Category Archives: IYR

Real Estate Reversal

October 3, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-24-05, Interest Rates, IYR, LABD, LABD-24-19, Real Estate, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Sudden Turn

Watch for failed moves.

When an apparent move fails, it tells you the other side’s exhausted.

That’s when the sharks move in.

It could be happening to IYR, right now; yesterday’s ‘reversal’ bar, has failed (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update on the sector, link here gave a head’s up, a reversal appeared likely.

Now, we have more confirmation with the failed move shown below.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Yesterday, IYR, had penetrated support (blue line) and was in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That spring (set-up) has failed.

Now, it gets interesting.

Bonds (TLT) continue lower with rates continuing higher; the exact opposite of what the public thinks is ‘supposed’ to happen.

Positioning

Naturally, with the above conditions a short was opened DRV-24-05, with the stop at DRV’s session low @ 23.89 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, the short on XBI (LABD-24-19) is not performing as expected. Today is lower but there’s no new daily low (as of 11:55 a.m., EST).

Position was exited with a loss of – 2.48%.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Rolls Over

September 26, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, TLT 2 Comments

Ruh, Roh

The bond market’s reversed; rates are moving higher.

Real estate’s bid up as if rates are heading lower, not higher; what could go wrong?

It’s been seven consecutive lower closes (rates higher) in the bond market, TLT, starting before the Fed has its conference last Wednesday.

This morning, bonds, TLT have just posted another daily low; if it stays there, will make it a Fibonacci eight days of consecutive lower closes.

Let’s cut to the chase and go to real estate.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

We’re right at the trendline and threatening lower.

Declining volume implies the energy and commitment to higher prices is fading (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell 2000, Search for ‘Danger’

August 19, 2024 By in David Weis, DRV, DRV-24-03, IWM, IYR, Real Estate, Russell 2000, TZA, TZA-24-01, Wyckoff

Testing at The Axis

At this juncture, Russell 2000, IWM is not only looking for The Danger Point®, but at the close of this session, it’s there.

While everyone else is breathlessly calling the ‘end of the correction’, we’re working the market from a strictly objective standpoint.

That is, what’s the market saying about itself?

With that, take a look.

Russell 2000, ETF IWM

“What do you see?”

Well, it appears that we’re at the point where it can go either way.

It’s as if the ‘weight of a feather’ could move the market (Wyckoff, 1910).

Positioning

From a positioning standpoint, this is where the risk is least for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Low risk does not mean no risk. It just means a potential inflection point.

Housekeeping

As stated in this update, the short trade via DRV, had a tight stop. That position was exited early in the session with a ding (loss) of about 4%.

Moving on to the market at hand.

David Weis mentored his students to look for trades at the ‘edge of the lake’.

We’re there with the price action of IWM. Several attempts (up to a point) to position short are to be expected (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Update: Ins & Outs

August 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-24-03, IYR, LABD, LABD-24-17, Real Estate, SPBIO, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Biotech and Real Estate

Those monitoring this site are witnessing the search (for the short entry) in real time.

As said in the prior update, just because Fibonacci lines up, both in time and distance, does not guarantee anything.

From a Wyckoff perspective, as a result of Wednesday’s XBI price action penetrating the prior days’ low, and then stopping dead, there was a probability of a (minor) spring … which we got the very next day.

By the way, that upward move (yesterday) carried the XBI, near another Fibonacci retrace level: 61.8%.

As a result, the LABD-24-17, was exited with about a 3.6% loss (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, on to the action at hand.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Depending how price action progresses, we’ll go into more detail on the technical condition.

Today printed a new daily low and we have an MACD (bearish) crossover still in effect.

Trade action was to go short via DRV with a representative stop (for DRV) one tick above the IYR high: 95.96 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Admittedly, it’s a tight stop and that’s the point.

If IYR turns and starts to exhibit buoyancy, we don’t want to hang around.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Right’ & ‘Wrong’ Answers

August 13, 2024 By in DRIP, DRIP-24-01, DRV, DRV-24-02, IYR, Oil & Gas, Real Estate, Wyckoff, XOP 2 Comments

Lead By Example

Every day, the tape prints one more clue to the next probable direction.

The next probable direction.

Part of an experienced speculator’s pre-market prep is to know from the prior session, the ‘correct’ answer for the current session.

That is, if a set-up has materialized, then subsequent price action will have a specific or variation of a specific pattern.

If the pattern posts on the tape, we have the ‘right’ answer. If not, probabilities are saying ‘no’ at this point.

