Category Archives: Real Estate

If Real Estate Goes …

August 30, 2023 By in Dr. Elder, DRV, Federal Reserve, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, SRS

Then, Everything Goes

‘Professionals don’t look for the challenge, they look for the money’, Dr. Alexander Elder

Right now, the ‘challenge’ is AI; bull or bear, who’s right?

We even have a bearish article out on SeekingAlpha. That means, the sector will probability go higher from here. 🙂

I wrote for SeekingAlpha years ago; had tens-of-thousands of views on my work; was somehow, never paid a dime.

The editors eventually told me, identifying potential market turns to-the-day, was “not suitable” (that’s a real quote) for their readers … so, there’s that.

Follow The (Nat-Gas) Money

Meanwhile, a potential significant reversal was identified in Nat-Gas, link here. So far, it’s progressing under the radar.

Entries have been made in UNG, at 6.64, 6.75, 6.86, 6.89, with a hard stop moved up to UNG 6.71 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next, we have a potential reversal in Real Estate.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Price action’s now at Fibonacci Day 8, from the low on August 21st. In addition, it’s at the 50%, retrace level from the high on July 27, to the aforementioned low.

We’re in a high, potentially, soon to be much higher, interest rate environment.

The (Interest Rate) Black Swan

The general public and investing professionals alike, think as the economy tanks, the Fed will lower rates.

It’s a widely and strongly held belief. After all, it’s always worked that way.

What if it doesn’t happen this time.

The economy tanks and rates move even higher?

it’s a possibility to consider.

Positioning

As one might guess, I’m already short this sector via DRV (not advice, not a recommendation).

Entries were made yesterday and today at DRV 48.42, and 47.66 respectively.

Hard Stop, is at the session low of DRV 47.00 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Poised To Break

August 29, 2023 By in IYR, Real Estate 3 Comments

Enormous Downside Potential

Looking at Real Estate Index IYR, below, is all anyone needs to know.

It’s a set-up for a massive decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

For months, if not years, everyone’s been looking for ‘The Crash’.

Well, it looks like we’re on the cusp of some type of event.

Real Estate, IYR Weekly Close

The chart puts it into perspective.

We have a weekly close chart going all the way back to mid-2000, and it shows a massive ‘terminating wedge.’

Tomorrow’s data release is ‘pending home sales’.

On a daily chart to be provided in the next update, IYR price action has come back (up) to test resistance.

If there’s a downside reversal IYR’s likely to head back down to the multi-year trendline … again.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Key Reversal … Yet Again

June 13, 2023 By in 1987, DUST, Federal Reserve, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, JDST, Real Estate, The List, The Maverick of Wall Street, The Speck 2 Comments

Junior Miners Take Another Hit

With today’s outside-down (as of 2:43 p.m., EST), that makes it two key reversals for GDXJ, in the past five trading days.

While it looks like the whole herd is focused on the new mania, Artificial Intelligence, back at the ranch, the miners are painting an ominous picture.

Rendezvous With Destiny

The first two-minutes and ten seconds, at this link, are all that’s needed to get the idea of what’s likely to come.

The market recovered (fairly quickly) from 1987 … this time, may indeed be different.

The Elephant Sleeps

Ah, yes. The elephant no one talks about … or more accurately, are afraid to talk about.

Three links here, here and here, show us the elephant may be about to awake.

Even Fox News admits, it was all a lie.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Trend & Channel

From the bottom, May 25th to now, is a Fibonacci 13-Days.

Is that important?

Here’s a prior analysis on Real Estate IYR, that shows how Fibonacci can identify the pivot point, trend and/or trading channel.

Now, back to the Juniors.

The mining sector appears to be under pressure. Each attempt to rally is being thwarted.

Compressed view of the channel, below.

The Fed announcement at 2:00 p.m., EST tomorrow, may or may not have any material effect. The sector may just continue lower …. slowly, without much fanfare (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … After The Reversal

February 25, 2023 By in DRV, Economic Ninja, I Allegedly, IYR, Jerimiah Babe, Real Estate, SRS, TSLA 1 Comment

Trading, In The Cannel

Real estate reversed at Fibonacci Week 34, on schedule, as identified in this update.

