Category Archives: Positions

Elephant In The Room

September 30, 2021 By in Biotech, I Allegedly, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, Positions, Project Stimulus, Texas Silver 16 Comments

Mid Session

… It’s Already Here

Nearly simultaneously, all three YouTube channels that are monitored closely, have shifted their focus.

This phenomenon, instant change among disparate parties, has been well documented in the science community (before that community became corrupt) with animals on separate continents.

In short, it was found that herds of animals would instantly change their behavior to be congruent with each other even though there was no direct visible or physical connection.

It’s sort of a ‘collective consciousness’ phenomenon.

The YouTube presenters being discussed are:

I Allegedly

Jerimiah Babe

Texas Silver

Dan (I Allegedly) has literally thousands upon thousands of contacts. He’s an invaluable source of information.

He also has the stamina to sit through a Fed speech, Senate or Congressional hearings and the like … then report on what’s being discussed.

Jerimiah Babe gives us ‘boots on the ground’ reporting about the economic collapse so that we can see it for ourselves.

Texas Silver has the warrior mentality (and is not some coward ‘poser’ with useless crap all over his AR), showing us a working homestead and all that’s involved.

Their instantaneous shift in direction is being highlighted; not the importance of their channels which remains at the high end.

From a physical standpoint (like the animals separated by continents) they are not physically connected to each other.

Pulling Away From Precious Metals

Yet, all three have pulled away (in varying degrees) from the ‘stacking’ mentality.

Admittedly, Dan was never really a stacker … but he has changed direction; now talking about procuring supplies, food, water, medicines.

Be aware, there may be yet another collective shift (this time, world-wide) on the horizon.

Festering in the background, is an event that won’t be able to be ignored or dismissed as ‘conspiracy’ much longer .

It’s important to get out in front (if you aren’t already) and position oneself accordingly.

Which brings us to the elephant.

Biotech, SPBIO:

That elephant is, we’re at the front end of a potential mass genocide event (that’s already underway).

Conditions are already set in motion for a loss of the world-wide population of at least 5% – 10%, in the next 2, to 5 years (and that’s probably very conservative).

The chief cook and bottle washer in all of this, is biotech.

LABD (3X Inverse SPBIO):

Several charts are below. The vertical scale has been compressed to show the potential of the nascent move:

Today is the last trading day of the third quarter.

SPBIO, is on track to post lower three quarters in a row. No other major index is in the same position.

It seems to be taking forever but the case against biotech continues to build.

Positioning:

No doubt we’re short this sector via LABD (not advice not a recommendation), in a big way.

LABD has apparently finished its downward testing.

Now, as discussed (here and here), price action is alternating to the upside.

With that in mind, the new daily high of yesterday has not yet been reversed. This is alternating action when compared to the daily high reversal of September 20th.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Rule of Alternation: Biotech

September 27, 2021 By in 1907, Biotech, LABD, Livermore, Positions, Prechter, SPBIO 3 Comments

Early Session

What Happened Last Time … Won’t Happen This Time

We have four more trading days until the end of the Third Quarter. It’s unlikely that biotech (SPBIO) is going to make a new quarterly high.

This morning’s early action has LABD (3X inverse SPBIO) essentially unchanged to slightly lower; higher for SPBIO.

The weekly chart of SPBIO, above, has been inverted to mimic the inverse fund LABD … but without the tracking (bias) errors.

The “tight” area of action has been expanded in the next chart:

We can see the wide, high volume bar from the week of 8/27, is being tested by the subsequent weeks and their upward action.

This is normal market behavior that has probably been repeating itself since the buttonwood tree.

Alternating Action:

The difference this time around, we’ve already had the ‘low to upward thrust’ (for LABD) that was negated last week with a test.

That test has now reversed as seen on the 4-Hour chart (inverted SPBIO) below:

Both downward thrusts (September 17th, and 23rd) finished the day at or near their session lows.

The ‘rule of alternation’, from Prechter’s Elliott Wave discussions, essentially says that; what happened last time, will not happen this time.

That leaves two scenarios for SPBIO and LABD.

Scenario, No. 1

SPBIO reverses from here and goes on to make new daily, weekly highs.

Scenario, No. 2

SPBIO continues its downward reversal into the next leg lower; potentially to the Fibonacci projection target (not shown) of 161.8%.

That would put SPBIO, at or near the 3,873 level … a decline of nearly 62%, from last Friday’s close.

