Run fast … or, Not at all

3:48 p.m., EST

Biotech ‘Gut-Check’

One of Dr. Elder’s admonitions was: ‘Run fast or not at all’ when confronted with retracing price action.

The trade plan from months ago, concerning the biotech short (not advice not a recommendation), was that potential for collapse was so great, the trade was going to be maintained (and increased) until it either worked out for profit or the price action was so obvious that ‘now, was not the time’.

If there ever was a time in the past five-weeks for SPBIO bulls to take back control, this is it.

However, to prove they’ve got the upper hand, inverse fund LABD would have to make a new weekly low … at least.

That (low) has yet to happen.

The inverse LABD tape is a sea of red and purple; at the bid, below the bid, mass selling … having the look of capitulation by the bears.

It’s possible we’ll know more over the next few days.

At this juncture, LABD price action is testing a support-boundary area while also testing the right side weekly trend line.

Marked charts are below:

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The CDC, The PCR, and Biotech

12:20 p.m., EST

ZeroHedge picks up the story

As if on cue, ZeroHedge has just posted this article which covers the No. 1 bullet item from yesterday’s ‘Random Notes’.

It’s typically not the article that’s of major importance but the comments.

A screen-shot of comments with a series of links from that article, are below:

ItsAllBollocks13 hours ago

Why isn’t anyone mentioning the WEF? It’s all there in Claus Schwab’s book called the Great Reset, can’t anyone read anymore?

https://straight2point.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/COVID-19_-The-Great-Reset-Klaus-Schwab.pdfplay_arrow13play_arrow

Mister E11 hours ago

excuse me but people post about the WEF here all the time, are you new?play_arrow7play_arrow

Not Your Father’s ZH34 minutes ago (Edited)

Yeah, right? I and others have posted many times about the not-so-Great Reset, Cyber Polygon, Event 201, Herr Unkle Klaus Schwab’s Chez Davos broiled insect loaf under polystyrene, owning nothing and being thrilled, etc. Whitney Webb has been one of the best reporters on it, Catherine Austin Fitts, many more. Lew Rockwell is the single best place to start from, as it links to all of this. Speaking of which:   7.9 Billion Lives in the Balance

The Covered-Up Crimes of Vaccine-Maker Pfizer – Just Another “Too-Big-To-Fail” American Corporation

Joe Biden Spreads Vaccine Misinformation Live on CNN to Millions of Americans

CDC Panel Signals Support for Booster Shots, as Reports of Injuries, Deaths After Covid Vaccines Near 500,000

‘Every Solution Except the Vaccine Has Been Suppressed’    We Live in a Fraud of Unprecedented Dimensions

How To Get Ivermectin      Ways To Take Action     Child Abuse       https://www.technocracy.news/

Bombshell lawsuit: Gov’t whistleblower says coronavirus vaccine deaths at least 45,000

47 studies confirm ineffectiveness of masks for Covid and 32 more confirm their negative health effectsplay_arrow3play_arrow

It’s obvious those monitoring and commenting on ZeroHedge are wide awake.

Once again, all of this brings us back to biotech.

Biotech, SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:

We’re going to start with an unmarked chart of inverse fund LABD, on the weekly scale:

It may not be obvious at first, but the chart can be separated in two as shown:

That inflection point, the week of May 14th, ’21, is where the bulls attempted a reversal and the bears (of SPBIO) are going to take control.

Notice that before May 14th, price action is wide and choppy. Afterwards, it settles down into a clean and rythmic flow.

From that inflection, LABD price corrected downward a Fibonacci 8 weeks before pivoting to the upside (SPBIO lower).

Now, we can draw a trading channel:

For months, the anticipated low of SPBIO, high for the LABD trade (not advice, not a recommendation) was/is planned to be the third week in October.

As price action progresses, and taking a cue from Robert Prechter (about trading for large gains), one needs to be prepared for SPBIO to just keep on going lower (LABD higher); even through October if that’s the case.

Summary:

The ZeroHedge article and especially the comments, show we’re in the middle of the largest fraud in world history.

It’s disappointing but not surprising, ‘certified’ management agencies (and I personally monitor quite a few) are saying nothing (publicly) about what’s really going on.

