Category Archives: GLD

Gold Miners Channel Lower

August 12, 2021 By in Food Supply, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, Real Estate 1 Comment

10:47 a.m., EST

GDX In Trading Channel

Follow On To ‘Up-Thrust’ Analysis

First, let’s start with the July 29th analysis of GDX. That update showed price action about to ‘Up-Thrust’ into a reversal.

The update even gave a possible high for the top of the developing set-up.

That high was in the area of GDX 35.65, near the 38% retrace level.

GDX topped-out at 35.82; then reversed.

The set-up chart is shown below and followed with the price action result:

And the result …

Pulling out to look at the weekly time frame, it’s clear, GDX is in a down-channel.

The magenta arrows show channel contact points:

Summary:

Gold and the miners are not showing hyperinflation at this juncture. It’s just not there.

Something else is going on.

As with the real estate index (IYR) not reversing as expected from collapsing retail purchasing (within established malls and elsewhere), gold and the miners are not moving decisively higher.

With real estate, It came out months later (after abandoning shorts on IYR) that Black Rock and others had been buying up whole sub-divisions … specifically from D.R. Horton.

With gold, it may be something else.

As proposed several times, the ‘controllers’ may make it irrelevant.

For example, some parts of Australia are completely immobile.

If you can’t get to the bullion dealer to either buy or sell, does it really matter if the metal’s in your possession?

This is a long-term game and this site’s in it for the long haul.

Each side making its chess moves. With that, it’s probably a good idea to review the standard plan of those on the other side.

Anecdote:

From a personal standpoint, as this post is being generated, there’s a Leghorn Rooster in a dog kennel cage (in my office) that’s been crowing for about two hours.

The same one (only much larger now) seen in this brief video.



Roosters are absolutely verboten in this neighborhood.

He started to crow decisively (collar or not) about a week ago; starting around 6:30 a.m.

He was not part of the plan. The five chicks were all presumed to be hens and his appearance was sort of an accident.

Several iterations later, which included sound-proofing the garage, he’s got his own set-up in my office.

It’s been about two and a half hours now and it looks like he’s done crowing. Soon, he’ll be off to check out the hens and be on with his day.

As a result of his arrival, we’ve changed our thinking: It may not be long before sentiment (to the food supply) changes instantly. It’s possible everyone at that time will be clamoring for their own livestock … crowing or not.

They’re no guarantees we’ll be able to keep him a secret (but God willing).

However, if he can be kept on the down low and then food supplies are cut off or severly curtailed, we’ll be more than happy to offer “Stud” services … for ‘small’ fee 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold, mini Flash-Crash

August 9, 2021 By in Dollar, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, UUP, Van Metre

10:23 a.m., EST

Livermore:

‘Surprises are in the direction of trend’

The following quote is from this past Saturday’s update:

“It’s no secret, price action in GLD and the miners (GDX, GDXJ), has been analyzed for months as bearish.

The weekly chart shows GLD, right at the edge of a terminating wedge; about to break lower:”

Then, we can also add this quote from the GDX Short Sell, Set-Up:

“This site’s not part of the hyperinflation crowd. It’s too easy to jump on the bandwagon, get the clicks and then say it’s all ‘manipulated’ when price action does not follow the narrative.”

A firm foundation has already been laid; a bearish case for gold (the miners and silver) that includes the inverse correlation of a bullish dollar.

Both moves are currently underway.

Steven Van Metre, followed-on; highlighting the bearish gold set-up in his ‘Sunday Night Charts‘ update.

As is typical, there’s a small cadre that can see what’s happening. They are somehow able to ignore the constant media hype; positioning accordingly.

The original weekly chart of GLD below, is followed by today’s update:

Updated chart:

Typical market behavior is to break through the trend (for however long) and then come back for an underside test.

It seems that anything related to the gold (silver) markets is an overcrowded trade. There are too many rabid bullish fanatics.

We’ll stand on the sidelines for this one (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

After the ‘plug is pulled …’

August 7, 2021 By in 1907, 1913, Banking, Food Supply, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Jerimiah Babe, Livermore, The Speck, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Updated, 12/18/21, with notes in blue text.

