This article, just out, is one more data-point on where the next choke-hold will be applied … literally.
If you think about it, this could be the way precious metals are made irrelevant … just long enough for the ‘stackers’ to sell it all for food.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As the link above says, it’s almost ‘impossible’ to substitute.
Silver goes into nearly everything electronic.
Depending on whom you believe, the mainstream says the Future’s So Bright … right?
However, the charts say we may be headed much lower.
Remember the silver ‘short-squeeze’ and the little guy putting-it to ‘The Man’?
At this point, the only silver put around is on the little guy.
The Man’s going merrily along; short the sector that was so recently hyped with gold to “$3000 In Months, Not Years”
In Steven Van Metre’s latest update, he said no fewer than three times, the Fed ‘does not print money’.
It’s a false belief (by the public) they’re not about to change.
At the end if his video, he promised a report … or to make accessible his research on how that (not printing) is so.
Bringing us to the market at hand.
Silver (SLV)
Monthly un-marked chart.
The main thing to note above, SLV, is not at new highs.
In fact, at today’s price, SLV is down over 57%, from its all-time high set in April of 2011.
That in itself, should say there’s something wrong with the inflation, hyper-inflation, narrative.
Using a standard Fibonacci projection tool and tagging the 2011 high, the 2020 low, and the 2021, retrace high, we get the following:
It’s a little hard to see … so we’ll zoom in on the right side.
The 50%, Fibonacci projection, is somewhere between SLV: 9.00, and 9.50.
The premise for declining past 38% (around 13.70) and getting at least to 50%, is predicated on the collapse of the economy and subsequent evaporation of silver demand … at least from an industrial standpoint.
The precious metals ‘stacker’, discussed below, might become more interested in obtaining food than continuing to stockpile something that in times of famine, has very little use.
As Bjorn says in ‘famine’, come this spring, when the masses realize there will be no (or very little) food and/or you need ‘papers’ to buy food, market pandemonium (if not already) is the likely result; precious metals included.
When To ‘Stack’
So, when will be the time to acquire precious metals (not advice not a recommendation).
It’s deceptively simple; ‘When you don’t want to’.
The time to acquire an asset, is when nobody else wants it … including you.
Positioning short the gold miners GDX, was done when everybody and their dog was a manic bull; screaming an upside breakout was “imminent”.
As Prechter said, positioning opposite the herd involves overriding the limbic system of the brain.
It’s an intellectual (logic-only, thinking) process.
However, overriding the lower brain, i.e., going against the herd, is physically painful.
Excruciating, is a better description.
He went on to say, some of the best traders/speculators he ever knew, were former Marines.
Positioning
Coming up (most likely tomorrow) will be a chart showing positions opened in GDX inverse fund DUST (not advice not a recommendation).
There’s no obligation on this site’s part to reveal that information.
However, it will help explain how the market itself directed trading actions.
It will also show how the on-going reversal corrected several entry errors on my part.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
First, let’s start with the July 29th analysis of GDX. That update showed price action about to ‘Up-Thrust’ into a reversal.
The update even gave a possible high for the top of the developing set-up.
That high was in the area of GDX 35.65, near the 38% retrace level.
GDX topped-out at 35.82; then reversed.
The set-up chart is shown below and followed with the price action result:
And the result …
Pulling out to look at the weekly time frame, it’s clear, GDX is in a down-channel.
The magenta arrows show channel contact points:
Summary:
Gold and the miners are not showing hyperinflation at this juncture. It’s just not there.
Something else is going on.
As with the real estate index (IYR) not reversing as expected from collapsing retail purchasing (within established malls and elsewhere), gold and the miners are not moving decisively higher.
With real estate, It came out months later (after abandoning shorts on IYR) that Black Rock and others had been buying up whole sub-divisions … specifically from D.R. Horton.
With gold, it may be something else.
As proposed several times, the ‘controllers’ may make it irrelevant.
If you can’t get to the bullion dealer to either buy or sell, does it really matter if the metal’s in your possession?
This is a long-term game and this site’s in it for the long haul.
Each side making its chess moves. With that, it’s probably a good idea to review the standard plan of those on the other side.
