Category Archives: China

Nat-Gas … Post-Mortem

October 12, 2025 By in China, David Weis, Natural Gas, Positions, UNG, UNG-25-01, Up-Thrust

What Do You See?

We’re heading straight into winter.

Who knows what type of ‘weather’ we’ll have this time.

So, nat-gas can’t go any lower than where it is now, right?

Wrong

That type of thinking’s called a ‘Mind Trap’, link here.

David Weis would typically start mentoring sessions with a question (after presenting a chart):

“What do you see?”

Forgetting all the factors that ‘should’ drive the price of nat-gas higher, we have the chart.

Natural Gas ETF, UNG: Daily

The upper blue line is resistance which price action ‘up-thrusted’ (reversed).

The green line is a minor support area.

This is where a long position was initiated (UNG-25-01). The expectation for the next day (last Friday), was for an immediate increase it price.

That didn’t happen. The long position, the only ‘long’ for this year, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

The orange line is another support area but the lower blue line, if UNG gets there, is the ‘spring’ set-up target.

U.S & China Nat-Gas

Last Friday’s chaos with China and tariffs, begs the question if Chinese nat-gas shipments would be used as a tit-for-tat pawn; meaning, China halts all purchases.

The short answer is no.

For all of 2025, there’ve been no shipments, link here.

With that said, if nat-gas is going to move lower to the target area shown, then something else would be the driving mechanism.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … What’s Left?

July 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, China, David Weis, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

All The Good News

Yesterday’s action falls under the ‘should have known‘, category.

Should have known, based on the price action itself, that something was up.

That ‘something‘, could be all the good news left, for Nvidia (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the pre-market, hourly chart of the SOXX, the condition is obvious.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Hourly (pre-market)

The magenta oval and arrow, indicate current pre-market trading (as of 8:27 a.m., EST).

The SOXX, is trading at 247.58; just above the July 10th high, of 247.52.

At the open, we can expect the usual short-covering volatility for the first three-to-five minutes.

After that, we’ll have some idea if ‘this is it’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Down … China Sells

May 1, 2025 By in China, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, SILJ, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up

Wasn’t gold (GLD) going to launch ever higher in some kind of dollar-destruction, de-dollarization, worldwide meltdown?

Well, it might happen (eventually), but not today.

With today’s GLD, gap-down reversal (dollar higher), the press is gasping, groping for direction as the Chinese of all people are selling in huge amounts, links here and here.

Weren’t they just recently buying in massive quantities?

Behind all the hype and hyperbole, the potential for (a gold) reversal was identified ahead of time, links here and here.

With that said, let’s review how this site positioned itself for today’s excitement.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The current short position, JDST-25-10, was opened April 25th, then doubled on the 28th (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve penetrated support.

Technically speaking, that puts GDXJ, in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. An attempt to move higher from here, is ‘normal’ market behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When Costco Sells Gold

October 1, 2023 By in China, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, serpentza, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Mother of All Contrary Indicators

This has to be it, right?

Selling gold in a supermarket; an expensive commodity, peddled to the least informed and least capitalized segment of the public.

Once that market’s saturated, who’s left?

Going Down Memory Lane

It’s been nearly three years since this post.

From a long-term strategy standpoint, this site has been consistent; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next shoe has yet to drop on how or what’s going to be used to extract (or confiscate) precious metals from the (stacking) proletariat.

With craziness by the day, anything can happen.

Gold: Turning Points & Technical

So far, it’s been three-for-three (here, here and here) identifying recent significant technical conditions and turning points for gold, GLD.

At this juncture, the dollar collapse, and the silver/gold bull launch are just not happening. It’s not there … something else is going on (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re in the middle of a massive sovereign bankruptcy (Time Stamp 7:10) that’s never happened before.

What’s going on behind the scenes is not visible to us.

However, from a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, those (hidden) actions and decisions show up on the chart(s).

Contrary Indicator

Remember Baghdad Bob?

Constantly giving press conferences discussing the strength of the military campaign when the exact opposite was true.

It may be so with gold as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

The local supermarket has decided, after a 22-year long bull market, it’s ‘safe’ for profit.

The hapless public is now standing at the gold kiosk; with face-mask firmly secured, arm bandaged from the latest booster, EV FOB in hand (or pocket), hypnotized into yet another mania.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s Pivot … Debt Default?

August 12, 2023 By in Activist Post, China, Gold & Silver, Prechter, Silver Collapse, SLV, South Sea Bubble

SLV, Targeting Single Digits

Silver’s an industrial metal and that industry worldwide, is in full-blown collapse.

Maersk reports shipping trade implodes.

Warehouse vacancy space in California’s industrial sector is increasing and the consumer, may have finally spent themselves into oblivion.

Let’s throw on top, the food supply continues to contract just as forecast.

With all that, one can ask:

‘Just how’s silver going to enter into a bull market under these conditions?’

