Category Archives: USO

Last Time, Was ’29

March 14, 2026 By in 1929, 2007 - 2008, Alice Cheung, GLW, GLW-26-01, GLW-26-02, GLW-26-03, GLW-26-04, GLW-26-05, GLW-26-06, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Oil, S&P 500, SPY, USO, YouTube Black Swan Tags: , ,

Hundred-Year Extremes

Going all the way back, this link, shows we’ve gone beyond 1929 levels.

It seems, nearly every recession (depression) gets kicked off with a spike in oil prices.

In 2008, USO peaked during the week of July 11, that year.

However, the damage was done.

The S&P (SPY) was already in decline, having peaked the week of October 12th, a year earlier.

Another Extreme

Not to be outdone with the valuation extreme, we have the mutual fund cash extreme at this link.

Mutual fund managers are ‘all-in’, Time Stamp 4:15 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, there’s ‘private credit’, link here.

Now, on to the trade du jour.

Corning GLW, Weekly

As GLW, was breaking out from generational highs, three attempts were made to short; result, small losses.

Adjusting Behavior

The most important take-away, is the behavior change as a result of losing entries; that is, stand-aside.

As said many times on this site:

“There’s nothing wrong with being wrong. It’s being wrong and staying wrong that’s the problem”

Once the Fibonacci sequence was identified, link here, short positioning continued.

Next Steps

Anything can happen.

For the chart above, the stop on the -06, trade is last Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that high as minor resistance, there’s also the weekly high at 139.63, for additional ‘protection’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 15, 2025 By in CLN25, GCQ25, Oil, Oil & Gas, SIN25, USO

Gold, Silver & Oil

As of 7:12 p.m., EST, gold futures GCQ25 are steady-to-up, about +0.42%.

Silver futures SIN25, are flat +0.08%, so neither metal is moving decisively.

Oil is a different story.

Futures CLN25, had a gap-higher open, printing just below last Friday’s high of 77.62.

In just the hour so from the open, that contract is now retracing lower, nearing Friday’s close.

That means, when looking at the chart of USO below, current price action is within the upper range of Friday’s trading.

United States Oil Fund, USO, Daily

The last update on oil, had this:

“If oil and related markets like XOP, can’t hold or surpass those highs, well then, we have our answer (not advice, not a recommendation).”

Friday’s volume was characteristic of a blow-off move.

As noted on the chart, last time there was comparable volume, printed over three years ago; USO peaked, retraced, made slight new highs, then sideways-to-down, for years.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corn, Nat-Gas, Oil, … Higher

January 12, 2025 By in Corn, GLD, Gold & Silver, Inflation, Oil, Oil & Gas, Palladium, Platinum, SLV, SOYB, USO Tags: , , , ,

A Commodity Rotation?

Those commodities, along with soybeans, palladium, platinum, and yes, gold and silver, have rotated higher in unison, over the past one-to-two weeks.

Is it just a coincidental blip or is there something else?

Each may have their own narrative like the ever-present and (super) simplified mantra for gold, ‘inflation’.

What about silver, platinum and palladium?

They have not followed in the (real inflation) footsteps of late 70s and early 80s, where all were moving in tandem.

This time, only gold is at or near all-time highs.

This update is just noting the rotating action of all the commodities discussed.

Further analysis, to come

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Trend & Channel

September 16, 2024 By in Natural Gas, Oil, Oil & Gas, UNG, USO

Bottom Pattern, ‘W’

Nat-Gas is in a trend and potential channel.

Going back to this post, one reason given for continued lower prices in Nat-Gas, was the high price of oil: with Nat-Gas being a by-product of oil production.

Since that post, oil prices (USO) have dropped, and Nat-gas prices are on the rise.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily

The two dashed black lines are trend and channel.

There’s also a ‘W’ bottom formed; if broken to the upside, targets the ‘Measured Move’ as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil Bounce … Part II

August 23, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DRIP, DRIP-24-02, Federal Reserve, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, IWM, Oil, Oil & Gas, Russell 2000, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX, TZA, TZA-24-01, USO, XOP

Is This It?

We’ve gone form “Not Happening” to this morning’s action; ‘maybe it’s happening?’

As was done with Oil & Gas exploration XOP, we’ll now take a look at the oil patch itself and proxy, USO.

Oil tracking Fund, USO, Close

“What do you see?”

Marking up the chart.

We either have the ‘tradable bounce‘, or a potential contact point for the right-side channel line (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Fed announcement is just out, essentially accommodating a rate cut in September.

There was talk of some ‘cooling’ in the market (Ya think?).

With that, demand for oil seems like it would take a hit putting it lightly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning.

The market itself is telling us where to go and what to do.

The important item for the day; what is the market not doing? Specifically, the Semiconductors, SOXX.

The SOXX, has not made a new (daily) high (at least, not yet) after the Fed’s announcement; it can even be seen as the ‘proverbial gut-check’, a la David Weis.

With that, all other positions have been closed save the short in the semiconductors via inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Danger Ahead

The ‘rate cut’ has yet to happen and September is a long way away.

It can’t be re-iterated enough how dangerous is this environment; prices stretched via a narrative that’s false (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil … Where’s The Bounce?

August 21, 2024 By in DRIP, DRIP-24-02, Great Depression 2.0, Oil, Oil & Gas, USO, XOP, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Not Happening

There’s no oil bounce.

Not happening (not yet anyway).

Instead, oil looks like it’s heading off a cliff.

Weren’t we supposed be forming some kind of ‘tradable bottom’ because the sellers were accumulating?

That kind of bottom-think may have worked under more ‘normal’ conditions.

