If there’s any one interview that details what’s really going on, it’s this, link here.
The 48-mintue Kitco session with Bert Dohmen, is much needed straight talk.
It’s all there:
Official data is fake. Markets will (likely) ‘trap’ bulls with massive gap-down. It’s 1929 (again). Crypto is an illusion. Silver/Gold will correct (temporarily) along with the markets. We’re surrounded by bought off media. The population (masses) don’t think or can’t think.
Adding to that are ideas and sources discussed for years on this site, like ShadowStats having ‘real’ data on unemployment and inflation.
The list goes on.
With all that said, let’s look at one of the sectors (retail brokers), that could be hit hard during a surprise downturn.
Robinhood HOOD, Daily
It’s important to note, price action late Friday, began to pull away from the lows … rising into the close.
Just after that close, the announcement, HOOD made it to the S&P.
Wyckoff said a century ago:
‘Somebody always knows something. That ‘something’ shows up on the tape’
Well, there it is.
Was yesterday (the start of) a blow-off?
Froce Index (thrust) was the largest since the IPO, trading on August 4th, of 2021.
Price action is currently (as of 11:58 a.m., EST) retreating off the highs.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
So, here we are nearly on the eve of the most significant reversal, ever:
September 3rd, 1929
That is, maybe, until now.
Today’s downside action may turn out to be just a blip; much ado about nothing.
Or it could be the harbinger of a top. Maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).
Biotech sector XBI, appears to be losing steam while at the same time, being in up-thrust (potential false breakout) condition.
As of this post (12:10 p.m., EST), XBI is down -0.63%, and has posted a new daily low. Short position XBI-25-03, remains active (not advice, not a recommendation).
We’ll discuss this index and others over the long weekend.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Market reversals tend to occur just before, during, or just after a holiday week.
Is that where we are now?
Semiconductors (SOXX), and it’s chief cook and bottle washer, Artificial Intelligence (NVDA), may have already decided the next direction … down.
Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily
It’s just after the open and this is where we are.
“What do you see?”
Marking up the chart, we have a sell-short indicator (not advice, not a recommendation) right along with a hard stop location (as shown).
From yesterday’s update, those that watched the presentation by Robert Prechter Jr., were challenged with the idea, we’re in the largest bubble ever or at least since the 1720s South Sea Bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).
Positioning
In the sidebar, we can already see a short position was opened during last Friday’s session: SOXS-24-15 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Everyone has their own style and for me, I detest ‘chasing’ the market.
I’d rather make several attempts, get stopped out, then enter again, than watch the opportunity take off because I was too afraid to pull the trigger.
It’s only 20-minutes after the open and we can see the SOXX, is down hard.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
To minimize risk, you need to position at the psychological extreme.
That’s not necessarily the top or bottom of a move, but it could be.
At Opposite Ends
From a trading standpoint, this past week saw a lot of activity.
Trades entered, exited, some re-entered, some, not.
The net result was two positions in separate, non-correlated markets.
One was shorting the SOXX, via SOXS, the other, adding to longs in Natural Gas via UNG (not advice, not a recommendation).
Fake, Fraud & Thought Shaping
By far the main hysteria is in AI, and its cohort, the semiconductors, SOXX.
From my first trade way back in the spring of ’87, to now, I’ve never seen a mass psychosis mania, fueled by propaganda, lies and made-up numbers, like this.
One can only guess where or when the shoe will drop that starts the whole (mind-shaping) scheme unraveling.
Evidence Of A Struggle
When price action pushes above or below established resistance or support, it’s at The Danger Point®
When that happens, depending on the action itself, the risk of being wrong (on an opposing position) is lowest.
The SOXX may be there now.
Semiconductor SOXX, Hourly Chart
It’s clear, a battle’s going on between bulls and bears at resistance (blue line).
Just before, during, or just after a holiday week tend to be pivot points in the market.
Said many times on this site, the most famous of these was September 3rd, 1929, the Tuesday following the Labor Day Weekend.
That was the all-time high, just before the crash.
Positioning
There are two positions open, each with a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation)
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Unbeknownst to many, we’re witnessing a once-in-a-century opportunity and public service.
Those from the era of The Great Depression, are all gone now.
So, the same playbook can be run without anyone (alive) knowing we’ve been here before.
The public service presented to us, the massive on-going exposure of the financial charlatans and grifters.
You can be ‘certified’ and still be a certified (market) dolt.
Neil McCoy-Ward, points this out in his recent update linked here. Go to time stamp 8:40;
“Clueless” … “Completely Asleep”
Anyone who’s worked in the corporate world (in any sector), especially now, knows it’s near impossible to think or act independently.
So, it is with gold.
Gold & The Grifter Bandwagon
Where was everybody back in 2001, when gold was bottoming in the area of $270/oz., after a multi-decades long bear market (from 1980)?
The fact we have nothing but breathless panic from grifters and hangers-on, about rampant inflation should at least give one pause, we could be at a temporary or major reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
At least with the analysis below, there’s a decision point that will let us know if we’re due for another leg higher, or if there’s a Sovereign debt crisis about to break that would kick-off massive selling of all assets including gold.
Gold GLD, Weekly
As the title says, we’ve got something akin to a ‘Maginot Line’ for gold. What looks like insurmountable resistance that could still be breached … but for now, is holding.
With each (manufactured) crisis, gold’s momentum in the form of price and volume, is declining.
From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, the bulls (for now) are running out of steam.
The ‘terminating wedge’ in gold’s price action has already been discussed, link here.
Looking at the action in another light, we see a Wyckoff Up-Thrust in the works. Price action has penetrated a previous high and is currently struggling.
