estate’s in the … well, it’s in the outhouse; we’ll leave it at that.
Today was the day where IYR had the opportunity to build on any momentum gained over the last two trading sessions (Thursday, Friday).
Today, the index posted a new daily high within about fifteen minutes after the open.
Then, it spent the rest of the day trying to move higher.
Additional new highs weren’t happening; about a half-hour before the close, price action began to fall away.
That’s where we are now.
IYR Daily Close
The next chart makes the situation more clear.
There’s a Head & Shoulders top, a neckline, break of the neckline, test and reverse.
The fundamental pressures continue to build.
Interest rates remain elevated but even if they come down, it’s already in the works; buyers don’t qualify, layoffs are starting in earnest and it’s all unraveling … very, very fast.
This very same scenario has been played out in history; over and over, bubble after bubble.
We’re now in a multi-year, to multi-decade decline (if it ever recovers).
Measured Move
The chart above shows a measured move target in the area of 83.5, for IYR, providing that price action continues its decline.
The chart in the prior post, had a Fibonacci projection to the 80.5 area. So, the targets are similar.
Actually, this is what we want.
If we can use different analysis methods to come up with essentially the same target, it increases the probability of meeting that target (not advice, not a recommendation).
Positioning
The DRV position remains active; DRV-22-02.
If IYR posts a new daily high at tomorrow’s session, it points probabilities to either a protracted choppy test, or a rebound to higher levels; if either of those scenarios take place, the position will likely be exited.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If you’re blowing whatever’s left of your money (or credit), it’s likely you have no real marketable (high pay) skills, no talent, lazy, obese; so, we’re off to Vegas.
Add to that, we’rejust at the start of the depression.
Patera, from Appalachia’s Homestead (time stamp 4:24) addresses the problem a little differently but her final assessment is the same.
It’s true, there are some barriers to learning a new skill.
Dan from i-Allegedly points out the high cost to get a CDL, to be a trucker.
However, those who are awake, those with their nose in the KJV Bible, those leaving the corrupt church (in droves), knew that current events were coming; they took action way before it became obvious.
Yet another indicator of the current strange weather (warfare) that’s going to strain the system.
Here’s the link to the very first post that specifically referenced Genesis 41; posted on December 31, 2020.
As with the ‘Mask on, Mask off (linked above), how has the post aged?
Is it still relevant?
What about this quote … seemed extreme at the time.
They paid for the corn first, with gold and silver. Then they paid with their livestock. Then they paid by selling themselves into life-long slavery. We can equate that last part (slavery) as getting the vax.
No. 5
Chess Board Strategy
It’s a bitter pill to realize we’re in the long game. ‘Normal’, is not coming back … ever.
That does not mean there’re no opportunities. There are.
Those opportunities (if we survive) are/will be potentially life changing for the good.
The Sunday futures market opened about two hours ago and we’re up around +0.40%, in the S&P.
Let’s see if that spills over to the Monday open; remembering that we’re short the real estate sector with the finger on the sell trigger (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If one lives long enough, eventually you may reach the point where you’re tired of being played.
Once that happens, eyes are opened, you see the narrative clearly; that’s it’s everywhere.
Take this link for example … oh so many narratives.
Like defining ‘investor’ and ‘trader’; defining how each of those two behave in the markets.
The article surmises that investors think traders are not as smart as they because … well, investors have more letters after their names (CFA, CFP, CTA, and on … maybe even PhD … whooo).
Traders, well, they’re just circus monkeys and volatility junkies.
This narrative is beat into the collective conscious incessantly as far as can be remembered. It keeps the herd (investors, traders alike) firmly in the box.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The number of opinions forecasts, pontifications and gesticulations have reached levels beyond the absurd.
Everybody’s important and has some intellectual and/or philosophical missive to promulgate.
We have great levels of insight like the selected items below. As promised, these comments were taken from the article linked in the last post.
“I don’t need to pay some 78 year old to hold 1/2 my money in cash”
“What a joke. We’re heading for multi-year blow-off top”
“78 year old fund manager loses his azz … markets going nowhere but up”
“Parabolic increase to nosebleed levels and an epic explosion 3 years from now.”
Seems our idiot/lazy Boomers, Gen-X-rs, Millennials, Gen-Z-rs, and just about everybody else, is the genius in the room; except for the 78-year-old.
He’s just a buffoon.
If someone has no real skill, experience or initiative, they resort to trash-talk like we see above.
Getting the right experience is the hard part.
Having experience in the markets involves many years of education (i.e. losses).
Just for documentation’s sake, let’s take a look at two examples of what experience looks like; each in their own respective industries.
Exhibit A:
Go ahead, check out this Bubba from Amarillo, Texas.
His customers drive from neighboring states, hundreds, if not thousands of miles away to have him rebuild their transmissions.
Within the first 5-minutes of the video above, there’s probably 30-years of experience on display.
I would suspect his rebuilds go for top-dollar; rightly so.
Then, we have this:
Exhibit B:
Yesterday’s market action, and today’s, has happened before.