Their websites still show the ubiquitous sailboat with the retired couple looking out wistfully into the (chem-trailed) sunset.

Trading For Your Life:

With each passing day, it’s becoming obvious self-employment (like trading) may be the only way out. The big corporations are likely to mandate (illegally) en-masse, that everyone’s injected.

The plan to destroy the smaller businesses looks to be moving forward via more ‘lockdowns’.

Some states (like Texas) may somehow be separate. So far, so good.

The other states, not so much.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The usual suspects for the week.

No. 1

You can’t make this stuff up.

CDC declares PCR test unsuitable for identifying ‘The Speck’.

For those new to this site, it’s called ‘The Speck’ (to avoid censorship, and) as a spoof from Horton Hears a Who … the speck on the clover

The speck on the clover represents how big the supposed ailment really is … virtually non-existent.

Back to the CDC.

Screen-shot of website, below:

Actual link to the website, is here.

Turns out Dr. Coleman was right (never doubted him). It’s just the re-branded, seasonal flu.

One more brick in the wall for biotech.

No. 2

You’re going to need a root cellar.

The No. 1, item shows the wheels already set in motion.

If the available data is even half-correct (pathogenic priming), it will be years, if not decades before the oscillations from this event dampen out.

So, it’s prepare for the long game.

Here are two links (here and here) describing effective, low cost root cellar designs.

No. 3

Here we go again.

It’s back to Mask on, Mask off and what the ‘experts‘ say.

What variant are we on now … Epsilon?

No. 4

Quote of the week:

You have to go where the food is as it wont be picked packaged or transported. Without food everything else is irrelevant.

The big “joke” is that people actually believe the plandemic is over when is is only just getting going, they have seen to that.

Normal is never coming back so the sooner people REFUSE to participate in what is being forced on us the faster we may have our lives back.

Unfortunately an overwhelming majority are not able to think for themselves and eventually lapse into insanity due to the psychological warfare they voluntarily watch every day.

Link to the above quote (posted in the comments) is here.

Yes, ‘Without food … ‘ How’s that stack of silver coming?

No. 5

Think like a Texan

J.P. Sears, shows us how it’s done.

No. 6

Bartering?

If it gets to bartering, Glenfiddich is the most recognizable and available 12-yr old Scotch.

No. 7

Administering The Mark

If it really is the mark, it’s nice to see ‘the church’ has become so deceived (and vile), they are helping lead the effort.

The video above, shows someone that’s collapsed just after injection; right on the steps of ‘the church’.

“And then will I profess unto them, I never knew you: depart from me, ye that work iniquity.”

Time stamp 0:02 at this link confirms the location.

No. 8

Let them eat trash

Incompetence runs the city.

Brokerage firm Schwab’s headquarters has officially pulled out of San Fran for Dallas … anyone else left?

If we’re really in the first stages of ‘balkanization’, it’s clear that Texas will be a major player.

No. 9

The one difference between ‘Conspiracy’ and fact, is ‘Time’.

No. 10

Food prices surge … supply chain about to break (if not already).

At time stamp 8:49, J.B. reports that food prices in Lebanon have increased 670%, in about two years.

Coffee futures moving up as a result of crop failures in Brazil.

If you already have precious metals … great.

If not, they may be about to come on sale in exchange for food.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Livermore, Wyckoff, & Loeb

Buffett’s not on the list

After thirty-four years of researching the markets, focus has narrowed to three masters from the early 1900s; providing a solid framework for addressing the markets of today.

More detail on these masters can be found at this link.

Summarizing their knowledge as follows:

Strategy, Tactics, & Focus

This update demonstrates how those tenets are being implemented.

Strategy:

In Livermore’s fictional autobiography (Reminiscences), he muddled around for years before identifying his niche.

That is:

‘What’s going to (or what’s likely to) happen in a big way.’

That insight has been used to identify the biotech sector as ripe for complete (and well deserved) implosion; more so than any other sector in the market.

For many months, the case continues to build for collapse.

Here’s just one more brick in the wall; providing even more support for implosion.

Tactics:

Wyckoff committed his entire professional life to decoding the market and its moves.