Force Index:

Since the inverse fund LABD is heavily traded (2mil – 3mil, shares per day), we can use it as a good indicator of professional trader commitment

I say ‘professional’ because, as incredible as it may seem, the majority of market participants (the amateurs) do not understand or can’t grasp the concept, the big money is made on the downside.

The trading books that regale stories of massive gains, were typically trades to the downside … probably the most famous of which, was Livermore’s well documented short position during The Panic of 1907.

I’ve even talked to a former broker (for a firm that has 15,000 locations nationwide) who asked me when I was discussing the markets (and I quote): “What’s an inverse fund?”

I kid you not.

As touched on yesterday with Random Notes, the level of complacency, stupidity and ignorance has reached levels that are not going to be repeated in our lifetimes.

Market participants are either going to be wiped-out … or they’re going to get very smart, very fast.

I’m personally going with the ‘wiped-out’ scenario as it’s extremely difficult to come up to speed on a complicated topic (reading price action) while your account is being decimated.

Which brings us to the Force-Index chart of LABD:

This chart’s a little different than the rest.

The Force Index section (the lower panel) has been expanded to show the nuances of thrust action.

Even all the way back to the major thrust lower on August 23rd, we can see, downward thrust energy has been dissipating.

Recently, as shown with the blue arrow, downward thrust has evaporated altogether.

Summary:

It appears from the 4-Hour chart of LABD, we’re potentially at a major point of inflection (not advice, not a recommendation).

The rest of the indices (except the miners) are at or near their all time highs … with valuations (P/E ratios) stretched to the highest on record; going all the way back to 1962, if memory serves.

SPBIO is the only major index that’s about to post three down quarters in a row.

Obviously we’re short this sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) with the understanding that anything can happen.

This market (SPBIO) along with the others could reverse and move to new highs.

However, at this juncture, it looks like the air’s coming out of biotech … slowly, at first.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

When It Gets … Tight

September 23, 2021 By in Biotech, DRV, IYR, LABD, Positions, Project Stimulus, SPBIO

Early Session

Tight Price Action … Trade About To Happen

We’ve got the daily chart of LABD, leveraged inverse fund Biotech, SPBIO, above.

Next, we highlight the tight price action and note the failed push lower:

Scroll up and down between the two charts and you can see, this is an area where the market has firmed-up.

Tight action is usually (not always) a pre-cursor of an upcoming move. One side is taking control; about to take the market their direction.

Note: The last two days (including today) show a pivot of sorts … still very young.

Positioning:

The tight stop on the DRV position was hit early in the session. Exit was performed at DRV 4.4336 (not advice, not a recommendation).

That freed-up capital was then allocated to a position in LABD (again, not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop is tight at LABD 18.79.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Plug has been Pulled

September 14, 2021 By in 1929, DRV, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, TZA 1 Comment

Mid Session

92-Years Almost To The Day

Barring any new highs in the S&P, which seems less and less likely, the market has bookended two historic extremes.

September 3rd, 1929, was the peak back then; September 2nd, 2021, is the peak now.

This site has said many times, if we’re doing our job right, whenever the big reversal comes, we’ll already be in position (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, far that has proven to be correct; having gone short via DRV and TZA during the past week.

This down move is still very young. It’s almost imperceptible and could somehow be negated.

However, with each passing day when there’s no attempt or unsuccessful attempts at new highs, downside probability continues to build.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Short

September 7, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, Positions, SPBIO

Late Session

Two Attempts To Short

Using the prior day’s analysis that a short entry was low risk, the first attempt was long LABD 17.78, tight stop at the prior day’s low of 17.38 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the chart shows, it did not take long to get stopped out and have LABD post a daily low of 17.37.

Immediately after the exit (within seconds), price action began to recover. The behaviour of this action gave the go-ahead to make a second entry.

After the second entry, price never came back. The stop on the position was changed to be the low of the day: 17.37 (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Bulls … Exhausted?

September 1, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, Wyckoff

Mid-Session

Intraday Hourly GDX Reversal: Signs of Trouble?

It took one more day than expected.

With a slight new daily high, we’re potentially at the end of the GDX rally.

It should be noted: The past two weeks of trading have stayed within the price extremes of the wide bar posted during the week of August 20th.

This is called ‘inside action’; typically signaling preparation for the next phase … whether up or down.

Note, the inverse fund DUST pushed just 0.02 points (DUST, 19.78) below our stop level (not advice, not a recommendation).

That position was elected to be maintained … we’re still short.

The hourly unmarked chart of GDX is below:

Next, we invert the chart to mimic the inverse fund DUST:

Now, comes the mark-up:

From Wyckoff’s writings all the way back to circa 1910, he discussed ‘shortening of the thrust’.

