The first part describes some technical details that are all true … after that, well, you decide.
Turns out, gold is going to skyrocket because of Russia !
I suppose, anything can happen.
We get fundamentals and anecdotal data as the reasoning for a Russia driven up-side breakout.
The problem with fundamentals is, they don’t work.
They never have worked.
Wyckoff discovered this a century ago when he said (from his autobiography) that ‘stocks move based on a power of their own. That power, has nothing to do with fundamentals.’
Trading genius Ed Seykota repeated that truth during his interview for ‘Market Wizards’.
He called them ‘funny mentals’ and went on to say he nearly, if not always lost money using them.
This article’s so good that I have to pay to read it.
From reading the shaded area, we can infer a similar (bullish) discussion to the first link above.
Sorry, not interested.
Summary
This time really could be different. Gold could launch into a sustained upward breakout.
However, the charts (GDX, GDXJ) at this juncture, are saying ‘not yet’.
Maintaining short (not advice, not a recommendation) via DUST … which is now in the green.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Now, that news is just starting to hit the mainstream.
They pretend like they’re not sure what’s it’s all about. So, let’s help them out with some facts.
Embedded within the article at this link, is an actual list of ‘strange anomalies’ that are occurring amongst the most athletically conditioned in the world.
If it’s happening with the athletes, it’s happening in the rest of the population.
Summary:
Early this session, Gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ have, or are testing their highs with inverse funds DUST and JDST testing the lows.
If this is a major transition from up to down for gold and the miners, this type of back and forth is normal.
Positions:
We’re still at the danger point but action can’t stay at these levels for too long. If it does, that would imply the bulls are gaining control and going to move the market to much higher levels.
Obviously, since we’re short (not advice, not a recommendation) via DUST, we’re on the other side of the gold bull trade.
A reasonable stop for DUST would be at, near, or just below yesterday’s low of 16.72 (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of this post, with DUST currently trading at DUST, 17.11, my firm’s position is down a modest – 1.82%.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Back in the day during the dot-com boom, fund managers were throwing in the towel (‘value’ fund managers, if memory serves) because the markets as they said, “did not make sense anymore”.
Valuations were insane and managers with decades of experience decided the time had come to exit for good.
Of course, it was a contrarian indicator. Those lofty valuations and prices were at or near their peak.
It was not long after when the market cracked. There was a rebound of sorts but the stage was set for a long bear market.
History Repeating?
This is a brief update to document two bear managers that are quitting in separate ways.
The other has exited short positions which included getting out of Tesla (TSLA) just before it rolled over.
These types of high-profile events usually happen at or near a significant top.
If the overall markets continue to grind higher, there may be similar retirements and/or fund closures.
Gold (GLD) Update
Before a market can reverse to the downside, it has to stop going up.
Sounds obvious but with the bullish hysteria on gold, coupled with non-stop inflation talk, it may take a while for the bulls to exhaust themselves.
We’re still at the danger point for GLD as well as the miners GDX, GDXJ.
Items of note for the session:
GDX had a double top (same high as Friday) and the inverse fund DUST posted + 0.01, above its own Friday low.
It could mean we’re at the extreme(s) with no more directional thrust or just a pause before continuing with the existing trend.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The short video clip by Mark Dice, linked here, shows how former successful and possibly even meaningful (on a rare occasion) movie productions/franchises are being systematically destroyed.
This phenomenon is not just Hollywood but nationwide.
To be specific, the same type of destruction is occurring in the ‘wealth management’ industry.
One of the latest salvos is this ‘initiative’ to make that industry more diverse.
The comments section talks about the ‘talent going elsewhere’ to start their own business.
That may be true but remember, ‘Fiduciary Responsibility’ requirements make sure the person with the least amount of knowledge is in control … the client.
Which brings us to the next bullet item.
No. 2
The ‘Average Investor’
Years ago, somewhere around the early 1990s, Tony Robbins interviewed Robert Prechter Jr.
One of the questions Robbins asked was this:
‘What should the average investor do?’
Prechter’s response was timeless. He said:
‘Quit being the average investor’
Absolutely brutal but true.
It was a polite way of saying to get busy; stop being the ignorant, lazy, average American.
Study and learn the markets. That way you won’t be subject to the corruption and villainy that permeates the financial services industry.
Don’t think that statement’s true?
Just watch a couple of episodes of “American Greed” and see how many involve financial scams that fleece an unsuspecting investment public.
In the above link, our ‘professional’ positions short in a biotech company, Orexigen Therapeutics.
