Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
For now, we’ll discuss only the technical aspects.
We’ll leave the rest of the truth for mainstream news.
Discussed previously, the sector (SPBIO) was left with our assessment that it may reverse higher into a retrace; combined with an up-thrust/reversal.
That was then.
Biotech, SPBIO, Now:
Daily un-marked chart of SPBIO:
Below, a marked-up chart showing penetration and move off support (Spring Condition).
Included, is the 38% retrace level … location for potential test and reversal:
As with the on-going reversal in gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, we’ll have to see how this plays out.
Unfortunately, as we head into what used to be the regular flu season, those who received ‘protection’, are going to find out they’re not protected at all.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The latest update from Steven Van Metre, has comments from the Fed that seem like they’re from another world, another time.
Evidently, the economy’s so strong … so good, that we might taper more aggressively and then … raise rates.
At this point, ‘what difference does it make?’
They’ve probably already cashed-out (like last time) and now stand on the sidelines.
Meanwhile back at the proletariat, we’re deciphering the market’s next moves … Fed press releasees notwithstanding.
Is Gold (GLD) The Black Swan ?
Frist off, there are several YouTuber’s that are providing an excellent service; letting us know the real state of the economy.
They are invaluable; thus, receiving their fair share of hate from those that don’t want to hear, see, or smell, ‘bad news’.
All of them willingly admit, they’re not experts when it comes to the markets … fair enough.
However, in Jerimiah Babe’s latest update, he may have unwittingly revealed a (or the) black swan.
Gold and the gold market.
JB’s offered the anecdote of attempting to purchase more gold at the dealer. For the first time ever, he was limited on the amount available.
From a market standpoint, the public, is all-in.
Even as we speak, gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, are in a vicious downside reversal.
At this juncture, it looks like an upward test of resistance (discussed yesterday) is nowhere in the cards.
Price action for the most part, is straight down.
Which brings us to the charts.
GLD, Weekly Chart:
Marked up with resistance and the up-thrust reversal.
Zoomed area of the reversal
Personal Opinion:
Because the gold hype by the financial press was so incessant for so long (which by the way, has strangely ‘disappeared’), this reversal may be something that lasts much longer than anyone would expect (not advice, not a recommendation).
Downside Targets:
The weekly GLD chart below has a Fibonacci projection tool overlay.
A 161.8%, projection would take GLD down to 119 – 120.
Are the gold bulls prepared for an extended downside rout in the metals?
Summary:
Early morning food production.
It might not look like it’s connected to the markets but it is.
Market analysis presented on this site, helps steer actions needed to separate from (or reduce reliance on) the system.
Properly executed, trading is one avenue to provide income that’s necessary to eliminate the need for a corporate employer (not advice, not a recommendation).
Market analysis also helps identify what’s likely to come next.
But, I digress.
Getting back to the coop; four eggs a day … equates to over two dozen a week. Reliance on the grocery store (at least for eggs) has effectively been eliminated.
About a year’s worth of feed has been stockpiled.
Let’s put it a little differently; a year’s worth of feed has been ‘stacked’.
Personally, I like gold and silver as much as the next guy.
However, those in charge of this collapse have already stated, food will be used as the leverage weapon.
But hey, we shouldn’t have to worry about any of that, because, ‘The future’s so bright …’
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Adverse moves in gold (GLD) like we have right now, especially after months of incessant hype, puts those who bought into the narrative on the wrong side; stunned, unable to move.
There’s a small chance, this could be a shakeout before going higher. Anything can happen.
However, if we look at the chart of GLD, it’s a grim situation for the bulls.
Gold (GLD)
Daily chart, GLD:
This wasn’t just a one-day push above resistance and then reversal.
GLD, spent a Fibonacci 8-Days struggling to break out before this morning’s collapse.
Stunned bulls may think it’s a buying opportunity. If so, there’s likely to be some kind of underside test of resistance.
However, that’s not guaranteed. Moves like this tend to offer no relief and just grind their way lower.
Positioning:
At this juncture, we’ve got a nasty adverse move; putting the short position (DUST) well in the green (not advice, not a recommendation).
