Category Archives: Great Depression 2.0

Old Timer’s ‘Truth’

September 9, 2025 By in 1929, Bert Dohman, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, HOOD, HOOD-25-07, Kitco, Kitco News, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, ShadowStats, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Real Story

If there’s any one interview that details what’s really going on, it’s this, link here.

The 48-mintue Kitco session with Bert Dohmen, is much needed straight talk.

It’s all there:

Official data is fake. Markets will (likely) ‘trap’ bulls with massive gap-down. It’s 1929 (again). Crypto is an illusion. Silver/Gold will correct (temporarily) along with the markets. We’re surrounded by bought off media. The population (masses) don’t think or can’t think.

Adding to that are ideas and sources discussed for years on this site, like ShadowStats having ‘real’ data on unemployment and inflation.

The list goes on.

With all that said, let’s look at one of the sectors (retail brokers), that could be hit hard during a surprise downturn.

Robinhood HOOD, Daily

It’s important to note, price action late Friday, began to pull away from the lows … rising into the close.

Just after that close, the announcement, HOOD made it to the S&P.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something. That ‘something’ shows up on the tape’

Well, there it is.

Was yesterday (the start of) a blow-off?

Froce Index (thrust) was the largest since the IPO, trading on August 4th, of 2021.

Price action is currently (as of 11:58 a.m., EST) retreating off the highs.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Famous ‘Reversal’

August 29, 2025 By in 1929, Biotech, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Positions, SPBIO, XBI, XBI-25-03

Back in The Day

So, here we are nearly on the eve of the most significant reversal, ever:

September 3rd, 1929

That is, maybe, until now.

Today’s downside action may turn out to be just a blip; much ado about nothing.

Or it could be the harbinger of a top. Maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech sector XBI, appears to be losing steam while at the same time, being in up-thrust (potential false breakout) condition.

As of this post (12:10 p.m., EST), XBI is down -0.63%, and has posted a new daily low. Short position XBI-25-03, remains active (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll discuss this index and others over the long weekend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta’s at The Top

August 23, 2025 By in Airlines, DAL, DAL-25-03, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXX Tags: , , , , 4 Comments

Apex, Terminating Wedge

Was the Fed speech a turning point?

Remember, markets typically move in the opposite direction first after the Fed, then resume their main trend.

On Friday, markets were generally higher on interest rate hopes. It’s called ‘hope’, as the Fed’s not actually done anything.

Let’s word that more accurately. The bond market has not (yet) told the Fed to lower rates. When it does (if it does), they will follow and present their case as if they are leading the market.

Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., in a research paper, proved this point. More recently, Ed Dowd repeats the fact, link here (time stamp: 37:48).

Markets were higher, including the SOXX, covered here, and in this update, airline sector Delta (DAL).

Delta Airlines, DAL, Daily

If there’s any one chart showing why this site primarily works the short side, this is it.

The last major move was an impulse downward, taking less than three-months.

The corrective move against the trend, has so far been nearly five months in choppy overlapping action.

DAL, finished on Friday at the Fibonacci 78.6%, retrace level (not shown). Unless the market decides otherwise, we’re in a terminating wedge.

Currently short DAL, as DAL-25-03, with stop just above Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Weekend Wait

Now, the worrying starts … we can almost write the mainstream media script for the next few days.

Why will the Fed need to lower rates? Is unemployment going to continue higher? What about all the mass layoffs? How will the consumer be affected … and on and on.

As a reminder, ‘alternate’ (real) unemployment numbers are here. We’re already at 25%, Depression era levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Car Questions Answered, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, SLV, UNG, WMT, WMT-25-03

Bonds & The Economy

Not getting much attention in the media yet, is what looks like a slow (nascent), upside reversal, of long-bonds.

Here’s an excellent description of what’s going on with the yield curve, link here.

However, there’s one potential error (depending on data used), in the link above, the job market.

Real unemployment numbers can be found here.

It says, we’re already at ‘depression era’ levels of 25% unemployment.

If anyone’s skeptical of alternate numbers, the official numbers have already been proven to be ‘in-question’.

One of the best examples of ‘official’ data, or lack thereof, is this report.

What’s a million jobs or so, between friends. 🙂

With mass layoffs starting, also, here and here, that 25% number above, is likely to increase significantly.

We can even add some anecdotal evidence, link here.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

The price action of the market itself, is telling us where to go for opportunity.

Upside may still be there, if one wants to position in the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, for over eighteen months, this site’s been profitable only positioning to the short-side (UNG, the exception) and sees no reason to join the crowd buying into the A.I. mania (not advice not a recommendation).

The current focus is on WMT, a sleeper, not-doing-much, for years, that may be about to get interesting.

Currently short as WMT-25-03, with stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Negative Waves …’

April 24, 2025 By in Charles Nenner, Great Depression 2.0, Greg Hunter

Only Good News

Greg Hunter’s interview with Dr. Charles Nenner, fairly well sums up the intellect of the typical ‘investor’.

The entire 36:59-minute presentation, is worth viewing several times over.

The summation: He’s stunned the typical investor doesn’t reject the mainstream, educate themselves and develop market experience.

He just can’t figure out why ‘everyone’ just accepts the standard news following herd.

Market Cycles

The bottom line (from him), we’re in a depression-era down cycle.

That’s all there is to it.

Ignoring the facts, only wanting positive news, no ‘negative waves‘, does not fit the current market cycle (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Selling The Healthcare … Rip

April 23, 2025 By in Goldman, Great Depression 2.0, Greg Hunter, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-01, ZeroHedge Tags:

Wedge Formation

It’s a bear market; we have non-stop headline induced whipsaws, never-before seen extremes, massive downdrafts followed by (face-ripping) short covering squeezes.