If there’s one thing an aspiring market trader speculator learns at the start, it’s never, never, never go short on biotech (at least the individual equity).
Anything can happen … and it did.
No. 3
Flash Crash Ready
This just out from ZeroHedge; Is another Flash-Crash in the cards?
First off, let’s review what a flash crash looks like.
Even way back in my SeekingAlpha days, I proposed the next major market hit would be like nothing else.
Possibly a 20% – 50%, drop overnight or something similar.
Is it not better to plan, analyze and position (not advice, not a recommendation) with a Black Swan event in mind or just go merrily along thinking you’re as close to the entry door as the exit?
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
How many of our YouTube ‘stackers’ are chess players?
A quick check of three popular (randomly picked) ‘stacking’ YouTubers, has one showing his intro with a pile of silver being stacked under the floor.
The other has ‘trinkets’ on her desk and supposed collectibles behind her.
The other has gone as far to say, the reason gold and silver are not going higher, is because of the public itself.
No overt reference to chess or any reference to chess play as a means of addressing market conditions.
They may indeed have knowledge but they’re not showing it as a matter of course.
If memory serves, one of Richard Denis’ interview questions to his potential ‘Turtle’ trader(s) was whether he (she) played chess.
Take look at the host site’s business logo (Three Ten Trading, LLC) and we’ll leave the discussion there.
It’s the author’s opinion, the ‘stacker’ sites are in the business of getting more business; not analyzing the markets with any high level of thought or seriousness.
However, they might have a purpose.
It’s possible, they fulfill the ‘bread and circuses’ void that’s the hallmark of an empire’s collapse; which brings us to the situation at hand.
This ‘collapse’ we’re in, is a process not an event.
As we continue on, it’s becoming clear that single-mindedly stockpiling inedible metal in hopes of surviving what’s here now, and what’s coming, is a major (if not potentially fatal) blunder.
The players on this global chess board are making their moves and then counter moves.
Case in point is Southwest Airlines cancellations and shutdown.
Southwest Airlines:
The company has made its move.
The employees countered with their move. Perhaps even more importantly, they did it with bravery.
It’s likely, a large part of them, if not all (who are not showing up for work) will eventually be terminated.
It’s also reasonable to think when they made their move, they understood full well, the potential (termination) outcome.
Economic Shutdown:
As ZeroHedge reports, what if more corporations experience similar (employee walk-out) events?
What if it’s a mass exodus?
Is anybody really ready to walk or ride their bike … even a horse, to work because there’s no fuel at the gas station?
If there’s no fuel, there are no deliveries of any kind.
A check of the Home Depot, in this area has it relatively stocked in the garden section.
However, from a personal standpoint, after checking the local Tractor Supply, there’s no Jobe’s (organic) fertilizer to be found at either site (save the one torn bag at Home Depot).
The shelves are empty … for that item at least.
Mass Psychological Shift
Remember our example of herd behavior? That it can turn on a dime; doing it instantly across thousands of miles?
Storable food is running low. What about seeds and fertilizer?
Genesis 41
What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?
Suppose they collectively decide (rightly or wrongly), the ‘stackers’ are just another herd of followers.
That it was all yet another lie; a diversion away from the real problem.
Silver and gold are great if you already have it.
However, this site’s sticking to the Biblical, Genesis 41, world view.
That is, corn and grain (food) come first. Then, gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).
Remember, Joseph was paid first (for grain) with money (i.e., the silver stack).
When the money was exhausted, livestock was used.
When that ran out, the people sold themselves into slavery to obtain food.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Our ‘parabolic’ report on MRNA, was posted before the open, August 10th.
That post included the following summary:
‘This is the type of parabolic rise (and blow-off top) typically seen in commodities.’
Then, about seven minutes after the open, MRNA peaked and reversed into a two-day collapse over -25%.
Down-thrust energy, the amount of downward force in price action, was literally off the chart; the strongest ever recorded since MRNA, started trading in December of 2018.
Price action leads the news. This case was no exception.
This report, just out on ZeroHedge shows there’s a half-hearted attempt to draw attention to a so-called ‘rare’ side effect.
Even so, the insiders probably figure the jig is up and they’re bailing out.
The biotech sector (SPBIO) continues its bear market decline. Yesterday, it closed down over -32%, from its February 2021, highs.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If the mainstream media is good for anything, it’s the ability to keep the herd, the retail, (Robinhood kids, et al.) fully distracted until it’s absolutely too late for action.