Any upward test of GLD, and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, is likely to reveal new support/resistance boundaries and possibly trend-lines.
If so, we’ll have something to monitor for a potential exit signal.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
This trade could still fall apart for some unknown reason.
If it looks like the bulls are somehow re-gaining control, it will show up in the price action and we’ll exit accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The first part describes some technical details that are all true … after that, well, you decide.
Turns out, gold is going to skyrocket because of Russia !
I suppose, anything can happen.
We get fundamentals and anecdotal data as the reasoning for a Russia driven up-side breakout.
The problem with fundamentals is, they don’t work.
They never have worked.
Wyckoff discovered this a century ago when he said (from his autobiography) that ‘stocks move based on a power of their own. That power, has nothing to do with fundamentals.’
Trading genius Ed Seykota repeated that truth during his interview for ‘Market Wizards’.
He called them ‘funny mentals’ and went on to say he nearly, if not always lost money using them.
This article’s so good that I have to pay to read it.
From reading the shaded area, we can infer a similar (bullish) discussion to the first link above.
Sorry, not interested.
Summary
This time really could be different. Gold could launch into a sustained upward breakout.
However, the charts (GDX, GDXJ) at this juncture, are saying ‘not yet’.
Maintaining short (not advice, not a recommendation) via DUST … which is now in the green.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Now, that news is just starting to hit the mainstream.
They pretend like they’re not sure what’s it’s all about. So, let’s help them out with some facts.
Embedded within the article at this link, is an actual list of ‘strange anomalies’ that are occurring amongst the most athletically conditioned in the world.
If it’s happening with the athletes, it’s happening in the rest of the population.
Summary:
Early this session, Gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ have, or are testing their highs with inverse funds DUST and JDST testing the lows.
If this is a major transition from up to down for gold and the miners, this type of back and forth is normal.
Positions:
We’re still at the danger point but action can’t stay at these levels for too long. If it does, that would imply the bulls are gaining control and going to move the market to much higher levels.
Obviously, since we’re short (not advice, not a recommendation) via DUST, we’re on the other side of the gold bull trade.
A reasonable stop for DUST would be at, near, or just below yesterday’s low of 16.72 (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of this post, with DUST currently trading at DUST, 17.11, my firm’s position is down a modest – 1.82%.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Back in the day during the dot-com boom, fund managers were throwing in the towel (‘value’ fund managers, if memory serves) because the markets as they said, “did not make sense anymore”.
Valuations were insane and managers with decades of experience decided the time had come to exit for good.
Of course, it was a contrarian indicator. Those lofty valuations and prices were at or near their peak.
It was not long after when the market cracked. There was a rebound of sorts but the stage was set for a long bear market.
History Repeating?
This is a brief update to document two bear managers that are quitting in separate ways.
The other has exited short positions which included getting out of Tesla (TSLA) just before it rolled over.
These types of high-profile events usually happen at or near a significant top.
If the overall markets continue to grind higher, there may be similar retirements and/or fund closures.
Gold (GLD) Update
Before a market can reverse to the downside, it has to stop going up.
Sounds obvious but with the bullish hysteria on gold, coupled with non-stop inflation talk, it may take a while for the bulls to exhaust themselves.
We’re still at the danger point for GLD as well as the miners GDX, GDXJ.
Items of note for the session:
GDX had a double top (same high as Friday) and the inverse fund DUST posted + 0.01, above its own Friday low.
It could mean we’re at the extreme(s) with no more directional thrust or just a pause before continuing with the existing trend.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
That last one … is that like “The science is settled”?
To be fair, there is some truth in the articles. Prices are indeed rising. All types of costs are going up like food, gasoline and on.
Supply Restriction:
Here’s a strange bit of information from an unlikely source.
It turns out that copper (mining) supplies are being restricted in Minnesota. Go to time stamp 2:52, at this link and listen to the next 30-seconds.
Sure, it’s a data point of one but then again, what about all the talk of shutting down sources of oil production?
On it goes. This is supply restriction, not inflation.
It depends on what the definition of ‘inflation’ is.
Here we have one of the usual suspects parroting the now-accepted (but likely incorrect) definition of inflation. Go to time stamp 1:23.
