Can It Get Any More Dangerous ?

Testing The Reversals

First, some housekeeping.

This morning’s action in biotech SPBIO, forced exit of LABD-22-12, with a minimal loss of -0.12% (not advice, not a recommendation)

There was a bounce off SPBIO, resistance in the early session and then, it became clear the market was setting up to penetrate that resistance.

As the Fed announcement progressed, SPBIO, indeed moved up sharply.

Reversal Set-Up

By definition, such action puts SPBIO, in a test of a prior Up-Thrust (reversal) from 11/11/22 – 11/15/22.

Conversely, it puts the leveraged inverse fund LABD, in a test of a Spring set-up during the same period.

You can already see where this is going.

The work has been done on a fundamental basis as well as technical; biotech is set for significant downside.

Whether or not, we’re at that inflection point right now, is unknown.

Biotech 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

Looking at the mark-up below, we’ve had a spring set-up; then, sign of demand with action moving higher and finally today, a test of that spring set-up.

David Weis used to call such drastic moves a ‘gut-check’, to see if you can hang on (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action has come right back to support with a wide bar and high volume.

Such bars increase the probability of a counter move to test which in this case, is a move higher.

Summary

Remember, all this action’s occurring ‘within’, the SPBIO, bear flag that’s formed over two-plus months.

It seems like a huge understatement to say this market and the main indices, are in a dangerous position.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

Like a Terrier on a Mailman’s leg, we’re not giving up on biotech’s potential downside … at least not yet.

Short position in SPBIO via LABD; details are as follows:

LABD-22-13***:

Entry @ 18.72***: Stop @ TBD***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pandora & Twitter, The Box Opens

Fuel, For The Downside

With Twitter’s lifting of the ban on truth, linked here, we may be entering the next phase of collapse.

Whether or not it’s going to immediately show up in market price action, is unknown at this point.

Nascent Reversal?

The last update identified the markets were poised for potential reversal.

Two days later and we’re mostly down; that’s in spite of the supposed positive ‘machine’ bias as presented at this link.

A positive machine-market could still happen (data released tomorrow) but for now, price action itself, is posting lower; this is the crux of Wyckoff analysis … ‘What is the market saying about itself’.

In line with the truth being let out, not surprisingly, chief cook and bottle washer, biotech, is having a rough time.

Biotech Bear Market

Prior posts have documented the bear flag that’s been forming for over nine-weeks. Now, we have an apparent coiled action, ready for the downside.

Since we’re short this sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), we’re going to look at LABD, to identify the potential.

SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse, LABD

We have three charts, all depicting daily action.

The first (un-marked) chart is close-in and it looks like a mess. That is, until you put in trend lines and a Fibonacci count as shown on the second chart.

Adding the mark-up.

Then, keeping those trend lines intact, pulling farther out, we see the potential if there’s a sustained move.

Price action has been trading in a tight range over the past eight-days. Let’s see what happens next.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

Short position in SPBIO via LABD; details are as follows:

LABD-22-12:

Entry @ 19.9194, 20.91***: Stop @ 19.28***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Market, Signals Trouble

It’s Not About The Fed

The potential for a sustainable bond reversal was identified way back in mid-October.

Now, over a month later with bonds moving decisively higher, the ‘narratives‘ are out in force.

Those narratives revolve around ‘pivot me this, or ‘pivot me that‘, or an infinite number of the same variations.

The reality is, there’s not going to be any ‘pivot’.

Even if there was, as Michael Cowan reported weeks ago, the market keeps crashing anyway (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that in mind, a popular narrative is that bonds are higher because the Fed will lower rates when they see we’re in a ‘recession’.

Well, they won’t ever see a recession because we’ve skipped that part; going straight to collapse and economic depression. 🙂

Of course, as Jerimiah Babe puts it, Americans won’t do a thing to get ready until the last minute … most likely after the market is down 50%, or more.

Instead of the placating, proletariat calming narrative, it’s a recession; maybe bonds are moving in response to those in the know … something much worse may be ahead.

Could bonds be signaling, we’re close to a market rout?

Bonds, TLT, Weekly

We’re going to start with the original analysis, showing the potential for a sustained reversal.

From the October 16th, post.

A month or so, later.

As with the dollar analysis from years ago, a weekly bullish divergence as we see here, may result in a rally that lasts longer and goes farther than anyone expects.

Of course, the real question is ‘what does it mean?’

As Wyckoff said over a century ago, we won’t know the full reason for a move until it’s over.

One view of it however, different from the accepted narrative, we could be headed for some kind of disconnect; those in the know are shifting to ‘relative’ stability.

Moving on to other markets, we have the following:

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

The push higher in biotech SPBIO, discussed in the prior update did not materialize.