So far, since this post and this one, over two years ago, it hasn’t (not advice, not a recommendation).

A New Down Channel

Silver continues its bear market that started way back in April, of 2011.

However, early-May and late-July peaks in SLV, appear to confirm the right side of a new down channel.

Silver SLV, Monthly Candle

With successive hits on the right side, trending down, there appears to be a significant barrier to moving higher.

The next chart uses a standard Fibonacci projection tool, showing potential downside targets.

The critical area on the chart is the ‘23.6%’ projection to the SLV 19-area.

If price action retraces to this level and then starts to change character, it’s a possible bullish indication.

If not, and we push lower, SLV then continues on with its decade-long decline.

Sovereign Default … Waiting

There’s a lot of world-wide debt built up in the system.

China appears ready to collapse into a real estate depression … probably co-incident with our own.

Couple that with record level stock valuations, record margin borrowing and mass psychosis, not seen since at least South Sea Bubble of 1720.

Could it be, among many trigger-events, we get a sovereign debt crisis (assets dumped to pay debt) that send both gold and silver to much lower levels?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dollar ‘Collapse’ … More Reality

May 21, 2023 By in China, Dollar, Uneducated Economist, UUP

It’s Scenario, No. 1

The last update on the dollar had three potential outcome scenarios.

No. 1

The dollar rallies from here; moving on to test the highs.

No. 2

The dollar continues lower, tests or penetrates the prior lows, then rallies in a Wyckoff spring to the highs and potentially higher.

No. 3

We really do get a collapse.

The dollar breaks the support area, comes back to test the underside and then heads lower.

Dollar UUP, Weekly Candle

The chart of the dollar (UUP) from the prior analysis is re-printed below.

Now, the updated chart

At this juncture, the dollar’s following Projection No. 1 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Dollar ‘Collapse’ … Where ???

This post just out from Uneducated Economist does a fantastic job of describing why the dollar has not only not collapsed but is strengthening.

The UUP chart above, confirms his assessment.

The other take-away from UE’s post is the absolute strategic nature of what’s going on.

Strategies playing out, years if not decades in the making.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Positions & Plans

July 16, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, China, FXI, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-YANG-22-01, Usual Suspects

Expectations, For The Week Ahead

Summarizing trading actions for the week and the action plan, going forward.

Open Positions:

Currently there are two open positions: details below.

TDA-YANG-22-01

Short the Chinese FXI via YANG (not advice, not a recommendation)

Enter YANG @ 10.95, with current stop @ 10.89

Friday’s close @ 14.05, Open profit = 28.3%

FXI, 3X Leveraged Inverse, YANG, Daily

Shown above, YANG appears to be in a trading channel (grey lines).

As a result of moving decisively higher (FXI, lower), the stop on the position is to be moved to YANG 12.79 (not advice, not a recommendation) at the next trading session.

LABD-22-05

Short the biotech SPBIO via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation)

Multi-entry LABD @ 28.11 (combined), with current stop @ 26.57

Friday’s close @ 26.98, Open loss = – 4.02%

SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse, LABD, Daily

Last week contained both record daily volume (since inception) for LABD, as well as record weekly volume.

Downward thrust energy has dissipated. The down-move appears to be exhausted.

Supporting the assessment LABD is at or near a pivot point (reverse higher), we’re going to review the 3-Day chart.

SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, 3-Day

Note, there is one more trading session (this Monday) needed to complete the current ‘3-Day’ bar.

First, we can see downward thrust dissipating as on the daily chart.

The prior three-day bar is identified as ‘Ease of Movement’.

It’s the first bar in the entire down-sequence starting on 6/14, where upside action was able to penetrate the prior (3-Day) bar’s high.

That’s an indication of demand.

After upside penetration, price continued lower.

However, here’s the important part, LABD, closed higher and posted a higher low when compared to the prior 3-Day bar; subtle clues a reversal may be in the works.

There’s one more trading session needed to complete the current 3-Day bar and anything can happen.

However, based on the analysis thus far, it’s reasonable to expect LABD, to continue to post higher; that we’ve reached the extreme of downside action.

The 3-Day below shows the higher lows and includes a zoom of the area.

Adding to the reversal case, on a weekly close basis, SPBIO reached underside resistance during the week of 7/8. This week just past, it closed slightly lower (chart not shown).

Summary

It’s the weekend and so we have the usual suspects of bad news … any of which could be the butterfly in the amazon, the final upset for the markets.

Just a brief list of current events, below:

Texas cattle being dumped on the market

Locomotive workers may go on strike

Child size coffins ordered in bulk.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Ahead of The Pack … China

July 11, 2022 By in China, FXI, TDA-YANG-22-01, Wyckoff, YANG, ZeroHedge

Wyckoff Analysis, Nails It

The last report on China, FXI, stated we’re in a Wyckoff set-up that was about to be tested.

More specifically, it said the leveraged inverse fund YANG, was in ‘spring’ position; ‘spring’ is opposite of up-thrust, because we’re looking at shorting the FXI, via inverse fund YANG.