Jerimiah Babe:

‘The real money’s going to be made, after the plug is pulled’

Well, that’s close.

Actually, the real money’s made on the way down … when the plug is pulled … not after.

‘After’, is when you take the huge gains from the short side and then allocate that to areas which stand to recover … or at least have a good chance of recovery.

It’s a two-step process:

Nobody demonstrated that better than Livermore himself during the panic of 1907.

It’s probably no surprise that panic was potentially a fabricated event (sound familiar?).

It laid the groundwork for the Federal Reserve act of 1913.

Operating in parallel, we have the following:

Titanic engineering design approval: July of 1908.

Construction begins: March 1909.

Sea trials: Early April, 1912

Titanic ‘sinks’: April 15, 1912.

April 15th, is tax day … coincidence … no.

Whether or not there really is a ship (or which one is) at the bottom of the Atlantic, is immaterial.

What’s important, was that it all may have been a controlled demolition of the financial system so that it cold be ‘reset’ to allow fractional reserve banking.

The fly in the ointment? Unexpectedly, Livermore owned the market at the bottom. He could have single handedly destroyed the financial system by executing more short selling.

That’s when J.P. Morgan (possibly chief cook and bottle washer for the ‘reset’) called him in to appeal to Livermore’s ‘patriotism’; to not destroy the market. You can’t make this stuff up.

So, it’s time to reset the system every hundred years or so.

Just like it’s time to have a medical ‘incident’ and reduce the population every hundred years or so:

2019: ‘The Speck’

1918: ‘Espana’ Flu

1817: ‘Cholera’

1718: ‘Plague’

How does this relate to the markets? For this update, the preamble above, brings us to gold (GLD):

Gold (GLD) Analysis:

It’s no secret, price action in GLD and the miners (GDX, GDXJ), has been analyzed for months as bearish.

The weekly chart shows GLD, right at the edge of a terminating wedge; about to break lower:

The measured move … to around GLD ~ 120, is exactly at the Fibonacci 161.8%, projection (not shown).

If there’s a wedge breakdown, we have two separate measurement techniques targeting the same area.

Gold (GLD) did break lower but has not progressed to the measured move. Latest update is here and here.

The next chess move, is probably not going to be dollar destruction.

No. The next move is likely to be as stated before, supply chain shut-down with the objective of ‘starve them out’.

Correct but not the way the media plays it.

They attempt to tie it to ‘climate change‘. Yes, the climate is changing but the earth is getting colder, not warmer. Crop failures are the result.

Couple that with intentional weather modification (weaponization), controlled demolition of the supply chain and voila! Food becomes scarce or more expensive or both.

In a prior update, when that statement was made, it may have sounded extreme. Now, we have this interview and time stamp (8:11), where we get the exact same thing.

Take Action:

This article, just out on ZeroHege is a good one-stop shop to start or continue being out in front of ‘events’.

Here’s a brief video of one man’s action, in action:

Four hens, a rooster, in an urban setting (houses on three sides).

The rooster was not part of the plan. If you look closely, you can see his ‘No Crow‘ collar … it works most of the time.

He was unexpected but is now seen as an asset.

He keeps the hens under control (otherwise, they fight) and gets them all back in the coop at night.

Is it a hassle: Yes.

Is it messy: Yes.

Will the neighbors not care about the crowing, be clamoring (and paying with cash, gold, silver) for eggs and chicks three months from now, if/when food shipments are cut off? Probably, yes

Mass recognition of potential famine to come in the spring when the farmers do not have enough ‘inputs’ (seed, fertilizer) for a viable crop.

Don’t forget about no spare parts for farm equipment.

Scaboo

The rooster, “Scaboo” was such a happy camper that he was crowing all day.

He was moved outside of town to a more rural location.

We still have access to him if needed for fertilized eggs.

Here is, all grown up and strutting his stuff

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Market Summary

August 2, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, DIA, DJUSBM, Dow 30, GLD, GOLD, IBB, IWM, IYM, LABD, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY

Dow, S&P, Russell … all outside down

Three markets with key reversals and the biotech sector (SPBIO) posting an inside day.