Since then, it’s been three weeks of closing lower.

‘Boots on the ground’, have been done by numerous YouTubers such as Jerrimiah Babe, Economic Ninja, Dan from i-Allegedly, and others.

Real estate from a fundamental standpoint is in free-fall (not advice, not a recommendation).

Supporting data can be found at this link; time stamp 3:10 and 5:25, specifically for real estate.

From the realm of ‘You can’t make this stuff up’, go to time stamp 7:25, in the above link and look at the price of Telsa.

However, let’s not wander too far off and get back to the ‘implosion du jour’, real estate. 🙂

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If this channel is in-effect, meaning the ‘demand’ side is a long way down, the trading potential is enormous (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, let’s look at the daily chart and potential Put option trade.

Real Estate IYR, Daily (Close)

The market itself, the weekly above, has shown us it’s following a Fibonacci sequence … for now.

Getting down to the daily, on a close basis, we’re presenting one of an infinite number of potential moves.

It’s the upward move (if it happens) to test the channel line that’s the spot to watch.

During such a rebound, short dated put options would be decreasing in price significantly.

According to the economic calander, next Friday March 3rd, will have Fed representatives speaking at 11:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Bobsled, Starts … Down

February 9, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, IYR, LABD, Positions, Real Estate, SPBIO 1 Comment

Slowly, At First

Of all the major indices for today’s (Wednesday) session, biotech’s SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, had one of, if not the largest gain @ +10.48%.

The last update identified two sectors to watch for short positioning: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO; Short positioning via leveraged inverse funds DRV, and LABD, respectively (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since that post, DRV is up + 1.74%, and LABD is up + 8.58%, both measured on a close basis.

The ‘Big Reveal’

Remember: When price action turns south, that’s when the bad news comes out.

If this is the big reversal and biotech is the downside leader, unfortunately, that could mean a planned ‘reveal’ by the mainstream media.

Anyone going to alternative sites such as BitChute, ZeroHedge, Rumble, know full well what’s happening.

Maybe we’ll have another distraction like the 100-th (at last estimate) food processing plant fire or even something totally retro, like a balloon flying across … oh, wait. 🙂

Biotech SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD

We’ll get straight to the point as prior updates have built a substantial case for a long term, significant reversal.

Recall, LABD is the leveraged inverse of SPBIO. The daily chart shows the current set-up.

This site does not provide investment advice.

With that said, one could infer from this prior post (at the bottom), a position in LABD had already been established and included a hard-stop.

That was indeed the case.

Next Steps

There’s no guarantee on how far or how long a directional move will go.

However, for SPBIO, one can observe since the February 2021, reversal from all-time highs, a sustained, directional move typically lasts 4 – 6 weeks.

The next update will show the best chart timeframe (multiple days) that resulted in capturing the majority of the directional moves since the February 2021-high.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Moderna ‘Channel’ … Redux

February 5, 2023 By in Biotech, Excess Deaths, IYR, KMX, LABD, MRNA, Real Estate, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, Weekly Wrap-Up, Wyckoff 1 Comment

… And The Weekly, ‘Summary & Strategy’

The last update about our chief cook and bottle washer of gene ‘modification’ had this to say about price action.

“We’re about forty minutes into the session; Moderna (MRNA) has just confirmed the up-thrust reversal discussed in the last update“.

From that point Moderna (MRNA) declined for seven weeks for a total of around – 31.5%.

However, that’s not the most important part.

In that update, a trading channel was shown which at the time, was declining at – 93.7%, on an annualized basis.

Well, the channel is back.

Only this time, probabilities and price action have come together to set up for a potential sustained decline.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

Above, we have a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ and a test that has since turned lower.

Next, we have a series of repeating trend or channel lines.

Additional data has modified the downward slope to be declining at approximately – 90%, annualized.

From a fundamental standpoint, the data set is enormous on the events of the past three years.

At some point that data could provide a huge tailwind for downside action.

