Category Archives: ZeroHedge

Biotech Disconnects & The Claus

December 23, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IWM, LABD, Positions, Russell 2000, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, TZA, TZA-22-02, Vernon Coleman, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Naughty or Nice ?

Biotech price action’s disconnecting from the rest of the market.

Around the last Fed meeting, biotech separated from the major indices, heading the opposite direction, i.e., sideways to higher.

We’ll see that as we get into the snapshots of the hourly charts (below), but first several clues on why biotech (so far) isn’t going along.

The Next Plan Rolls Out

First up is this, just out on ZeroHedge.

It appears the next push is on … and the target is the kids. Another wave of ‘protection’ is certain to boost profits.

Note: Those commenting on ZH have been ‘awake’ from the start; an invaluable resource.

Next up is this, just out on BrandNewTube; another clear thinker that helps ‘tie it all together’.

Is this the explanation for biotech’s current behavior?

Strictly speaking and from a Wyckoff perspective, we won’t know the real reason for a move until it’s nearing the end.

What we can see, is that character of price action has changed (again).

With that, we’ll look at the 3X, leveraged inverse funds of two indices, Russell 2000 (TZA) and SPBIO (LABD).

TZA & LABD, Hourly

The disconnect has been a recent observation.

We’ll drill right down to the hourly and put the charts one on top of the other.

We can see that while inverse TZA, is now back up to the pre-squeeze high, inverse LABD, is far below that level.

That’s not to say things can’t change quickly.

For now, however, there may be something else going on that’s keeping the sector buoyant and suppressing the LABD, inverse fund.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Repeating (Short) Set-Up

December 21, 2022 By in David Weis, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

At The Extreme

Gold is at the extreme … again.

It’s also posting a repeating pattern; indicating a short set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

As presented over a year ago, that set-up is defined as what’s called (in Wyckoff terms), a spring-to-up-thrust.

Meaning, price action has a repeating tendency to go from one trade set-up to another.

We’ll go to the daily chart.

Gold GLD, Daily

The Changing of Hands, is included because as of yet, that (downside) reversal has not been decisively negated.

There’s no downside capitulation volume; indicating we’re on the other side (bullish side) of the current downtrend.

Now gold is at The Danger Point®. The ephemeral place where risk is least; price action can (easily) go either way.

So The Question Is, Which Way?

Here’s one perspective that’s reasonably balanced.

The theory is all about Central Banks … ok, if it works.

From a personal (trading) standpoint, the fundamental approach was abandoned years, if not decades ago.

Moving closer-in on the daily, we have the following.

Price action is struggling at resistance (upper blue line).

As stated in a prior update, if GLD, can’t hold and move above this level, it’s an indicator of potential serious trouble to the downside.

Of course, it goes without saying, the miners, GDX, GDXJ, are at similar danger points.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … The Five Stages of Reversal

December 18, 2022 By in GLD, Prechter, ZeroHedge

First, is Denial

We’re about to find out the truth of gold’s direction.

The last update showed a ‘blip’ above known resistance.

It’s been three trading days since then and gold (GLD), has yet to close above last Tuesday’s level.

Gold could head straight lower from here. However, the more likely outcome is a test of resistance.

The test, if it happens, may be the defining moment for gold on a go-forward basis.

Just to add some intrigue, we have yet another bullish forecast for gold.

How GLD, handles the test may let us know if it’s going to act just like the rest of the market. i.e., potentially head much lower.

Going back to the bullish article, it’s interesting the author references the Maginot Line.

In an odd ‘predictive programming‘ kind of way, referencing that support area in such a way, may actually put it into play.

That Was Then …

The Maginot Line was built (like most government projects), to handle a catastrophic event after the fact.

World War I had already happened. Whatever comes next (WWII), won’t be like what came before.

The same is true for the markets. It’s called the ‘rule of alternation’.

However, in the markets, anything can happen.

With that, let’s take a look at the most probable outcomes for gold.

Gold GLD, Daily

As of Friday’s close, GLD, is sitting right at the 38.2%, retrace from the ‘blip’ high posted on Tuesday, the 13th.

Getting all the way up to the resistance (blue line) would put GLD, at 61.8%, retrace.

Of course, powering through resistance changes the character of the action. If that happens, then maybe we really do have a bull market continuation.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Fake Data, Fake Market, Real Price

December 17, 2022 By in CVNA, Great Depression, Neil McCoy-Ward, NFLX, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

‘Head Fake’ … 1-million Jobs

Within the mirage of fake data, one thing’s not fake, the price.

