Category Archives: $SPSIBI

The Market Set-Up … This Week

November 6, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Food Supply, GDX, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Green Energy, ice-age-farmer, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, Prechter, QQQ, Real Estate, Russell 2000, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Speck, TSLA, XLF, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

What To Watch … Biotech, Gold, Real Estate, Tesla

Biotech:

There’re a lot of moving parts to biotech and it’s like a game of chicken.

Is there going to be another ‘planned’ event pulled out of the bag that requires ‘protection’ or will this side (and this one) win-out before that happens?

Price action’s always the final arbiter and right now, it’s positing lower.

Gold:

Gold (GLD) ‘blipped’ higher on Friday and the usual suspects are out touting the hyperinflation narrative.

Owning (some) precious metals seems to be a good thing.

However, the public constantly knee-jerks into this sector and is absolutely rabid in their behavior (i.e., silver stockpiles are running out!!!).

It suggests at least, there’s something else afoot.

Prechter published in the early 2000’s, Central Banks, are followers, not leaders. The fact they are buying gold at this point, may be a contrary indicator.

Talk about going against the herd. 🙂

Over and again, it’s the boring (does not generate ‘clicks’) food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate:

What can be said?

It’s the largest manufactured bubble in world history and it has already popped.

Thinking it’s all going to sort itself out in a year or two is delusional. We’ve probably got decades of bear market.

Tesla:

Anyone with an anode of research capability, knows the whole EV premise, is based on a falsehood.

However, that fact is probably not what’s going to bring Tesla (and the rest of the market) down.

Let’s stop for a moment and consider the above link which has been available for nearly four-years.

How many views? Just 9,824 (as of this post)

That equates to only 0.003% of the U.S. population.

As the global supply chains implode, getting parts and having stable infrastructure (i.e., electricity) will probably be the defining factor.

Now, on to the charts.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

The following sessions will let us know if we’re at the right edge of the downtrend line.

We’ve already had an up-thrust reversal and a test of that reversal. last Friday was lower … probabilities point down.

Gold GLD, Daily

Looking at the chart on the strategic, longer term, Friday’s blip is hardly noticeable. We’ve already presented how this could be a minor up-thrust (reversal) in itself.

To keep the upside intact, price action must remain and continue above current levels.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Real estate may be working its way into an up-thrust condition. As shown, Fibonacci Day 21 from the October 13th, low is this coming Thursday, the 10th.

According to the Economic Calendar there are several potential catalysts that may push the price above resistance (temporarily).

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

The short-term look has been presented here.

Longer term downside potential is disconcerting.

Major support near the 25-level.

Summary

When we look at last Friday’s action (table below), it’s clear SPBIO, was not part of the upside party.

Of course, we won’t know if it’s’ the downside leader until subsequent sessions.

In the meantime, the market positioning remains unchanged.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65 Stop @ 19.41

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Relentless, Collapse …

November 3, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, SPBIO, The Speck, TMF, TMF-22-01 1 Comment

Jerrimiah Babe, Calls It

In probably his best video update since he stared in early 2015, he lays out the details of what’s ahead.

Although not well versed in the markets (and he says so), he has enough experience, life-knowledge, to understand the current potential and likely outcome.

That is, ‘relentless collapse’.

Those of us who have been getting ready for years, know that we still aren’t ready. How can anyone be fully ready for a complete systems breakdown.

One ‘system’ that’s set for implosion and has been since before ‘The Speck’, is biotech.

Biotech: Cue The Implosion

It’s been an on again, off again, back on, and so on, with this index (SPBIO).

Every day now, sometimes multiple times a day, we see the effects of their ‘protection’. Wheels are in motion and we’re most likely just getting started … for decades to come.

Yesterday’s Fed announcement, may have (finally) provided the up-thrust and reversal needed to get this index in a sustained down move.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

The daily chart shows the up-thrust test and reversal.

We’ll get into downside potential(s) in an upcoming post.

For now, the positioning remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 7.166, Stop @ 6.77

LABD-22-09:

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, Stop @ 18.69

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal Bellwether

November 1, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01, ZeroHedge

Is The ‘Collapse’ Back In Play?

When the market does not respond as expected, that means something else is happening.

Such may be the case for bonds.

Yesterday, we got this announcement during market hours.

Of course, the already hammered bond market (TLT), got hammed some more.

It’s what happened next, and what’s happening today, that’s important.

That is, the sell-off was quickly reversed (to the upside) with that upside continuing this session.

The bond supply is being absorbed.

So, what does that mean?

It’s possible, the bounce, melt-up, squeeze or whatever one wants to call it could be over. There may already be a ‘flight to safety’ if there’s such a thing these days.

But let’s not hypothesize on what could be happening. The market itself (price action), tells us.

Bonds TLT, Daily

At about mid-session, this is where we are.

