Category Archives: SPBIO

The Largest ‘Squeeze’, Ever

November 12, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, 2010 Flash Crash, Biotech, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-05, LABD, LABD-22-10, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

A Market Of Extremes

So, this is how it’s going to be.

The market itself is telling us it’s not going to be ‘well behaved’, possibly for years to come.

According to Goldman, link here, we’ve just had the largest short squeeze on record.

Friday, must have pushed it over the edge from the previously reported, ‘third largest‘.

The ‘Pontificators’

Everybody think’s they’ve got it figured out; We’re going to have stagflation, no wait, hyperinflation, no wait, inflation/deflation simultaneously, no wait, dollar collapse, no wait, gold to the moon, no wait, and on it goes.

What we really have, which is obvious to those ‘awake‘, is something that’s never happened before.

That ‘something‘ is here every day, multiple times a day.

Flash Crash, 2010

Every so often just as a reminder, this event is posted as an example; until that day, it never happened before either.

“Paper comes in, a big seller!!!”

 ‘Paper’ is essentially anyone (banks, hedge-funds, institutions, and/or retail) outside the pit.  Those in the pit are called ‘locals’.

Positioned At The Extreme

The largest short squeeze in history has actually performed a public service; the markets are at extremes.

With that, the short position in Junior Miners GDXJ, has already been discussed, link here.

We’re going to move on and talk about the elephant; more specifically, biotech SPBIO.

Biotech SPBIO

The table shows last week’s action when compared to the week prior. All major sectors had solid gains but it’s the right-most column that’s of interest.

The right-side column shows how far price action closed above the prior week’s high.

Once again, biotech shows overall weakness. It gets more interesting when looking at the weekly chart.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

It’s been three successive weeks of apparent up-thrust reversals that were negated each time.

Looking at the weekly below, what we have, is a huge bear flag that just so happens to be, Fibonacci 8-Weeks wide.

It’s possible, this congestion area is the mid-point of the overall move from the highs set during the week of February, 2021.

Compressing the chart and putting in a measured move target gives us the following.

If we have an actual Head & Shoulders top, that target is shown as well.

Either way, the downside potential is enormous; thus, requiring intense focus from a Wyckoff standpoint, i.e., during a bear market, identify the weakest sector for short opportunities (not advice, not a recommendation).

All of which brings us to positioning.

Positioning

On Friday, a discretionary exit was made from the entire LABD-22-09 position as (LABD) price action continued to decline with no end in sight.

Loss on the LABD-22-09, series was a drubbing of -12.2%

Then again, last week was the largest squeeze in history; taking that into account, the loss wasn’t -30% or -50%.

As the trading day progressed, LABD price action continued lower until low-and-behold, it reversed.

Once again, a position was entered (not advice, not a recommendation) but this time was different. Frist off, initial position size is smaller; about 60% smaller.

Secondly, the stop is an actual order that’s in the market (shown below).

Sounds obvious but we’re dealing with unprecedented times and market disruptions. Recall during the Flash-Crash of 2010, Kimberly Clark, or Colgate (if memory serves) went ‘no-bid’ and printed i.e., sold for 0.01.

That low print remained on the charts for years until it was ultimately removed.

If it can happen on the downside (i.e. when long), it can happen on the upside as well (when short).

Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-10***:

Entry @ 18.1398***: Stop @ 16.83***

JDST-22-05***

Entry @ 9.1666***: Stop @ 8.79***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Short Squeeze … 3rd Largest, Ever

November 11, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, SPBIO, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Is It Over?

ZeroHedge reports, the third largest ever.

So, is it over?

Starting tomorrow, we’re about to find out.

When looking at biotech sector (SPBIO) on a close basis, today’s action stopped just short of making a new closing high since the up-thrust (reversal) of October 28th.

Effectively, it’s a test of that reversal.

On to the analysis.

SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re going to put the chart below with no mark-up; then invert to show the potential trade set-up.

SPBIO, Daily Close, Inverted

Now, we’re inverted and marked to show penetration below support and then, today’s test.

The zoom gets closer-in.

The market is stretched, no doubt.

In a way, it’s a good thing. Either the test will hold and SPBIO, will decline from here (in earnest) or there’s something else going on and we’ll exit to look for another trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

As stated, in the prior update, LABD-22-09, position size was reduced during the session by about 10%.

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65, 22.16, 22.75 Stop @ TBD***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Biotech (Short) Test

November 10, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, Dow 30, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, SPBIO, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Proverbial ‘Gut-Check’

It looks bad for being short biotech and maybe it is.

However, as we’ll see below, the leveraged inverse fund LABD, could be completing its reversal set-up.