He is (as far as available data shows) the father of technical analysis.

Terms like ‘support’, ‘resistance’, ‘accumulation’, ‘distribution’, did not exist before is treatise, “Studies In Tape Reading”, published in 1910.

His bottom line:

Price is moved by a force of its own; having nothing to do (in a causal way) with fundamentals:

‘What is the market saying about itself.’

The biotech sector SPBIO, is tag-teaming with gold miners GDX (and GDXJ), for downside leadership.

SPBIO finished the week down -27.5%, from its February 9th (2021) high; running a close second to GDX, which finished the week down – 27.6%, from its August 5th (2020) high.

From a speed-of-decline standpoint, biotech’s in the lead.

Focus:

Loeb’s brutal admonition was: ‘The naïve, lazy, mediocre, ignorant and the incompetent “diversify”.

His follow-on corollary was: ‘Real market opportunities are few. If one is discovered, it must be used to its maximum extent.’

Loeb’s assessment of those in the market, is not much different from Wyckoff’s:

“The average man never makes a success of Tape Reading.

Right you are! The average man seldom makes a success of anything.” (emphasis is Wyckoff’s).

From the above list, ignorance can be fixed through determination, study, tenacity and the never-ending search for (market) truth.

The others, not so much.

Using Loeb’s tenet, that is, ‘focus’, we’ve taken it and have gone short and continue to go short (not advice, not a recommendation), the biotech sector via LABD.

Summary:

There’s no guarantee the short trade will work out; yielding a significant gain.

Any number of things can happen:

Internet outage, power outage, terrorist attack, supply chain and transportation shut-downs … literally, anything.

However, being short (from a personal standpoint) is better than wringing one’s hands, cowering in fear, looking to the (bought and paid for) financial media to provide direction on what to do in this unstable environment.

Epilogue:

By using the life’s work of Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb, its been determined, being short biotech (and possibly the mining sector) is the appropriate market stance.

With the caveat that even now, one might need to exit the trade; it still appears at this juncture, the on-going short (not advice, not a recommendation) is the most focused profit opportunity given the current environment.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech, The Case for Reversal

3:10 p.m., EST

Inverse fund LABD, Thrust Energy analysis

Upside hourly bars have increasing thrust energy.

The lower portion of the chart has Force Index widened to better show detail

The numbers are relative; showing increasing energy on hourly upward thrusts.

Downside energy is dissipating

Probability is high for LABD upside reversal; not advice, not a recommendation

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

S&P 500, Head & Shoulders Top?

11:40 a.m., EST

Potential Head & Shoulders

The hourly chart above shows the potential.

A pull-back to the hourly low (434.07), gives additional confirmation to the nascent reversal.

In the biotech sector, SPBIO is currently pulling away from the 38% retrace discussed yesterday (LABD higher).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Now, It’s A Depression

3:43 p.m., EST

Recession’s over … Depression starts

Boots on the ground update from Dan at ‘I Allegedly’.

Drastically reduced economic activity at premium retail locations.

From Uneducated Economist: There’s news the lumber mills are going to curtail production … right in the middle of summer … the high season.

Couple that with the strange ‘going’s on’ reported at this link concerning the database that’s being monitored.

Then, we have another strange ‘coincidence‘ that takes place every hundred years like clockwork.

Which brings us to the sector at hand: Biotech

SPBIO Analysis:

We’ve taken the hourly chart of biotech SPBIO, and inverted it; shown below:

Price action pushed through the spring set up conditions noted in the last update.

SPBIO went on to retrace to the 38%, level … where it is now.

Looking at the price structure of inverse fund LABD (not shown), the downward thrust energy on a daily basis has declined significantly.

That analysis to be forthcoming.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Unprepared

1:57 p.m., EST

South Africa Food Lines

The video at this link paints the picture.

Let’s use the images in that video and get deathly serious for a minute.

Imagine yourself walking up to one of the people in line, asking this rhetorical question:

“How’s that stack of silver?”

It’s no secret to anyone that’s been monitoring this site, we’re using the Biblical model (Genesis 41) for the current environment (not advice, not a recommendation).

That is: Corn and Grain (food) first … then gold and silver.