Instead, we got a new daily low, followed by some upward testing action.

A day-trade in LABD was opened and closed; then near the market close, opened again.

Details are as follows

LABD-22-12:

Entry @ 19.9134***: Stop @ 19.10***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Set For ‘Implosion’ … Biotech

IBB & SPBIO, at The Danger Point®

Each one in their own way, as we’ll see below.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, we’ve identified one of, if not the sector(s) most likely to decline the farthest and fastest in a bear market.

Without question, biotech contains the overriding ‘elephant’ that’s literally affecting everything else on the planet (not advice, not a recommendation).

As stated in the tag-line above, the two indices in question are IBB (large cap) and SPBIO (small cap).

IBB, has Amgen, Gilead and Vertex, as the top three while SPBIO, has more speculative (i.e., losing more money) Beam, Twist and Fate.

Index IBB has $342.8-Bil, combined for the top three while SPBIO has only $6.5-Bil, combined.

So, it makes sense the more speculative ‘cash burning inferno‘ TWST, is in the SPBIO. 🙂

On to the charts

IBB Weekly

IBB has formed a decisive resistance area as shown.

The fourth attempt which pushed above the prior three levels (and retraced), puts IBB, at The Danger Point®

Next up is the SPBIO.

It’s much weaker and thus the focus for any short opportunities (not advice, not a recommendation).

SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Weekly

While IBB, has moved higher, to an up-thrust over the past nine weeks, SPBIO during that time, has languished.

Note: The chart scales are identical. Scrolling up and down, one can visually see the weakness of SPBIO.

SPBIO, also reached all-time highs, six months before IBB.

Getting Closer-In: SPBIO

We’re going to look at the hourly chart.

SPBIO, Hourly

Those who are long-time visitors to this site will instantly recognize the set-up: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust

This Friday, tomorrow, is a shortened trading day.

There’s a potential we’ll have a small blip higher into the up-thrust zone.

Conversely, for 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, the potential is for a temporary move lower.

Leveraged Inverse LABD, Hourly

This is how it looks for LABD.

Note for the inverse fund, the ‘spring’ on SPBIO, becomes the ‘up-thrust’ on LABD.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation

Wednesday’s downside action in LABD, resulted in the LABD-22-10, position being stopped out with an overall gain around 7.12%.

There have already been several disruptions to the company’s trading platform and data line over the past month and we’ve not even got started with market chaos.

Recall that just recently, the Canadian market went off-line for several hours. We should consider these events the ‘norm’, on a go-forward basis.

As a result, a standing order (in the market) is in place to go long LABD (short SPBIO) at the execution price of LABD @ 18.62.

That order may or may not be modified as we go into the open tomorrow morning.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

December Crash of 1899

123-Year Anniversary, Coming Up

It’s happened, before …

Even so, unless you knew it (and the exact date), finding information is difficult to near impossible.

A once free access to the New York Times article from December 19th, 1899, is now subscription based, link here.

Another link here, shows that December 19th, is not available for browsing.

Going to the site-map for that date, the crash is not at the top as one would expect.

It’s much farther down, buried in the list.

‘The worst day-panic, The Street has ever known’

Of course, in the NYT article, J.P. Morgan himself, is ‘credited’ with saving the market from further decline.

You have to laugh.

It’s just like an Arizona mid-term election. 🙂

Lastly, using the way-back machine, here’s an article from the Seattle Times, written in December 1999. It compares the situation (then) to a century earlier.

On Track For Another?

Obviously, that can’t be known until if/when, it happens.

However, we can look at the most watched market, the S&P, and see what it says.

S&P 500, SPY, Daily

We’re leaving in the moving averages to show, at least from the 200-Day perspective, the downtrend is still intact.

Other items to note:

The market is still sub-dividing lower, lower highs, lower lows. Price action’s retraced to a Fibonacci 38% (shown below), and is also in Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) position.

We’ll get closer-in with the details.

Moving averages have been removed for clarity.

The blue line is the resistance and up-thrust area. Price action clearly above and apparently, hesitating.

Dashed grey line is the Fibonacci 38% retrace from all-time highs (1/4/22), to the most recent lows set on 10/13/22.

Zooming back out, is the scariest part of this chart.

There’s no doubt; we’ve had at least two repeating trendlines. A third could make it a trading channel.

Summary

As of this post (11:28 a.m., EST), SPY has yet to post a new daily low (below SPY, 394.49). If or when it does, that’s just one more addition to the bearish scenario.

Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).

The focus is on biotech; uniquely positioned as the weakest of all the major indices (not advice, not a recommendation).

LABD-22-10:

Entry @ 18.1398, 17.565, 17.65, 18.1594***: Stop @ 16.29***

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Dominos Fall …

Cash Crunch, Layoffs & Bankruptcy

So, here we are.