One other (less followed) market of note with outside down, was basic materials (DJUSBM).

Gold’s (GLD) upward thrust from Thursday the 29th, continues to erode.

One gets the sense that it’s slipping away for the bulls.

SPBIO price action shows the most probable direction is lower.

Expectation for the next session, is for some kind of downside follow-through along with lower market action overall.

Positions:

Current positioning remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation) being short the biotech sector via LABD.

Market updates for the week will be limited (as the result of travel) and will resume with technical discussions by the week-end.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold, Dollar: In Tandem

June 19, 2021 By in Bonds, DIA, Dollar, Dow 30, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, UUP 2 Comments

Dollar Rally, Gold Rout

Markets Remain Inversely Correlated

First, let’s start with a review of the dollar reversal.

Back in early May, this report pointed at the possibility for a bullish set-up in the dollar.

That type of head’s up gives one time to investigate the correlations.

Correlations like, ‘is gold still inversely correlated to the dollar (and bonds)?’

Over the weeks as the set-up unfolds, confirmation or negation can be added by observing price action.

By the time we get the dollar penetrating support levels, we have gold at interim highs.

In fact on June 9th, the day the above ‘penetration’ report was posted, gold (GLD) had already reached its peak and was in a reversal.

Five days later (before the major down-move), this report was published on gold.

Therefore, at this juncture, we’re still inversely correlated.

So, what does that mean?

The updates on the dollar have proposed, since the bullish divergence (now turned rally) is on a longer, weekly time frame, the ensuing move could have the potential to carry the index UUP, to the top of the trading range shown here.

Then, what happens to gold?

If the negative correlation remains intact, gold gets whacked.

The weekly chart of GLD (above) has the index closing right at the Fibonacci 38.2%, projected level.

Wide bars tend to get tested. There could be some kind of rally in the coming week but it’s not required.

The Fibonacci projections highlighted as the orange bars, go all the way down to 161.8%. That’s equivalent to GLD at ~ 118.65, or the futures market somewhere around $1,300 – $1,350.

With the Dow 30, (DIA) penetrating and closing below the 336, support levels on Friday, we have a Dow Theory Sell Signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The markets appear to be rolling over.

The last market reversal in February – March, of last year, had GLD dropping over – 14.5%, in two weeks.

Fast forward to now; GLD, is already down over – 15.2%, from its August 2020, highs.

Stay Tuned.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Channel … Down

June 15, 2021 By in Biotech, Corn, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IBB, SPBIO, Wyckoff

10:47 a.m., EST

Contact points confirm channel

Gold (GLD) heading lower

The two hits on the right side channel line provide confirmation of the trend.

An expanded version of the daily is below:

So far, we’ve had the blockage of the Suez Canal. Auto parts being sent to the bottom of the ocean off Japan. ‘Mysterious’ grain silo fires destroying harvested crops.

But wait, there’s more. This just in:

A fire has destroyed the largest grease plant in the U.S.

If transportation is shut down as a result of cyber attack, fuel pipelines off-line, no grease to lubricate the wheels or any number of other (planned … and don’t think there’re not) events, the last thing that’s going to help get anyone through, is a ‘stack’ of inedible metal.

It’s no secret this site’s been using the Biblical precedent of Genesis 41.

That is: Grain and Corn come first … then gold and silver.

The ‘stacking’ public has got this message reversed. Of course, this is not advice or a recommendation.

However, for those that can see, it’s so obvious the goal is ‘controlled demolition’ of the supply chain. All of it.

We’ll put everything back to ‘normal’ if you just get injected.

Meanwhile, biotech IBB, and SPBIO, have both posted a new daily low.

IBB is poised to penetrate the resistance area identified in this update, and come back to test the wide bar.

If that happens, we have a Wyckoff up-thrust in play. More analysis of biotech to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dow Theory Sell & Gold

June 14, 2021 By in Charles Dow, Dollar, Dow 30, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, UUP, Wyckoff 2 Comments

9:23 a.m., EST

Dow Theory; Sell signal nears

Gold, in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ reversal

Even though the current environment is anything but traditional, the report at this link shows how close the market is to a Dow Theory sell signal.