We’re right at the downtrend line.

The attempt to mover lower (yesterday), has been rejected.

As a result of today’s new daily high, the stop on position TMF-22-01, has been moved up (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, we’re now between the downtrend and the ‘rejection’; something’s likely to break.

Summary

The S&P (SPY) just posted an up-thrust reversal early this session and is still moving lower as of this post.

Keep in mind, all of this is happening before any Fed announcement … as if the market has already decided.

A quick note on biotech, SPBIO.

Position size has been increased in SPBIO, leveraged inverse LABD, as shown below (not advice, not a recommendation).

This sector remains at The Danger Point®

If the bounce really is over, biotech is likely to get hit the hardest.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 7.166, Stop @ 6.77***

***, Indicates change

LABD-22-09***

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71***, Stop @ 18.69***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close …

October 31, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, GLD, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01

Bonds, Gold, Biotech

Bonds:

Instead of upside follow-through, we had downside test and reversal.

Gold:

GLD, closes lower and is now down seven consecutive months … a record for the tracking ETF.

Biotech

Index SPBIO, has been attempting to move higher, with it posting into an up-thrust last week.

Today it couldn’t hold the upside; now looking like a nascent reversal.

Note: Position changes at the bottom of this update.

The test and reversal in bonds (TLT) is obvious and there’s no open position in GLD.

So, we’ll focus on biotech.

Biotech ($SPSIBI, SPBIO) Daily

The zoom area of the chart shows price action just can’t seem to get above resistance (blue line).

Successive attempts were made throughout today’s session to go higher, but it didn’t happen.

Getting in closer on the hourly chart, we see the apparent upside failure during the last hour of trading.

Biotech SPBIO, Hourly

There is no doubt where at The Danger Point®

Right about mid-session, a short position was opened via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) as LABD-22-09.

Summary

Today’s expectation for bonds was a follow-through to the upside … it didn’t happen.

In response, the initial TMF-22-01, position was closed with the secondary remaining open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, biotech SPBIO, was having its own problems; that is, being in up-thrust condition and not being able to make a new daily high. i.e., The Danger Point®

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 6.705, 7.166, Stop @ 6.68

Partial Exit @ 7.053***

***, Indicates change

LABD-22-09***

Entry @ 19.88***, Stop @ 18.94***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Eye Of The Needle … Biotech

October 19, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-08, Positions, SPBIO

Threading It Close


One more subdivision.

After the last post, was released, looking at the after-hours action, there was one more possibility for SPBIO, to subdivide (higher) and still be in an overall downtrend.

It was the skinniest of margins, the eye of the needle but that’s what we got with yesterday’s price action.

While the rest of the market remains hypnotically fixated on bull or bear and who’s right, one is reminded of the old Ned Davis, trading adage; ‘Do you want to be right, or do you want to make money?’

The tape is always right.

Yesterday, biotech SPBIO, made one last subdivision to the only level it could go while still remaining in a downtrend.

Follow The Rules … Break The Rules

That title is borrowed from the interview with Ed Seykota in the book Market Wizards.

Late Monday night, looking at the after-hours, it was obvious price action might blow through the LABD stop at the next session.

With that in mind, a forecast of price action was drawn on the hourly chart of LABD.

That forecast (drawn on the broker’s platform) showed the conditions under which the rules would be broken, the position held, and the stop temporarily ignored.

Replicated on the Worden Brothers, platform (below), is a representation of that forecast.

SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD, Hourly

Wednesday (today) Early Session

Judge for yourself. We’re interested in the form of the action and not necessarily the time required.

It was thought the reversal would be complete in a day; looks like it’s a day and an extra 30-minutes. 🙂

The Challenge

To those seriously addressing (working) the markets; Challenge yourself to draw the ‘excepted action’ of the market before and after taking a position.

If your forecast does not match, then obviously something else is happening. Is that ‘something’ in line with acceptable price action for your position … only you can decide.

Summary

The short position in biotech (LABD-22-08) has been maintained (not advice, not a recommendation). Now that it looks like a reversal, this sector could be in serious trouble.

All the while, the fundamentals continue to build.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Subdivision To Decision: Biotech

October 17, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-08, Positions, SPBIO 1 Comment

Lower Highs … Higher Lows

As we’ll see below, SPBIO, has oscillated itself into a decision point.

From a positioning standpoint, my firm has taken a bearish stance on biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday’s update anticipated more SPBIO, downside which did not happen.

Instead, we got a test of the latest SPBIO, high.

This testing action does not negate the short via LABD, but it’s now very close.

Once again, we’ll use an inverted chart of SPBIO to mimic the action of leveraged inverse fund LABD.

Biotech SPBIO, Hourly (Inverted)

The blue lines are subdivisions higher and the magenta, subdivisions lower.