If gold (GLD) is able to significantly penetrate the resistance and hold, then we’re likely on to the hysterical predictions of the masses.
If not, and we get a reversal, it’s going to be big surprise for many. They’ll be stunned, unable to move and eventually provide more fuel for the downside as they sell in panic.
Downside Drivers
What could possibly be a downside driver for gold?
One has already been mentioned, a Sovereign debt crisis. It’s a likely event considering the record-pace rise for interest rates and subsequent bank failures.
Another is an ‘executive’ decision that gold ownership is outlawed. It’s happened in the past and those who got through that event are no longer with us.
Moving on, we’ve already been told there will be a ‘cyber-attack’.
What’s going to happen to gold, when there’s no electricity, fuel or food shipments?
As survivalist author Ron Foster says, in this interview, (time stamp 27:20), during a grid-down situation, he’s not giving up his food. He says, during such an event, precious metals are “meaningless”.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Provided many times on this site, the assessment we’ve gone straight past recession and directly to: ‘The Greater Depression’, or ‘The Great Depression 2.0’
By now, we’re all aware of this data, just out from ZeroHedge.
That data is at the ‘peak’ or the depths of 1932, and we in our current market, haven’t even got started!
The Fed’s interest rate announcement is due out at 2:00 p.m., Eastern, today; does it really matter?
We can see with unbiased observation; the wheels have already, irrevocably, been set in motion.
The economy along with the ‘elephant’ that no one talks about, are juggernauts on a downward course.
The 1929 Crash, Then Bull Rally
Remember, the big market speculators of the early 1900s typically made their fortunes on the way down (not advice, not a recommendation).
Let’s also not forget, one of, if not the largest market rallies up to that time (in percentage terms), happened right in the middle of The Great Depression.
Of course, to trade that mid-1930s rally, you had to have the capital to do so.
Which brings us to the next topic: Real Estate.
Real Estate IYR, Weekly
With yesterday’s new print high, we’re at Fibonacci Week 34. That puts us at a potential trading channel or inflection point as discussed in this post.
There’s no guarantee of a trading channel or even a reversal.
However, we do have a confluence of events; upside volume (pressure) declining, marginal new highs and the potential Fed pivot point, due out today.
It’s about 20-minutes before the open. Let’s see what happens next.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
There are nine other supplemental data points for the economic mayhem, collapse, collapse-in-progress scenario; they are listed at the end of this post.
For now, we’re talking about real estate and specifically the proxy for the sector, IYR.
Real Estate IYR, Weekly
As stated in the last post, we’re going to follow-up with a potential IYR, downside reversal by covering three more technical points; Fibonacci time correlation, thrust energy and trading channel.
First up: Last week completed a Fibonacci 34 (-1 week) time frame that may result in a reversal into a trading channel (shown on second chart).
Upward force (Thrust Index) declined significantly over the prior upward push during the week of 1/13/23.
The weekly chart has been compressed and trading channel lines added.
Internal trendlines are printed as grey dashed lines.
As shown, we’re at ‘Week 34 (-1)’.
If this market’s in reversal and adhering to a Fibonacci time sequence, we could see an immediate reversal or another minor high next week to make it an even 34 or go one additional week to make it 34 (+1) weeks.
Either way, we’re at The Danger Point®
The 1929 – 1932 Trading Channel(s)
Here’s a bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else.
Research and data gathered by my firm, has shown markets tend toreverse just before, during, or just after a Holiday Week.
In our case below, The 1929, all time high was 379.61, posted on September 4th; the Tuesday following the Labor Day Weekend.
The final low and subsequent reversal was 41.81, posted on July7th 1932; the Thursday following the July 4th Holiday:
There are at least three main trading channels in effect for the entire (nearly) three year down move.
Trading channels are an old and repeating characteristic of the markets.
Real Estate Re-Cap
The all-time high in real estate IYR, was 116.89, posted on December 31, 2021, the Friday before the New Year’s Weekend.
Since then, there have been several trading channels in effect; at this juncture, we may have yet another.
With the data links provided at the beginning and the links at the end of this post, sustained price action to the downside is more probable (not advice, not a recommendation).
This coming week is likely to be quite interesting as the Fed continues on its path of price and demand destruction.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Addendum
Congratulations on reading this far. You must be serious about your work. Supporting data for the bearish case is below.
At least, that’s what the media wants us to believe. The CPI is out, and ‘inflation’ has slowed.
The problem is, as Michael Cowan stated in this update (he’s done the work), from here, it does not matter what the Fed does.
The decline (crash) or whatever you want to call it, is baked in the cake.
Once deflationary forces start, it becomes a juggernaut.
The previous update on gold (GLD) showed in multiple time frames, upward thrust energy is dissipating; in at least one case, (weekly) it’s also divergent.
Now that we’ve had yet another blip higher, as expected, it’s rabid bullishness in the gold camp.
So, let’s look at what GLD, is actually doing. What does the market say about itself?
Gold (GLD), Daily
One thing is for sure; GLD, is at The Danger Point®
If GLD can’t hold above (and move above) this level, it may be in serious trouble.
Let’s look at it a different way … the terminating wedge.
A ‘wedge’ is typically the last pattern in a move up or down, hence the name.
As this post is being created (12:23 p.m., EST), GLD continues to decline from its open; currently sitting right at the resistance (potential support) level at the 168-area.
In a separate market, biotech SPBIO, has completely reversed its opening spike and is now posting lower.
We’re still maintaining the LABD-22-14 trade (not advice, not a recommendation).
Today’s CPI print and resulting price action, may be the kick-off to an overall sustained and persistent decline.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 