When net progress becomes less and less … we know we’re nearing the end of the move.

Throw into the mix the high level of resistance at the GDX 33.00, and probabilities favor the downside … upside for DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Knock Three Times …

August 28, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, Project Stimulus 1 Comment

Gold, GDX Warning: Breakdown Imminent?

It’s true when price action rebounds off a level, whether support or resistance, that level is confirmed.

However, personal (mental) bias, like the rabid hyperinflation ‘dollar destruction’ gold bulls, collectively have their minds so twisted, every bounce off so called support, is a buying opportunity.

That kind of blindness can set oneself up for (financial) disaster.

Well, we’re about to see if the current bounce was a buying opportunity or harbinger of a “free fall” breakdown.

Price action’s the final say. So, let’s take a look at what its been saying about the latest move.

Un-marked weekly chart of Senior Mining (ETF) Index GDX:

Next, comes the support line and contact points identified:

Now, comes the important part. Each rebound off support has less upward travel than before:

The right-most green arrow (upward travel), may or may not be complete. One fact in favor of completion is the significant amount of resistance around GDX, 33.00.

Price action has spent six weeks transacting in this area. Three weeks above support and now three weeks below.

Positioning:

We’re at the danger point; risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, price action does not need to go far to either support or negate a short trade set-up.

With that in mind, the Project Stimulus account is short this sector via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Destruction? Not Yet

August 24, 2021 By in Biotech, Dollar, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, LABD, Positions, Project Stimulus, SPBIO, Stew Peters, UUP

Before The Open

‘Dollar Destruction’ To Be Postponed

Hyper-Inflation Not In The Charts

Who looks at the actual chart anyway … so old-school.

However, what that school is telling us, the dollar’s built a solid base for a sustained rally.

Then we have this: Uneducated Economist gives us links in his report on why dollar demand could increase substantially.

If dollars are going up, gold is going down.

At this juncture, there’s still an inverse correlation.

Position Update:

On a separate but related note, the FDA announcement from yesterday was not taken into account with the biotech plan. An error if you will.

The level of malfeasance as detailed in this link was not thought to be possible.

The Project Stimulus account exited the short biotech trade with a small gain as shown below.

More analysis to come on a potential long-term biotech reversal set-up not unlike the dollar.

For now, we’re out.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Sitting Tight’

August 3, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, The Speck

12:32 p.m., EST

Livermore: ‘Get right and sit tight’

Inverse biotech fund LABD, in trading channel

A steady sustained decline of tracking index SPBIO, is the best environment for highly leveraged (3X-inverse) fund LABD.

Biotech continues to be one of, if not the downside leader.

There has been no major break lower (LABD higher) that would draw attention to the index. That’s good in a way; it allows one to open positions (not advice, not a recommendation) while price action is relatively quiet.

It’s still a while before the close. LABD could even finish slightly lower and remain in the trading channel shown above.

Self-Employment Is Key:

It’s stories like this that highlight one way (if not the only way) to avoid being sucked into the first round of injections is to generate your own income.

It seems that everyone jumps on the bandwagon and tells us ‘how bad it is’ … very few do the work and show what can be done about the current reality.

From a financial market perspective, shorting biotech looks like the highest probability set-up (not advice not a recommendation) until such time that price action says ‘get out’.

So, that’s this site’s approach to generating income and being separate from any large (mandate enforcing) corporation.

‘Knock and Talk’

One last note on taking action. This is an example; offering a perspective on what can be done if there is a knock at the door.

Narrow your focus of ‘influencers’ to those who actually provide a service. Reduce or eliminate exposure to those who continue to peddle the fear without any kind of plan.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Market Summary

August 2, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, DIA, DJUSBM, Dow 30, GLD, GOLD, IBB, IWM, IYM, LABD, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY

Dow, S&P, Russell … all outside down

Three markets with key reversals and the biotech sector (SPBIO) posting an inside day.

One other (less followed) market of note with outside down, was basic materials (DJUSBM).

Gold’s (GLD) upward thrust from Thursday the 29th, continues to erode.

One gets the sense that it’s slipping away for the bulls.

SPBIO price action shows the most probable direction is lower.

Expectation for the next session, is for some kind of downside follow-through along with lower market action overall.

Positions:

Current positioning remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation) being short the biotech sector via LABD.

Market updates for the week will be limited (as the result of travel) and will resume with technical discussions by the week-end.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.