Back then, two charts were provided with the most probable outcome of the set-up. One showed a ‘pass’ of the test and one showed ‘fail’.

Well, it’s obvious now; pass it is.

The original hourly chart is repeated below with the current chart (ninety minutes into the session) following.

Leveraged FXI Inverse YANG, Hourly

Prior to the ‘test’.

And now … ninety minutes into the session:

Back in the day, over a century ago, Wyckoff wrote that ‘somebody always knows something’ and that ‘something’ shows up on the tape.

What we in the Proletariat didn’t know last week, was this week, would bring us this report from ZeroHedge.

The important part is that Wyckoff analysis allowed one to see what was happening (on the tape) and position ahead of time (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

The prior report on FXI contained the following:

“Risk on a position short FXI via YANG (not advice, not a recommendation) can be reduced by allowing YANG price action to retrace as much of the opening gap as possible.”

That’s exactly what was done with an entry made near the lows of the day.

For the haters (if any), here’s a reproduction of the entry exactly as it appears in the trade account:

Check for yourself if you like, that YANG was at 10.95, right around 10:51, a.m. EST.

The low of the day occurred several minutes later at YANG 10.90. The stop is set just below that low @ 10.89 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The trade’s identified as TDA-YANG-22-01. The ‘TDA’ references that a separate account (TDA Ameritrade) is being used for this position.

Hopefully, that’s enough ‘transparency’ and we can move on.

The Wyckoff Edge

Properly done (without being skewed by personal bias), there’s nothing else needed other than Wyckoff analysis.

It’s important of course, to understand the context of our (global) environment such as ‘everything’s going according to plan’ but allowing the mainstream to influence the analysis, other than providing a contrarian view, is an absolute waste of time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The China Set-Up … Short FXI

July 8, 2022 By in China, FXI, Neil McCoy-Ward, Wyckoff, YANG 2 Comments

From One High Probability, To Another

The last update’s high probability set-up was negated at the next session … only to morph into another high probability.

We’ll go straight to the FXI, leveraged inverse fund YANG.

FXI, Leveraged Inverse YANG, Hourly

It’s about twenty minutes after the open and YANG is trading at around, 11.15 – 11.16.

The chart below shows a Wyckoff spring set-up in progress.

What’s missing at this point, what’s to be expected during this session or next, is the test.

That same hourly chart is marked up below to show how that test may look with a pass or fail.

Risk on a position short FXI via YANG (not advice, not a recommendation) can be reduced by allowing YANG price action to retrace as much of the opening gap as possible.

It’s Friday and we’re heading into the weekend.

Does anyone really want to be positioned long? 🙂

It’s not as if anything bad is happening.

Nothing like British Members of Parliament (and the Prime Minister) turning in their resignations … all staged but that’s a whole other story.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Eyes On China … FXI

July 6, 2022 By in China, David Weis, Dr. Elder, FXI, SRS, SRS-22-01, Wyckoff, YANG, YANG-22-02 1 Comment

Textbook (YANG) FXI, Short Entry

If the trade’s falling apart, get out.

That’s the admonition from Dr. Alexander Elder in his book ‘Come Into My Trading Room‘.

And so it was. Short position in real estate, closed out.

Even with all the analysis, real estate (IYR) has pushed higher. The short position via SRS (SRS-22-01) was exited just below the stop @ SRS 16.33.

Exiting a trade, frees the mind to look elsewhere for opportunity.

Typically, one would have to wait days or even a week or so for something else to be available.

However, despite appearances, the market is moving very fast at this juncture.

Looking around in those markets, we have a textbook entry signal (to go short) the FXI (not advice, not a recommendation).

David Weis & The Video

Many times, on this site (actually, for years), the Weis video has been recommended.

Next to Wyckoff’s treatise from 1910, Studies In Tape Reading, that video is probably the most important one could ever watch concerning the markets.

In it, he describes a ‘trick’ as he calls it, to get aboard a market that’s already underway. At the time, his discussion was using DE (if memory serves), as the trading vehicle.

That ‘trick’ is highlighted below on FXI

China Index FXI, Daily

This is how the chart looks early in today’s session.

Next, we’re going to invert the chart to mimic what’s seen on leveraged inverse fund YANG.

And now, the signal zoomed-in

The above price action is nearly exactly as presented in the Weis video; even though it was recorded fifteen-years ago.

The above signal is not a guarantee.

It is, however, a high probability low risk set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

The entry signal was triggered at approximately YANG 11.75, with a stop at YANG 11.02, for a ‘risk’ of 0.73/share (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

As this post is being created, YANG is retracing and is currently trading near 11.67, narrowing the distance from any potential entry to the stop.

On a very long term (Monthly) basis, there are interesting things happening in FXI. We’ll be covering that soon in another update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Active: YANG (YANG-22-02), entry @ 11.83, with stop @ 11.30