Of course, the hard part and according to Wyckoff, it laterally takes many years of observing and working with price action to know what to expect.

Real Estate, ‘Wrong’

This morning’s session in real estate, IYR did not post the ‘right’ answer from a short standpoint. A lower open and lower print was the expectation.

Therefore, DRV-24-02, was exited with just over a 2%, loss (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, oil and gas XOP, gave the ‘right’ answer.

Oil & Gas XOP, Daily

The circled price action is what we’re looking for (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s a lot going on with this chart.

If XOP continues lower and short, DRIP-24-01, is not stopped out or exited, we’ll re-visit this action with further updates (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer herexop

Real Estate … Tops-Out?

August 12, 2024 By in Dr. Elder, DRV, DRV-24-02, FAZ, FAZ-24-01, Financial Sector, IYR, Real Estate, XLF, ZeroHedge

Series of Lower Highs

Real estate may have been held up by the expectation of lower rates.

With those rates, it’s been on-again, off-again, then back on again, only to go back off again.

Let’s not forget the real possibility, the entire dataset (employment, jobless claims et al.) could be fake. 🙂

So, it’s a good thing with Wyckoff, we’re not looking at so-called ‘data’ but the truth; the price action itself.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

We’ve got a series of lower highs.

No doubt, the price action is very subtle … slowing eroding away without much fanfare.

With this morning’s session, we have a new daily low.

If short, a good place for a stop would be yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Housekeeping.

From the last post on XLF, today’s session has essentially been a combination of the two scenarios.

As a result (and according to the trading plan), the short FAZ-24-01, was closed with a marginal profit of 0.62%.

The sector may still go into a sustained decline. However, it did not perform to expectations and therefore, exited.

As Elder said years ago, ‘when in doubt get out.’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Deep Kimchi Decision

April 27, 2024 By in Biotech, Bloor Street Capital, Ed Dowd, Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, NEM, Real Estate, XBI 3 Comments

Time To Round Up, The Loonies?

If there’s one market attracting huge numbers of grifters, carpetbaggers, peddlers, and all-around crazies, it’s precious metals.

I’ve been hearing from this crowd, ‘the government’s going to collapse, the dollar’s going to collapse’, since the early 1980s.

As said many times before, I like precious metals as much as the next guy.

However, from a strategy standpoint, with each passing day, we see it’s the food supply (here, and here) that comes first (not advice, not a recommendation).

What’s currently taking place is so much more complicated (in my opinion) than just ‘stacking’.

Let’s not forget the flood of ‘fake’ or ‘diluted‘ precious metals and other chicanery; like having your coin-shop bank account closed for no apparent reason.

Well, we have to keep the loonies on the path which brings us to our case in point, Newmont Mining, NEM.

Newmont, Good News is Bad News

Gold price has moved higher over the past four to five months and expectedly, that’s been noted in Newmont’s latest Quarterly release, link here.

NEM, stock price at ‘nine-month highs’, what’s not to like?

It’s when we look at the chart, we see a different story.

Newmont Mining, NEM, Weekly

After all the ‘good news’, NEM has only retraced an anemic 23.6%, of its overall downside move.

Note the close on Friday was right at the 23.6% level, giving it even more significance.

This level has also become an ‘axis line’ as exhibited by price action going back to August of 2022.

By The Numbers

When looking through the major sectors, retrace (and reversal) from 23.6%, is becoming more frequent.

Two other indices posting and reversing from that level (measured from recent highs), are biotech XBI, and real estate, IYR.

NEM, What’s Next?

Thursday, 4/25, was a wide bar with heavy volume.

We’ve stopped at the retrace, which is also resistance, confirmed by price action in late December. ’23.

A reasonable expectation is NEM, retraces, testing the wide bar and volume before continuing to the downside or moving back higher to a breakout (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Fed Leader … or … Fed Follower

March 24, 2024 By in Bonds, CVNA, David Weis, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, KMX, Prechter, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff

Which Is It?

Right along with the current narrative, ‘The Fed’s going to cut rates’, is another narrative, ‘The Fed’s in charge, a leader, and sets rates’.

Is either one, actually true?

Years ago, Robert Prechter Jr. pointed out very convincingly, the Fed’s a follower, not a leader.

His research showed, over many years, the Fed consistently follows the market.

Along with that, was his premise, ‘The market leads the news, not the other way around’.

Using that, we’ll look at what the Fed’s likely to do next; let’s use the long-term view, the 10-Year Treasury.

What’s it telling us?