Anecdote:
From a personal standpoint, as this post is being generated, there’s a Leghorn Rooster in a dog kennel cage (in my office) that’s been crowing for about two hours.
The same one (only much larger now) seen in this brief video.
Roosters are absolutely verboten in this neighborhood.
He started to crow decisively (collar or not) about a week ago; starting around 6:30 a.m.
He was not part of the plan. The five chicks were all presumed to be hens and his appearance was sort of an accident.
Several iterations later, which included sound-proofing the garage, he’s got his own set-up in my office.
It’s been about two and a half hours now and it looks like he’s done crowing. Soon, he’ll be off to check out the hens and be on with his day.
As a result of his arrival, we’ve changed our thinking: It may not be long before sentiment (to the food supply) changes instantly. It’s possible everyone at that time will be clamoring for their own livestock … crowing or not.
They’re no guarantees we’ll be able to keep him a secret (but God willing).
However, if he can be kept on the down low and then food supplies are cut off or severly curtailed, we’ll be more than happy to offer “Stud” services … for ‘small’ fee 🙂
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
‘The real money’s going to be made, after the plug is pulled’
Well, that’s close.
Actually, the real money’s made on the way down … when the plug is pulled … not after.
‘After’, is when you take the huge gains from the short side and then allocate that to areas which stand to recover … or at least have a good chance of recovery.
It’s a two-step process:
Nobody demonstrated that better than Livermore himself during the panic of 1907.
It’s probably no surprise that panic was potentially a fabricated event (sound familiar?).
Titanic engineering design approval: July of 1908.
Construction begins: March 1909.
Sea trials: Early April, 1912
Titanic ‘sinks’: April 15, 1912.
April 15th, is tax day … coincidence … no.
Whether or not there really is a ship (or which one is) at the bottom of the Atlantic, is immaterial.
What’s important, was that it all may have been a controlled demolition of the financial system so that it cold be ‘reset’ to allow fractional reserve banking.
The fly in the ointment? Unexpectedly, Livermore owned the market at the bottom. He could have single handedly destroyed the financial system by executing more short selling.
That’s when J.P. Morgan (possibly chief cook and bottle washer for the ‘reset’) called him in to appeal to Livermore’s ‘patriotism’; to not destroy the market. You can’t make this stuff up.
So, it’s time to reset the system every hundred years or so.
Just like it’s time to have a medical ‘incident’ and reduce the population every hundred years or so:
How does this relate to the markets? For this update, the preamble above, brings us to gold (GLD):
Gold (GLD) Analysis:
It’s no secret, price action in GLD and the miners (GDX, GDXJ), has been analyzed for months as bearish.
The weekly chart shows GLD, right at the edge of a terminating wedge; about to break lower:
The measured move … to around GLD ~ 120, is exactly at the Fibonacci 161.8%, projection (not shown).
If there’s a wedge breakdown, we have two separate measurement techniques targeting the same area.
Gold (GLD) did break lower but has not progressed to the measured move. Latest update is here and here.
The next chess move, is probably not going to be dollar destruction.
No. The next move is likely to be as stated before, supply chain shut-down with the objective of ‘starve them out’.
Correct but not the way the media plays it.
They attempt to tie it to ‘climate change‘. Yes, the climate is changing but the earth is getting colder, not warmer. Crop failures are the result.
Couple that with intentional weather modification (weaponization), controlled demolition of the supply chain and voila! Food becomes scarce or more expensive or both.
In a prior update, when that statement was made, it may have sounded extreme. Now, we have this interview and time stamp (8:11), where we get the exact same thing.
Take Action:
This article, just out on ZeroHege is a good one-stop shop to start or continue being out in front of ‘events’.
Here’s a brief video of one man’s action, in action:
Four hens, a rooster, in an urban setting (houses on three sides).
The rooster was not part of the plan. If you look closely, you can see his ‘No Crow‘ collar … it works most of the time.
He was unexpected but is now seen as an asset.
He keeps the hens under control (otherwise, they fight) and gets them all back in the coop at night.
Is it a hassle: Yes.