The zoom chart below shows just how close we’re to short-set-up, exit. If SPBIO posts a new daily high, by definition it will push past the LABD, stop and the trade will close (not advice, not a recommendation).

Strictly speaking, in the chart above, the ‘risk’, is the distance between the latest hourly low for SPBIO (Inverted) and the stop location at the black arrow.

That’s approximately 50-pts on the SPBIO, chart which corresponds to about 0.43pts for LABD.

After hours action (5:57 p.m., EST) has LABD, trading lower -0.37pts, or -1.68%, @ 21.68, but still above the prior stop location @ LABD 21.23.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

October 16, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Basic Materials, Bonds, David Weis, DJUSBM, Gold & Silver, IYM, IYR, J.P. Morgan, LABD, LABD-22-08, Michael Cowan, Positions, SLV, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Survival Lilly, TLT, TMF, TSLA, Van Metre, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

What To Watch

First off, it’s nice to know, traders at J.P. Morgan, don’t have clue as what to do.

They say it themselves; Not One Person

On top of that, I’m supposed to pay money reading about how clueless they are. 🙂

No thanks. Let’s see if we can do better than the average ‘investment firm’.

Before we get started, a reminder; as Michael Cowen says:

‘It’s the bear market that reveals those who really understand’, not the bull market ‘geniuses‘.

With that, let’s get into it; first up, is silver.

Silver: Wyckoff Analysis Results

The downside reversal was identified to the day.

Adding to that post, Europeans could not only be freezing or starving this winter, but also subject to radiation poisoning.

Surely, they’re all thinking that ‘stack’ of silver is going to save them.

Silver (along with gold) remain trending lower.

Silver (SLV) is currently at support levels; therefore, some upward action (staying below SLV: 18.5) is normal behavior.

Bonds: Are They Ready?

Hold your nose … bonds could be setting up for a rally.

As Steven Van Metre reports here, the Fed ‘shenanigan’ meter is pegged.

Bonds, TLT Weekly

Note, the bullish TLT, set-up is not confirmed until MACD ticks higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Also note the repeating pattern of ‘spring to up-thrust‘.

Last up, biotech

Biotech SPBIO, Hourly (Inverted)

We’re going to use the chart from yesterday’s post to set the stage for getting closer-in.

This past Friday’s early morning ‘spike’ is barely visible; the 30-minute (inverted) chart below, has more detail.

SPBIO, 30-minute (Inverted)

Price action rejected the lower levels (higher on SPBIO) and pulled away throughout the session. That ‘pulling away’ continued on, all the way into the close.

That’s a clue there may be follow-through at the next session.

If the early session opens ‘gap-higher’ (SPBIO, lower), into the resistance area (four magenta arrows, hourly chart), it would be the fourth time pressuring at this area; markets rarely hold a fourth attempt.

Summary

Of course, other markets are being watched like real estate (IYR), Tesla (TSLA), and even Basic Materials (DJUSBM), a potential sleeper for significant downside.

Updates are planned if/when low risk shows up.

Positions: Current Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

The following is the positioning of my firm’s main (largest) account.

LABD-22-08:

LABD Entry @ 25.1278, 24.735, 26.025, 22.99, 22.29***, Stop is @ LABD 21.23***

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

October 15, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, Gwen Olsen, LABD, LABD-22-08, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, The Epoch Times, The Speck, Usual Suspects, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Special Biotech Edition

Bogart

An immense flood of data; research reports, lawsuits, expose articles and anecdotal evidence; every day, multiple times a day, something new.

Has the biotech technical (finally) lined up with the fundamental?

Those fundamentals are farther down but first, we’ll discuss the technical.

As a reminder, sometimes charts are inverted during analysis. This ‘trick’ was discovered years ago and is based on techniques used by Dr. Alexander Elder.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close (Inverted)

We’ve taken the weekly closing chart of SPBIO ($SPSIBI, on StockCharts) and inverted it to mimic the action of inverse fund LABD.

The index has no volume; so LABD is used instead.

The magenta arrow shows the pivot point for the index, corresponds will all-time record volume on leveraged inverse LABD.

Next, we’ll get closer-in and look at the ‘pivot’ on the hourly chart (inverted).

SPBIO, Hourly (Inverted).

The magenta arrows show successive positions (Livermore ‘probes’) entered (via LABD) before the main entry @ LABD 22.99, which was 90% of position size up to that point.

The next day (Friday) had a gap-lower open that was quickly reversed. Position size was increased by another 5%, at LABD 22.29 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Effective position equates to LABD 23.17

Price action pulled away steadily from the early morning levels, suggesting a sustainable reversal.

The Fundamentals

Some of this stuff, you just can’t make up.

Listed in somewhat chronological order, here they are (not an exhaustive list).

No. 1

Pfizer hires 600 to help document adverse events. Wasn’t it supposed to be ‘safe and effective’?