Macrotrends Historical Chart: Ten Year Treasury

As posted in the prior update, the 40-yr bond bull market, i.e., lower rates, is over (not advice, not a recommendation).

We see the upside reversal in rates (downside for bonds) took over 10-years to set up.

Rates pushed below established support into a Wyckoff spring condition, then reversed higher, then into an outright breakout.

Currently, we’re hovering around in ‘no-man’s land’.

Could rates dip lower (bonds higher) and we get a token rate cut in response from the Fed?

Well, as David Weis used to say, ‘Anything can happen’.

Strategy First

However, from a strategic standpoint and for the long-term, higher rates are more probable.

The market has already responded with interest rate sensitive sectors and stocks (IYR, KMX, CVNA, etc.), having peaked long ago, in 2021.

A Dangerous Game

Depending on one’s perspective, what’s going on here with interest rates, is a dangerous game of ‘chicken’.

As Uneducated Economist puts it, the Fed’s a ‘credible threat’; all they have to do is ‘talk’ and propose (i.e., threaten) to move rates and the market responds without the Fed actually doing anything.

It’s working, for now.

The Emperor Has No Clothes

The problem is, as Prechter has already shown with research done years ago, ‘the emperor has no clothes’.

The Fed does not control rates at all; it’s a follower, only doing what the bond market’s telling it to do.

For some reading this, it’s old news.

For others, it’s a shock to find out, yet another institution is not what you thought it was.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

December 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AMT, Biotech, BOIL, Bonds, CVNA, DRI, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, LABD, Natural Gas, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, UNG, Usual Suspects, WEAT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Everything Happening At Once?

Not in any particular order; not advice and not a recommendation.

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the 80’s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

No. 2 Natual Gas UNG, is reversing. We’ll see whether or not there’s going to be a supply disruption.

No. 3 The semiconductors SOXX, now have a monthly bearish MACD divergence; daily and the weekly indicators posting even to prior tops (as of Friday’s close). 

No. 4 Components of biotech index XBI, are being shuffled around faster than deck chairs on the Titanic … or, the Olympic 🙂

Seems like a mad dash to add/remove, increase, reduce equities to prop things up. We’ll see how that turns out. Currently, XBI is right at resistance level, 86.50 – 87.0

Here’s just one example from an index, riddled with equities that have no P/E.

No. 5 Carvana is very close to posting new highs and potentially, running the stops.

No. 6 Has Darden Restaurants, topped out? 

The consumer is certainly tapped-out and no-one ‘needs’ a restaurant.

No. 7 Wheat is reversing; It is and has always been about the food supply.

No. 8 Gold, GLD, is currently not going higher (look at the divergences); silver (SLV) is in a major non-confirmation, down nearly – 55%, from all-time highs.

During the 1980s inflation, precious metals moved (upward) together.

Silver looks like it’s responding to the destruction/collapse of (economic) demand.

No. 9 American Tower (AMT), number two in the IYR index, posts a clear false breakout and reversal. 

If rates really are going (materially) lower, interest rate sensitive real estate should continue going higher, right?

No. 10 Which brings us to the bond market, TLT. 

Price action broke above established resistance, currently hovering above that level. 

It’s at The Danger Point®

We can see the set-up, a price action pattern repeated time and again, between the lower and upper blue lines, called a ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

While the media laughs at the bears, let’s just see how this all works out.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Turnaround Tuesday?

November 21, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, Real Estate, SLV, SPBIO, SRS-23-04, XBI, zsl, ZSL-23-01 1 Comment

Possible Reversal During The Holiday Week

While no-one’s looking, markets tend to reverse.

Typically, that happens before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Perhaps, the most famous of these was the day after Labor Day Weekend, September 3rd, 1929, the all-time high up to that point.

Adding substance to the assertion, the all-time high (thus far) for the S&P 500, was January 4th, 2022, with the closing high the day before.

So, here we are in the midst of the Thanksgiving holiday week. Is the market going to reverse?

Biotech SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI, Daily

The November 3rd, update showed the target area for biotech ($SPSIBI).

Price action decisively penetrated that area yesterday and then immediately started to retrace.

As of this post (10:12 a.m., EST), price action has printed a new daily low.

Positioning

As stated in this update, the coming week was likely to see adjustments to open short positions.

The Real Estate (SRS-23-04) and Silver (ZSL-23-01) shorts have been closed, with the biotech (LABD-23-13) position increased (not advice, not a recommendation.

The Hard Stop for LABD-23-13, is LABD 17.62 but will likely be moved to the session low, currently LABD 18.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279