Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
In fact, Wyckoff’s stock market training course, first published in 1934, (still available), says that until you can ignore the financial press completely, ‘You will never be successful in the markets’.
Price action itself, properly interpreted, will tell you where to look for the opportunity.
The Ponzi Implosion, Cometh
The market is littered with Ponzi schemes. Some have already imploded, CVNA, HOOD, Crypto; some have not.
Concerning Crypto, here’s an excellent update from Michael Cowan. Buried in that update, at time stamp 4:58, looks like HOOD, may be in even more trouble.
Biotech is in a class of its own and was discussed in yesterday’s update.
For gold, we’re going to look at the Junior Miners GDXJ, and last week’s action.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close
The Junior’s are the weakest in the sector; therefore, that’s where we look for a short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).
To move higher, above resistance, normal market behavior, is to come back to the lower blue line (i.e., support) to gain enough energy to move higher for a breakout.
To move lower, normal market behavior, is to come down to the lower blue line as a test which subsequently fails; the move continues lower.
Either way, normal behavior at this juncture, is to move lower. We’ll see.
Now on to the chief cook and bottle washer … Tesla.
Tesla (TSLA), At The Edge
For starters, let’s recognize there’re a lot of moving parts; U.S. ‘parts’ and China ‘parts’.
If one’s going short, another task is to forecast under what conditions a short would have enough risk removed.
For that answer, oddly enough, we go to gold, GLD.
Gold GLD, Weekly: 2015 – 2017
GLD posted a massive upthrust above the blue line lasting over fourteen weeks before breaking decisively lower.
Then, it labored four weeks to come back up for a test.
After that, collapse; lower weekly closes for seven consecutive weeks.
In the chart above, the area identified as ‘Short’, has as much upside risk removed as possible, right at resistance.
Now on to Tesla.
Tesla TLSA, Weekly
Two scenarios are presented where risk may be reduced.
Chart 1
Chart 2
One of these may happen or neither of them.
Either way, for risk to be reduced, a short entry is needed to be at a known resistance level (not advice, not a recommendation).
Let’s move on to the current positioning.
Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).
One of three events will happen at the next session.
1: Both positions stopped out
2: One position stopped out
3: No positions stopped out
Each outcome will provide a data-point where to focus (or not) in the current environment.
LABD-22-10:
Entry @ 18.1398: Stop @ 16.83
JDST-22-05
Entry @ 9.1666: Stop @ 8.79
Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The market itself is telling us it’s not going to be ‘well behaved’, possibly for years to come.
According to Goldman, link here, we’ve just had the largest short squeeze on record.
Friday, must have pushed it over the edge from the previously reported, ‘third largest‘.
The ‘Pontificators’
Everybody think’s they’ve got it figured out; We’re going to have stagflation, no wait, hyperinflation, no wait, inflation/deflation simultaneously, no wait, dollar collapse, no wait, gold to the moon, no wait, and on it goes.
What we really have, which is obvious to those ‘awake‘, is something that’s never happened before.
That ‘something‘ is here every day, multiple times a day.
Flash Crash, 2010
Every so often just as a reminder, this event is posted as an example; until that day, it never happened before either.
“Paper comes in, a big seller!!!”
‘Paper’ is essentially anyone (banks, hedge-funds, institutions, and/or retail) outside the pit. Those in the pit are called ‘locals’.
Positioned At The Extreme
The largest short squeeze in history has actually performed a public service; the markets are at extremes.
With that, the short position in Junior Miners GDXJ, has already been discussed, link here.
We’re going to move on and talk about the elephant; more specifically, biotech SPBIO.
Biotech SPBIO
The table shows last week’s action when compared to the week prior. All major sectors had solid gains but it’s the right-most column that’s of interest.
The right-side column shows how far price action closed above the prior week’s high.
Once again, biotech shows overall weakness. It gets more interesting when looking at the weekly chart.
Biotech SPBIO, Weekly
It’s been three successive weeks of apparent up-thrust reversals that were negated each time.