While today’s thrust higher in the overall markets was not unexpected (shown here and here), one should take note of the violence.

As of this post, from yesterday’s low to today’s high, the Dow has moved over 1,000-pts.

It’s what happens next that’s important.

Weak shorts are probably terrified, have covered, now wondering what went wrong.

So, let’s take a look at the short position on biotech SPBIO, and see if it really is ‘wrong’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, Daily

What we can see (above) is that LABD, is following the Wyckoff Schematic near exact for a spring set-up.

It’s just that today’s move is especially sharp and so one would think the set-up has failed … not so fast.

Another reason to think we’re completing a test of the spring, is below. Today is Fibonacci Day 34, from the high (low on SPBIO), set on September 26th.

We also have a potential trading channel as well.

As this post is being created, LABD is hovering at its lows; currently (as of 1:30 p.m., EST) trading at 19.89

Summary

Yesterday was an important day but it was not obvious, and not (yet) directly related to the markets.

A report was released on ZeroHedge (link here) which essentially confirms what some of us in the proletariat have known for years … if not decades.

It’s now out in the mainstream.

How long before the ‘elephant’ makes its way there also?

If indeed we’re at a reversal test of biotech and if that test passes (SPBIO downside continues), the move has the potential to be historic.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Price action blew through the stop located at 20.21 and is now hovering at those levels. The LABD position is being maintained but will likely be reduced in size as we head into the close (not advice, not a recommendation).

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65, 22.16, 22.75 Stop @ 20.21

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Leaves The Station … Again

November 9, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, GOLD, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

How Many Times?

How many times does gold need to ‘leave the station‘, before it’s actually left?

That’s probably a better question to ask rather than freaking out every time there’s a blip higher.

Was the recent ‘blip’ tradeable? Yes.

Is the move sustainable to the upside … probably not but only price action will tell.

Did Wyckoff analysis give advance notice that gold (GLD), could move higher?

Yes, it did … link here and here.

That first link even shows how far GLD, is likely to go, which at this point, is just ticks away.

Gold GLD, Daily

We’ll start first with the original forecast.

And the result (as of 1:20 p.m., EST).

We can see price action nearing the up-thrust (reversal) location.

Note: Penetration to the upside above resistance, does not necessarily mean it’s a short opportunity.

Any opportunity will be determined by price action itself.

Summary

Wyckoff analysis not only can provide potentials for price movement; when that move happens, it can also be a stabilizing factor so that one is not caught up in the usual media hysteria.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, biotech sector (SPBIO) is still on track (ever so slowly) for a potential sustained move to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65, 22.16, 22.75*** Stop @ 20.21

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

November 6, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Food Supply, GDX, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Green Energy, ice-age-farmer, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, Prechter, QQQ, Real Estate, Russell 2000, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Speck, TSLA, XLF, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

What To Watch … Biotech, Gold, Real Estate, Tesla

Biotech:

There’re a lot of moving parts to biotech and it’s like a game of chicken.

Is there going to be another ‘planned’ event pulled out of the bag that requires ‘protection’ or will this side (and this one) win-out before that happens?

Price action’s always the final arbiter and right now, it’s positing lower.

Gold:

Gold (GLD) ‘blipped’ higher on Friday and the usual suspects are out touting the hyperinflation narrative.

Owning (some) precious metals seems to be a good thing.

However, the public constantly knee-jerks into this sector and is absolutely rabid in their behavior (i.e., silver stockpiles are running out!!!).

It suggests at least, there’s something else afoot.

Prechter published in the early 2000’s, Central Banks, are followers, not leaders. The fact they are buying gold at this point, may be a contrary indicator.

Talk about going against the herd. 🙂

Over and again, it’s the boring (does not generate ‘clicks’) food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate:

What can be said?

It’s the largest manufactured bubble in world history and it has already popped.

Thinking it’s all going to sort itself out in a year or two is delusional. We’ve probably got decades of bear market.

Tesla:

Anyone with an anode of research capability, knows the whole EV premise, is based on a falsehood.

However, that fact is probably not what’s going to bring Tesla (and the rest of the market) down.

Let’s stop for a moment and consider the above link which has been available for nearly four-years.

How many views? Just 9,824 (as of this post)

That equates to only 0.003% of the U.S. population.

As the global supply chains implode, getting parts and having stable infrastructure (i.e., electricity) will probably be the defining factor.

Now, on to the charts.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

The following sessions will let us know if we’re at the right edge of the downtrend line.

We’ve already had an up-thrust reversal and a test of that reversal. last Friday was lower … probabilities point down.