It could be. Even with valuations and markets at never before seen extremes, the traditional theory will still hold.

Wyckoff analysis, developed during the same time as Dow (published in 1910), does not concern itself with ‘valuations’.

That’s the key

Wyckoff discovered early on, that ‘markets have an energy of their own’.

This ‘energy’ has nothing to do with valuations.

Gold (GLD) has been discussed several times over the past few weeks; that it has stalled and in potential reversal.

The weekly chart shows the blue line resistance area. Price action has struggled at this location for weeks.

Now, with the market about to open, GLD is trading down a solid -2.5 points, or – 1.4%.

If that level is held to the open, it puts GLD below the June 3rd (weekly) low and below the resistance area.

With all the inflation, and hyperinflation talk, GLD has not made it to new highs.

Last week, the dollar reversal was confirmed with UUP posting a new weekly high. At the same time, weekly MACD confirmed its bullish divergence.

The stage appears to be set for some kind of surprise; in the markets, the dollar and gold.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold & Dollar, Reversal Ready

May 22, 2021 By in Dollar, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, UUP 1 Comment

When price action penetrates support or resistance and stalls, reversal may be imminent.

At this juncture, gold and dollar, are mirror images.

Each at their own pivot point.

Gold (GLD) is attempting to push through resistance.

At the same time, it’s at the 50% retrace from the August 6th, 2020 high, and the March 8th, 2021, low.

The dollar is a near mirror image:

The correlation is not exact but has been fairly close for the past three months. Gold at a retracement high; the dollar testing support lows.

This past Friday, the dollar (UUP as proxy), did not move appreciably higher.

That in turn, has set up the ‘spring’ condition (weekly close basis), discussed the day prior in this report.

We can see the set-up.

Both gold and dollar at opposite ends.

Note, the dollar’s bullish divergence is a weekly time-frame set-up; giving it more weight.

If there’s a rally, it could go much higher, last longer or be quicker than anyone would expect.

If the dollar/gold correlation remains intact, as/if the dollar rallies, gold, silver and the miners would retreat … possibly, right along with an overall market reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold at Pivot

May 19, 2021 By in GLD, GOLD, UUP

8:49 a.m., EST

GLD, retraced 50%, now at edge of range.

Reversal is possible

Note: Both charts are inverted, turned upside down.

Above: GLD is currently at 50%, a common retrace level.

Next: We have GLD, in a possible trading channel.

With the Fed meeting minutes due out at 2:00 p.m., EST, that release could be used as the excuse for GLD, to complete its corrective action.

If GLD pivots lower, the dollar (UUP), could also make its move and reverse higher.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Divergence

May 11, 2021 By in Biotech, Currencies, Dollar, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, SPBIO, UUP, Van Metre 2 Comments

9:51 a.m., EST

Everyone loves to hate the dollar.

That sentiment extreme is a set-up … for the bulls.

If the UUP dollar index ETF, manages to push below the 24.00 – level, it presents the opportunity for a significant bullish divergence.

As Van Metre has stated many times over the past few months, the market’s not expecting, and not in position for a dollar rally.

How can it be … with the rabid gold bulls thrashing about with each upward blip in GLD, GDX and GDXJ.

From this site’s perspective, we’re staying away from that (gold) market and have focused on biotech … where things are really getting underway; but now, back to the dollar.

The weekly chart of UUP, shows the potential set-up.

If somehow we get a (narrow range) push below the 24-level, it would set up a clear bullish divergence on the MACD.

At this point, anything can happen.

Saying that gold will crash if the dollar launches upward is certainly possible. However, in today’s world, the opposite could happen as well.

Just one more reason to say away and focus on shorting an index that’s decisively moving lower: Biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).

Side Note:

The whole ‘divorce’ thing, you know what I’m talking about, could be a signal in disguise.

The ‘higher ups’ may have decided our cardigan wearing benefactor has reached the end of usefulness.

If so, how many biotech rats are now going to jump ship (before the paddy wagon arrives) knowing the jig is up?

Could that be why SPBIO, posted new lows in five time-frames; Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly and Yearly, last week?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.