Looking at the weekly below, what we have, is a huge bear flag that just so happens to be, Fibonacci 8-Weeks wide.
It’s possible, this congestion area is the mid-point of the overall move from the highs set during the week of February, 2021.
Compressing the chart and putting in a measured move target gives us the following.
If we have an actual Head & Shoulders top, that target is shown as well.
Either way, the downside potential is enormous; thus, requiring intense focus from a Wyckoff standpoint, i.e., during a bear market, identify the weakest sector for short opportunities (not advice, not a recommendation).
All of which brings us to positioning.
Positioning
On Friday, a discretionary exit was made from the entire LABD-22-09 position as (LABD) price action continued to decline with no end in sight.
Loss on the LABD-22-09, series was a drubbing of -12.2%
Then again, last week was the largest squeeze in history; taking that into account, the loss wasn’t -30% or -50%.
As the trading day progressed, LABD price action continued lower until low-and-behold, it reversed.
Once again, a position was entered (not advice, not a recommendation) but this time was different. Frist off, initial position size is smaller; about 60% smaller.
Secondly, the stop is an actual order that’s in the market (shown below).
Sounds obvious but we’re dealing with unprecedented times and market disruptions. Recall during the Flash-Crash of 2010, Kimberly Clark, or Colgate (if memory serves) went ‘no-bid’ and printed i.e., sold for 0.01.
That low print remained on the charts for years until it was ultimately removed.
If it can happen on the downside (i.e. when long), it can happen on the upside as well (when short).
Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).
LABD-22-10***:
Entry @ 18.1398***: Stop @ 16.83***
JDST-22-05***
Entry @ 9.1666***: Stop @ 8.79***
Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The day after the third largest short squeeze in market history, we have marginal new daily highs.
Gold was one of the markets that made news this week with it ‘leaving the station’. 🙂
Let’s take a look at gold (GLD) and how I used its message to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).
Gold (GLD) Daily
First, we’re going to re-print the original analysis below from November 4th.
And now, the result
We’re right at the edge. Any higher and it could be bona fide breakout.
The miners rallied in kind.
Senior Miners, GDX, is in an up-thrust of its own (not shown) along with the Juniors GDXJ; being a weaker sector it’s extended but not able to push as high as GDX.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
Note the black line and arrow.
Seniors, GDX, was able to penetrate this area on its own chart but GDXJ, has not (so far).
This gives us an extra layer of resistance for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).
We can add to that as noted, it was the third largest squeeze in history and today was slightly higher … so what else is there? Risk has (nearly) been squeezed out.
About an hour after the open, a short was opened using GDXJ leveraged inverse fund JDST; JDST-22-05.
Position details and stop locations are to be provided in the next update.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
When looking at biotech sector (SPBIO) on a close basis, today’s action stopped just short of making a new closing high since the up-thrust (reversal) of October 28th.
Effectively, it’s a test of that reversal.
On to the analysis.
SPBIO, Daily Close
We’re going to put the chart below with no mark-up; then invert to show the potential trade set-up.
SPBIO, Daily Close, Inverted
Now, we’re inverted and marked to show penetration below support and then, today’s test.
The zoom gets closer-in.
The market is stretched, no doubt.
In a way, it’s a good thing. Either the test will hold and SPBIO, will decline from here (in earnest) or there’s something else going on and we’ll exit to look for another trade (not advice, not a recommendation).
Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).
LABD-22-09:
As stated, in the prior update, LABD-22-09, position size was reduced during the session by about 10%.
Special Note:
This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It looks bad for being short biotech and maybe it is.
However, as we’ll see below, the leveraged inverse fund LABD, could be completing its reversal set-up.
While today’s thrust higher in the overall markets was not unexpected (shown here and here), one should take note of the violence.
As of this post, from yesterday’s low to today’s high, the Dow has moved over 1,000-pts.
It’s what happens next that’s important.
Weak shorts are probably terrified, have covered, now wondering what went wrong.