Is it messy: Yes.
Will the neighbors not care about the crowing, be clamoring (and paying with cash, gold, silver) for eggs and chicks three months from now, if/when food shipments are cut off? Probably, yes
Mass recognition of potential famine to come in the spring when the farmers do not have enough ‘inputs’ (seed, fertilizer) for a viable crop.
Don’t forget about no spare parts for farm equipment.
Scaboo
The rooster, “Scaboo” was such a happy camper that he was crowing all day.
He was moved outside of town to a more rural location.
We still have access to him if needed for fertilized eggs.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Price action spent about seven days in spring position before finally getting up enough energy to launch. The past two trading days have been essentially straight up.
Straight up that is, into known resistance.
This site’s not part of the hyperinflation crowd. It’s too easy to jump on the bandwagon, get the clicks and then say it’s all ‘manipulated’ when price action does not follow the narrative.
The (market) truth is and has been for a long time, gold and the miners are not yet confirming hyperinflation.
Buying gold/silver, gets more ‘clicks’ than buying food and showing everyone your freeze-dried plastic packs.
Since you have chosen to monitor this site, you have also made a choice to access information that’s not comfortable; information that may challenge (or even change) already held beliefs on how it’s all supposed to go down.
Case in point: With each passing day, it becomes more clear that food (Genesis 41) and the ability to create it, will come first as one storehouse of wealth.
Gold and silver will come … but only after nearly everyone has had it stripped from them (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of this post, GDX, is pushing through the resistance level shown in the chart.
How it behaves if/when it contacts the 38% level, will let us know if a downside reversal (up-thrust) is in the works.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Those getting that ‘uh-oh’ feeling with their precious metals hoard, being first to recognize the error (not advice, not a recommendation) may be out in front; liquidating to buy storable food, water filtration, protection and power.
Since there’s so much injection ‘resistance’ does anyone really think it’s over?
Next step, starve them out.
Taking a cue from the late Zig Ziglar; he would start his presentations by telling the audience the one that needs to listen most closely, the one who needs to heed (and follow) his advice most, was himself.
‘Walk the talk’ … which he did.
I personally have some silver … even some gold. However, I am following the Biblical (Genesis 41) standard of where we are (again, not advice, not a recommendation).
If I had a massive ‘stack’, there’s a risk I would begin to trust in the ‘riches’ themselves.
All that’s needed is some kind of ransom or cyber attack at major trucking centers to effectively shut down the food supply.
Its already happened with gasoline distribution … trucking companies would be child’s-play.
Here’s a presentation on just how quickly food becomes the main, if not the only consideration when supply lines break down.
The daily close chart of SLV, shows the possibility of a measured move lower to 18.0 – 18.50, area.
The caveat is, once a reversal like that gets going, the hyper–inflationists are going to get very nervous.
Then, if there’s another ‘infrastructure’ event, we could see a mass panic liquidation. The next chess move (food supply) would be obvious; the stackers would be ‘check-mated’.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
“You have to go where the food is as it wont be picked packaged or transported. Without food everything else is irrelevant.
The big “joke” is that people actually believe the plandemic is over when is is only just getting going, they have seen to that.
Normal is never coming back so the sooner people REFUSE to participate in what is being forced on us the faster we may have our lives back.
Unfortunately an overwhelming majority are not able to think for themselves and eventually lapse into insanity due to the psychological warfare they voluntarily watch every day.“
Link to the above quote (posted in the comments) is here.
Yes, ‘Without food … ‘ How’s that stack of silver coming?
If not, they may be about to come on sale in exchange for food.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Let’s use the images in that video and get deathly serious for a minute.
Imagine yourself walking up to one of the people in line, asking this rhetorical question:
“How’s that stack of silver?”
It’s no secret to anyone that’s been monitoring this site, we’re using the Biblical model (Genesis 41) for the current environment (not advice, not a recommendation).
That is: Corn and Grain (food) first … then gold and silver.
At first it seemed like a quaint alternative to the non-stop hyperinflation (no thought required) rants to continue ‘stacking’.
Now, it’s different. Now, it’s getting serious.