Gold GLD, Daily

Looking at the chart on the strategic, longer term, Friday’s blip is hardly noticeable. We’ve already presented how this could be a minor up-thrust (reversal) in itself.

To keep the upside intact, price action must remain and continue above current levels.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Real estate may be working its way into an up-thrust condition. As shown, Fibonacci Day 21 from the October 13th, low is this coming Thursday, the 10th.

According to the Economic Calendar there are several potential catalysts that may push the price above resistance (temporarily).

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

The short-term look has been presented here.

Longer term downside potential is disconcerting.

Major support near the 25-level.

Summary

When we look at last Friday’s action (table below), it’s clear SPBIO, was not part of the upside party.

Of course, we won’t know if it’s’ the downside leader until subsequent sessions.

In the meantime, the market positioning remains unchanged.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65 Stop @ 19.41

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Update … Watch The Tape

November 4, 2022 By in Biotech, GLD, LABD, LABD-22-09, Mike Yeadon, Positions, SPBIO 2 Comments

Potential Danger, For The Upside

It’s still in the early session and gold GLD, is trading higher … for now.

This morning, once GLD started to post on the tape, a new potential up-thrust (reversal) target became apparent.

The reason to think GLD, upside may be short-lived, just after the open, biotech began declining in earnest … signaling potential overall weakness for the rest of the market(s).

No one wants to talk about this sector and what’s really going on.

We don’t know when it’s all going to let loose but the pressures are immense and they continue to build.

Back to gold.

The daily chart of GLD, is below with the area in question, highlighted.

Gold GLD, Daily

Price action must get above and stay above the resistance area. Otherwise, it’s an up-thrust (reversal).

Other Markets & Biotech

Meanwhile, the biotech sector (SPBIO), is the first to post new daily lows. At this juncture, all other major indicies are higher.

Once again, as shown below, the short position via LABD, has been increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time. LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65*** Stop @ 19.41***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Relentless, Collapse …

November 3, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, SPBIO, The Speck, TMF, TMF-22-01 1 Comment

Jerrimiah Babe, Calls It

In probably his best video update since he stared in early 2015, he lays out the details of what’s ahead.

Although not well versed in the markets (and he says so), he has enough experience, life-knowledge, to understand the current potential and likely outcome.

That is, ‘relentless collapse’.

Those of us who have been getting ready for years, know that we still aren’t ready. How can anyone be fully ready for a complete systems breakdown.

One ‘system’ that’s set for implosion and has been since before ‘The Speck’, is biotech.

Biotech: Cue The Implosion

It’s been an on again, off again, back on, and so on, with this index (SPBIO).

Every day now, sometimes multiple times a day, we see the effects of their ‘protection’. Wheels are in motion and we’re most likely just getting started … for decades to come.

Yesterday’s Fed announcement, may have (finally) provided the up-thrust and reversal needed to get this index in a sustained down move.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

The daily chart shows the up-thrust test and reversal.

We’ll get into downside potential(s) in an upcoming post.

For now, the positioning remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 7.166, Stop @ 6.77

LABD-22-09:

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, Stop @ 18.69

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal Bellwether

November 1, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01, ZeroHedge

Is The ‘Collapse’ Back In Play?

When the market does not respond as expected, that means something else is happening.

Such may be the case for bonds.

Yesterday, we got this announcement during market hours.

Of course, the already hammered bond market (TLT), got hammed some more.

It’s what happened next, and what’s happening today, that’s important.

That is, the sell-off was quickly reversed (to the upside) with that upside continuing this session.

The bond supply is being absorbed.

So, what does that mean?

It’s possible, the bounce, melt-up, squeeze or whatever one wants to call it could be over. There may already be a ‘flight to safety’ if there’s such a thing these days.

But let’s not hypothesize on what could be happening. The market itself (price action), tells us.

Bonds TLT, Daily

At about mid-session, this is where we are.

We’re right at the downtrend line.

The attempt to mover lower (yesterday), has been rejected.

As a result of today’s new daily high, the stop on position TMF-22-01, has been moved up (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, we’re now between the downtrend and the ‘rejection’; something’s likely to break.

Summary

The S&P (SPY) just posted an up-thrust reversal early this session and is still moving lower as of this post.

Keep in mind, all of this is happening before any Fed announcement … as if the market has already decided.

A quick note on biotech, SPBIO.

Position size has been increased in SPBIO, leveraged inverse LABD, as shown below (not advice, not a recommendation).

