Gold Penetrates Support

September 16, 2022 By in GLD, GOLD, Wyckoff

The ‘Inflation’ Narrative Is False

How do we know the ‘narrative’ is false?

Because the price action tells us at this juncture, we’re in some kind of ‘deflation’ impulse.

Taking it a step further, what happens if we don’t get the much assumed ‘hyperinflation’.

What if something else is afoot?

Remember, a Black Swan can also be an upcoming event that’s widely accepted as fact but does not happen.

Now, to the ‘inflation’ indicator itself: Gold

Gold (GLD) Weekly Close

The downside penetration is clear.

GLD, is at The Danger Point.

If we really do have inflation and gold’s going to launch much higher, the last report stated, penetrating support and setting up a Wyckoff ‘spring’ condition would be a good place to start.

So, here we are.

As this post is being created, GLD is rebounding higher by about +0.50%.

This is normal market behavior.

However, the next chart says gold’s likely to have a hard time moving decisively higher.

On a weekly close basis, gold’s in a confirmed downward channel.

It’s going to take a lot of demand to break out of that trend.

Summary

So, far, the attitude of the ‘average investor’ to gold’s decline is “Good, I’ll just buy more.”

Six months or a year from now, when food supplies have run out or become so expensive, only ‘zee bugs’ will be reasonably priced, one has to wonder if we’ll all have the same attitude.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There is no ‘Spoon’

September 13, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-22-05, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, Wyckoff

Paradigm Shifts

We’re living in the surreal.

Only those who can ‘see’, understand it’s like something out of The Matrix.

The old paradigms no longer apply.

There is no ‘Pivot’

There never was a ‘pivot’; just like there never was a goal of 2% inflation, or full employment.

Way back in 1921, Jesse Livermore pegged it when he told Wyckoff, the whole premise of Wall Street, was to spread “deception”.

Deception is the key.

Attempting to figure out the next earnings release, the CPI or employment numbers, inflation, or what the Fed is likely to do, is to buy into the deception.

Following that deception, is the path of the amateur.

Meanwhile, back on the professional side; as early as 1909, Wyckoff discovered market prices move based on an energy and objective or their own … completely removed from any fundamentals.

A few days ago, this update, discussed how biotech SPBIO, was potentially at a pivot point and ready to reverse lower.

Well, downside reversal is what we have.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close

Even though we still have three trading days left, SPBIO, appears to be confirming the right-side trading channel.

Last Week.

And … this week

With the overall markets down sharply, events appear to be set in motion to continue downside action.

Summary:

As stated in prior updates, the current trade; LABD-22-05, was initiated in anticipation of a significant break lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

On the biotech fundamentals side (not that it matters), the wheels have come off.

The top weighted equities have no P/E … a decent conclusion may be the lower weightings don’t either.

Nobody’s making any money; rates are rising and we’re heading straight into an economic depression.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Ready To Move

September 11, 2022 By in GLD, GOLD, Jerimiah Babe, Russia, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Up or Down ?

Before we get started, no analysis would be complete without the latest mega bull forecasts for gold.

Here they are:

“Everyone Is WRONG About This Cycle” – Peter Schiff

Well, ok. I only have one bullish report.

Since it’s from Schiff, do we really need more? 🙂

Remember, back when it was the Russians that were going to move gold higher? You really can’t make this stuff up.

So, let’s move on and take a look at the truth … the price action for gold (GLD).

Gold (GLD), Daily Close

The un-marked daily chart shows about three-years of price action.

The next chart shows the ‘Changing of Hands’ that was first identified over four months ago in this post.

Also shown is the current (channel) trendline that appears to be in effect; GLD, is ‘respecting’ the line.

The left side channel line is grey in color so that multiple hits are shown more clearly.

However, the next chart is where it gets interesting.

If or when GLD penetrates support, it would by definition be set-up in Wyckoff ‘spring position’.

If GLD, was going to launch to new all-time highs, getting itself into ‘spring position’ would be an excellent place to start the move.

If and when there’s penetration of support, one thing to watch closely is the volume.

Would it be another high volume ‘changing of hands’ (for the upside) or a low volume affair that grinds on down.

Summary

From a fundamental standpoint, where’s the money going to come from to increase the demand for gold?

We’re already at the front end of (very likely) the largest real estate crash in U.S. history.

The consumer’s tapped out with record high credit card debt; mass layoffs have already started.

Bankruptcies in some areas are up over 100% from last year. Bankruptcy means ‘liquidation’ and that includes any precious metals.

Anything can happen and gold could rally.

However, the backdrop of demand destruction and asset collapse, suggest the direction for gold continues to be to lower levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Santa Claus’ Rally

September 10, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, LABD-22-05, Livermore, Loeb, Pinball Preparedness, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, Wyckoff 2 Comments

That Was it!

It’s going to be a very different place come December.

This won’t be like ’08 -’09, where all the stops are being pulled to ‘rescue’ the market.