For now however, let’s stick with what price action is telling us and go to the Summary & Strategy

Summary & Strategy

The past week has identified two areas of position or trade execution and two areas for possible short-term options execution (not advice, not a recommendation):

Position or Trade: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO

Options: Carmax KMX, and Moderna MRNA

As a reminder, most if not all trade analysis is for the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Final Thoughts

Since we have possibly the largest bull trap in market history with huge numbers of VIX Call options, the following week may be subdued by going modestly up, sideways or down, slowly.

With that said, options positioning (if any) could be slated for the week of 2/17/23.

As always, price action is the final arbiter.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biggest Bull Trap, in History ?

February 3, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IYR, LABD, Real Estate, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 8 Comments

Slow Descent, At First … Then, Mass Sell-Off ?

The large number of VIX (volatility) Calls, tells us, not to expect an immediate sharp move lower.

Those Calls will likely need to be bled-off in value, before we get a significant downward spike … if there is one.

Market Summary, Watch List

Over the past week, there are two markets that are being monitored for short position entry: Real Estate and Biotech; IYR, and SPBIO, respectively.

After nearly five months of price action whipsaw and congestion, biotech appears to be in a nascent downside reversal. Real estate looks to have reversed today (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech has been the weakest (technically) of all the major indices (except miners, GDX and GDXJ).

We’re going to look at the daily chart of SPBIO, to see the opportunity and the risk.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

Since late September last year, there has been sideways-to-up, price action congestion.

Price action today, appears to have resolved into a nascent reversal.

We’re going to invert the chart to mimic the leveraged inverse fund LABD, showing the opportunity and the risk.

SPBIO, Daily Close (Inverted)

The prior two days of Fed induced bullish short-covering hysteria, have resulted in a decisive penetration of the support level, as shown.

By definition, this puts us in Wyckoff ‘Spring Position’; be on guard for a potential reversal.

Positioning

There have been many false starts to this sector’s reversal as evidenced by previous posts.

However, today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Every trading/speculator has their own style and this site does not give financial advice.

With that said, a (highly leveraged) short entry via LABD, would have a hard stop at today’s low.

At present (2:15 p.m., EST) and entry at LABD 12.91 would have a stop at 12.45, yielding a ‘risk’ of 0.46-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Historic (Downside) Potential

February 2, 2023 By in 2007 - 2008, DRV, IYR, Real Estate, SRS, ZeroHedge

Momentum Stretched Like ‘Never Before’

How do you know it’s a bear market bounce?

Take a look at the long-term chart of real estate IYR, below.

From a historic momentum standpoint, we’re at ‘never before’ levels.

The chart puts it in perspective.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

MACD momentum is stretched to (nearly) off the chart.

In the zoom version below, note how MACD histogram made lower lows in 2022, and then immediately launched to an historic extreme in January.

It’s potentially the largest short squeeze in IYR, trading history.

What that means; when we finally get a decisive reversal (possibly this week) the downside potential is enormous (not advice, not a recommendation).

Old vs. New ‘Investor’

Here’s a good read on the differences between those who learn and those who do not.

A paraphrased quote:

‘Whatever bad scenario you can imagine, reality can be far worse.’

In the next update, and depending on price action for the day, we’ll discuss how you author is (or plans to) positioning for the downside in IYR.

It’s about five minutes before the open and IYR, is trading slightly higher.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Do Not Pass ‘Go’

February 1, 2023 By in 1929, Dow 30, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Greater Depression, IYR, Michael Cowan, Real Estate, Speck-Effect, The Speck, ZeroHedge

Do Not Collect $200

Go Stright To Economic ‘Depression’

And, that’s where we are ladies and gentlemen.

Provided many times on this site, the assessment we’ve gone straight past recession and directly to: ‘The Greater Depression’, or ‘The Great Depression 2.0’

By now, we’re all aware of this data, just out from ZeroHedge.

That data is at the ‘peak’ or the depths of 1932, and we in our current market, haven’t even got started!

‘Entertain Me’

YouTuber, Michael Cowan, has picked up the story.