This sector remains at The Danger Point®

If the bounce really is over, biotech is likely to get hit the hardest.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 7.166, Stop @ 6.77***

***, Indicates change

LABD-22-09***

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71***, Stop @ 18.69***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Set-Up Details … Real Estate

October 22, 2022 By in 1929, DRV, DRV-22-05, Economic Ninja, GDX, IBB, IWM, IYR, Positions, QQQ, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, Scott Walters, SLV, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

At A ‘Confluence’

The last update, posted late in the session, said with the upward bias provided by the sizable Op-Ex event, we can look for the weakest (or one of the weakest) sectors.

The chart below summarizes yesterday’s action:

Friday 10/21/22, Single Day Gains

Gold miners GDX, is the outlier at the top and real estate IYR, the outlier at the bottom.

Before anybody gets excited about ‘hyperinflation’, just a reminder; silver SLV’s, action has retraced to a weak 38.2% (chart not shown), as it was forecasted to do from last week’s update:

“Silver (SLV) is currently at support levels; therefore, some upward action (staying below SLV: 18.5) is normal behavior.”

Price action is the final arbiter; we’ll see what happens next.

Back to real estate.

Professional Wisdom: ‘The Crash’

We’re going to use the experience and insight provided by Scott Walters concerning the potential for real estate; that is, we’re in a world-wide event the scale of which, no one alive (and possibly, ever) has seen before.

The Economic Ninja has just seconded that opinion (time stamp 3:45) with his quote:

“Right now, we are in the greatest collapse since The Great Depression; and I believe it will be as severe, if not worse, sharper, faster, than what people experienced in 1929”.

So, what would that ‘collapse’ look like on a chart of real estate, IYR?

Ah, yes. That’s the hard part.

To take useful wisdom like that above, and somehow map it into potential market behavior.

For that, we’re going to use the Quarterly chart of IYR.

Real Estate IYR, Quarterly

There are still two months and one week left to go in the 4th, Quarter.

We’re at a confluence of price action as we’ll cover in the Hourly chart farther down; first, what’s the potential?

Here is one artist’s rendition (not advice, not a recommendation).

That puts it into perspective.

We may know at the very next open, if we’re pivoting higher or continuing the decline.

Butterfly In The Amazon

Of course, the market’s not going to tell anyone its next move. We have to decipher that (read the tape) ourselves.

Sometimes, as Wyckoff said a century ago … ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather is all that’s needed, to push the market further or to reverse.’

So, let’s look at that feather (the butterfly) on the hourly chart.

Since we’re positioned short (DRV-22-05), the chart’s inverted to mimic leveraged inverse fund DRV.

Real Estate IYR, Hourly (Inverted)

The important part is we see a repeating pattern of trendlines.

Moving in closer, we have this. The blue arrow is ‘expected’ action based on the analysis up to this point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving even closer, the zoom shows IYR, finished the day in Wyckoff spring position; having pushed past minor support (resistance on non-inverted).

Summary

If IYR opens lower or gap-lower, we’ll have to wait and see if it posts a new daily low (below IYR ,77.24).

If that happens, we have some confirmation lower prices are ahead and can then set a definitive stop for DRV-22-05.

Obviously, a higher open (pushing past IYR 78.91), negates the trade.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … The Set-Up

October 21, 2022 By in Biotech, Dow 30, DRV, DRV-22-05, IYR, Nasdaq, Positions, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, Scott Walters, SPBIO 1 Comment

Looking For The ‘Reversal’ To Fail

The $2-Trillion Op-Ex today, provided upward bias for the overall markets.

Not expected, was biotech SPBIO, to be part of that move.

After today and possibly because of this announcement, we’re out of the sector until price action demands attention.

While the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ were up significantly for the day, obviously absent, was real estate (IYR).

Days like today help narrow the focus. Who is not participating in the up move?

While the other indices are up multiple percentage points, IYR, finished the day up only +0.69%.

Real Estate (IYR) Weekly

The prior linked YouTube post from Scott Walters is not the premise for going short (not advice, not a recommendation).

It is, however, a reminder that what’s going on, is at a level no one has seen before.

Unless IYR, somehow gets out of the channel, it’s declining at -84%, annualized.

The set-up for this short trade (DRV-22-05) is based on a weak retrace (to 38.2%) on the daily with the anticipation, today’s reversal bar will ‘fail’ at the next session.

Real Estate, (IYR) Daily

The expectation for the next session is straightforward; lower open or gap-lower open and posting a new daily low.

The chart of IYR below, shows what we’re looking for (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, a new daily high at the next session negates the set-up and warrants a trade exit.

A new daily low and we’ve got a ‘failure’ of the reversal bar; DRV-22-05, is liklely to be increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279