Then, there’s the ‘fatigue’:

“Investor Fatigue Has Set In”: Goldman’s Desk Summarizes The Key Market Themes, link here.

Judging from the links below, the professionals (seem to) have an idea of what’s likely; the other side (the retail side), remains clueless or confused.

‘Depression Cycle Is Here’ Charles Nenner Warns “It Will Be Much Worse In 2026”, link here.

As Professional Traders Panic Sell, Retail Investors Just Can’t Stop Buying., link here.

The recent sharp recovery has shown us where to go for short-side opportunity.

One such sector, is the healthcare industry (not advice, not a recommendation).

Health Care Select Sector SPDR, XLV, Daily

The wedge is obvious.

Typical classical analysis market guidelines for wedge:

Whatever direction was the entry, that’s the (most likely) direction for exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

If there is a downside exit, we’ll discuss measured move(s) at that time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Going Short … In Style

March 10, 2025 By in Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Great Depression 2.0, ZeroHedge Tags: , , 1 Comment

Knowing When, To Be In Fashion

Out in the mainstream, they tell us the smart money (maybe, even retail) is selling, or selling short, here, here, here, here and here

There’s also recession talk, here; couple that with utter confusion, here.

Then, if we do have a ‘recession’ (or depression) it’s time to blame somebody, right?

As Dr. Elder said years ago (paraphrasing):

‘When there is a change the market, there’s a lot of turbulence before action settles into a definable trend.’

Taking everything in aggregate above, that could be where we are now.

In Style

Some of the links above, are still attempting to make a bullish argument.

For them, it’s not quite time to have a bearish stance. It’s not yet fashionable.

For this site however, every trade (453 of them) for last year, 2024 (ex. UNG), was to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

By the time, the bear has fully clawed the market (if or when), it’s most likely too late for any low-risk positioning.

One market that may be acting as a defensive move, are the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

GDXJ, is either slipping away to the downside or it’s preparing for another attempt at higher prices.

At this point (1:12 p.m., EST), the support/axis line has not been decisively penetrated to the downside, suggesting probabilities are for higher prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Before anyone gets overly bullish, let’s also keep in mind, the high print at the left of the chart in October of last year, is still below the print discussed in this post. over four years ago (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s ‘Break’ Test Dummy

January 16, 2025 By in CVNA, Great Depression 2.0 Tags: , , , ,

Time & Targets

Will it be like the old Ted Nugent song?

‘Kamikaze from the hundredth floor. Swan dive to the street.’

The last update wasn’t quite sure if we’d finished testing the trend break.

Now, with this morning’s session, there are more clues we may be getting closer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking back, this update had target(s) where price action could post before continuing the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

It was thought we’d get a rebound off the trendline. Instead, it looks like a test of the break.

No matter ‘how’ price action got to the target(s), it’s at the target. 🙂

Carvana CVNA, Daily

As of this post (11:26 a.m., EST), CVNA high for the day is 232.80, in the prior target range of ‘227 – 233’.

Today, is Fibonacci Day 34 (+1) from the all-time high posted on November 25th, last year.

If there’s going to be a reversal, price and ‘time’ requirements have been met (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adding to that, this update with Carvana (Hindenburg) ‘fundamentals’ in place.

Along with yesterday’s update, rate of economic decline increasing, it’s probable we’re nearing some type of inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Economic ‘Implosion’

January 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Great Depression 2.0, LABD, LABD-25-01, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Collapsing On Several Fronts

‘Retail’, selling silver, link here.

Jewelry whacked, link here.

Loan Shark, link here.

You know it’s bad when booze takes a hit, link here and here.

Producer prices launch higher, link here.

Lumber prices collapse, again, link here.

Travel restrictions, link here.

Then, there are ‘valuations’, link here.

Also then, there’s this, link here.

Lastly, short squeezes and liquidity traps … bear market behavior, link here.

Speaking of ‘short squeeze’, we had biotech do just that in the pre-market (and regular) session.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If it really is/was a short squeeze, once shorts are covered, the expectation is for price to continue lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Included in the chart, is a bit of insight you’re not likely to find anywhere else.

Note the distance of each retrace after a leg down. Less each time and Fibonacci multiples.

As stated yesterday, XBI posted outside down. That means price action penetrated the lows of the prior session and closed lower.

As wild as it may seem, penetrating the lows and closing lower, put XBI in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That’s what we saw with today’s action.

As this post is being created (11:45 a.m., EST), XBI action continues to erode to the downside currently trading at the 87.60 – area.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trump Predicts ‘Depression’

January 1, 2025 By in Appalachia's Homestead, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Greater Depression, Jerimiah Babe, S&P, S&P 500, SPY Tags: , ,

So, Here We Are

Looks like it’s official with a statement of the obvious, link here.

This site’s first mention of ‘depression’ likelihood, was here, over three years ago.

From that, we have this on The Great Depression:

  1. Intentional destruction of the food supply
  2. Real unemployment numbers falsified
  3. People starved to death

Of course, others have been sounding the alarm.

First mention of Jerrimiah Babe, four years ago, link here. Appalachia’s Homestead, three-years ago, link here.

Brass Tacks

So, this is where it gets real.

Starting tomorrow, January 2nd, we may see what the New Year holds.

Will we get the ‘normal’ January effect bounce or are we going to decline straight-away (not advice, not a recommendation).

Results: 2024

For the year just-ended, Three Ten Trading, LLC executed a total of 453-trades.

Every single one, except for Nat Gas, UNG were to the short side.

For the year, the S&P 500, gained approximately 25%.

The corporate account (un-audited) for the same period, posted gains well into triple-digits.

It’s important to note, this gain was achieved going short (except as noted) in an overall rising market.

What happens if or when, that market trend turns lower?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279