Category Archives: SPY

Biotech’s … ‘Axis of Six’

March 27, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI 1 Comment

A Number Recurring Trough Time

You’ll have to judge for yourself if the chart with closing numbers and axis line, are of importance.

As a reminder, let’s not forget where the S&P bottomed, in 2009.

‘The S&P hit a low of 666, intraday’

With that, this update will be brief.

Biotech Sector Index, SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re using the actual index (SPBIO) and not the XBI, ETF, typically traded as a proxy.

After hours (as of 6:53 p.m., EST) has the ETF, XBI, trading unchanged to slightly lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Hang On To Your Shorts

March 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Weaker And Weaker, Still

Look! … Squirrel!

While everyone else is focused on a ‘tradable bounce’ in the S&P, with others in a freak-out on gold, back at the ranch, biotech has continued to sub-divide lower, getting weaker and weaker, still.

Note: All trades presented on this site during 2024 (ex: UNG), and 2025, have been to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The chart highlights the Fibonacci retrace levels.

A Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace is rare; markets typically like to go to 38.2%, or 50%.

If this retrace holds, it indicates significant weakness in the sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

As can been seen in the side-bar, current biotech short is LABD-25-03, with stop at yesterday’s LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Not shown on the chart, a trading channel that appears to be in-effect.

Update planned for that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Rout … Dead Ahead?

January 26, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, DRV, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Nasdaq, QQQ, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, SPY 1 Comment

Break, Test … and … Pause

Of course, in the markets, no one knows for sure.

However, what we do know as shown below, real estate IYR, has formed a terminating wedge.

In addition, it’s broken down from that wedge and is now testing the underside.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With the Dow, S&P, and QQQs, at or near all-time-highs, real estate’s a laggard; posting its all-time-high, years ago.

Last week was a narrow-range bar.

On a daily basis, price action attempted to move higher twice and has retreated (from that attempt) each time.

Then, The Fed

Let’s not forget we have a Fed meeting coming up on Tuesday and Wednesday, this week.

Popcorn at the ready.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trump Predicts ‘Depression’

January 1, 2025 By in Appalachia's Homestead, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Greater Depression, Jerimiah Babe, S&P, S&P 500, SPY Tags: , ,

So, Here We Are

Looks like it’s official with a statement of the obvious, link here.

This site’s first mention of ‘depression’ likelihood, was here, over three years ago.

From that, we have this on The Great Depression:

  1. Intentional destruction of the food supply
  2. Real unemployment numbers falsified
  3. People starved to death

Of course, others have been sounding the alarm.

First mention of Jerrimiah Babe, four years ago, link here. Appalachia’s Homestead, three-years ago, link here.

Brass Tacks

So, this is where it gets real.

Starting tomorrow, January 2nd, we may see what the New Year holds.

Will we get the ‘normal’ January effect bounce or are we going to decline straight-away (not advice, not a recommendation).

Results: 2024

For the year just-ended, Three Ten Trading, LLC executed a total of 453-trades.

Every single one, except for Nat Gas, UNG were to the short side.

For the year, the S&P 500, gained approximately 25%.

The corporate account (un-audited) for the same period, posted gains well into triple-digits.

It’s important to note, this gain was achieved going short (except as noted) in an overall rising market.

What happens if or when, that market trend turns lower?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Hartford ‘Wedge’

December 10, 2024 By in 2007 - 2008, HIG, Insurance, S&P 500, SPY Tags:

What Happened, Last Time?

The last time we had a major (sustained) economic melt-down, was 2007 – 2008.

The market (S&P) bottomed on March 9th, 2009, posting a low at 666.79.

During that collapse, Hartford Financial was one of the hardest hit.

It imploded, crashed, by -96.87%.

It’s important to note, HIG bottomed at 3.33, during the week-ending, 3/6/09; you can’t make this stuff up. 🙂

So, let’s take a look at what HIG, is doing now and if it’s at risk, yet again (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re looking at the long-term, the Quarterly Chart

Hartford Financial, HIG, Quarterly

With just a few weeks left in the Quarter, HIG is positing a reversal.

From a classical analysis standpoint, a reversal back into the wedge (and then upside test) would be a potential sell-signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Whacked!

October 24, 2024 By in Catherine Austin Fitts, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, IWM, NEM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, TLT Tags: ,

Just The Start?

Has Newmont (NEM) started the reversal?

From a price action standpoint, we have an outside down weekly bar as well as (potential) monthly reversal.

Despite fever-pitch, ‘the world’s ending’ talk on gold and (supposed) silver breakouts, we’re reminded here (time stamp 3:10) to expect a downward spike in gold should there be (serious) international trouble (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont’s the largest cap in the GDX; let’s take a look at the sector.

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly

GDX, in the same vein as IWM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, and TLT (to name a few), posting its own terminating wedge.

Noted in the chart, GDX has entered back into the wedge formation after a ‘throw-over’; typically, a bearish sign (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

D.R. Horton ‘Rolls Over’

February 17, 2024 By in DHI, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, NVDA, QQQ, Real Estate, SLV, SOXX, SPY, TLT, ZeroHedge

When Real Estate Goes …

It’s been said, ‘when real estate goes, everything goes’.

Like a slow-motion train wreck, since late January, this site’s been watching the (potential) topping activity of D.R. Horton, DHI.

