Category Archives: GLD

Gold Struggles to Close Gap

October 31, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Larry Williams

Inching Higher … Almost There

The ‘Commercials’ have left the party.

During this recent interview, long-time trader Larry Williams, says the ‘Commercials’, i.e., those who know their business, have left the party (time stamp: 17:30).

The chart itself, showed record breaking thrust higher followed by a swift down-move.

This week started with GLD, posting a gap lower.

At this point, it’s (still) trying its best to close that gap.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The Fibonacci levels remain on the chart.

Note the 50%, ‘correction’ level, from the last update.

If last week’s high really was a significant reversal, it’s a long way down to 50%.

The fact GLD is struggling to close the gap, provides some confirmation the miners are in the same boat; possibly worse (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s ‘Shocking’ Reversal

October 28, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, Dollar, Ed Dowd, GLD, Gold & Silver, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, Thoughtful Money, UUP 1 Comment

… And ‘Dollar Debasement’

‘When the trade gets a name, it’s over’. Ed Dowd

His assessment on the ‘dollar debasement’ trade, comments on gold, can be found here.

Gold dropped -50%, during the last melt-down, ’07 – ’08; it could do the same again (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, we’re looking at gold (GLD) from a strategic standpoint.

Meaning, it’s a long-term bull market, but where a sustained ‘correction’ may be at hand.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The trendline goes all the way back to the beginning of the GLD, fund.

Note the largest ever Force Index. Past similar actions either resulted in a sideways move, or reversal.

The Fibonacci projection tool, highlighted in magenta.

The projection levels are shown as blue lines. It’s clear, GLD is ‘respecting’ the levels.

A gold, GLD drop of 50% (from the 403.30, high), would put it at 201.65 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Margin Debt Increases

First, it was $1 Trillion.

Now, it’s $1.13 Trillion; discussed here.

While everyone’s looking for A.I. to burst (including this site), maybe the precious metals are going first.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Uber … The Wheels Come Off

October 16, 2025 By in Banking, Ed Dowd, GLD, Gold & Silver, KRE, Positions, SLV, TRV, TRV-25-01, XLF, XLF-25-08 1 Comment

Waiting for The Close

Something’s happened to the banks, XLF, KRE; both down hard.

Gold, GLD has launched parabolic, typical of blow-off moves.

Meanwhile bonds are higher (Ed Dowd told us to watch those), insurance companies hit and then, there’s Uber.

Uber, UBER, Daily

Uber at all-time highs for weeks before breaking down.

It’s now penetrated support.

There’s likely to be an attempt to ‘spring’ off that penetration (expected to fail).

If it’s going to happen, watch the close.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Early Session: Biotech

September 19, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-12, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XBI

Repeating Pattern

The graphic at left, is a segment of biotech tracking ETF, XBI.

Note how it exhibits a repeating pattern of spring-to-up-thrust (S & U).

Today is also Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from the ‘S’ labeled low.

As seen with gold GLD, slightly higher, not correcting immediately, anything can happen.

However, with XBI, we’re in a multi-year downtrend that may be finishing its countertrend move, ready to up-thrust and reverse lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Correction Coming

September 19, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-14, Positions 3 Comments

Measured Move

We’re there now.

The chart below, shows a (potential terminating) wedge with measured move.

Tracking fund GLD, has met the wedge target.

As always with the markets, anything can happen.

Gold GLD, Weekly

If gold (GLD) does correct, even just a little, it’s likely to hit the miners, GDX, GDXJ as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners & CrowdStrike

July 2, 2025 By in CRWD, DUST, DUST-25-05, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions

A Tale of Two ‘Set-Ups’

When looking at the price action of Senior Miners, GDX, you get the sense, ‘it had to be this way’.

That is, the only way to get up enough energy to close the gap shown below, was to have two successive (lower) ‘spring’ attempts.

Senior Miners, GDX, Daily

Yesterday’s action closed the gap.

What comes next is unknown, but we do have a ‘line in the sand’; that is, if miners (and gold) are to continue on a potential ‘hyperinflation breakout’, then, GDX must post a new daily high above yesterday’s 53.04, at some point.

Either way, Hard Stop of DUST-25-05, at 23.69 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, on to CrowdStrike.

CrowdStrike, CRWD, Daily

Yesterday’s action was ‘outside-down’.

We’re right at resistance, that will become support if CRWD, is able to rally from here.