However, it should be obvious to all (with some still clueless), we’re not in normal conditions.

Hedge funds dumping oil, giving a heads-up, demand collapse is either coming or is already here.

Great Depression 2.0

Presented many times on this site (click sidebar ‘Great Depression 2.0’, for a list of posts) that we’ve likely gone straight past ‘recession’, into depression (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that’s even remotely true, we should see demand collapse in heavy duty areas of the economy like trucking, right along with job implosions.

Oh, wait, here it is … and here it is, again. 🙂

Back to the oil patch. Let’s include exploration and production (XOP) posting lower as well.

Oil & Gas: Exploration, Production, XOP, Daily Close

The last position short XOP, via DRIP was stopped-out for a minimal -1.24%, loss.

Re-positioned via DRIP during yesterday’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade labeled as DRIP-24-02.

The purpose of the prior channel notation is to show, XOP will at times exhibit channel (trending) behavior.

There’s only one right side (verified) contact on the latest channel, the magenta arrow.

However, the overnight market (10:57 p.m., EST) has oil futures continuing lower.

The expectation is for some follow through (downward) on the XOP, at the next session (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds, Oil & The Squeeze

August 13, 2024 By in Bonds, DRIP, DRIP-24-01, Oil, Oil & Gas, TLT, USO, Wyckoff, XOP, ZeroHedge

Bond Market Model?

According to this just out from our financial press, hedge fund managers have reduced holdings of Brent crude futures to ‘lowest levels on record’.

That condition supposes some kind of bullish bias and potential upside reversal.

Never mind the chart only goes back to 2011.

So, it’s really ‘the lowest in thirteen years’.

That’s hardly the hundred years or so, one would infer without digging deeper.

The Bond Model

Let’s not forget, bonds had a similar ‘maximum short‘ condition back in 2020.

Back then (like now), the ‘max-short’ was supposed to result in some kind of history making squeeze.

The result? It never happened.

Instead, bonds collapsed, rates launched higher and here we are today.

With that, let’s look at oil proxy, USO.

U.S. Oil Fund, USO, Daily

As of today’s action, it’s not looking too good for the bulls (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s somewhat self-explanatory.

Price action is in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ position and with today’s reversal, appears to be confirming (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the earlier post stated, I’m already short the sector, DRIP-24-01, with a definitive stop defined as yesterday’s XOP high (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the ‘max short’ for oil really is the pre-cursor to an upward squeeze, we may be about to find out very soon.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil Backs Off … Nat-Gas Bottoms

April 17, 2024 By in Natural Gas, Oil, Oil & Gas, Prechter, UNG, USO

All, In Just Three Days

Let’s get started with where we left off, with oil.

The last update said this:

‘largest bullish positions, gasoline futures and options’

The one before that, said this:

‘ … we’re at the 161.8%, projection and USO is hesitating; at the same time, Nat-gas, UNG, appears to be forming a long-term bottom’

The implication was: We’re at a Fibonacci level in USO, while the ‘herd’ has positioned themselves (massively) long and Nat-Gas appears to be reaching a (potential) long-term low.

Three trading days later, we have this:

Oil Tracking Fund USO, Weekly

If you look closely, the grey dashed line, the Fibonacci 161.8% projection, is just visible and extends out of the green line, highlighting that level.

A possible, nascent reversal.

Way back in 1902, after studying the markets intently, Wyckoff, discovered the following (paraphrasing):

‘Forces were at work, moving prices around, independent of any fundamentals, not connected to any valuations.’

Nearly, a century later, Prechter says this as well in one of his many interviews (paraphrasing, again).

‘If somehow, I was able to give you the newspaper headlines for tomorrow, you would not be able to tell me if the market was going to go up or down’.

The media is presenting oil (gasoline) and Nat-Gas prices as inversely correlated. Looking at the topping chart of USO and the bottoming chart of UNG, it’s believable … for now.

Downward thrust in Nat-Gas UNG, appears to be exhausting itself after a 20-month, bear market.

Risk is never zero, but currently appears to be at a low for UNG (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Breakdown … Is This It?

April 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Dr. Elder, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, LABD, SPBIO, UNG, USO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

‘Respecting’ Fibonacci … So Far

Before we get started, biotech may have decisively turned the corner to the downside with this, just out … maybe.

‘Zero Respect For Thieves’

Before we get started, with getting started, a brief mention on thievery.

Years ago, Dr. Elder stated he had ‘zero respect for thieves’; those who had stolen his book tile, ‘Trading For A Living’, in various forms.

When you have limited skills and even less insight, thievery is the only way to go … that is, until you’re found-out.

Turns out, the analysis of silver SLV, posted on this site (here and here) nearly two weeks ago, specifically the presence of SLV volume ‘spikes’ at inflection points, may have been ‘lifted’ without citation by a prominent YouTuber (who will not be named … yet).

It may have been just a coincidence. If so, all is well. However, a ‘second time’, not so much. So, let’s all play ‘nice’ shall we? 🙂

Now, on to biotech.

Biotech, XBI, Daily

This update is being released just before the open. It looks like XBI, is about gap-lower.

We see in the chart, XBI, is respecting the Fibonacci projections.

As with the recent oil market analysis and USO, (here and here) we let the market decide what areas are important.

In the case of XBI, and unless significant demand comes in, lower prices appear to be the most probable direction (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bullish … ‘, Gasoline Futures

April 14, 2024 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, UNG, USO 2 Comments

The Crowd Bets On Higher Prices

Just a few hours after the update on Nat-gas and oil was released, we have this from ZeroHedge, link here.

‘largest bullish positions, gasoline futures and options’

So, what do we think is going to happen next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279