No, this time really is different.

We can all see by now; the plan is controlled demolition.

Paraphrasing Jerimiah Babe, and Pinball Preparedness, we haven’t even got started (with the collapse) and the public’s already folding up.

What’s it going to be like when it really hits?

This past week, all the major indices have gone through some type of relief rally. Call it a Santa Claus rally because there probably won’t be one this December.

Trading Consistency

Throughout this upward correction, the case has been made over and again, only biotech SPBIO’s in a technical (and fundamental) condition that would allow it to decline farthest and fastest (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wyckoff analysis along with Livermore’s strategic approach that’s coupled with Loeb’s ‘focus’, has led us to (shorting) this sector exclusively.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close

Looking at the far-right side of the chart, SPBIO rallied this past week. It looks like it may head higher … that is, until we put in the trend-lines.

Now, let’s put in the trendlines.

Extended trendlines show the downside potential.

We’re about to see how this works out.

Friday’s upward action in SPBIO slowed with inverse LABD, posting narrow (downside) action as well.

Ready to reverse.

Summary

Trading action in the past week amounted to reducing the position size in LABD-22-05, by about 4.6% (not advice, not a recommendation).

If and when SPBIO continues is downward trajectory, that position (shorting via LABD) will again be increased as the market allows.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

We’ve Seen This Movie, Before

September 8, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, 1907, 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008, 2022, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TDA-LABD-22-02

1907, 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000, 2007, … and Now

As Scott Walters has said:

‘It’s different this time.

It’s Worse!‘

That ‘worse’ part includes the adverse moves in the market.

This time around, as opposed to ’07 – ’08, they really do seem to be worse.

Which, brings us to biotech SPBIO.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Just to remind ourselves where biotech is at the moment, we have the un-marked weekly chart.

This sector’s the only one (miners excluded) that’s trading below the 50-Week and 200 Week Moving Averages with a 50-wk cross to the downside.

On a weekly basis, we’re in a major long-term downtrend that looks to have finished its upside correction.

Getting closer-in on the hourly chart we have the following.

SPBIO, Hourly

What do you see?

Here’s the marked-up version.

Over and again; a fractal set-up called ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust‘.

The zoom chart below shows that price action appears to be struggling at the resistance area (black line).

Danger Point

At this juncture we’re at The Danger Point®

Enough of a push higher and SPBIO, could continue on upward, overcoming significant technical and fundamental barriers.

However, since we’re trending lower in the longer timeframes, probabilities suggest that downtrend may be ready (or near ready) to re-assert itself.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (Short), The Details

September 6, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, The Speck, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Relentless Positioning For The Downside

Like a terrier on a mailman’s leg, positioning short biotech via LABD, has been relentless (not advice, not a recommendation).

This update details the current positioning via 3X, Leveraged Inverse Fund, LABD.

This is not investment advice; this site has no obligation to provide the following information.

However, as stated in the About section, one of the purposes here, is to document trade actions and results.

With that in mind, the green arrows show the locations of LABD entries for the short-biotech (SBPBIO) trade identified as LABD-22-05.

Biotech SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, Daily

The magenta arrow at the far right of the chart, is the ‘break-even’ point. It’s about 1.75 – 2.0 points away from the current price.

Note: This is not ‘Dollar Cost Averaging’.

Few in the industry know that ‘dollar cost averaging’ is based on a scam conducted by the bucket shops in the early 1900s.

It’s comforting to know, that method (the scam), has made its way into at least one SEC certification requirement.

There, I feel much better 🙂

One of, if not the main reason for working this trade with the current method, is the real danger this market could ‘implode’ at any minute.

We’re just one (un)planned event away from being down 20% – 50% overnight.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Weekly Close

The weekly close shows SPBIO to be unique among all the major indices (miners excluded).

Not even the sister index IBB, has the weekly MA cross (black arrow) to the downside.

“You Are Here”

On the chart below, the complete positioning short SPBIO is shown as the magenta rectangle.

Also shown, are measured move targets.

Looking at the potential of this trade, the reason for the dogged persistence becomes clear.

Summary

As always, anything can happen … the trade could fall apart.

That’s true.

However, probabilities for continued market downside are increasing, not decreasing.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Possibly, FATE(AL)

September 2, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, BEAM, Biotech, FATE, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, The Maverick of Wall Street, TWST

Trend-Lining @ -99%, Annualized

Is biotech about to go ‘flat-line’?

It’s not just biotech.

As The Maverick of Wall St. presents in his latest video, linked here … the entire market is poised for its next leg down.

In that video, estimates for that next leg are anywhere from -30% to -90%.

Fate Therapeutics FATE, Daily

FATE, is one of our ‘three amigos‘ of the sector, SPBIO.

The daily chart shows a confirmed, multi-hit trend line that’s declining at over -99%, annualized

FATE, isn’t the only one in the ‘- 99%’, crowd

TWST, is also trending lower at -99%, and BEAM, is running a close second at -98%, annualized.