That is:
A sharp multi percentage point, headline grabbing spike higher (within a down market), that’s immediately reversed the very next day.
Not only that, but the reversal also signified a bear market had started in earnest.
S&P 500, SPY, Daily Chart
Let’s set the stage.
In our example, the S&P had already topped and reversed.
It spent the next seven months heading lower and then retracing upward to an eventual downside reversal.
The next leg down continued, but then a few days later, there’s a massive, headline grabbing, upward spike.
Is the bear market over?
Is this the signal to buy the dip like our ‘experts’ above think for the current situation?
The next day, price action reversed the entire gain (like it has done today).
The chart shows the result.
From a personal standpoint, a 78-year old that’s still mentally sharp enough to provide his services and is not an obvious (globalist) sell-out the likes of which are on CNBC, then I’m very keen on what he would have to say.
His message: It’s the biggest bear market of his life.
Secondly, as Dr. Elder has said, ‘Trading is an old man’s game’. A good memory is critical to creating an edge.
In our example, I remember that upward spike well.
It was a Thursday.
The next day, price action reversed hard to the downside.
It never looked back for nine months.
Summary:
Is the S&P scenario described above, where we are now?
History never repeats itself exactly.
However, one can propose with some level of confidence, if today was the kickoff to the next leg, it has potential to be the fastest, farthest down price action in market history (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
There were so many comments on the ZeroHedge article (linked here) about the musings of a 78-year-old money manager (effectively saying he’s an idiot … a dolt), we’re going to use those comments for reference on a go-forward basis.
Everybody has an opinion but nobody’s actually looking at what the market is saying about itself.
That’s where the answers will be found … no matter one’s personal bias.
Looking at real estate IYR, we see that price attempted to get above the axis line shown but did not make it.
Before we go further, a correction: The last post said the stop on DRV-22-02 was located at DRV 32.71.
The stop is actually located at DRV 37.21. Numbers got swapped.
Real Estate IYR, Daily
It’s interesting to note, ProLogis (PLD), the largest cap in the sector did not close higher for the session.
If IYR, with other indices do not have a decisive follow-through (stopping out DRV-22-02, in the process) at tomorrow’s session, the Ponzi scheme’s in serious trouble.
As already stated, events may happen faster than anyone expects.
Summary
We’ll leave off with this just out from ice-age-farmer; linked here.
The collapse of the entire food supply has been building (sorry, in the planning stages) for years.
It’s intentional.
Does anyone think that ‘raising rates into weakness’ is not also intentional?
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The previous bearish analysis was overwhelmed by the larger, upward trend.
Instead of continuing lower, real estate IYR, moved higher. It’s now at another inflection point.
The position in DRV (DRV-22-01) was exited at 32.66, when it was obvious the trade was going to fail.
Taking a hit like that gets one’s attention; there must be something else going on … something on a larger timeframe.
There’s nothing wrong, with being wrong.
However, there is something wrong with being wrong and staying wrong.
If we pull farther out to the longer, weekly timeframe, it looks like there’s danger ahead; possible new all-time highs and Wyckoff upthrust (potential reversal).
Real Estate IYR, Weekly
As with the Junior Miners, GDXJ, it looks like we have yet another Fibonacci time correlation.
During the financial crisis, IYR, posted its low the week of March 6th, 2009.
Thirteen years later, another major inflection point?
Shown below, is a terminating wedge that may have already completed a throw-over.
One probability suggesting new highs instead of a reversal at this point (which seems like even odds) is the repeating tendency of markets to go from ‘spring to up–thrust‘.
This site has presented over and again, it’s a common market behavior.
Getting closer-in on the weekly, the spring set-up is identified.
Now, comes the Fibonacci time correlation.
From the all-time highs, the market closed at the lows on Week 8. The print low came one week later.
Using that information and projecting forward, if this correlation is in effect, if it’s valid, we can expect an up-thrust high somewhere during the week of May 20th, to May 27th.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Every market has its own personality, its own characteristics.
After working the gold mining indices GDX, more specifically GDXJ, a repeating trendline tendency was observed in leveraged inverse, JDST.
That repeating market behavior, shown below.
Junior Miners, Leveraged Inverse, JDST
The un-marked daily chart, first
Repeating trendlines
The next several charts zoom-in on specific areas.
Set The Stop
And walk away …
As the tagline in this post shows with JDST-22-04, we’re already short the Junior Miners via JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).
The current stop, is set at yesterday’s low of 6.61.
Depending on price action today, that stop will be moved up to the recent low (presently @ JDST 6.855).
Summary
GDXJ, reversed at Fibonacci 55-Days, 13-Weeks from the January 28th, low.
As presented in this update, we’re also Fibonacci 89-Weeks (+1), peak-to-peak.
Time correlation coupled with price action, along with incessant financial press ‘gold standard‘ narrative, gives a near perfect backdrop for a significant downside reversal.
The trade may or may not work out … price action is the final arbiter. However, we’ve already shown the trend characteristic of the market.
A simple but effective way to manage the trade is to follow that trend, raise the stop accordingly and exit when stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 