The latest revelation about fake data, comes at this link, telling us something we already knew; the jobs data is a complete mirage.

What must be over a year ago, Neil McCoy–Ward, presented a series whereby he reviewed several individual, personal diaries, from The Great Depression.

From that series, no-one (in the public) seemed to know the extent of unemployment until much later.

The numbers were ‘hidden’ back then, just like now; what a coincidence.

The search, and need for the ‘truth’, becomes more clear by the day. In the markets, truth is the price and price only.

Apparently driving it home, revelation that chief cook and (woke) bottle washer Netflix, drank the Kool-Aid and overestimated advertising demand.

The last update on NFLX, stated there may be a rally to test the breakdown. So far, it hasn’t happened.

Last Thursday’s – 8.6%, ‘air-pocket’, may have been the kick-off to much lower prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s take another look at the big picture on Netflix.

Netflix NFLX, Weekly

Very quickly we see the overall (impulsive) direction of the market is down.

In Wyckoff terms, there’s what he called ‘ease-of-movement’, to the downside.

Next, we have a possible Head & Shoulders, top.

If NFLX, reverses from here all the way down to the neckline (blue line), and if it breaks that line, then we target the 40-area; that’s a lot of ‘ifs’.

Moving in closer on the daily chart, is the following:

Netflix NFLX, Daily

The wedge breakdown is clear.

There was an attempt to rally, if you can call it that, on Friday. So far, no significant upside action.

The zoom area shows price action still below the lower wedge boundry.

Netflix is different from our other potential implosion, short candidate (which proved correct), Carvana, CVNA.

That difference, Carvana sold a product for which there was an actual need, i.e., transportation.

Summary

It’s been just over a year since the CVNA, ‘No P/E’, report.

Carvana’s a slow-motion train-wreck; down over -98%, as of Friday’s close.

Netflix?

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Now, Comes Deflation

December 13, 2022 By in 1929, Biotech, GLD, LABD, LABD-22-14, Michael Cowan, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

The ‘Pivot’, No One Expects

Happy days are here, again!

So, the Fed can pivot, and the bull’s on again.

At least, that’s what the media wants us to believe. The CPI is out, and ‘inflation’ has slowed.

The problem is, as Michael Cowan stated in this update (he’s done the work), from here, it does not matter what the Fed does.

The decline (crash) or whatever you want to call it, is baked in the cake.

Once deflationary forces start, it becomes a juggernaut.

The previous update on gold (GLD) showed in multiple time frames, upward thrust energy is dissipating; in at least one case, (weekly) it’s also divergent.

Now that we’ve had yet another blip higher, as expected, it’s rabid bullishness in the gold camp.

So, let’s look at what GLD, is actually doing. What does the market say about itself?

Gold (GLD), Daily

One thing is for sure; GLD, is at The Danger Point®

If GLD can’t hold above (and move above) this level, it may be in serious trouble.

Let’s look at it a different way … the terminating wedge.

A ‘wedge’ is typically the last pattern in a move up or down, hence the name.

As this post is being created (12:23 p.m., EST), GLD continues to decline from its open; currently sitting right at the resistance (potential support) level at the 168-area.

In a separate market, biotech SPBIO, has completely reversed its opening spike and is now posting lower.

We’re still maintaining the LABD-22-14 trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s CPI print and resulting price action, may be the kick-off to an overall sustained and persistent decline.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Set-Up & Strategy

December 11, 2022 By in Dr. Elder, Flash Crash 2010, Food Supply, GLD, Oil, Russia, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Testing Underside Resistance

There’s no shortage of bullish prognostications for gold.

Said many times, as soon as there’s a blip higher, it’s near lunacy.

One of the latest installments is linked here and go figure … it’s the Russians, again!

Let’s get real.

Remember, the last time it was the Russians and the time before that?

From the date of the second link above in April, this year, gold (GLD) is down about -8.5%.

Not exactly a crash but definitely not a ‘paradigm shift the world has yet to fully process’.

Just from a contrary standpoint, if ‘everybody’s doing it’, there must be something else going on.

Let’s take a look at the actual facts, the price action, and see what it’s telling us.

Gold (GLD), Quarterly

Looking at the big picture first; the quarterly chart.

Elder’s Force Index (shown in the middle section) has been expanded to detail the thrust energy behind the move(s).