At first it seemed like a quaint alternative to the non-stop hyperinflation (no thought required) rants to continue ‘stacking’.

Now, it’s different. Now, it’s getting serious.

You won’t see that kind of line outside the bullion dealer.

Moving on to the markets at hand … once again, biotech:

LABD (SPBIO) Analysis:

After yesterday’s LABD behavior, the logical thing to do would be to put the stop at the session low.

After all, that low was just below the lows of the previous day. Good to go, right?

Wrong.

It’s wrong because that’s what everyone would do. It looks like from today’s action, that’s what everyone actually did.

Recall that price action is automatic.

If there are too many stops all bundled up at one location, the orders will (automatically) be generated to go that that spot.

LABD price action penetrated the daily lows at a deeper level early in the session.

In the process, it penetrated well defined support which in turn, puts LABD, in spring position.

That’s where we are now.

Springs are usually tested.

If price action can hold above the support boundary, expectation is for a rally to at least the top of the range: ~ 24.50 – 24.75

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech … Chess Game

2:00 p.m., EST

Force Everyone Out

Then, Go

With each adverse move (for the shorts), the case for biotech downside reversal builds.

You would think, with announcement of lawsuit field in Anaheim CA, stating 45,000 are confirmed dead (via ‘official’ sources) from injections, it would have caused a massive drop.

There was an initial gap-lower open for SPBIO with LABD, opening higher … but then what happened?

Price action went all the way down (for LABD) to the prior session low. That low was then penetraed by just 0.04-points.

That’s just enough to clear out tight stops, novices and short-term traders; all in one shot (no pun intended).

The fact LABD price action immediately rebounded from the lows, now trading higher, indicates possible trend line verification.

LABD (SPBIO) Analysis:

The LABD daily chart (above) has potential right-side trend verification happening now.

Price action cleared out the stops and hit the support/resistance boundary (dashed magenta line) simultaneously.

The weekly chart below, has one potential move:

Many “Ifs”

If we’re verifying the right side of a trend line and if that trend line is actually part of a channel and if LABD price action is pivoting to the upside, then we’ve got a potential trade (not advice, not a recommendation) that might culminate during the third week of October when markets typically bottom out.

So, we’ve got three “ifs”, one “then”, one “potential”, one “trade”, one “might” and one “typically”.

That sounds reasonable 🙂

On the plus side, there’s not yet been a serious upside move in SPBIO, that would negate the downside potential.

Fundamentals are coming out by the day if not the hour. Whether or not it’s all controlled opposition is unknown to us in the proletariat.

We’re not counting on legal action but price action itself.

That action continues to say that biotech is sub-dividing lower with LABD higher.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Separating From The Crowd

Work and think in isolation

Intuition does not ‘collaborate’

If you’re serious about your growth with market analysis and trading, at some point in the journey, you’ll discover this fact:

The most successful and effective market speculators operate alone.

Livermore had his office with the ticker, ‘board boys’, and not much else.

Wyckoff (from his autobiography) refused over and over the overtures of his wealthy clients to establish a more personal relationship.

The late David Weis was the same; managing his own account.

One difference with him; he provided a mentoring service that passed on his valuable insight.

It was a steal of a price (back in 2011) … just $1,500.

Personal Anecdote (being mentored by Weis):

It was April, of 2011:

As Weis interviewed me on the phone, asking all sorts of questions about my background (engineering), my parents (my late father, a Yugoslav national, shot by Germans in an attempted execution during WWII), and my trading objectives, it became clear to me, I would pay whatever price necessary to gain an audience with him.

This all took place before his website was complete and before his book was published. It was sort of a ‘golden time’.

Stretched Growth:

Weis traded the futures markets. If I was to be mentored by him, I would need to get up to speed and trade futures as well.

I knew almost nothing (except they were highly leveraged) about those markets. However, I was determined to learn very quickly.

During the phone interview, which lasted maybe forty minutes to an hour, he did not mention (and I did not ask) the cost of his services.

As the call progressed, I was literally getting sick with anticipation.

Coming to a close, almost absentmindedly, he said: ‘It’ll be $1,500’.