Even though this report from ZeroHedge gives all kinds of ‘signals’ saying we’re not there yet; It even goes as far as showing there’s no yield curve inversion. Of course that means ‘no risk’ of bear market.
Then going on to say, ‘None of these measures indicate a bear market is near’. I mean, you can’t make this stuff up.
What’s the table above (yesterday’s close) say about what’s really going on?
At this point it’s obvious the media are not going to discuss the on-going bear market in biotech, SPBIO.
Doing so, would require some kind of investigation as to why? That would open Pandora’s box and have everyone digging for truth … something to be avoided (censured) at all costs.
Amateurs always want (need) to know why.
Livermore was never concerned with the why. He looked for ‘what’. What is the price action doing now or what is it likely to do.
As Wyckoff said, ‘the why always comes out later … after the fact’
‘Why’ is a useless trading strategy.
However, in the case of biotech, we can take a good guess what the ‘why’ is all about.
Fall and Winter are very close now. As this interview with Stew Peters reveals, Fall and Winter are when we get the real picture of ‘side effects’.
Biotech is ahead of the pack on the downside and for good reason.
Positioning:
Positions have not changed except for additions of LABD as SPBIO declines and LABD heads higher (not advice, not a recommendation).
As a reminder, this site’s not interested in day trading or even swing trading unless that’s all the market offers.
No, we’re interested in positioning strategically.
This type of trading is modeled after the host’s twenty-four years of experience with aircraft flight test and certification.
A typical project would take five to seven years to complete; have a near infinite number of complex stages along the way with each one a profession unto itself.
At this juncture, biotech may be poised for the largest implosion ever seen in market history.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
‘The real money’s going to be made, after the plug is pulled’
Well, that’s close.
Actually, the real money’s made on the way down … when the plug is pulled … not after.
‘After’, is when you take the huge gains from the short side and then allocate that to areas which stand to recover … or at least have a good chance of recovery.
It’s a two-step process:
Nobody demonstrated that better than Livermore himself during the panic of 1907.
It’s probably no surprise that panic was potentially a fabricated event (sound familiar?).
Titanic engineering design approval: July of 1908.
Construction begins: March 1909.
Sea trials: Early April, 1912
Titanic ‘sinks’: April 15, 1912.
April 15th, is tax day … coincidence … no.
Whether or not there really is a ship (or which one is) at the bottom of the Atlantic, is immaterial.
What’s important, was that it all may have been a controlled demolition of the financial system so that it cold be ‘reset’ to allow fractional reserve banking.
The fly in the ointment? Unexpectedly, Livermore owned the market at the bottom. He could have single handedly destroyed the financial system by executing more short selling.
That’s when J.P. Morgan (possibly chief cook and bottle washer for the ‘reset’) called him in to appeal to Livermore’s ‘patriotism’; to not destroy the market. You can’t make this stuff up.
So, it’s time to reset the system every hundred years or so.
Just like it’s time to have a medical ‘incident’ and reduce the population every hundred years or so:
How does this relate to the markets? For this update, the preamble above, brings us to gold (GLD):
Gold (GLD) Analysis:
It’s no secret, price action in GLD and the miners (GDX, GDXJ), has been analyzed for months as bearish.
The weekly chart shows GLD, right at the edge of a terminating wedge; about to break lower:
The measured move … to around GLD ~ 120, is exactly at the Fibonacci 161.8%, projection (not shown).
If there’s a wedge breakdown, we have two separate measurement techniques targeting the same area.
Gold (GLD) did break lower but has not progressed to the measured move. Latest update is here and here.
The next chess move, is probably not going to be dollar destruction.
No. The next move is likely to be as stated before, supply chain shut-down with the objective of ‘starve them out’.
Correct but not the way the media plays it.
They attempt to tie it to ‘climate change‘. Yes, the climate is changing but the earth is getting colder, not warmer. Crop failures are the result.
Couple that with intentional weather modification (weaponization), controlled demolition of the supply chain and voila! Food becomes scarce or more expensive or both.
In a prior update, when that statement was made, it may have sounded extreme. Now, we have this interview and time stamp (8:11), where we get the exact same thing.
Take Action:
This article, just out on ZeroHege is a good one-stop shop to start or continue being out in front of ‘events’.
Here’s a brief video of one man’s action, in action:
Four hens, a rooster, in an urban setting (houses on three sides).
The rooster was not part of the plan. If you look closely, you can see his ‘No Crow‘ collar … it works most of the time.