No. 2

Pilot Shortage

Fired/quit because they refuse to get ‘protection’.

A possible corollary to what’s happened, via injection, we have this.

No. 3

Pfizer, nobody wants their product … after the rollout.

No. 4

Who could it be?

Previously unknown (or rare) problems and illness now starting to accelerate.

No. 5

We’re here to help.

No. 6

You mean, it was all a lie?

No. 7

The real reason for getting ‘tested’?

No. 8

What did the media know and when did they know it?

No. 9

It’s still a ‘suggestion‘ but the payouts to family members are real.

No. 10

It’s over … and then it’s not.

No. 11

We’ll keep it quiet, so no feelings get hurt.

No. 12

How bad is your batch? Let’s see.

No. 13

You mean, it was never tested? I’m shocked.

No. 14

After all that, maybe we can give it another shot.

No. 15

A potential infinite number of complications … nothing to see here.

No. 16

Getting away with it? Not so fast.

No. 17

Just had a heart attack? We can help.

No. 18

Limited Hangout? You decide.

No. 19

Lastly, this is what it’s really all about.

Recorded years ago. Did her ‘prophecy’ come true?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wheels Come Off … Biotech

October 13, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-22-04, GDX, GDXJ, IYR, LABD, LABD-22-08, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Epoch Times, ZeroHedge

Unraveling, Quickly

This just out on ZeroHedge:

An Epoch Times article, using excerpts from a Lancet Report, linked here.

It’s best to let the reader sort out what it all means, arriving at one’s own conclusions.

Of course, the obvious problem, the ‘elephant’ is not addressed directly.

However, VAERS is quoted in The Epoch Times article, thus giving it legitimacy.

Leading The Downside

For some time, this site’s highlighted, biotech (SPBIO), as unique to all other indices save GDX, and GDXJ.

That is, it’s down the most since the bear market started.

As of today’s close, it’s down over – 54%, from all-time highs while the S&P is down only – 23.7%.

As documented over several years, the sector’s unique; it’s at risk (more than other indices) to implosion.

With today’s close, it looks like we’re at a critical juncture.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

The unmarked weekly chart

Compressed, with added trendlines.

It’s an obvious trading channel of immense size … but so is nearly everything else concerning these markets. We’re operating at unprecedented scale in unprecedented times.

But wait, there’s more.

The trading channel has Fibonacci time correlation(s).

We’ll expand the weekly chart for more clarity.

From channel entry, week ending 9/3/21, to the right-most contact point (week ending 9/16/22), is Fibonacci 55-Weeks.

Channel width measured from week ending 1/28/22, to the same contact-point, week ending 9/16/22, is a Fibonacci 34-Weeks.

We’re at The Danger Point®

Positions & Current Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

The following is the positioning of my firm’s main (largest) account.

DRV-22-04:

Entry @ 66.463, Stop @ 63.98

Discretionary exit (today) @ 75.96***

Trade Closed

LABD-22-08:

Entry @ 25.1278, 24.735, 26.025***, 22.99***, Stop is Open (to be set at next session)

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sentiment Shift … Biotech

October 9, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, SPBIO, Tim Truth, Ukraine, ZeroHedge

Was Friday, The Day?

Is the tide (finally) going out for biotech?

The end of the prior update, shows a lot coming to the surface.

So much, that it can’t be ignored.

Also coming out on Friday, was this report.

Is it all too much, price action has finally reversed? We’ll analyze that potential below.

Biotech SPBIO, Quarterly

First, the big picture.

There have been six consecutive lower quarters … the most of any major index

What’s not labeled above, is an apparent Head & Shoulders pattern forming; the arrow showing the rejection of the upward move could be the top of the Right Shoulder.

The left shoulder is considered to be the eight quarters that span, 6/29/18 – 3/31/20.

If it’s an H&S, and if the support is penetrated, the measured move target is shown.

That’s a lot of ‘ifs’.

Moving on to the weekly, we see confirmation of the right-side trendline. Also shown is the potential trading channel.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Price action could still break out to the upside from the channel line.

For that to happen, there would need to be some kind of huge catalyst.

So far, nothing out of the ordinary other than the typical Ebola outbreak and/or, radiation poisoning 🙂

Downside Reversal Probabilities

So, last Friday was decidedly down. If we’re in a reversal, what’s the next likely thing to happen?

For that answer, we go to the daily chart.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

The blue lines are a minor support zone.

If we are in a reversal, a lower open at the next session (into the support zone) weights probabilities to the downside.

If that happens, expect price action to attempt to ‘test’ Friday’s wide bar by moving higher … at least temporarily.

If there’s a higher open instead, it does not necessarily negate the reversal, but it does weaken the case.

It may mean there’s more upside testing and/or, the beginnings of a move to much higher levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279