You won’t see that kind of line outside the bullion dealer.
Moving on to the markets at hand … once again, biotech:
LABD (SPBIO) Analysis:
After yesterday’s LABD behavior, the logical thing to do would be to put the stop at the session low.
After all, that low was just below the lows of the previous day. Good to go, right?
Wrong.
It’s wrong because that’s what everyone would do. It looks like from today’s action, that’s what everyone actually did.
Recall that price action is automatic.
If there are too many stops all bundled up at one location, the orders will (automatically) be generated to go that that spot.
LABD price action penetrated the daily lows at a deeper level early in the session.
In the process, it penetrated well defined support which in turn, puts LABD, in spring position.
That’s where we are now.
Springs are usually tested.
If price action can hold above the support boundary, expectation is for a rally to at least the top of the range: ~ 24.50 – 24.75
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The two hits on the right side channel line provide confirmation of the trend.
An expanded version of the daily is below:
So far, we’ve had the blockage of the Suez Canal. Auto parts being sent to the bottom of the ocean off Japan. ‘Mysterious’ grain silo fires destroying harvested crops.
If transportation is shut down as a result of cyber attack, fuel pipelines off-line, no grease to lubricate the wheels or any number of other (planned … and don’t think there’re not) events, the last thing that’s going to help get anyone through, is a ‘stack’ of inedible metal.
It’s no secret this site’s been using the Biblical precedent of Genesis 41.
That is: Grain and Corn come first … then gold and silver.
The ‘stacking’ public has got this message reversed. Of course, this is not advice or a recommendation.
However, for those that can see, it’s so obvious the goal is ‘controlled demolition’ of the supply chain. All of it.
We’ll put everything back to ‘normal’ if you just get injected.
Meanwhile, biotech IBB, and SPBIO, have both posted a new daily low.
IBB is poised to penetrate the resistance area identified in this update, and come back to test the wide bar.
If that happens, we have a Wyckoff up-thrust in play. More analysis of biotech to follow.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
No-one in the inflation camp wants to hear that … it’s uncomfortable to face the potential of being so wrong.
Albeit wrong in the short term but probably right later … after it’s too late. More on that farther down.
Just like the lazy (and complicit, we might add) financial journalist publishing the standard (speck blaming) propaganda for the day, so too are the hyper-inflationists, jumping on the most popular bandwagon in town.
Not even considering the potential for a retrace; admittedly, which could be short and sharp but significant nonetheless.
This site has presented several times, we’re in a situation similar to that of Genesis 41. It’s the corn and grain first … then gold and silver.
Just to back that up a bit before getting to the charts, we have the following:
Those so focused on stacking metals will likely be using that stack to pry much needed food, food staples, seeds and fertilizer out of the hands of those not willing to sell … at any price.
Why are the oligarchs not worried about the ‘little guy’ stacking metals?
Because there’re going to make it irrelevant … at least for just long enough to completely bankrupt, starve or ‘inject’ the middle class.
Moving on to the charts:
The title header said ‘big picture’. Here we are with monthly gold charts going back to the 1950s, time-frame.
It’s been a long … long bull market. It appears to have made a top at ~1,972 and is retracing … if only just a bit.
The second chart is the one that gives us pause. Consider the potential for a more substantial pull-back.
Markets like to retrace and test. It’s what they do.
That second chart is scary. It’s plain, the 760 – 780 area is a long time (monthly) support level that goes all the way back to 1980.
Absolutely no-one expects, or is planning for gold to get back to $800/oz, or lower.
Think of the irony. The ‘stackers’ (and maybe the rest of us), having to exchange actual money, gold and silver, for worthless fiat just so they/we can buy food to stay alive.
After the middle class stackers have exhausted their metals hoard, that’s when gold and silver will launch into the next bull phase.
It has been done this way (keeping the peasants under control), literally for millennia. The method works … why change?
Summary:
The intent here, is to at least recognize the possibility for the above scenario. It’s clear and becoming more clear every day, food is the weapon of choice.
The objective is to have enough food ahead of time; be in position to take advantage of once-in-a-lifetime metals prices should that opportunity be presented.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 