You can hear the frustration in his voice (time stamp 1:31) as everybody seems to be waiting to be ‘entertained’ with a crash before they do anything.

It’s a good thing we’re not part of that ‘crowd’, right? 🙂

Lions and Tigers and The Fed, Oh My!

The Fed’s interest rate announcement is due out at 2:00 p.m., Eastern, today; does it really matter?

We can see with unbiased observation; the wheels have already, irrevocably, been set in motion.

The economy along with the ‘elephant’ that no one talks about, are juggernauts on a downward course.

The 1929 Crash, Then Bull Rally

Remember, the big market speculators of the early 1900s typically made their fortunes on the way down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s also not forget, one of, if not the largest market rallies up to that time (in percentage terms), happened right in the middle of The Great Depression.

Chart by macrotrends: www.macrotrends.net

Of course, to trade that mid-1930s rally, you had to have the capital to do so.

Which brings us to the next topic: Real Estate.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With yesterday’s new print high, we’re at Fibonacci Week 34. That puts us at a potential trading channel or inflection point as discussed in this post.

There’s no guarantee of a trading channel or even a reversal.

However, we do have a confluence of events; upside volume (pressure) declining, marginal new highs and the potential Fed pivot point, due out today.

It’s about 20-minutes before the open. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Ready for Reversal

January 29, 2023 By in 1929, Federal Reserve, Great Depression, Holiday Turns, IYR, Jerimiah Babe, Real Estate, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Unrelenting, Down Data

‘The economy has already collapsed’.

That’s from Jerimiah Babe and is likely, correct.

Recent data-points supporting the case for ‘collapse already in progress’, are below:

American’s spending drops … again.

Pending homes sales worst annual decline … ever.

There are nine other supplemental data points for the economic mayhem, collapse, collapse-in-progress scenario; they are listed at the end of this post.

For now, we’re talking about real estate and specifically the proxy for the sector, IYR.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

As stated in the last post, we’re going to follow-up with a potential IYR, downside reversal by covering three more technical points; Fibonacci time correlation, thrust energy and trading channel.

First up: Last week completed a Fibonacci 34 (-1 week) time frame that may result in a reversal into a trading channel (shown on second chart).

Upward force (Thrust Index) declined significantly over the prior upward push during the week of 1/13/23.

The weekly chart has been compressed and trading channel lines added.

Internal trendlines are printed as grey dashed lines.

As shown, we’re at ‘Week 34 (-1)’.

If this market’s in reversal and adhering to a Fibonacci time sequence, we could see an immediate reversal or another minor high next week to make it an even 34 or go one additional week to make it 34 (+1) weeks.

Either way, we’re at The Danger Point®

The 1929 – 1932 Trading Channel(s)

Here’s a bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else.

Research and data gathered by my firm, has shown markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a Holiday Week.

In our case below, The 1929, all time high was 379.61, posted on September 4th; the Tuesday following the Labor Day Weekend.

The final low and subsequent reversal was 41.81, posted on July7th 1932; the Thursday following the July 4th Holiday:

Enough Said.

Chart provided by macrotrends @ www.macrotrends.net

There are at least three main trading channels in effect for the entire (nearly) three year down move.

Trading channels are an old and repeating characteristic of the markets.

Real Estate Re-Cap

The all-time high in real estate IYR, was 116.89, posted on December 31, 2021, the Friday before the New Year’s Weekend.

Since then, there have been several trading channels in effect; at this juncture, we may have yet another.

With the data links provided at the beginning and the links at the end of this post, sustained price action to the downside is more probable (not advice, not a recommendation).

This coming week is likely to be quite interesting as the Fed continues on its path of price and demand destruction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Addendum

Congratulations on reading this far. You must be serious about your work. Supporting data for the bearish case is below.

Housing data stabbed in the heart.

Blackstone redemption limits

Population set to collapse or is already collapsing.

Real estate fire sales … just the tip?

Home sales biggest annual drop.

New ‘protections‘ affecting the market?

Copper prices at record highs.

Pilots with bad hearts? No problem.

Where did all the workers go?