Summary

Today, Friday (mid-session), is the last trading day before a holiday weekend.

During such days, we typically have an upward (low volume) bias.

With that, there’s still just a bit more trading room for FATE to contact the right side trendline.

Of course, what happens next will be the important part.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

GDX, Down 5-Months, & Counting

August 30, 2022 By in All-The-Same, Bitcoin, Crypto, Dollar, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, The Speck

Way Back, To 2012

We have to go all the way back nearly ten-years, to find five consecutive down-months.

The bear market in the miners GDX, and GDXJ, is not any news to those accessing (or following) this site over the long-haul.

Nearly two years ago, this report pegged the bear market before it was even a blip in anyone else’s pineal gland. 🙂

That fact’s proven-out by the listing of no fewer than ten links to other analyst’s super-bullish posts on gold and gold miners.

It’s safe to say at that time, everybody else was pointed in one (bullish) direction.

So, what’s happened to GDX (and GDXJ) since that October 25th, 2020, report?

GDX, is down approximately – 38.2%, and GDXJ, has declined – 47.6%.

Not exactly a bull market.

Senior Miners, GDX, Monthly Bar

Looking at the chart, it’s obvious; the prior ‘five-months’, distance traveled, was much less than our current situation.

Add to that, there’s no real support until lower levels. The decline’s free to continue, unabated.

Summary

This site’s primary focus is strategy. The longer term, the better.

Including the October 25th, 2020, report on the gold miners, we’re coming up on several other significant two-year anniversaries:

Bitcoin to Replace Gold?

Dollar Reversal; Ready

Corn Goes Vertical

Let’s not forget, ‘The Speck’, as we call it, was identified as a hoax well over two years ago; documented with this post.

The intuitive assessment of only partial data (at best) was, and probably will remain, the most important post of all.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

What ? … There’s No ‘Pivot’ ?

August 27, 2022 By in DIA, Dow 30, Holiday Turns, Jerimiah Babe, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

There Never Was

Well, another financial media lie has come and gone.

As Jerrimiah Babe says, time stamp 6:05, at this link:

“The good times are over.”

The Dow Jones was down over 1,000 points on the day and finished (along with the S&P, NASDAQ) right at the session lows.

Typical action for the markets under such conditions, is a follow-through at the next trading session, Monday.

Recall, it’s been presented many times on this site (Holiday Turns), major reversals tend to occur just before, during, or just after, a holiday week.

The 2008, countertrend reversal took place on the Monday (5/19/08), leading into Memorial Day Weekend. The big one in 1929, was the Tuesday (9/3/29) following the Labor Day Weekend.

The current reversal (discussed below), if it holds, has come a couple weeks early in the ‘holiday’ window.

It’s possible because of the massive size of this monster, that a week or two does not make a difference.

Let’s look at the Dow 30 and its perfect Wyckoff Up-Thrust, Reversal, and Test.

Dow 30, DIA Daily Close

Daily Close with Fibonacci retrace levels identified.

A close-in look on the reversal area.

Looking at the zoom-chart above, we had a Wyckoff Up-Thrust that touched 61.8%, then declined sharply before coming back to test at 50%.

After the test was another sharp decline. One can make the case, the up-thrust has been tested.

Continued (overall) downside is the higher probability with a ‘no Fed pivot’ providing the tailwind.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tech Talk, Biotech SPBIO

August 24, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-05, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, Tech Talk

Standard Fibonacci Test

If biotech’s reversing to the downside, then it’s behaving normally.

As we’ll see below, today was a standard 50%, Fibonacci retrace on the daily.

There’s an added bonus of 1 : 1, correlation on the corrective wave up to that 50%; shown on the hourly chart.

Just to get our bearings, we’ll present the longer time frame, the weekly below.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Next, we’ll get closer in on the daily.

Observe the Fibonacci retrace from the recovery high (8/11/22), the interim low (8/22/22), and today’s potential retrace high.

The next chart is a zoom of the retrace area

Bonus: Hourly Chart w/ Fibonacci Projection

Corrective waves follow an ‘a-b-c’ pattern with each having Fibonacci relationships between themselves.

The hourly chart below has the retrace from the 8/22/22, interim low.

The current location of the top of ‘wave c’, is a near perfect 1 : 1, ratio of the initial ‘wave a’.

The zoom chart below attempts to provide detail on where the wave terminations were identified.

The left blue arrow is the top of corrective wave ‘a’.

The right-side blue arrow is the bottom of wave ‘b’ and the beginning of wave ‘c’.

Summary

So, what does that all mean?

We’re at an inflection point.

If SPBIO has retraced 50%, of its initial leg down from a long term high, then expectations are for continued downside action.

The fact we had a countertrend move that mapped out a near perfect 1 : 1, a-b-c correction, points probabilities to the downside as well.

However, in the market, there are no guarantees.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279