I fully expected him to say, and would have gladly paid $5,000 or more … which was the going rate for a typical trading course.

He then ‘suggested’ that I open a futures account; our mentoring sessions would start the next week.

Fast Track:

After that call, three things happened in quick succession.

First: A check (he was old-school) was mailed off to him in Boston so that it would clear before the next week.

Second: I contacted TradeStation and got their futures paperwork to open an account. That happened quickly and $15,000 (an amount suggested by Weis), was wired to the account.

Third: Buy the time of the first session, I already had the futures account set up and had determined what markets I would be trading: The LIFFE mini-futures (now part of ICE Futures Europe) for gold and silver.

On The Fly:

One last thing about trading futures and learning quickly.

I noticed about two weeks into trading silver, the volume on the contract I was in, started to drop off.

I did not understand why the liquidity was drying up … that is, until I checked my e-mails.

Turns out, I was about to ‘take delivery’, and pay $37,000 for a bar of silver if I did not exit the contract (that day).

The entire time with Weis was a growth experience. Very painful most of the time as knowledge had be acquired on the spot.

During our sessions, I would have the phone to my ear and be feverishly taking ‘screen shots’ of his computer (via gotomeeting,com) as he progressed through the session.

This link is probably as close as one will come to a typical mentoring session.

No Group Consensus:

Going to the link and watching for even a few minutes, it’s obvious this type of analysis is in a class of its own.

Nowhere in the video does he mention P/E ratios, Sales-to-Book or any number of useless metrics.

Deciding to pursue this type of trading, will of itself, separate you from the crowd.

The mainstream financial press will never present this level of detail. The general pubic does not have the intellectual capability or discipline to really get down and craft this skill.

Of course the financial media, YouTuber’s and the like, are all too happy to cater this (mediocre) crowd by showing their supposed prowess on dissecting financial reports and/or pontificating on the latest Fed speech.

Little does the public know, this type analysis (fundamental metrics) is just a ruse; a distraction promulgated over the life of the markets to distract and disable the masses.

The fact that ruse keeps going, is proof in itself of its effectiveness.

Which brings us, once again, to biotech.

SPBIO (LABD): Analysis

In this case, which could be one of a kind in history, the fundamentals are important.

Those in the biotech sector have intentionally (depending on whose data is used) fatally poisoned millions if not billions.

Their natural immune systems have been forever destroyed and their life expectancy drastically shortened.

Even so, this fundamental backdrop must not cloud interpreting the market behavior at hand and the Wyckoff analysis.

We’ll start as Weis does in the video link, with an un-marked chart. Daily close of inverse fund LABD:

Next we’ll show how the right side action is alternating its behavior:

At this juncture, the market is not able to retrace.

Price action from the last intermediate low in late June, has formed a double, then single, and then no bottom.

Adding in the repeating trendline study, LABD is currently near a contact point on the right side trend:

Price action itself points to more downside for SPBIO (LABD higher).

With the overall markets closing poorly on Friday, the implication is for lower action in the coming week.

Consumer All Done:

The post on Friday, showed how the consumer is literally spent.

About an hour later, Steven Van Metre came in with additional details.

Then, couple that with Dan’s (iAllegedly) assessment: “The Party’s Over”; the pressure continues to build.

We might take the example of lumber futures as a model for upcoming price action; essentially, straight down -66.3%, in 48 trading days.

Wistful Conclusion:

David Weis is now gone (passed away last year).

After listening to his voice once again, I have let it personally admonish me to remain focused and diligent.

Even a decade after our mentoring sessions, with focused effort, the search for mastery is never ending.

To borrow a quote from Oswald Chambers: “One must determine to be limited and focus their affinities.”

We’re at a critical time in world history and that’s not overstated.

Our conditions have brought so many cowards to the fore.

In a way, it’s a tremendous public service.

It’s clear to see who is leading and who is cowering in place.

If anyone has a hope of surviving (even prospering) in this environment, for some it will be taking control of their own market decisions; separating themselves from those who want them to remain ignorant.

Stepping out into the raw edge of life, has no guarantee of success.

However, what is guaranteed, is stretching of oneself into a new level of thinking, experience, and wisdom.

That, is its own reward.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.