Crypto FTX implodes, Amazon to lay-off 10,000, Health system(s) in cash crunch, solar farm Toucan Energy, goes bankrupt.

But wait, it gets better; Pfizer and Moderna, are going to investigate themselves.

All of this, just within the past few days.

At this point, it should be clear to all paying attention, we’re accelerating to the downside … at least in economic terms.

Market Disconnect

Yet, the markets appear to never-mind … going about their (manipulated) business as if nothing’s happening.

Walmart has even announced they are going to buy-back their own stock to the tune of $20-Billion.

Maybe, they’ll do it. Maybe, they won’t.

They fully admit (in the press release), the buy-back announcement, was to make sure the earnings report was ‘well received’.

The Next ‘Shoe’

Those of us ‘awake’, are collectively attempting to plan and position for the next shoe to drop.

We’ve got the usual suspects such as real estate and biotech; however, this link to The Burning Platform, could provide more potential catalysts.

Either way, disconnected market or not, one has the feeling it’s just a matter of time.

Life After The ‘Short Squeeze’

‘The shorts were carried out on stretchers’.

Well, yes and no.

As said in this update, the historic short-squeeze, while damaging to account P/L, was a huge public service.

This chart confirms the majority of short-positions have evaporated. Meaning, the potential fuel for relentless upside (from those shorts), is no longer there.

That fact is being mirrored in price action as we speak.

As covered above, two markets are hanging by a thread: biotech and real estate.

Both are bubbles on a world-wide scale, but biotech is the one that may affect all others.

Biotech SPBIO, Inverse LABD

As this post was being created, biotech leveraged inverse fund LABD, has just printed (as of 12:40 p.m., EST) outside-up; also known as a ‘key reversal’.

The daily chart is below.

LABD, Daily

To make it an official outside up, price action will need to close above yesterday’s close (LABD: 17.87).

We’ve already shown that SPBIO, price action has formed a huge bear flag lasting more than eight weeks.

Action from the past three days can be considered a Wyckoff up-thrust as well.

Now, we have a potential key reversal.

If so, this market may be in serious downside trouble.

Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).

Yesterday, JDST-22-05, was exited at 9.0341, with a loss of – 1.45%, so that focus (and capital) could be directed to biotech, SPBIO and inverse LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

LABD-22-10:

Entry @ 18.1398, 17.565***, 17.65***: Stop @ 16.29***

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Largest ‘Squeeze’, Ever

A Market Of Extremes

So, this is how it’s going to be.

The market itself is telling us it’s not going to be ‘well behaved’, possibly for years to come.

According to Goldman, link here, we’ve just had the largest short squeeze on record.

Friday, must have pushed it over the edge from the previously reported, ‘third largest‘.

The ‘Pontificators’

Everybody think’s they’ve got it figured out; We’re going to have stagflation, no wait, hyperinflation, no wait, inflation/deflation simultaneously, no wait, dollar collapse, no wait, gold to the moon, no wait, and on it goes.

What we really have, which is obvious to those ‘awake‘, is something that’s never happened before.

That ‘something‘ is here every day, multiple times a day.

Flash Crash, 2010

Every so often just as a reminder, this event is posted as an example; until that day, it never happened before either.

“Paper comes in, a big seller!!!”

 ‘Paper’ is essentially anyone (banks, hedge-funds, institutions, and/or retail) outside the pit.  Those in the pit are called ‘locals’.

Positioned At The Extreme

The largest short squeeze in history has actually performed a public service; the markets are at extremes.

With that, the short position in Junior Miners GDXJ, has already been discussed, link here.

We’re going to move on and talk about the elephant; more specifically, biotech SPBIO.

Biotech SPBIO

The table shows last week’s action when compared to the week prior. All major sectors had solid gains but it’s the right-most column that’s of interest.

The right-side column shows how far price action closed above the prior week’s high.

Once again, biotech shows overall weakness. It gets more interesting when looking at the weekly chart.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

It’s been three successive weeks of apparent up-thrust reversals that were negated each time.

Looking at the weekly below, what we have, is a huge bear flag that just so happens to be, Fibonacci 8-Weeks wide.

It’s possible, this congestion area is the mid-point of the overall move from the highs set during the week of February, 2021.

Compressing the chart and putting in a measured move target gives us the following.

If we have an actual Head & Shoulders top, that target is shown as well.

Either way, the downside potential is enormous; thus, requiring intense focus from a Wyckoff standpoint, i.e., during a bear market, identify the weakest sector for short opportunities (not advice, not a recommendation).

All of which brings us to positioning.

Positioning

On Friday, a discretionary exit was made from the entire LABD-22-09 position as (LABD) price action continued to decline with no end in sight.