Now, DHI is reversing; coincident with the housing starts collapse, link here.

D.R. Horton, DHI Weekly Close

We’re right at the top of the ‘terminating wedge’.

Downside penetration and test will provide confirmation of the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The major market indices appear to be topping out as well.

The SOXX, may have reversed. Trading was ‘outside-down’ during yesterday’s session.

The SPY, and QQQ, also posted outside-down.

The potential Nvidia, NVDA reversal (link here) shows that so far, that high has not been exceeded.

Rates Up, Not Down

Adding gasoline to the fire, part of this site’s strategy is rates are going higher, not lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

So far, we see that’s true with long bonds (TLT) reversing to the downside, yet again.

And Then … Gold

Let’s not leave out the latest bullish report on gold (and silver), link here.

Notice the bias … that silver’s cheap relative to gold.

How about the massive, multi-year, ‘non-confirmation‘ between gold and the other monetary metals.

If it was real 1980s style inflation, everything would be moving up in tandem … which it is not; something else is going on.

Is the mining sector, GDX, GDXJ, anticipating a price decline in gold?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Desperation Inflow, The ‘SPY’

December 25, 2023 By in Holiday Turns, Humbled Trader, NFLX, Richie Naso, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

Who’s left To Buy?

The massive, $21-Billion inflow to the S&P tracking fund SPY, may be signaling a historic ‘changing of hands’, indicating bulls are exhausted.

The coming days and weeks will reveal if that was indeed, the top.

Let’s not forget, if we’re rotating lower from here, the highs were posted during a holiday week, just before Christmas.

Holiday Turns

Markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a holiday week. Reference these links for ‘Holiday Turns’.

Bearish Divergences Everywhere

All over the market landscape, we have bearish MACD divergences in multiple timeframes; Monthly, Weekly and Daily … even on some 4-Hour charts.

With that in mind, let’s look at just one example: Netflix.

Netflix NFLX, Weekly

Be reminded, the U.S. consumer is maxed-out; they’re (likely) finished from a continuing spending perspective. Credit card balances at all-time highs.

With food prices pressing upward and availability a problem, one has to think, ‘You can’t eat Netflix’.

We have a ‘double’ bearish divergence. The daily chart (not shown) has a bearish divergence as well.

In addition, last Friday’s price action on the daily was ‘outside-down’, or ‘bearish engulfing candle’.

Premium or Discount

Using veteran trader Richie Naso’s terminology (see last post), is NFLX at a premium or discount?

Is price action set up to reverse or continue higher?

It’s likely we’re about to find out, starting tomorrow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Market ‘Tests’ & ‘Instability’

May 2, 2023 By in David Weis, GDXJ, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, SPY, Usual Suspects 1 Comment

Taking The Helm

‘We have assumed control …’

For the mining sector we’re about to find out if it’s bulls or bears.

With today’s overall (S&P, Dow, QQQ, etc.) down market and the press screaming in hysterical panic at the start of the day, you’d think the market had collapsed 50% or more.

The last update (over the weekend) had this to say about the S&P (emphasis added):

“So, here we are: The market (SPY) has rallied over the past week, giving the illusion that all is well.

However, it too is now in up-thrust (reversal) position.“

So, the SPY declines by just over 1%, everyone loses their head and starts talking about CBDC.

Moving on to the ‘knee-jerk’ sector for the day, let’s look at the miners and specifically GDXJ.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close

Admittedly, the prior update was unsure whether or not this sector had its up-thrust reversal ‘test’.

Well, now we know.

The chart above has all the Usual Suspects.

We see the spring to up-thrust repeating pattern.

Then, a steady decline from the up-thrust and today’s short-sharp test or as the late David Weis used to call it, a ‘gut check’.

At this point the market’s unstable.

We’ll know soon if somehow we’re on to new highs or if this was the last gasp of a bull move withing an overall, years-long, bear market.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Narrow ‘Breadth’ … What It Means

April 27, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AAPL, AMZN, Biotech, LABD, MSFT, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Maverick of Wall Street, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Record Extreme

One report covering the historic narrowing of the market is here.

Never before seen narrow breadth: What does it mean?

It means the market’s ‘keeping up appearances’ while the foundation’s been removed.

That way, the professionals can get out the door; sell or sell-short, funnel capital to the only three tickers left (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT), while the public looks at the SPY, and says ‘Where’s the collapse?’

Let the crowd focus on the S&P … probably the most computer controlled, AI driven, Machiavellian manipulated market in the world … but hey, I’ve got my i-phone trading app and I’m going to ‘Put it to the man’.

Meanwhile, downside leader biotech, inches lower.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

Let’s review where we are with SPBIO, with the full understanding that anything can happen.

For now, we’re heading lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s obvious. Biotech’s following a Fibonacci time sequence.

Let’s pull out to the larger weekly chart and see something really scary.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close

If we really are at the right side of the trading channel, it’s not looking good for the bulls.

Of course, it all makes sense.

The market’s at record breadth divergence. Banks are collapsing, Ukraine (fabricated, or not) coupled with trade wars, the consumer’s tapped-out (credit at maximum) and on it goes.

Positioning

Early this session, the short position in biotech (via LABD) was increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

The table below shows the trading (entry) activity during the on-going reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hard Stop: 16.79

The notation ‘LABD-23-05’, indicates this is the fifth trading campaign (or trade series) in LABD for the year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279