I’m sticking with Robert Prechter Jr.’s definition of inflation and that is: Expansion of credit that causes increased spending that in turn causes demand to rise and then prices rise in turn.
Do we have expansion of credit now … or the destruction (or, soon to be) of credit? That’s called deflation.
Dollar … Still Not Dead
The dollar of course, is the wild-card.
Everybody’s expecting a collapse but darned if that’s just not happening. Actually, the opposite is taking place.
Now, all of a sudden it’s a “Contrarian Trade”. You can’t make this stuff up.
We’re coming up on the one-year anniversary of this post.
It postulated there was potential for a significant, medium-to-long term reversal in the dollar.
Getting The Picture
In a way, the dollar post and subsequent ZeroHedge one-year-later recognition of the obvious, define what this site’s all about.
As stated in the ‘About’ section, not every analysis works out. To borrow a quote from David Weis, ‘Sometimes I’m 100% wrong’.
Presented here are analysis, actions, course changes, attempting to maneuver through the largest economic and population collapse in world history.
The main focus is not to increase followership … although that is happening.
As the follower numbers increase, it’s a good sign that more are becoming aware of how manipulated and controlled is the entire narrative.
One way to separate from the effect of the falsehoods, is to become proficient at reading price action. As David Weis used to say, ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’
Which brings us to the current juncture. Gold
Gold, At A Crossroads ?
The current assessment of gold (i.e. bearish or reversal potential) is similar to the dollar from a year ago.
Different from the dollar, are the momentum (MACD, etc.) indicators … which are currently pointing higher.
In the dollar, there was a bullish weekly MACD divergence helping us along.
Not so with gold (GLD).
What we do have, and what the linked list above provides, is a look into a type of mass hysteria.
The ‘pegging the meter‘ article that came out late Friday caused only a blip higher in GLD and GDX.
If we’re at max persistent inflation already, is there any more upside left?
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As we’ll see in the charts below, gold (GLD) has pushed above resistance three times in the past.
Each time, GLD reversed.
Two of those had GLD print new post, 8/6/20, lows.
The average decline was -11.3%.
During that time, miners GDX, GDXJ, took the brunt of the action.
The last GLD draw-down (6/1/21 – 8/10/21), was about -10.2%, while GDX got whacked top-to-bottom with -28.2%.
At this juncture, miner’s downside price action looks to be leveraged by about 3:1, when compared with gold.
Gold (GLD) Analysis:
The un-marked chart:
The marked chart has the past three up-thrusts above resistance (magenta arrows) and our current potential; the orange arrow.
Note the typical distance price action traveled above the blue line resistance levels.
If GLD does not move any higher from this point, its current distance above resistance is typical when using the past three moves for reference.
Danger Point:
In the markets, anything can happen.
Price action in GLD and miners, GDX, GDXJ are each at their own danger points.
Counter-intuitively, this is where the risk of being wrong is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
Senior Miners, GDX:
Taking the hourly chart of GDX and inverting it, gives us a chart similar to inverse fund DUST but without the tracking (bias) errors.
The inverted hourly chart:
Net downward price action is narrowing; less and less downward progress with each thrust.
This is an indicator we may be nearing the end of the move.
Helping that assessment along, is the next chart. The circled area shows Force Index is also dissipating.
Today’s session thus far, has essentially no more thrust energy when compared to the last two sessions.
Summary:
Price action in DUST, has gone a little farther (lower) than desired.
However, the analysis above tells us there’s nothing, yet, that would indicate an exit of the short position (not advice, not a recommendation).
One has to remember who’s on the other side of this trade; that is, the bull side.
The general public has been led to believe inflation is rampant. The media and various YouTube personalities have whipped them into an inflation frenzy.
Its become some kind of psychosis
Costs are going higher. That part is true.
The reason they’re higher, or at least a different perspective, is available to everyone via Uneducated Economist and Steven Van Metre just to name two.
As Van Metre said about a year ago concerning the actions by the Fed (paraphrasing),
‘Do you think the Fed is going to educate the public and tell them Quantitative Easing is actually deflationary?
No, they will allow the public to have the false belief their (Fed) actions have the opposite effect.‘
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 