If not, and CRWD posts (consistently) below resistance, then we’re at the top edge of a rising wedge pattern that’s been forming since July, of last year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Car Questions Answered, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, SLV, UNG, WMT, WMT-25-03

Bonds & The Economy

Not getting much attention in the media yet, is what looks like a slow (nascent), upside reversal, of long-bonds.

Here’s an excellent description of what’s going on with the yield curve, link here.

However, there’s one potential error (depending on data used), in the link above, the job market.

Real unemployment numbers can be found here.

It says, we’re already at ‘depression era’ levels of 25% unemployment.

If anyone’s skeptical of alternate numbers, the official numbers have already been proven to be ‘in-question’.

One of the best examples of ‘official’ data, or lack thereof, is this report.

What’s a million jobs or so, between friends. 🙂

With mass layoffs starting, also, here and here, that 25% number above, is likely to increase significantly.

We can even add some anecdotal evidence, link here.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

The price action of the market itself, is telling us where to go for opportunity.

Upside may still be there, if one wants to position in the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, for over eighteen months, this site’s been profitable only positioning to the short-side (UNG, the exception) and sees no reason to join the crowd buying into the A.I. mania (not advice not a recommendation).

The current focus is on WMT, a sleeper, not-doing-much, for years, that may be about to get interesting.

Currently short as WMT-25-03, with stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Breaks Trend … Down

June 28, 2025 By in David Weis, GLD, Gold & Silver, One Way Pockets, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Spike Lower, or Long Term?

Seven weeks ago, was this post, giving a ‘heads up’, gold (GLD), had just printed massive upward thrust energy.

A print like that, happened only once before, near the 2011, top.

From that top, GLD, traded in a range for over a year before heading into a sustained decline.

That decline lasted three years, GLD down -46%.

So, here we are. 🙂

We’ve posted massive upward thrust energy seen only once before, a potential top, sideways action for just over two-months; then, trend breaks down.

Sounds about right.

Now, all-of-a sudden, professionals may be selling (or set, to sell), link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold GLD, Daily Close

We’re going to look at GLD, a bit differently. That is, the repeating pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Human psychology does not change.

Buying on the way down.

From ‘One Way Pockets’, first published in 1917, the author had access to client accounts, analyzing their behavior over bull and bear cycles.

From his findings:

Once a stock had reached its peak and started a long decline, that’s where most of it was ‘handed out’. Sold to the public as it was moving lower … then, lower, still.

Wyckoff seconds this truth; ‘those on the wrong side of the trade, provide (most of) the fuel, for the way lower’.

Short Term, Long Term, or Not at All

As this update presented, we’ve had a potential top indication for GLD that’s only happened once before.

The last time, it was over four years before GLD, bottomed and started the next bull run.

It’s impossible to know if this time is different.

However, price action itself, will tell us the next probable direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont’s Breakout Fails

June 25, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-04, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, NEM, Positions, Up-Thrust

Long Awaited

Yesterday, Newmont was hanging on, trying to post higher after its failed breakout.

Today, could be the day where it continues down (not advice, not a recommendation).

With about thirty minutes before the open, NEM is trading slightly lower.

Newmont Mining, NEM, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

Note how the ‘wide high-volume bar’, has been tested. It took eight months to do it, but it happened.

Gold (GLD) is still near all-time highs, yet Newmont, is far below its all-time high; about -33%, (from April 2022).

Currently short this sector via DUST, as DUST-25-04, with stop at or near yesterday’s DUST low of 24.69 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 22, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-05, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, GLD, Gold & Silver, Positions, WMT, WMT-25-02, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Gold’s ‘Rally Fatigue’

If there ever was a reason for gold to launch massively higher, huge gap-up open, you’d think it would’ve been yesterday’s bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, right?

Seems like gold, currently trading slightly higher (up just +0.19%), now threatening to go negative, may be tired of the never-ending ‘sky is falling’ narrative.

The overall public does not (or refuses to) recognize, ‘narratives’ are part of the deception, part of the manipulation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wyckoff said it over a century ago, ‘Until you can ignore the news entirely, you will never be successful in the markets’.

Of course, gold could rally from here. Anything can happen.

However, we need to recognize, gold (GLD), is not all that far away (just 1%) from the level discussed in this update.

Strategy First

Trying to ‘figure it all out’, is not the essence of Wyckoff analysis.

Wyckoff attempts to determine the ‘what’ of the markets, not the ‘why’.

With that, there are three open positions: all of them short (not advice not a recommendation):

CVNA-25-05, CRWD-25-05, and WMT-25-02

Tomorrow (Monday) pre-market, an update is planned for short-covering exits (if any) and stop levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279