So, let’s take a look at the short position on biotech SPBIO, and see if it really is ‘wrong’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, Daily
What we can see (above) is that LABD, is following the Wyckoff Schematic near exact for a spring set-up.
It’s just that today’s move is especially sharp and so one would think the set-up has failed … not so fast.
Another reason to think we’re completing a test of the spring, is below. Today is Fibonacci Day 34, from the high (low on SPBIO), set on September 26th.
We also have a potential trading channel as well.
As this post is being created, LABD is hovering at its lows; currently (as of 1:30 p.m., EST) trading at 19.89
Summary
Yesterday was an important day but it was not obvious, and not (yet) directly related to the markets.
A report was released on ZeroHedge (link here) which essentially confirms what some of us in the proletariat have known for years … if not decades.
It’s now out in the mainstream.
How long before the ‘elephant’ makes its way there also?
If indeed we’re at a reversal test of biotech and if that test passes (SPBIO downside continues), the move has the potential to be historic.
Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).
LABD-22-09:
Price action blew through the stop located at 20.21 and is now hovering at those levels. The LABD position is being maintained but will likely be reduced in size as we head into the close (not advice, not a recommendation).
Special Note:
This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
That first link even shows how far GLD, is likely to go, which at this point, is just ticks away.
Gold GLD, Daily
We’ll start first with the original forecast.
And the result (as of 1:20 p.m., EST).
We can see price action nearing the up-thrust (reversal) location.
Note: Penetration to the upside above resistance, does not necessarily mean it’s a short opportunity.
Any opportunity will be determined by price action itself.
Summary
Wyckoff analysis not only can provide potentials for price movement; when that move happens, it can also be a stabilizing factor so that one is not caught up in the usual media hysteria.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, biotech sector (SPBIO) is still on track (ever so slowly) for a potential sustained move to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).
LABD-22-09:
Special Note:
This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
There’re a lot of moving parts to biotech and it’s like a game of chicken.
Is there going to be another ‘planned’ event pulled out of the bag that requires ‘protection’ or will this side (and this one) win-out before that happens?
Price action’s always the final arbiter and right now, it’s positing lower.
Gold:
Gold (GLD) ‘blipped’ higher on Friday and the usual suspects are out touting the hyperinflation narrative.
Owning (some) precious metals seems to be a good thing.
However, the public constantly knee-jerks into this sector and is absolutely rabid in their behavior (i.e., silver stockpiles are running out!!!).
It suggests at least, there’s something else afoot.
Prechter published in the early 2000’s, Central Banks, are followers, not leaders. The fact they are buying gold at this point, may be a contrary indicator.
Talk about going against the herd. 🙂
Over and again, it’s the boring (does not generate ‘clicks’) food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).
Real Estate:
What can be said?
It’s the largest manufactured bubble in world history and it has already popped.
Thinking it’s all going to sort itself out in a year or two is delusional. We’ve probably got decades of bear market.
Tesla:
Anyone with an anode of research capability, knows the whole EV premise, is based on a falsehood.
However, that fact is probably not what’s going to bring Tesla (and the rest of the market) down.
Let’s stop for a moment and consider the above link which has been available for nearly four-years.
How many views? Just 9,824 (as of this post)
That equates to only 0.003% of the U.S. population.
As the global supply chains implode, getting parts and having stable infrastructure (i.e., electricity) will probably be the defining factor.
Now, on to the charts.
Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close
The following sessions will let us know if we’re at the right edge of the downtrend line.
We’ve already had an up-thrust reversal and a test of that reversal. last Friday was lower … probabilities point down.
Gold GLD, Daily
Looking at the chart on the strategic, longer term, Friday’s blip is hardly noticeable. We’ve already presented how this could be a minor up-thrust (reversal) in itself.
To keep the upside intact, price action must remain and continue above current levels.
Real Estate IYR, Daily
Real estate may be working its way into an up-thrust condition. As shown, Fibonacci Day 21 from the October 13th, low is this coming Thursday, the 10th.
According to the Economic Calendar there are several potential catalysts that may push the price above resistance (temporarily).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 