He was unexpected but is now seen as an asset.
He keeps the hens under control (otherwise, they fight) and gets them all back in the coop at night.
Is it a hassle: Yes.
Is it messy: Yes.
Will the neighbors not care about the crowing, be clamoring (and paying with cash, gold, silver) for eggs and chicks three months from now, if/when food shipments are cut off? Probably, yes
Mass recognition of potential famine to come in the spring when the farmers do not have enough ‘inputs’ (seed, fertilizer) for a viable crop.
Don’t forget about no spare parts for farm equipment.
Scaboo
The rooster, “Scaboo” was such a happy camper that he was crowing all day.
He was moved outside of town to a more rural location.
We still have access to him if needed for fertilized eggs.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
excuse me but people post about the WEF here all the time, are you new?play_arrow7play_arrow
Not Your Father’s ZH34 minutes ago (Edited)
Yeah, right? I and others have posted many times about the not-so-Great Reset, Cyber Polygon, Event 201, Herr Unkle Klaus Schwab’s Chez Davos broiled insect loaf under polystyrene, owning nothing and being thrilled, etc. Whitney Webb has been one of the best reporters on it, Catherine Austin Fitts, many more. Lew Rockwell is the single best place to start from, as it links to all of this. Speaking of which: 7.9 Billion Lives in the Balance
It’s obvious those monitoring and commenting on ZeroHedge are wide awake.
Once again, all of this brings us back to biotech.
Biotech, SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:
We’re going to start with an unmarked chart of inverse fund LABD, on the weekly scale:
It may not be obvious at first, but the chart can be separated in two as shown:
That inflection point, the week of May 14th, ’21, is where the bulls attempted a reversal and the bears (of SPBIO) are going to take control.
Notice that before May 14th, price action is wide and choppy. Afterwards, it settles down into a clean and rythmic flow.
From that inflection, LABD price corrected downward a Fibonacci 8 weeks before pivoting to the upside (SPBIO lower).
Now, we can draw a trading channel:
For months, the anticipated low of SPBIO, high for the LABD trade (not advice, not a recommendation) was/is planned to be the third week in October.
As price action progresses, and taking a cue from Robert Prechter (about trading for large gains), one needs to be prepared for SPBIO to just keep on going lower (LABD higher); even through October if that’s the case.
Summary:
The ZeroHedge article and especially the comments, show we’re in the middle of the largest fraud in world history.
It’s disappointing but not surprising, ‘certified’ management agencies (and I personally monitor quite a few) are saying nothing (publicly) about what’s really going on.
Their websites still show the ubiquitous sailboat with the retired couple looking out wistfully into the (chem-trailed) sunset.
Trading For Your Life:
With each passing day, it’s becoming obvious self-employment (like trading) may be the only way out. The big corporations are likely to mandate (illegally) en-masse, that everyone’s injected.
The plan to destroy the smaller businesses looks to be moving forward via more ‘lockdowns’.
Some states (like Texas) may somehow be separate. So far, so good.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
This article, just out from ZeroHedge, says ‘consumers’ are in a revolt.
No more high prices.
Buying plans for the major items, housing, auto, appliances has declined dramatically.
One chart, linked here, shows consumer complaints about high prices are the most since the data started … 1961.
The reality is the retail consumer has come to the end of the rope.
To loosely quote Von Mises; ‘If you don’t voluntarily get your spending under control … the market will do it for you.’
To quote another financial source, Steven Van Metre; he has discussed for months, that high prices will be rejected. The economy will contract and bond prices will rise.
Bonds have indeed gone up in anticipation of contraction; or forecasting an outright collapse.
Throw into the mix that we’re going to have some kind of ‘fatality event’ this coming winter; for sure, there won’t be much demand for high priced items … just from the contraction of the population itself.
Which brings us to biotech (SPBIO).
SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:
The unmarked chart of inverse fund LABD is first (just to give perspective):
Next we’ll show that LABD has or is testing support and at the same time, confirming a trendline:
Biotech is the downside leader … sometimes tag-teaming with gold but for the most part it’s biotech.
Positioning:
It’s no secret I have positioned my firm short this sector in a big way since April of this year (not advice, not a recommendation).
That position has been adjusted over the months but has been steadily increased since the intermediate low on June 28th.
Since that low, the position has been increased six times (including yesterday) and may also be done so today.
Summary:
Once again, we’re heading into the weekend. The S&P (SPY) has just printed ‘out-side-down’.
Anyone still want to hold long the market?
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 