It’s important to note, for at least the past 10-Quarters, two and a half years, the upward thrusts have been successively declining in energy.

That decline is highlighted below.

Next, we’ll drill down to the monthly chart.

It shows GLD, trended (slightly) higher for at least sixteen-months, before breaking down.

GLD, Monthly

Now, as the right-most magenta arrow shows, we’re at the test of underside resistance.

Tests may pass or fail; obviously, what happens next is important.

Also note, as with the quarterly, upward Force Index on the monthly, is declining.

We’ll take it one step further and go the weekly … it too, has declining and also diverging upward thrust.

GLD, Weekly

Ok, you talked me into it. 🙂

Let’s go to the daily and see the same thing.

GLD, Daily

Does all this mean gold will immediately go lower at the next open?

The short answer … it’s not known. However, from a probability standpoint, lower is more likely than higher.

No ‘Capitulation’

There’s nothing to indicate downside capitulation.

Nothing like the ‘changing of hands’ that took place this past March 8th, here and here.

It appears we’re still in the initial stages of a long-term downside reversal.

Downside? … How’s downside, even possible?

‘What kind of idiot comes up with that type of analysis?’

Moving Parts, A-Plenty

Every day, we see things going on in the background that could not be known or fathomed; like missing $80 Trillion?

All it takes, is for some kind of sovereign debt or derivatives blow-up, requiring that country to sell its assets like gold, silver, oil, grains and so on.

A huge dump on the gold market, would of course trigger stops and that in itself, could result in a contagion of selling.

If or when it happens, the downside might be temporary like the Flash Crash of 2010, or oil going negative, or it could be longer.

The ‘powers’ don’t seem to be too concerned with precious metals demand, prices, and low stock of physical at the commodities exchange(s).

It’s as if they know, it will work itself out.

They’re on to something else more basic. Something ‘crude but effective‘ like destruction of the food supply.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There’s No … ‘Santa Rally’

December 8, 2022 By in Excess Deaths, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, The Epoch Times, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Forecasted Months Ago … Now, Playing Out

Let’s start with the post from way back in September, linked here.

Back then, it said (emphasis added):

“It’s going to be a very different place come December.

This won’t be like ’08 -’09, where all the stops are being pulled to ‘rescue’ the market.

No, this time really is different.

We can all see by now; the plan is controlled demolition.“

That was then. Fast forward to now.

ZeroHedge has come out with the obvious. If there’s going to be a Santa Rally, it needs to start soon.

Good luck with that.

Instead of looking for a rally, we’ve moved on from that (unlikely) potential to something different, linked here.

That link is not a forecast. It’s there to remind us, the potential for what can happen.

One group that just won’t let go of the (sustainable) rally scenario are the gold bugs.

Seems like with every ‘blip’ higher we have articles like this one, this one, and this one.

So, let’s take a look at a the largest cap in the mining sector, Newmont and see what the price action is telling us.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

First, we have the un-marked chart and right off the bat, it does not look good; down -45.4%, from all-time highs.

It looks even worse, when the resistance zone is added.

So far, price action has already stalled and not been able to hold within the resistance zone.

It’s important to note, this resistance area is over two years wide. it’s not likely that anything’s going to happen to the upside without numerous attempts.

No ‘Clicks’, In A Gold Bear Market

If buying gold was the answer to getting through the financial, economic and societal collapse, then one would think the price would be moving relentlessly higher.

That’s not happening … not by a long shot.

What is happening, is this: Demand destruction on a colossal scale.

This destruction is on the birth side and the death side.

These events are affecting everything, going forward.

Nailing The Reversals

Using Wyckoff analysis, this site has been able to identify reversals in gold and the miners at times, to the day.

Important pivot points are here, here, here, and here,

Once again, at this juncture, we’re at a potential reversal in silver, gold, and the miners.

It’s about 15-minutes before the open. NEM is trading slightly higher by about 1.00%.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Set-Up … Goldman, ‘Gives Up’

December 4, 2022 By in Biotech, DRV, DRV-22-06, Goldman, LABD, LABD-22-13, Positions, ZeroHedge

Right At The Pivot

That’s the way it looks at this point as we’ll see below.

The ZeroHedge article in question, is linked here.

You can see, it starts off (before being grey-ed out) with referencing the Non-Farm Payrolls report; a report, that another article calls ‘rigged’. So, there’s that.

With each passing day, it’s ever more apparent, price action itself, is telling us the most probable market direction.