Loss on the LABD-22-09, series was a drubbing of -12.2%

Then again, last week was the largest squeeze in history; taking that into account, the loss wasn’t -30% or -50%.

As the trading day progressed, LABD price action continued lower until low-and-behold, it reversed.

Once again, a position was entered (not advice, not a recommendation) but this time was different. Frist off, initial position size is smaller; about 60% smaller.

Secondly, the stop is an actual order that’s in the market (shown below).

Sounds obvious but we’re dealing with unprecedented times and market disruptions. Recall during the Flash-Crash of 2010, Kimberly Clark, or Colgate (if memory serves) went ‘no-bid’ and printed i.e., sold for 0.01.

That low print remained on the charts for years until it was ultimately removed.

If it can happen on the downside (i.e. when long), it can happen on the upside as well (when short).

Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-10***:

Entry @ 18.1398***: Stop @ 16.83***

JDST-22-05***

Entry @ 9.1666***: Stop @ 8.79***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Short Squeeze … 3rd Largest, Ever

Is It Over?

ZeroHedge reports, the third largest ever.

So, is it over?

Starting tomorrow, we’re about to find out.

When looking at biotech sector (SPBIO) on a close basis, today’s action stopped just short of making a new closing high since the up-thrust (reversal) of October 28th.

Effectively, it’s a test of that reversal.

On to the analysis.

SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re going to put the chart below with no mark-up; then invert to show the potential trade set-up.

SPBIO, Daily Close, Inverted

Now, we’re inverted and marked to show penetration below support and then, today’s test.

The zoom gets closer-in.

The market is stretched, no doubt.

In a way, it’s a good thing. Either the test will hold and SPBIO, will decline from here (in earnest) or there’s something else going on and we’ll exit to look for another trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

As stated, in the prior update, LABD-22-09, position size was reduced during the session by about 10%.

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65, 22.16, 22.75 Stop @ TBD***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Biotech (Short) Test

Proverbial ‘Gut-Check’

It looks bad for being short biotech and maybe it is.

However, as we’ll see below, the leveraged inverse fund LABD, could be completing its reversal set-up.

While today’s thrust higher in the overall markets was not unexpected (shown here and here), one should take note of the violence.

As of this post, from yesterday’s low to today’s high, the Dow has moved over 1,000-pts.

It’s what happens next that’s important.

Weak shorts are probably terrified, have covered, now wondering what went wrong.

So, let’s take a look at the short position on biotech SPBIO, and see if it really is ‘wrong’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, Daily

What we can see (above) is that LABD, is following the Wyckoff Schematic near exact for a spring set-up.

It’s just that today’s move is especially sharp and so one would think the set-up has failed … not so fast.

Another reason to think we’re completing a test of the spring, is below. Today is Fibonacci Day 34, from the high (low on SPBIO), set on September 26th.

We also have a potential trading channel as well.

As this post is being created, LABD is hovering at its lows; currently (as of 1:30 p.m., EST) trading at 19.89

Summary

Yesterday was an important day but it was not obvious, and not (yet) directly related to the markets.

A report was released on ZeroHedge (link here) which essentially confirms what some of us in the proletariat have known for years … if not decades.

It’s now out in the mainstream.

How long before the ‘elephant’ makes its way there also?

If indeed we’re at a reversal test of biotech and if that test passes (SPBIO downside continues), the move has the potential to be historic.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Price action blew through the stop located at 20.21 and is now hovering at those levels. The LABD position is being maintained but will likely be reduced in size as we head into the close (not advice, not a recommendation).

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65, 22.16, 22.75 Stop @ 20.21

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Leaves The Station … Again

How Many Times?

How many times does gold need to ‘leave the station‘, before it’s actually left?

That’s probably a better question to ask rather than freaking out every time there’s a blip higher.

Was the recent ‘blip’ tradeable? Yes.

Is the move sustainable to the upside … probably not but only price action will tell.

Did Wyckoff analysis give advance notice that gold (GLD), could move higher?

Yes, it did … link here and here.

That first link even shows how far GLD, is likely to go, which at this point, is just ticks away.

Gold GLD, Daily

We’ll start first with the original forecast.

And the result (as of 1:20 p.m., EST).

We can see price action nearing the up-thrust (reversal) location.

Note: Penetration to the upside above resistance, does not necessarily mean it’s a short opportunity.

Any opportunity will be determined by price action itself.

Summary

Wyckoff analysis not only can provide potentials for price movement; when that move happens, it can also be a stabilizing factor so that one is not caught up in the usual media hysteria.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, biotech sector (SPBIO) is still on track (ever so slowly) for a potential sustained move to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65, 22.16, 22.75*** Stop @ 20.21

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279