Just to prove the point, Blackstone’s sending out a ‘talking points‘ memo to keep clients calm and help ‘guide the conversation’ … i.e., ‘thought shaping’.

Thoughts ‘shaped’ or take action.

For this update, we’re taking action; looking at what the real estate market is telling us.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

Let’s go back to the IYR, update from late October.

It showed the most probable direction; a move higher into a test, giving both the location, and the date.

Fast forward, to now:

We’re right at 38.2%, retrace and on time with Fibonacci Week-8, from the lows.

The daily chart shows a possible up-thrust (reversal) and test … the very same day that Goldman ‘gives-up’.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Not shown on the daily; from the lows, October 13th, to the (print) high, December 1st, is a Fibonacci 34 (+1) Days.

Volume increased on the reversal bar December 1st, and then contracted on the upward test the next day … pointing probabilities to the downside.

Printing a new daily low at the next session, will help confirm the reversal.

Summary

Let’s see what happens next.

The Goldman report may be contrary indicator; telling us the ‘professionals’ are throwing in the towel, changing their approach right at a potential top.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

LABD-22-13: Closed

It’s become apparent from this article; the truth, that was counted on as a tail-wind (for a short position) is not going to come out anytime soon.

Those that know, already know.

Moving on to other markets (below) that will be affected by the consequences of biotech.

DRV-22-06:

Short real estate IYR, via DRV (not advice, not recommendation)

Entry @ 48.39***: Soft Stop @ 47.53***, Hard Stop @ 45.11***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Forecast … Pivot or Not

December 1, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-13, Positions, SPBIO, ZeroHedge

Multiple Scenarios, Going Forward

The ability to see multiple scenarios is like a Rorschach Test.

With each additional tick on the chart, it takes on a different character.

So, let’s look at what’s most likely, based on where we are now with one of, if not the weakest sectors; biotech SPBIO.

For reference, we’ll start with the big picture … the weekly chart to show the two-month long, bear flag.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Next, is the daily for the past several months.

We’re at The Danger Point®; the test, where there’s not much distance between pass and fail.

Price action can (easily) go either way.

SPBIO, Daily

However, from a probability standpoint, we’ve been in a bear flag for months; the expectation is the test will pass, price action reverses and we get a downside breakout.

The hourly chart has the most likely potential outcome.

Pre-market action shows flat (as of 9:08 a.m., EST).

SPBIO, Hourly

The chart has two likely scenarios: one pass, one fail.

A less likely outcome is a straight up launch above resistance.

However, anything can happen.

Summary

With the Fed out talking hawkish again, we’ll say it again; there is no ‘pivot’.

Whether or not the press is intentionally miss-directing the narrative, in a sense, does not matter.

We’re looking at the price action.

Right now, it says, we’re at a dangerous spot and may be about to pivot (pun intended) to the downside.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

No change since yesterday.

Short position in SPBIO via LABD; details are as follows:

LABD-22-13:

Entry @ 18.72: Stop @ TBD

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pandora & Twitter, The Box Opens

November 29, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-12, Positions, SPBIO, The Speck, Twitter, Van Metre, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Fuel, For The Downside

With Twitter’s lifting of the ban on truth, linked here, we may be entering the next phase of collapse.

Whether or not it’s going to immediately show up in market price action, is unknown at this point.

Nascent Reversal?

The last update identified the markets were poised for potential reversal.

Two days later and we’re mostly down; that’s in spite of the supposed positive ‘machine’ bias as presented at this link.

A positive machine-market could still happen (data released tomorrow) but for now, price action itself, is posting lower; this is the crux of Wyckoff analysis … ‘What is the market saying about itself’.

In line with the truth being let out, not surprisingly, chief cook and bottle washer, biotech, is having a rough time.

Biotech Bear Market

Prior posts have documented the bear flag that’s been forming for over nine-weeks. Now, we have an apparent coiled action, ready for the downside.

Since we’re short this sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), we’re going to look at LABD, to identify the potential.

SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse, LABD

We have three charts, all depicting daily action.

The first (un-marked) chart is close-in and it looks like a mess. That is, until you put in trend lines and a Fibonacci count as shown on the second chart.

Adding the mark-up.

Then, keeping those trend lines intact, pulling farther out, we see the potential if there’s a sustained move.

Price action has been trading in a tight range over the past eight-days. Let’s see what happens next.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

Short position in SPBIO via LABD; details are as follows:

LABD-22-12:

Entry @ 19.9194, 20.91***: Stop @ 19.28***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279